Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47, but it makes that vote share a lot less dependent on hypothetical and probably over-generous preference estimates. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 53 per cent to 29 per cent, compared with Kevin Rudd’s final figures of 46 per cent and 37 per cent. Tony Abbott can at least take heart from a return to a net positive personal rating, with approval up four to 42 per cent and disapproval down eight to 41 per cent.
Preselection news:
• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports from “senior party sources” that Labor polling in Melbourne showed the Greens running neck and neck with Lindsay Tanner. On the question of Tanner’s successor as Labor candidate, Andrew Crook from Crikey reports there is “little standing in the way” of Andrew Giles, chief-of-staff to state minister Lily D’Ambrosio. Giles is secretary of the Socialist Left faction, which dominates local branches. However, Melissa Fyfe’s sources say they are hoping to find someone with a higher profile. Other possible contenders are ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell, who according to Crook is “said to be owed a shot at pre-selection after being turned down for the ACTU presidency in favour of Ged Kearney”, and refugee activist Paris Aristotle. UPDATE: VexNews reports the Socialist Left has endorsed Cath Bowtell, with Andrew Giles agreeing not to run, and that Bowtell’s endorsement by the party is now a fait accompli.
• Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce, has won Liberal National Party preselection for the new Queensland seat of Wright, after initial nominee Hajnal Ban was forced out. Most prominent among his defeated rivals was former Blair MP Cameron Thompson.
UPDATE: Essential Research has done what it needed to do by dividing its results between this week’s polling and last week’s, and it confirms the overall picture. Kevin Rudd was on a gentle recovery trend in his last days – his final poll shows Labor improving from 51-49 to 52-48, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 38 per cent and the Coalition’s down one to 40 per cent – followed by a fillip on the primary vote under Julia Gillard. Interestingly, the Greens vote fell solidly over both periods, from 14 per cent to 11 per cent and then to 9 per cent. Labor’s primary vote under Gillard has gone from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, with the Coalition’s down one to 39 per cent. Forty-seven per cent approve of the leadership change compared with 40 per cent opposed, with an even split as to whether respondents declared themselves more (26 per cent) or less (24 per cent) likely to vote Labor now. Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49 per cent to 29 per cent, but Newspoll’s resounding improvement in Abbott’s ratings is also reflected in Essential, with his approval up five to 40 per cent and disapproval down 11 to 39 per cent. Again, respondents would prefer a full term (41 per cent) to an early election (28 per cent). There are further questions on parental leave, the mining tax and future economic conditions.
UPDATE 2: Excellent post by Possum analysing polling trends of the late Rudd epoch.
987
Were (and to a much lesser extent still are) hunted with spears. There were major sources of meat, fur and sinew.
[Oh come along Glen. Billson is a tolerably competent frontbencher who’d make a decent junior minister. He’s not within a bull’s roar of Shorten.]
Adam I wasnt comparing Bruce to Bill.
I am merely suggesting in fact I am saying I will not be a member of the Liberal Party unless a member outside of Cabinet is made leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party.
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
[Billson is a tolerably competent frontbencher]
Yes but why hasnt he been given a bigger job = probably too decent/nice a bloke to get one whereas a dufus and angry fool like Dutton gets a good job!
I hope a lot of frontbenchers lose their seats so Bruce can get a better job. He ought to be given a better job than what he already has. If he was we’d be in better shape as our shadow cabinet is an f-ing disgrace IMHO.
[1 reactor provides power for about 1 million homes. Let’s get one built before we think of 25.]
Don’t we need to build an equivalent number of desal plant to provide enough water for the process?
[A population target needs a number of things: A date, a number, a range are the headline figures. ]
So if the target is reached too quickly, does that mean the government should start canceling visas?
[26 million by 2050, =/- 0.5m.]
So that means you have just admitted that the Howard government’s doubling of the immigration rate was a massive mistake.
thylacine
Sadly Glen your Party is only jsut starting the journey though the long winter in opposition partly because Howard did not develop the likes of Billson. you are right he should be further up the food chain but regrettable your Party has lost its way and is not looking like being found anytime soon.
