Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47, but it makes that vote share a lot less dependent on hypothetical and probably over-generous preference estimates. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 53 per cent to 29 per cent, compared with Kevin Rudd’s final figures of 46 per cent and 37 per cent. Tony Abbott can at least take heart from a return to a net positive personal rating, with approval up four to 42 per cent and disapproval down eight to 41 per cent.

Preselection news:

• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports from “senior party sources” that Labor polling in Melbourne showed the Greens running neck and neck with Lindsay Tanner. On the question of Tanner’s successor as Labor candidate, Andrew Crook from Crikey reports there is “little standing in the way” of Andrew Giles, chief-of-staff to state minister Lily D’Ambrosio. Giles is secretary of the Socialist Left faction, which dominates local branches. However, Melissa Fyfe’s sources say they are hoping to find someone with a higher profile. Other possible contenders are ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell, who according to Crook is “said to be owed a shot at pre-selection after being turned down for the ACTU presidency in favour of Ged Kearney”, and refugee activist Paris Aristotle. UPDATE: VexNews reports the Socialist Left has endorsed Cath Bowtell, with Andrew Giles agreeing not to run, and that Bowtell’s endorsement by the party is now a fait accompli.

• Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce, has won Liberal National Party preselection for the new Queensland seat of Wright, after initial nominee Hajnal Ban was forced out. Most prominent among his defeated rivals was former Blair MP Cameron Thompson.

UPDATE: Essential Research has done what it needed to do by dividing its results between this week’s polling and last week’s, and it confirms the overall picture. Kevin Rudd was on a gentle recovery trend in his last days – his final poll shows Labor improving from 51-49 to 52-48, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 38 per cent and the Coalition’s down one to 40 per cent – followed by a fillip on the primary vote under Julia Gillard. Interestingly, the Greens vote fell solidly over both periods, from 14 per cent to 11 per cent and then to 9 per cent. Labor’s primary vote under Gillard has gone from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, with the Coalition’s down one to 39 per cent. Forty-seven per cent approve of the leadership change compared with 40 per cent opposed, with an even split as to whether respondents declared themselves more (26 per cent) or less (24 per cent) likely to vote Labor now. Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49 per cent to 29 per cent, but Newspoll’s resounding improvement in Abbott’s ratings is also reflected in Essential, with his approval up five to 40 per cent and disapproval down 11 to 39 per cent. Again, respondents would prefer a full term (41 per cent) to an early election (28 per cent). There are further questions on parental leave, the mining tax and future economic conditions.

UPDATE 2: Excellent post by Possum analysing polling trends of the late Rudd epoch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,187 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Abbott cant beat Gillard.
    He may have taken Rudd in a shock result (but I still thought Rudd would prevail).
    Turnbull has a better chance against Julia Gillard IMHO.

    Still waiting for Howard memoirs….

  2. [Yes, it was brutal and I feel sorry for Rudd, but let’s be frank, the way things were going, Abbott was all set to win before the change was made.]
    I just don’t know. Politics changes so fast these days, who knows what would’ve happened?

  3. Thomas @1086, the real question is will the restoration of normality take us to 52.x levels and see us with much the same number of seats, or will it bounce back to the more normal (over the past 3 years) level of 54+. Which would be a real humiliation for Abbott and all that he stands for. Fingers crossed.

  4. [I agree, I would be more worried about Labor losing to the Liberals with Turnbull as leader than with Abbott as leader.]

    I can’t see the Liberals going back to Turnbull before the next election (but then I didn’t see the demise of Rudd coming either). If the Liberals recycle Turnbull, then Labor can recycle Rudd. After all, a weeks a long time in politics 🙂

  6. [Still waiting for Howard memoirs….]
    I’m surprised we haven’t heard about Rudd being signed up to write his memoirs. 😀

    But if he really is staying on in Government I hope he doesn’t even think of writing his memoirs until he resigns from parliament.

  7. [If the Liberals recycle Turnbull, then Labor can recycle Rudd. After all, a weeks a long time in politics :smile:]
    Nah, I think Rudd is gone. He has no hope of becoming PM again.

    I hope he is just hanging around so it he can be foreign minister after the election. I hope he isn’t so delusional that he thinks he will ever be PM again.

  8. Howard might be too busy being boss of the ICC to write his memoirs. 😆
    Or he can get Prue Goward’s husband to “ghost write” them. 😆

  10. Turnbull keeps shooting himself in the foot in QT by asking silly questions that get shot down so fast he just sits there and shrinks lower in his seat.

    He’ll need a revamp to his ‘image’ a little first.

    Re Shorten: he spoke well on Q&A tonight. If the election gains Labor seats or keeps the status quo — he’ll be seen as a genius in time.

  11. [Anyone think they know why?]

    Well, he was absent for a week or so doing his makeover and presentation coaching, so is it because he didn’t really say anything for that week?

  12. [But if he really is staying on in Government I hope he doesn’t even think of writing his memoirs until he resigns from parliament.]

