Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.

A bit of federal news:

• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).

Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.

• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.

New South Wales news:

• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.

• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

  1. Mytwobobsworth at 1003,

    Are you certain that your grandfather died on the 1st of February, the date that you entered into Wikipedia? According to the Hansard of 20 February 1980 he died on the 4th of February.

    2 DEATH OF FORMER MEMBER (MR D. J. CURTIN): Mr Speaker informed the House of the death, on 4 February 1980, of Mr Daniel James Curtin, a Member of this House for the Division of Watson from 1949 to 1955 and the Division of Kingsford-Smith from 1955 to 1969. As a mark of respect to the memory of the deceased all Members present stood, in silence.

  2. Latest on the all important betting:

    – The last time I commented on the betting the prices were ALP 1.30 / LIB 3.85.

    – The real current market reads ALP into 1.26 and LIB out to 4.00.

    – Some agencies are keeping Julia safe at 1.25 and one agency is offering 4.10 for the nutty monk. This implies that so far the biggest bets recorded have been for Labor.

    – Despite the constant no shame attacks on the East Timor solution by the MSM, I am tipping no movement to Abbott in the next Newspoll. 😛

  3. al palster asked,

    As the election draws nigh – and as a matter of pure academic interest – are you able to quantify the impact of this site on political decisions and discourse.]

    And William answered,

    [Sure can – 0. Or if you’d like another decimal place’s worth of precision on that – 0.0.]

    I’d have to agree with that response, almost completely.

    There is a view on this blog that what is discussed here is examined intensively by those in the political world, especially the media, which helps to inform their view of the world – this is not the case.

    Whenever I’ve raised this site with anyone in the political world, very few have even heard of the site, let alone visit it regularly. In my experience, they’re all far too busy.

    What has happened, however, is that the blogosphere has occasionally irritated the odd member of the media, but it’s usually because that member has been informed, by a friend or colleague, of an analysis or a diatribe that criticises them and then has followed the occasional over reaction. But that’s about it.

    None of that detracts from the value of the site or of the quality of the more thoughtful posts. It is a good site and serves well those who visit it.

    But it is best not to over estimate its impact and William’s in-depth 0.0% analysis, although perhaps a little on the low side, is pretty well on the mark.

    In the end it’s basically irrelevant which members of the political world may or may not visit the site. The site is for its users to participate, be informed, discuss and enjoy. Yes, even spend an afternoon making egg puns!

  4. Kersebleptes asked

    ‘Who wove the baskets.’
    Not sure but it could have been some people in Balmain?
    OTOH, very likely, it was some locals. With peasants, the tendency was for things to be made close to where they to be used.
    As a sidelight, on my grandfather’s farm, they used to outsource the scything. Of course he was a kulak-equivalent, so he was lucky he wasn’t somewhere to the east where kulaks did not do well.

  5. Just checking some recent posts on the betting. The present market cannot be compared with the market of one day before an election. The market should be compared at a similar cycle of the election.

    The 1.26 for the ALP and the 4.00 for the Libs compares very favourably to the 2004 election. Therefore Abbott’s chances of winning the election now are very similar to Latham’s.

  6. [Akermanis is a Latvian name, and Latvian is not related to the Germanic languages, so there’s unlikely to be any etymological connection.]

    I was referring to the connection of them both being idiots, as opposed to an etymological connection 😉

  7. Adam Abdool
    On Wiki
    [Born in Wewak, Papua New Guinea, Piers Akerman was raised in Perth by his parents, John, an Australian Government doctor, and Eve Akerman (d. 2003), a newspaper columnist and reviewer in Western Australia.[1] He is the third son in a family of four children.[1] The family left PNG for India in 1951, before returning to Australia.[1]

  8. I very much doubt we will see a Monday Newspoll. They will want clean air, becuase Neilsen will be out tomorrow.

    I reckon a normal Tuesday Newspoll is a certainty.

  9. Polling will show Green swinging votes move away from JG by 2-4% & back to the greens 13% or slightly more, that trend will keep going till it reaches about 16% in the last days of the election back to where Rudd was in his final days.

  10. Boerwar,

    Yes. Balmain-manufactured baskets might be rejected out there!

    Of course he was a kulak-equivalent…

    Ah, more akkers than the norm. I’ve played a bit with some proper farm scythes- they are incredibly effective tools when they’re sharp, but I can’t imagine doing akkers with one. Akers possibly…

  11. Adam
    If you google his name up & go into wikipaedia have a look at the controversy section. Especially the section on the assault of Natasha Stott Despoja’s mum.

