The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents “conducted over the weekend” which shows Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, the same as recorded in the snap poll of 800 respondents conducted on the day Julia Gillard assumed the leadership. However, Labor has lost ground on the primary vote to the Greens, down two points to 39 per cent with the Greens up three to 14 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 42 per cent. In spite of everything, two-thirds of respondents are said to support the plan on asylum seekers announced last week by Gillard, although “about six in 10” believe the measures “were not well thought out and were rushed”. The Fairfax broadsheets should come good with a Nielsen poll later this evening.
UPDATE: The Nielsen poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, concurs on every particular except the Greens vote, which is at 13 per cent rather than 14 per cent. The sting in the tail for the government here is that it comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change. The poll has Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 56-35, little different from her 55-34 lead previously. Approval ratings for Gillard have been gauged for the first time, and they have her at 54 per cent approve and 32 per cent disapprove. Reversing the last result, Tony Abbott is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 51 per cent), the latter shift probably reflecting an unfriendly sample last time.
A series of “best party to handle” questions turns up a surprise in giving the Coalition only a very slight 44-42 lead on asylum seekers, and when the Greens are included in the mix Labor’s score shows a six point improvement since the question was last asked in March. However, Labor would be alarmed to have slipped a further three points on the economy, with the Coalition opening up a dangerous 53-39 lead. Labor has taken four points off the Coalition as best party to handle health since March, now holding a commanding 57-33 lead that goes a fair way to explaining their latest television ad. Labor retains commanding leads on education (53-36), the environment (51-35) and industrial relations (58-34).
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has Labor up slightly from 54-46 to 55-45, although the primary votes suggest rounding has a fair bit to do with the improvement: both parties are down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and Coalition to 38 per cent, with the Greens up two to 13 per cent. The supplementary questions are interesting: Julia Gillard’s mining tax changes have gone down well, supported by 50 per cent and opposed by 28 per cent, with 58 per cent rating Gillard’s handling of the issue “good” against 25 per cent “poor”. However, 41 per cent believed mining companies wielded “too much influence” in the process. The asylum seeker announcement slightly improved Labor’s position on the issue, which 56 per cent continue to think “too soft” (down 11 points) against 21 per cent for “taking the right approach” (up three), and the Coalition lead as best-party-to-handle has narrowed from 34-23 to 31-24. In spite of everything Gillard’s handling of the issue has 42 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval. Questions on the likelihood of WorkChoices being reintroduced under a Coalition government are little changed since the question was asked six weeks ago, with most believing they would and few happy about the prospect.
[as Prime Minister, do so. Big difference. The Libs have learned their lesson there. At least for now.]
sorry i really disagree with that i think once there he would do just what he wanted to do and it would be goodness help the needy the disadvantaged and the
people on disability etc o single mums
I can remember all these above where at some stage mentioned in the Howard years.
And lots more to that is not written down
TP – you are joking. I feel a lot more confident Labor will win the election now than a month ago I assure you.
Psephos
Well, I don’t. Who does? In my opinion, even an Abbott-led Coalition government would not re-introduce Workchoices.
Gary@200
Well TP is only serving his new political masters by parroting their Talking Points 🙂
[My hand hovered over the ballot for quite some time at the recent SA state election – I kept telling myself that Labor had to pay for Atkinson and Rann and all the lies and the arrogance and populism, that they needed to be taught that they couldn’t take intelligent progressives for granted – but in the end I preferenced labor ahead of the liberals. Because the liberals were (and always are) the greater of the two evils.]
The main motivations for my unhesitant vote for Rann was:
– Anger over the extremely bullshit campaign by Rick Phillips, his wife and the media to tarnish Rann’s name. Despite being a load of bullshit based on a “he said, she said” argument.
– The fact that Redmond is a total phony that had no policies and was hoping to cruise into office on the back of the aforementioned smear campaign!
[No killing people required. It’s really not a hard objective when you think about it, the key is to not allow the crews time to prepare to scuttle the boats in OUR waters.]
I give up. It’s like trying to reason with a 2yo.
[No killing people required. It’s really not a hard objective when you think about it, the key is to not allow the crews time to prepare to scuttle the boats in OUR waters.]
How many navy ships do you think need to be deployed 24/7 to achieve this?
You really are as dim as a 40W globe.
52 – 48% with a PV of 39% is a far better position to be in than 52 – 48% with a PV of 35%.
Also Gillards approval ratings and PPM are far superior to what Rudd’s were in the last couple of months.
Anyone know when the nielsen poll was taken?
TTH – how are we going to do that, seeing as though there are loads upon loads of boats swarming our borders ready to take over our country as quick as they can?
Can’t have it both ways.
[Well, I don’t. Who does? In my opinion, even an Abbott-led Coalition government would not re-introduce Workchoices.]
“Never ever.”