    The Rudd Diaries 😀

  13. Shows

    rudd said a while back that he would donate his papers etc to a museum type thingy

    I think he was prpoposing a sort of US style system where we have the PM’s doco’s preserved for posterity

    of course the braindead in the MSM never reported it

  14. My laptop battery is about die so I’ll see you all at the coalface when we have something else that is interesting to discuss.

  19. It is the failure of the US stimulus measures and money ‘printing’ and the simultaneous cutting back in spending agreed to of the G20. Not mention China’s cut back in growth. Not to mentions residential and commercial real estate nightmares, and now a number of States having to balance budgets meaning slashing employees and spending…. sort of a perfect storm.

    Now all they have is low growth and massive debt and deficits all round.

    Apparently the US may look at more stimulus spending and another 5 trillion in quantitative easing (digital money printing), they will instead of calling it quits and allowing a depression to take hold spray cash everywhere to encourage inflation…..and well, the concern is if the end result the USD becomes severely devalued they get hyperinflation.

    This is why people are pouring into gold, and despite The Age suggestion that gold is a bubble, it estimated to reach USD 1,600 and beyond as big sums of money try to preserve their worth in a world of sovereign currency and economic crisis.

    That is the basic premise I think of the doom and gloom predictions.

  21. [we really need to mature in some respects re our PM’s

    Labor or Liberal]
    Well, I guess most of the really, really interesting documents are the cabinet documents which are kept confidential for 20 years (which to me seems to be too long, surely 10 years would be enough).

  24. Shows

    rudd gave some speech where he basically said wtte we need to honour and respect and understand our past,particularly our political, and by implication our PMs

    I reckon in that respect the US does do it better

  25. [of course austerity is the after midnight version of posterity]

    Gus, I thought that austerity was a good play on words…given the GFC.

  27. Open letter to Scorpio

    I was required to attend a kid’s birthday party tonight.

    Taking a cyclamen for the Mum and a bottle for myself. Needed a carry bag.

    Whilst sort of clearing the occasionally used baggy thing, apart from anything else I may have discovered, was one of my angry notes to myself. Which I would have written some four or five weeks ago.

    One side of my note was about, in short, as I wrote it, The Great Big New Liar.

    The other side reads. ‘The Only Person who can destroy Tony – is Julia.

    Scary – it means destroying Kev – and I remember the picture of Kev and Julia’.

    (All my hopes)

    I feel I lost my shirt. It reads Kevin 07.

    Do you recall, Scorpio, that I was a little more than fed up with the general conversation on the Pollbludger? Quite some time ago. About a year, I reckon.

    It seemed to me that one was not allowed to be disenchanted on The Pollbludger.

    And I was not disenchanted with Labor, but sure as hell with Kev. I could not believe that Kev’s rating remained so high. And this was well and truly before the ETS debacle.

    Scorpio, you said I would be back. And so I have, from time to time.
    But I said I would be back when an election was in the offing.

    So here I am.

    Extraordinarily, Christine Wallace and Albrechsten echoed my thoughts tonight on QnA.

    Never thought that they would think as I do. Maybe if.

    Of course, at least Albrechten’s agenda, at least, is completely different to mine.

    Not sure about Christine. First time I have experienced her views in a way I would consider unbiased.

    Catch you.

    Helen

  28. [Newspoll has Tony Abbott’s approval up 4 and disapproval down 8; Essential Research has his approval up 5 and disapproval down 11. Anyone think they know why?]

    yes -its a case of giving credit where credit is due – his strategic direction that opposition should oppose broght pressure bear and helped produce the errors.

    Abbott has earned some respect, possibly even from some ALP voters that are pleased to see Rudd go

  29. [Well, I guess most of the really, really interesting documents are the cabinet documents which are kept confidential for 20 years (which to me seems to be too long, surely 10 years would be enough).]

    Given that Labor was in power for 13 years under Hawke/Keating and the Coalition 10 years under Howard, ten years would not be acceptable to either of the major political parties as there may be things revealed that could negatively influence a current election.

  32. [Gillard sets deadline to end tax war: JULIA Gillard is racing to meet a Friday deadline to settle the damaging dis… http://bit.ly/dy2epB 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed ]

    But…but…I thought that the mining industry had given her 2 weeks.

  34. Scarps

    the issue is noy about “cabinet in confidence”

    more the run of the mill stuff

    the CIC or in the USA the “council in cabinet”

    is governed more by nat security concerns than by political concerns

  38. Look, as a lifelong Labor voter, KR never appealed and I’m not shedding any tears. I’m thankful that he beat JWH, not enough to let him take us back to the bottom again.
    The hit-squad did what had to be done, it’s a dirty job that nobody enjoys but the horse was lame and sentimentality is misplaced. Sorry if that offends.

  40. [Such an idea for Australia is not without merit but in Fiji News Limited are not the bad guys.]

    Tom, I must need to get out a bit more 😉

  41. Lead Story 11pm ABC Radio News Perth:

    “The Federal Opposition….” in relation to Robb’s whinge about Tanner still being Finance Minister.

    The more things change….

  42. [Liberation of Fiji July 2010.]

    Can’t do that until the LHDs are commissioned Glen. That is what they are for.

  47. No 1141

    Yeah, especially when it comes to you and dumb comments about non-existent ABC bias in favour of the opposition.

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