What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.
[Banner outside Government House, Yarralumla: “We Want Kev – The People’s PM”]
ABC suggested that these people could very well be Young Liberals and they refused to deny this.
“ran” = “Fran”
Kroger:
[This election won’t be fought on big ticket items like health and education]
How convenient. Give it a week and it will be.
Malcolm Farnsworth mfarnsworth
Banner outside Government House, Yarralumla: “We Want Kev – The People’s PM” #ausvotes 1 minute ago via TweetDeck ]
People responsible not saying who they are so could be that the Libs have put it up.
[This election won’t be fought on big ticket items like health and education]
He hopes. 😉
Allan Moyes@647
Norman Swan at a WA Friends of the ABC Luncheon 2 yrs ago actually said that the Libs were more sympatheic to funding the ABC than Labor.
I haven’t trusted him since.
Conservative RCs running both the ALP (like you Adam notwithstanding your Atheist leader) and the Coalition. Tweedledum and Tweedledee really.
Anyhoo should’t you not be wasting your time here posting your daily talking points regurgitations – better you spend your time looking for a new job – you’ll need one in about 5 weeks.
Well I must say I’m encouraged by the hate-filled far-left loony Albertross calling the election for the Libs, since he is always wrong about everything.
albatross, albatross
anyone want an albatross
😉
[Anyhoo should’t you not be wasting your time here posting your daily talking points regurgitations – better you spend your time looking for a new job – you’ll need one in about 5 weeks.]
His boss isn’t up for election remember.
Albert Ross@655
Don’t you mean you’ll have egg on your fface in 5 weeks when your hero Abbott has to give that Concession Speech and tender that Resignation letter you, TP, fredn and JV are supposed to be drafting ?
Sky News website says “Abbott takes IR off agenda” in three different places. You wish.
It seems negativity and snark is the Abbottist flavour. It will get old very quick.
Albert – I’ve won a free subs to Crikey for predicting the outcomes of a coupleFederal elections – what’s your record??
JV -VI went
Taken a fresh batch of nasty pills this morning have you VI, washed down with a pint of bile.
(I was raised an Anglican and have been an atheist since I was ten.)
Anecdotal bits and pieces – Spoke to my politically unaware sister last night who was extremely surprised when I suggested Labor might still win the election. She thought it was common knowledge they had no chance of winning.
Listening to ABC Radio, apparently in front of GG residence another banner reads “Go Girl” Game On”!
Allen and Frank – Fran Kelly was surprisingly fair this morning with Geraldine D. She said Abbott’s health policy was a dud as did Swan re the Ehealth card.
Hugh Mackay said the feeling for Gillard in the community is very good and has made a feel happy. The majority had completely turned off Kev and would have been hard to get back. Antony Green explained swing needed and seats to be won, etc. and his election site is up and running.
Actually it was a good discussion. Only sour point was Gottleibsen who not many listen to now anyway.
[(I was raised an Anglican and have been an atheist since I was ten.)]
Ten? What took you so long? 😉
dave. Hi, are you in a better mood this morning?
Albert, do you think Gillard would bother calling the election now if she thought she was headed to a definite loss?
Hi Victoria 🙂
I am in fine fettle – as usual.
Make no mistake FC I have no wish to see the Coalition win the election.
But explain to us what is the real difference between the ALP and the Coalition. The both :
– support private education over public
– will do nothing to may public health services perform better
– will do nothing but increase middle class welfare
– will do nothing to increase infrastructure spending
– will do nothing to stop the degradation of the environment
– will not give us a republic
etc etc
[And compare that to Gillard’s Dad.]
Frank – I don’t see 7. What did he say that was so impressive please.
dave, good to hear.
Albert, on most of your points the Government have already done something to move us away from the Coalition years. For instance, means testing the baby bonus, the stimulus package (increasing infrastructure spending), Garrett disapproving the Mary River dam in Queensland etc.
BH@673
He basically did a great job explaining why people should vote Labor – very clear and concise – no doubt the interview will be on the Sunrise website.