Anyway, that won’t be what the election will be won on. This will most certainly be a leadership election. Peppered with a few reminders of Abbott’s history when in power.
[HTT you have a high regard for Galaxy. How do you like these figures? To quote William -]
And I’ve already commented on this. I think what Gillard claimed was complete BS.
I’d 100% support Gillards plan, but the problem is I think she’s lying. Now the problem is the punters say they support what Gillard CLAIMS she will do, not what she will actuallly do. I support what she claims she will do, but I just don’t believe her and thats the problem. How can we trust Labor. Rudd said 1 day before the last election, he’d “turn back the boats” and it was a complete lie. Now Gillard reckons she’s gonna introduce the second coming of the Pacific Solution.
I’m sorry, i’m just not that gullible.
[I’m not suggesting Abbott isn’t an extremist on this issue. I’m not suggesting he doesn’t WANT to re-introduce draconian workplace laws. I am saying that he will not, as Prime Minister, do so. Big difference. The Libs have learned their lesson there. At least for now.]
The principle of WorkChoices (if not the name) is the primary motivation, in fact probably the only motivation, holding the Coalition together. Smash the working class, destroy unions, destroy the financial base of the Labor Party, and ingratiate themselves to their business backers. If not for that draconian agenda there wouldn’t be a Liberal Party.
The 57% to 43% previous Nielsen poll has been ackowledged by John Stirton to have been overcooked, especially in Victoria and represented an unnaturally big boost for the home town girl, so 52% to 48% now sounds right, and is the same as the Galaxy Poll also published tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow’s Essential Media poll says.
56% to 35% on the Preferred PM to Gillard over Abbott is also a decisively good result, and Abbott’s disapproval up 5 points to 51% is unquestionably bad for the Coalition. Also 64% now think that the ALP will win the election, up 11%.
Interestingly, there is now only a 2% differential (44% to 42%) on the question of which party is best for handling asylum seeker issues.
I wonder whether Dennis Shanahan will be back from holidays this week to dust off the ouija board in preparation for the resurrection of ‘The Ghost of Newspoll Future?’
I agree with whoever said that Gillard needs to say something solid about climate before she goes to see the GG. That’s the last brick in the wall, and the hardest.
*gone*
Meanwhile over at the Terrorgraph:
[I agree with whoever said that Gillard needs to say something solid about climate before she goes to see the GG. That’s the last brick in the wall, and the hardest.]
That’s something for tomorrow, methinks. Let it sink in, and then go to Yarralumla at the end of the week.
Kom op Nederland nederlaag Spanje zoals je deed in de Tachtigjarige Oorlog!
[Power prices set to rise AGAIN – thanks to our new Prime Minister.]
Power management is under federal jurisdiction now?
Well, not quite gone.
[The principle of WorkChoices (if not the name) is the primary motivation, in fact probably the only motivation, holding the Coalition together. Smash the working class, destroy unions, destroy the financial base of the Labor Party, and ingratiate themselves to their business backers. If not for that draconian agenda there wouldn’t be a Liberal Party.]
Absolutely correct. Smashing the unions is why the Liberal party exists. It’s their absolute basic not-negotiable principle, and also the only reason anyone gives them money. It unites the whole party from Tuckey to Troeth. If they give that up, they have nothing. So they can’t and won’t give it up. If they’re in government, even without a Senate majority, they’ll do what they can to attack the unions and the living standards of workers. And who knows what deal Browm might be willing to do with an Abbott government?
*really gone this time*
Touche.
Won’t matter anyway. Abbott simply will not win this election.
[Queensland, with 10 Labor marginal seats, is by far the worst ALP state, where it trails 45-55 in two-party terms.]
I do enjoy seeing the Labor supporters and their Labor colleges “piss” on “racist” Queensland.
Call us whatever you want, but one thing I can tell you, much like WA we are relentless.
Glen – I might muddle through your German but Dutch leaves me completely baffled. 😉
Tony Wright on Nielsen:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/gillard-poll-bounce-turns-clock-back-to-happier-april-20100711-105ml.html
TTH – it’s all about the marginals, mate.
Let’s talk again on election night after the results are in. 55-45 means nothing if the big swings are in the wrong seats.
Never forget SA 2010. 😀
[I do enjoy seeing the Labor supporters and their Labor colleges “piss” on “racist” Queensland.]
Yeah, numbers like that are going to change that view.
Queensland is a conservative state. The ALP barely passed the 50% 2PP mark in the statewide vote in 2007, despite having a QLDer leading the party.
TheTruthHurts
cn you tell me what Abbott will not
“turn back boats” what that reely means in practice:
1/ to where ?
2/ if you mean towed to non oz waters and they keep coming in at nite , do you keep towing then back outside of oz waters each mornings ?
3/ if th boats do remain in non oz waters , how do th boat peoples themselves not then die ? (seeing they hav no water & food) ?
