Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA

The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA”

Comments Page 2 of 55
1 2 3 55
  1. confessions

    [WTF?]

    Agree! Did she mention Gillard’s capacity to do the job or the fact that anyone male or female can aspire to the highest job in the land????
    It just goes to show that for all the chest beating about society advancing beyond such issues, the reality is we haven’t really advanced at all.

  2. [That we are on the verge of electing and atheist woman living in a defacto relationship with a hairdresser, is freakin fantastic, as a situation am not sure it is possible to get more removed from the JWH days.]
    Julia vs JWH
    Tim vs Hyacinth

    Two clear winners there.

  3. I see the miners have extended their deadline to the following weekend now. I think the reality of the situation is now hitting home. If they’re not careful they may lose the public completely.

  4. [only that, if the Liberals can’t pick up seats in Coalition-friendly WA, then where will they do so in sufficient numbers to make a difference to the election outcome?]

    The reason they can’t expect to pick up a large number of seats in ‘Coalition-friendly WA’ is that the ALP already did poorly there in 2007. Mentioning the failure to ‘capitalise’ in WA is largely irrelevant.

    An extremely poor performance in WA would put the ALP in a very awkward position in the Senate though.

  5. The problem with Richardson’s position, that it was the RSPT that killed Rudd, is that Rudd’s freefall began last October, long before the RSPT. In fact if Rudd’s slide was issues-based, then we would have to argue that it was the CPRS that was the problem, since that was the dominant issue at the time. But I don’t think it was issues-based. I think it was Rudd-based.

  6. [Maybe it shouldn’t be, but in the electorate it’s mostly about the PM. ]

    Actully – I think this attitude has developed over recent years (esp since JWH ascended) and I think it is primarily media driven.

  7. So Psephos,

    When Julia’s vote drops to Rudd’s levels (~52-48) the ALP will then shift to another leader, NSW-style.

    Worked once for Iemma. Seems to have worked this time for Julia.

    It sets a pretty low threshold.

  8. [Someone should tell Abbott that cancelling the NBN won’t help him much with finding his $47bn savings because most of it’s not part of the budget.]

    He was told as soon as his troops put the idea forward — they just don’t GET it.

  9. [I see the miners have extended their deadline to the following weekend now. I think the reality of the situation is now hitting home. If they’re not careful they may lose the public completely.]

    Yep Gary — that newspaper ‘threat’ was the wrong move IMHO. Whether it originated with the mining companies or it was the MSM trying to stir the pot appears debatable.

    Right now the electorate is thinking of her as ‘Our Julia’ and the miners have the audacity to start threatening her a few days after she takes over? Silly. Silly. Silly.

  10. [When Julia’s vote drops to Rudd’s levels (~52-48) the ALP will then shift to another leader, NSW-style.]

    If Labor’s primary vote drops and stays in the low 30s and Gillard reaches a -20 net approval rating I think her days would be numbered too.

  11. [When Julia’s vote drops to Rudd’s levels (~52-48) the ALP will then shift to another leader, NSW-style.]

    We’ve been over this. If the 52% Newspoll had reflected reality, Rudd would probably have been safe. But it didn’t, because it was based on unsound assumptions about Green and “other” preferences. The headline figure concealed the fact that Labor was heading for a thumping everywhere except Vic and Tas, and furthermore that Rudd himself was the principal cause of that.

  12. I notice Christine Wallace comments have not received any oxygen.
    Didn’t she say on Q&A that within an hour of Gillard taking over the PM’s job a senior Liberal told her they had grave concerns over the Rabbott’s leadership.

  13. The MSM has an obsession with the approval ratings. That has taken the focus away from the govt and placed it squarely upon the personalities.

    In the current climate, that is very good for the govt as Julia is seen in a completely different light to what Rudd was and what Abbott is.

    This is where the media and coalition overplayed their hand. Whilst Rudd was PM they cold use that t destabilise. Julia would need to commit murder for her personal app rating to to dip enough to make a difference — meanwhile Abbtt continues to languish.