For those who wish to watch the action. ABC streaming live.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Female presenter on Channel 9 Morning Show:
[Well, it will only take 1 person in 30 to change the Government, so I think the betting odds of the Coalition at $4.00 must be wrong]
On the ‘support private education over public’ we can only hope they will do something in the next term after promising not to do anything in their first. On the Republic, it’s a peripheral issue for most. On both counts do you really expect ANY change under an Abbott Government?
Albert, other differences in policy include mining tax and the flow ons from that revenue. Parental Leave. Remember the Libs want to impose increased company tax to cover very generous payments to the already wealthy.
[so I think the betting odds of the Coalition at $4.00 must be wrong]
They’d be gospel if the odds were showing the opposite.
Although to be fair, the odds will change (for better or worse) as the campaign goes on…
glory
OMG
that is scary
[DFAT seeks to confirm Iraq fire death (AAP): Authorities are trying to determine whether any Australians are among… http]
have most of our troops left iraq and dont forget who sent us there liberal/howard
I know there won;t be change under Abbott except for the worse, but what has the ALP achieved reform wise in the last 30 months? I appreciate that they had the GFC on their plate and dealt with it appropriately enough but is that enough?
Thanks BH – I must have switched on at the wrong moment. As I said I wasn’t able to listen to it all but I did get the impression of negativity against the Govt from what I did hear, which worried me somewhat. Didn’t even know Gottliebsen was one of the interviewees. Also I was being tailgated by a semi on the freeway so perhaps that coloured my view somewhat. 🙂
[Albert, other differences in policy include mining tax and the flow ons from that revenue. Parental Leave. Remember the Libs want to impose increased company tax to cover very generous payments to the already wealthy.]
Also I’m glad the Government increased the medicare levy surcharge threshold, but would’ve preferred if they’d gotten their way completely rather than having it lowered.
Albert Ross@684
Read and learm:
http://alp.org.au/federal-government/our-key-achievements/
[Gusface
Posted Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 10:41 am | Permalink
glory
OMG
that is scary]
whats scary what the channel 9 person said was it the one who sits with okeefe
if so enough said./
[I know there won;t be change under Abbott except for the worse, but what has the ALP achieved reform wise in the last 30 months? I appreciate that they had the GFC on their plate and dealt with it appropriately enough but is that enough?]
Gotta love the double standard for some in Australian politics: For a Labor government to be worthy of re-election, they have to have solved all the nation’s problems and made everyone’s lives better, whereas all a Liberal has to do is not stuff everything up!
[I know there won;t be change under Abbott except for the worse, but what has the ALP achieved reform wise in the last 30 months?]
It’s one of the reasons why I want the ALP to get another term. To show that they can do it right next time. Personally, I think a lot of the problems were caused by Rudd and am hoping the Gillard Government will get the second term right. We can also hope that the passage of legislation might be a bit easier with a less volatile Senate.
To me, the best things the Rudd Government achieved were the same-sex law reform changes (which never would’ve happened under Howard, no matter what the Libs claim), the two national apologies (again, never would’ve happened under Howard).
I think Labor were hampered by the GFC in the way that year 2 of a Government should be when the major reforms are done. Rudd left it too late to try for the RSPT because it was much too close to an election. If they’d tried it in year 2 they might’ve had more success (but doubtful given the Senate).
I wonder how many people who voted in the last 21 August federal election will vote in this one. If you were 21 in 1943 you’re now 88, so there will be some.
[Well, it will only take 1 person in 30 to change the Government]
3.33%
Doesn’t sound that shocking considering the margin of last election.
Psephos @ 638
[People read and watch the media that tells them what they want to hear.]
By that logic, what media would you watch as a ALP supporter ?
Albert. A lot has been done just in the area of education. Apart from the BER spending on schools that are being transformed and revitalised. The Govt introduced an Education Refund payment last year which covers text books, computer equipment, stationery and the like. Now the program will be extended to cover school uniforms. For people educating their children whether in public or private schools, it is assisting greatly with costs. This impact cannot be discounted.
[Joshua Frydenberg JoshFrydenberg
At Boroondara Farmers Market this morning, strong positive sentiment towards Coalition]
Candidates always sense strong positive sentiment towards them for some reason. For instance, Mr Famer’s dummy spit post-07 election when he was upset that nobody had indicated to him any displeasure.
OK it’s nearly 11am, what’s going on? (Days like this are the rare occasions I regret not having a TV.)