[55-45 means nothing if the big swings are in the wrong seats.]
If the 2PP popular vote is that big, a marginal campaign would probably still fail.
In answer to an earlier question
[But the poll of 1400 voters, taken from Thursday night to Saturday evening…]
[Glen – I might muddle through your German but Dutch leaves me completely baffled.]
FACT: Dutch is not a real language. It’s just a big conspiracy theory by the Dutch to confuse foreigners!
[Call us whatever you want, but one thing I can tell you, much like WA we are relentless.]
Gormless, more like.
No doubt Gillard will win, the betting markets are showing the Libs over $4 bucks to win now.
What annoys me is that I just don’t believe Gillard will actually do what she claims to do. She’s doing a Rudd impersonation circa-2007, but I fear we’ll end up with yet another Rudd Dudd 2010. I’m not too sure what Labor stands for, they are all over the shop. The Labor supporters in here seem to be in lock step with whatever is says by Gillard from now until election day, but are you Labor supporters actually in agreement, or do you think Labors just playing silly buggers to get over the line? I’d really like to know
Tony Wright receives warm applause from me for this comment in the paper that publishes the poll:
[Indeed, the party’s primary vote of 39 per cent has dropped 8 percentage points since the snap Age/Nielsen poll taken amid the nation’s astonishment at waking to discover itself with its first female prime minister. Best, perhaps, to write that off as a “rogue” survey.]
Well done Tony – “rogue” survey it was and well done for the honest call.
Maybe turning back the boats without drownings would involve taxpayer funded life jackets and life rafts?
from the Politics section of the OO:
#234
that does not anwer my #227 Q’s to Truth Hurts at all
lets not make lite of what i asked
Julia’s dad has this to say on the election date:
“”The commentariat have decided it’s August 28, and I don’t like to argue with the commentariat.”
There you have it.
236
It was not a response for your question but slightly ludicrous answers to point out the absurdity of turn them back but don`t let them drown.
Tom Hawkins (233),
That’s true. However the poll he poll he does compare it with was itself anomalous according to every other (public) survey at the time.
Psephos@220: And who knows what deal Browm might be willing to do with an Abbott government?
On industrial relations? The Greens are well to the left of Labor on industrial relations, and you know it. Unless that deal with Abbott involves something like abolishing the ABCC, it’s pure fantasy on your part.
Come on, Adam. You can’t accuse the Greens of being surrogate Communists one week and Liberal stooges the next – make up your damn mind.
#238
understand motive , but my 3 #227 Q’s NEVER get answered by Truthhurts or Abbott , and they keep gitting away with it
‘turn back boats’ is a empty slogan , asbout time people explained in actual practice wht that means to suport there view
[The Greens are well to the left of Labor on industrial relations, and you know it.]
They’re also supposed to be well to the left of the Coalition on climate change, yet in the Senate Greens voted with denialists such as Bernardi, Minchin, Joyce and Abetz against an emissions trading scheme – the most profound environmental legislation ever put before an Australian Parliament.
[232
HurtsTheTruth
No doubt Gillard will win, the betting markets are showing the Libs over $4 bucks to win now.
What annoys me is that I just don’t believe Gillard will actually do what she claims to do.]
You should be happy now, HTT. The hysterical over-cooking of this issue by the Liberals has produced a new consensus: A-S will not be admitted into Australia without first being detained elsewhere. Both sides of politics are now committed to an expensive over-reaction, mostly thanks to the fraudulent politics of Abbott and Morrison. Congratulations, you had a hand in this stupidity.
[comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change.]
Hang on a sec.When this poll came out there was no mention of it being ‘quirky’. In fact in answer to some people’s querying of it, William, you said:
[Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error.]
So when did it become quirky?
[Congratulations, you had a hand in this stupidity]
Badge of Honour, Briefly, Badge of Honour …
Cuppa@242
And what about if St Bob agrees to unions being banned as a group from donating to the ALP in exchange to some sort of token spending which will benefit the Environment ?
Think Meg Lees and what bought her vote re the sale of Telstra.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/21/1079789938931.html?from=storyrhs
Of course, there is an upside to the nonsensical over-hyping of the A-S story: it helped provoke the end of Rudd’s leadership. This is a win-win situation. It is a win for the country; a win for Labor….and of course it will foil the Liberals. If there is anyone whose boat has been turned around by these events, it is Tony Abbott’s.
[So when did it become quirky?]
When no other poll backed it up. However, I’ll grant you that I was probably wrong to say the Victorian component of the previous poll shouldn’t have sounded a note of caution.
Tomorrow’s OO Proper:
[So when did it become quirky?]
As I, and many others, said when such polls were published, any poll that is released in the first few weeks – especially ones that favour Labor heavily, should be taken with a grain of salt.
The tears are dry and the cheers silent. Polling is looking more sensible now!