  14. The besmircching of Rudd reputation and integritiy continues unabated. First Richardson and now Psephos. Rudd has to be a bastard otherwise the narrative for destroying a PM just doesn’t work.

    Possum’s latest offering clersly shows labor in an election winning position with the campaign to come.

    ‘Under all three preference scenarios, Rudd’s final week of polls had him in an election winning lead, despite the huffing and puffing of lightweights to the contrary.

    That would make Rudd the first PM dumped by his party in Australia with that status as far as I can tell. I had a quick squiz to see if any other leader of a western democracy of late has been in that position and I can’t find one. If anyone can, let us know!’

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/29/the-post-spill-polling-roundup/#more-8223

  15. [I notice Christine Wallace comments have not received any oxygen.
    Didn’t she say on Q&A that within an hour of Gillard taking over the PM’s job a senior Liberal told her they had grave concerns over the Rabbott’s leadership.]
    Very good point, Dee. I sat up straight when I heard her say that. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though, waiting to see it followed up in the MSM.

  16. itep @ 56

    You seem to have a comprehension disability – I did not say, nor imply that the Liberals could pick up ‘a large number of seats in WA’ considering the ALP hold only 4 or 15 Federal seats in WA now, nor did I use the word ‘capitalise.’

    The point I am labouring to try and make is that electoral conditions in WA favour the Coalition, and have done for some years for a variety of local and national reasons, so if they can’t make inroads there, then where can they realisticly expect to make up the deficit of seats required to win the election?

    Qld and NSW may provide some gains, although on these polling trends that may also be doubtful, but those gains, if they occur, may be offset by gains in Victoria and SA, resulting in a status quo election outcome, or even a slight gain to the ALP.

    At least read what I have said, and please refrain from rewording my posts to your convenience.

  17. If the Libs had a credible alternative to Abbott, he’d be in serious trouble. But they don’t. They’re now paying the price for filling up their benches with Howard potplants and not forcing their veterans to retire.

  18. The reason why Abbott got the leadership was because, when it came down to it, they knew they wouldn’t win the next election.

  19. Confessions #43

    Who’s “Bettina Arndt” these days?

    O, you mean that Bettina? The feminist lefty 60s-70s torchcarrier for women’s right and “liberalised” lifestyles? Of Forum liberated sex-ed zine John Gorton let everyone read? Contemporary (& IMO somewhat jealous) of Germaine Greer & Lillian Roxon (Nicola’s aunt).

    The one who was kidnapped by alien sex maniacs who switched her with a MidLife Crisis AntiFeminist pop-shrink who wanted to A Girlie, with a trad woman’s lifestyle? Actually rather liked Howard?

    Kidnapped by aliens, I tell you!

  20. [They’re now paying the price for filling up their benches with Howard potplants and not forcing their veterans to retire.]
    Psephos
    Does that suggest Bronny is a Venus Fly Trap?

  21. Rudd became increasingly paranoid & isolated because he was being slowly done over from within.
    The move on Rudd started a long time ago as party hacks leaked to the media snippets of gossip, either untrue or out of context.
    I still maintain it was always about the ETS. Mining influence prompted the Coalition to ditch Turnbull & it was the mining influence that prompted the slow orchestrated character assassination of a popular PM. Much harder to depose someone so popular, hence came the leaks over a long time to the right wing media recognising they would give it the most mileage.
    Now, all and sundry are working their butts off to discredit him further. This should ensure that anything he does divulge will get zero air space.

    Psephos

    Who leaked the shelving of the ETS to the media before Rudd could put it to caucus?

  22. I guess this is a polling site but the main argument of Rudd’s supporters is that the polls were not that bad and he may have won. Therefore Labor should have kept him. This misses the fundamental point – the MSM may have its biases but it was getting the facts across- the government was dysfunctional with ministers being outside the loop while the PM was making presidential style decisions. Even worse he was either uninterested or unable to argue for those decisions. The result was that the opposition was using him as a punching bag and he was seen as aloof and arrogant by the public. As Harold Mitchell said on Q&A he may have been an administrator but he was no leader. Sure he may have won but would that have helped the process of good governance?