  12. Just further to post 1105.

    I believe that Latham was actually ahead of Howard in the polls as in contrast to Abbott being behind Gillard at the same election cycle, yet both are roughly at the same odds of winning the election.

    It goes to show that the betting is more important than the polls. 😀

  13. The most interesting thing tomorrow will be the Asylum question that Neilson asked twice. Once Lab v Lib, the last “and returning to asylum seekers” was Lab, Lib or Green.

    This will tell us the number of Lab or Lib voters who are against their party policy on the issue and if the Green policy has any traction.

  14. Thinking about the election announcement timing.

    Fromelles is being dedicated on 19th July. Gillard (and Abbott, and I assume Bryce also) won’t be back in the country until 21st July at earliest (and that assumes no photo-op stopover in Afghanistan on the way back; bet Gillard wishes she could ditch Abbott for that leg :evil:)

    If she waits to announce the election to after her return, then the earliest election is the 28th August (since writs for 21st August must be issued no later than the 19th July).

    If she announces the election before Fromelles, it could be on the 21st August (writs issued no later than 19th July – I assume by the acting GG).

    Such an announcement probably needs to done before this Friday (preferably Thursday at the latest), to avoid a slightly unseemly, undignified look of announcing the election and the next minute hopping on a plane to dedicate a war cemetery – there should be a day or 2 gap at least. Plus with the closing of the electoral roll on the day of writs being issued, there is not much time to get those youngsters enrolled by Monday if she waits too late this week.

    So I reckon a 21st August election if announced by this Wednesday (or Thursday at the latest), or a 28th August or later election if announced on her return from Fromelles (+Afghanistan?). Or if the government wants a long period to get youngsters enrolled and campaign, announce a 28th August election this week before Fromelles, and don’t issue writes till late next week sometime, on return.

  15. Thanks, Dee..

    Well, I give up. I have no explanation for his extreme views or for that matter his extreme bias in reporting. In terms of his profession he is an absolute disgrace.

  16. [i dont think anyone is expecting Labor to win in Dickson.]

    Au contraire, I think it’s the general expectation. Dutton has shown his affection for the good folk of Dickson by trying to escape from them, and I’m sure he’s still hoping that Peter Sleeper or Alex Somnolent will retire at the last minute so that he can do a runner to a safer seat. The seat has a notional Labor majority on the new boundaries and is continuing to urbanise, and it has a good Labor candidate in Fiona McNamara who has been working the seat now for four years. Sportingbet has Dutton at 1.95 vs Labor at 1.85.

  17. Kersebleptes

    Cf scythes, same here. They remind me of Indigenous implements – honed over the centuries, fantastically organic and ergonic shapes, beautiful, and very, very efficient.

    In one of the Pride and Prejudice movies, there is a shot of, I believe, a carriage entrance to Pemberly and there is an extra with a scythe in one of the fields, presumably to get the idealic bucolic feeling. The clot was trying ineffectually to use the scythe as a rake.

    I howled with outrage.

  18. [Do the Green’s have an AS policy?]

    Their policy is that anyone arriving at an Australian border and claiming to be an asylum seeker must be given a visa and released “into the community”, there to be maintained at taxpayer expense for ever.

  19. [Do the Green’s have an AS policy?]

    Dee, this sums it up.

    [“Give me your tired, your poor,

    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” ]

  20. GhostWhoVotes @ 1101

    Just checked my family tree and you are correct. Apologies.

    Birth date 14th of February is correct.

    Many thanks

  21. [Do the Greens have an AS policy?]

    Yes they do and it is a beauty 😆

    If Labor adopted it they would be finished as a political party.

  22. Centre, have you seen the Possum today on differences between SportsBet and SportingBet on the seat by seat markets? Worth a read and a punt I think (I’ve just put money on a couple of seats myself).

    Meanwhile I am still tipping October not August for the election – I don’t think they want to have a mandate for the existing CPRS, hence no double dissolution, hence October works and it gives two more months for schools that are polling places to turn from building sites into having nice new facilities open . Thoughts anyone?

  23. [ If you google his name up & go into wikipaedia have a look at the controversy section. ]

    According to that he is a lecherous violently abusive drug hoovering climate change denier. That must be on a good day.

  24. Once the media expectation for an election has built up, it becomes hard to resist the pressure. If she doesn’t go in August the “what’s she afraid of?” meme will start to appear.