  23. [At least read what I have said, and please refrain from rewording my posts to your convenience.]

    I did reread what you said. I don’t agree with the conclusions you seem to draw.

    [The point I am labouring to try and make is that electoral conditions in WA favour the Coalition, and have done for some years for a variety of local and national reasons, so if they can’t make inroads there]

    Well it’s hard to make major inroads somewhere you already had a comparably good result in the previous election. 53.26% of the 2PP was pretty good for the Coalition in WA in 2007. Increasing their vote by just above 1% (if this poll were true) would be a fairly good result again for them and one they couldn’t hope to do much better than.

    You’d imagine increasing your vote from an already high level would be tougher to do than increasing it from a low level (like it was in the rest of Australia). Would it not be reasonable to expect a smaller pro-Liberal swing in the 2010 election than the rest of the country?

    How much better would the Coalition need to be performing in WA for you to conclude that they stood a chance in the rest of Australia?

  24. If the Libs had a credible alternative to Abbott, he’d be in serious trouble. But they don’t.

    Aw, c’m on Psephos. KAndrews, BBishop, Dutton, Ruddock … Surely they deserve a turn.

    You should be out there peddling a push for Dutton. Bright young Future of the Liberal Party & all that. Or, now Victorians have the PMship within grasp after 27 years, Kevin Andrews. Now there’s a towering torch of brilliance, vivacity & broad-mindedness!

    No credible alternative to Abbott?

    SHAME!

  25. [No credible alternative to Abbott?]
    If the Coalition loses any more seats this time around it will effectively move further to the right as the “old stagers” who are on relatively large margins will stay.
    How can such a right wing rump then attract good stock more aligned to the centre?

  26. Bettina Arndt is a bit like Bronny — past her use by date and therefore irrelevant.

    The thing is — people (read MSM) ask their opinions. Just like they ask Richo and Van Onselen (who should have remained an academic because a TV presenter he ain’t and as an academic his personal views shouldn’t be on show to all and sundry).

    Christine Wallace is a Gillard insider, so she’ll be asked a lot too.

  27. Oakeshott,

    “May have won”. No Party has ever lost from the position Rudd Labor were in at the time of the leadership change.

    All those abused and terrified MPs. That Rudd was an absolute bastard! I just wonder how they all made it throught the argy bargy of union life and Labor pre selections when they are such precious wall flowers.

  28. [Mining influence prompted the Coalition to ditch Turnbull & it was the mining influence that prompted the slow orchestrated character assassination of a popular PM.]

    I’d have thought it was the large numbers of sceptics in the party room and particularly in the Senate party room, plus the strong sceptical feelings of the party base. I was just talking to an otherwise reasonable Liberal Party member the other day about climate change and he was foaming at the mouth about how such and such study has disproven climate change forever. This same person supports the RPST.

  29. Having said that dumping Rudd was an unneccessary overreaction it has clearly paid off with the polls, media cyle and lifted a lot of the strange malaise hanging over the place.

    I am still dissappointed that the ALP continue to have no climate policy and I expect them to reannounce some window-dressing solar and wind technology announceables before the election.

    Australia continues to be an international climate pariah under both the Liberal and Labor governments. There is no signal whatsoever that that is likely to change.

  30. GG, you seriously need to get over this. No-one is besmirching Rudd’s integrity. He is probably the most squeaky-clean leader Australia has ever had. The issue was the collapse in his public standing. His approval rating fell from 62% in October to 36% in May. He was no longer capable of leading on climate, on the mining tax, on anything, because he was no longer communicating. A leader to whom the electorate will not listen is finished.

  31. Dutton might be bright but he lacks eloquence. Roxon wiped the floor with him at the Drs debate. The fact that the coalition have NO coherent policies to espouse doesn’t help.

  32. [A leader to whom the electorate will not listen is finished.]

    Personally, I would rather have been officially rejected by 112 people than the entire electorate at an election. And ultimately, Rudd chose not to stand in the party room. Courageous but also realistic.

    Time to get over it people.

  33. Also GG, you are misreading what Possum said. His conclusion: “As we can see, once we account for the expected variation of the swings and polling uncertainty, the ALP was indeed in very real danger of losing an election were one held over the last three months and the result was compatible with the complete polling aggregates.”

  34. I am pretty sure that the Libs cant have a spill unless they are back in Canberra for parliament.

    A good reason for Julia to call an early election to lock in a battle with Tony rather than Scott Morrison.

  35. Psephos,

    That Rudd was prepared to make the tough reformist initiatives is the reason for the decline and he still had time to turn it around. The compromise with the Miners was apparently all ready to go on Friday. Gillard only read out Rudd’s press release.

    BTW read Possum’s analysis and you’ll see Labor was in an election winnig position before Gillard, so the tosh about ‘collapse in public standing” doesn’t bear scrutiny.

    I’ll get over it when the faction hacks and other self aggrandisers stop bashing Rudd. He is the only Labor Leader to win a Federal election for an awful long time.

  36. [A good reason for Julia to call an early election to lock in a battle with Tony rather than Scott Morrison.]

    Scott Morrison would be even more disastrous. Nobody knows who he is and he wouldn’t be able to cut through at all during an election campaign. Labor would bury him.

  37. GG, maybe Rudd would have won, but from the point of view of the party, why take the chance when you have a better prospect?

  38. [When Julia’s vote drops to Rudd’s levels (~52-48) the ALP will then shift to another leader, NSW-style.

    Worked once for Iemma. Seems to have worked this time for Julia.

    It sets a pretty low threshold.]

    I don’t think so. Rudd was a free agent, that is why they got rid of him at the first request of union & corporate heavies, when polls made it appear more palatable, and then commenced on this character denigration program as a means of justification after the event.

    Julia is a factional animal, so they will stick with her all the way to 50/50 so long as she doesn’t cross the wrong factional corporate lines.

  39. [Australia continues to be an international climate pariah under both the Liberal and Labor governments. ]

    That’s just nonsense. I’m very disappointed (and angry) at the impasse over climate that was revealed at Copenhagen. But the blame for that rests about equally with China and the US, though for different reasons. Australia is an extremely minor player in world climate politics. Rudd’s role at Copenhagen was seen as very constructive, but he was shut out of the final power-plays, because ultimately Australia is too small to matter.

    That’s a different question to getting our domestic policy in order. I remind you again that we would now have an ETS framework in place had the Greens not voted with the climate denialists last December to sink the CPRS. As a result, we can’t do anything until next July at the earliest.

  40. itep @ 77

    You seem to be willfully disregarding, or are unaware of the previously published Westpoll that only 2 weeks had the TPP at 62% to 38% to the Coalition – it may have escaped your notice, but the ALP replaced their leader last week, and the latest Westpoll shows a large swing back to the ALP.

    That is the backdop to the current situation, so in answer to your question:

    [How much better would the Coalition need to be performing in WA for you to conclude that they stood a chance in the rest of Australia?]

    My answer is – where they were in WA polling 2 weeks ago before Kevin Rudd was replaced as ALP leader.

    That is no longer the situation, so on all the evidence currently available to us, the Coalition will struggle to even hold the line on their current Parliamentary representation, let alone win enough seats to form a Government.

  41. [I remind you again that we would now have an ETS framework in place had the Greens not voted with the climate denialists last December to sink the CPRS. As a result, we can’t do anything until next July at the earliest.]

    The Greens have also signalled a similar tactic for the RPST by saying that if it is altered too much in the negotiatoins they will oppose it. We could get a very similar situation to the CPRS whereby the Coalition and Greens combine to vote it down for different reasons.

  42. Itep 92,

    Like it or not Scott Morrisson killed Rudd over the asylum seeker issue.

    He has the ability to put forward very conservative policies without sounding overly extreme.

    I am not saying he would win but he would be worth one or two points over Tony (at least in his honeymoon phase).

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 55
1 2 3 55