  25. [Akermanis is a Latvian name, and Latvian is not related to the Germanic languages, so there’s unlikely to be any etymological connection.]

    The upper class in Latvia used to be ethnically German (before the revolution and the population transfers after the Nazi-Soviet Pact). Maybe the Akermanis name does have a German origin.

  26. The clot was trying ineffectually to use the scythe as a rake.

    “I’m sorry, Director sir. I tried to hold it by the metal bit- but I kept cutting my fingers…”

  27. Not all of October has holiday issues ruawake – at least if I am reading Anthony Green’s chart properly – there are holidays in the first couple of weeks but that actually helps the later dates on my theory by giving BER builders a clear go at finishing and site cleanup

  28. Lao and MM

    (1) For October there would have to be a recall of parliament. This gives the mischief makers in the Senate further opportunities to make mischief.
    (2) By October they could probably stitch up an agreement with Timor and set a timeline for building the regional processing centre.
    (3) They will probably gain further collatoral damage from the Qld and NSW state governments.
    (4) Interest rates will continue to rise.
    (5) There is a prospect of a double dip recession with the consequent impact on commodities prices and hence to the levels of revenue.

  29. Good points Boerwar but
    (1) involves Julia v Tony in the Reps which will be better TV than anything in the Senate?
    (2) could be a media/electoral positive for waiting?
    (3) yes except I have a perverse theory that the closer the NSW election gets the more people will realise they don’t need to lodge a protest vote against the Feds to get rid of the State government
    (4) and (5) rather balance each other out? I haven’t seen all that much evidence for threat of a double dip here as opposed to Europe anyway and did not find whichever MSM analysis it was saying Julia had to go now before the economy tanked very persuasive…

    Also Julia does keep saying there is more governing to do

  30. OK. Time for today’s score.

    Bob Brown is using the deaths of Australian servicemen to raise the temperature on the Afghanistan war. This is no doubt to try to get some of the soft green/labour folk to flip back to the Greens again.

    Gillard&Co are still on the defensive in relation to A/S. The latest twist – that the Government will not commit to a regional processing centre being in place within the life of the next Government is dopey. To improve their ‘humane’ meme, the Opposition has announced that it will no longer be charging asylum seeking detainees the cost of their detention. I don’t actually know why they bother, unless they have identified a non-bogan, doctor’s wife type of voter who might be lulled into thinking that they are not into ayslum-seeking bastardry. Perhaps that is why they are trying to run two lines.

    Neither Gillard nor Abbott visible today. Good for Abbott. Bad for Gillard.

    Ergo, because asylum seekers are still on the agenda and because Labor is still dealing with own goals, today is a win for Abbott – two points.

    Cumulative scores on day five: Abbott six points; Gillard 4 points.

  31. MM

    The state of the world’s economy is a huge risk factor for Gillard.

    What a lot of Australians do not understand is that Europe is China’s second-biggest export market. If there is a double dip it will almost certainly be triggered by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. This has not gone away. It has been papered over temporarily. Efforts to deal with it through austerity measures are extreme – British government departments are trying to work out how to deliver budget cuts of up to 40%.

    OTOH, the US cannot indefenitely pump prime. The awful thing at the moment is that they are printing money like nobody’s business and it has barely touched employment rates and it has yet to fix their housing mess.

  32. ruawake, I thought the Vic parliament dissolution was 2 November? thus leaving 16 and 23 October clear for the Federal election.

    Not a Victorian so probably I don’t understand the system there…

  33. [Ergo, because asylum seekers are still on the agenda and because Labor is still dealing with own goals, today is a win for Abbott – two points.]

    You can’t possibly “score” a day until you’ve watched the commercial TV news. That’s where the voters get their news from.

  34. [The state of the world’s economy is a huge risk factor for Gillard.]

    The onset of GFC II would be good for Labor. Gillard (grave expression): “the only reason we do not have 10% unemployment like the rest of the world is the BER and other stimulus spending by the Labor government, which Mr Abbott opposed.” World = recession, Australia = no recession. The campaign writes itself.

  35. Boerwar: Fair point about the importance of Europe to China and thus to Australia. But even if things start to turn nasty, is that necessarily a pure negative for the government’s electoral chances? Not that long ago these and other pages were full of people talking about how the public had already forgotten about the GFC and thus why Abbott and co were getting away with a narrative about government spending being wasteful and unnecessary.

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