[for a fact I know a lot of businesses are choosing rebates,tax offsets or direct incentives to take up renewables and energy efficiency]
Energy efficiency, like solar and wind power, isn’t a quick fix. The Treasury suggests that new technologies and retrofitting buildings will give us 15% efficiency by 2050, but they say that we can’t become obsessed with spending money on efficiency measures instead of building more generation capacity. They say that the first 5 – 10% efficiency could be achieved very cost effectively, but beyond that you hit diminishing returns, and would be better investing the money in more CO2 free energy production,
Glen
the best way to direct your rage is to contact Mal and ask him if he has a jellyback like costello
😉
Night all. I need to go to work to pay for the Library so GP can hopefully learn something 😉
Well Glen, fwiw, I think Scott Morrison will be your next leader. He’s the only decent frontbench talent you’ve promoted since the election. Bishop and Hockey have destroyed their reputations, Robb has turned into a zombie and Pyne is unelectable.
[Night all. I need to go to work to pay for the Library so GP can hopefully learn something]
What does one learn from colouring books?
[The Baltic Dry Index is still falling. 22 consecutive days of decline…..troubling]
I have been expecting this for a while, nothing new, many have, and have been preparing for a likely recession.
It is another reason to keep Gillard up the sleeve as a circuit breaker when Rudd would have got caught with a likely recession in the next term.
Jen Author – I’m sure that ALP headquarters would be happy to hear you say that.
The man has said with one breath that he had been given overwhelming feedback on the high levels of migration.
Yet with the next breath he asks for 12 months to come up with population policy.
I would say, fair enough, if you Minister for Sustainable Population announce an IMMDIATE cut to immigration levels. Halve it today.
Then he could reasonably ask for 12 months to come up with whatever he wants.
Would that be reasonable? Would that be an indication of good faith from ‘The man’?
[develop the likes of Billson.]
He only did this in 2007 when he got Vetrans Affairs which he did by all accounts a good job of.
Mal is better than Tone. But Mal is not good enough to win either IMHO.
Maybe they need to lose this next one to actually get the moderates to gain control again.
Shows
you talk of low end expectations
simple things like
insulation
smart meters
turning off appliances
resetiing the A/C to 23
etc etc etc
but the killer is the take up by business/homes of renewable as an impost on their bills
roughly an extra 2c for 255 4c for 50% and 6c for 100%
this is the part of the market that is exceeding budget by 3-600%
and that is from the horses mouth
the snowball has a momentum of its own
The view about the Green vote is that most would have preferenced Labor with Rudd. So the view by Shorten tonight on Q & A that we were doing badly in all the polls does not make much sense to me. All the polls have done is go from Green Primary to Labor Primary. Big boost says the Australian.
Now whom were they backing and wanting as leader, i wonder whom Murdoch wanted? And why? Rudd was no longer listening to them or was it about selling
papers?
[I think Scott Morrison will be your next leader. ]
Agree Psephos – though he has that alarming aggression that Abbott has. And he is very rude during interviews and talks over people.
I reckon he should be manager of opposition business … like I said last night, he wouldn’t get himself kicked out of QT as often as hissy chrissy.
[Bishop and Hockey have destroyed their reputations, Robb has turned into a zombie and Pyne is unelectable.]
Agree with you there. Plus Hockey doesnt want it.
I dont want Scott Morrison.
I want a Victorian.
I dont even think Morrison is competent. You probably know more scuttlebut about him than me so I really don’t know.
But if he’s the future of the party it’s awfully depressing stuff.
[I want a Victorian.]
Glen, if you can’t get a Victorian, would you settle for an Australian?
[I would say, fair enough, if you Minister for Sustainable Population announce an IMMDIATE cut to immigration levels. Halve it today.]
Nup. You make a drastic change like that and you upset the applecart in a lot of other ways. Work out a plan of action then act upon it. Not the other way around.
That’s how cause and effect works … you don’t try to fix the effect before you work out the cause. Logic really.
[Don’t we need to build an equivalent number of desal plant to provide enough water for the process?]
No, nuclear reactors can use sea water for the secondary cooling loop. You just build the reactor near the coast. The biggest plant in Japan, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, has 7 reactors that all use the sea for cooling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant
Russia has some reactors that use excess reactor heat to desalinate water, though I’m not completely sure of the process they use.
[ you can’t talk since your boss shot an elected Prime Minister ]
Does political courage gall you GP? Costello was a wet lettuce, not everyone is.
Shows On
[So if the target is reached too quickly, does that mean the government should start canceling visas?]
yes
[So that means you have just admitted that the Howard government’s doubling of the immigration rate was a massive mistake.]
Yes. I would say the mistake was so massive, that if Gillard/ALP play their cards right, History will say that Howard/Costellos decisions lost them the 2010 election as well as the 2007.
Let me put this as clear as I can….., you know I am a life long Liberal voter, but If Gillard commits to a 50% reduction in net migration to under 100K for the next three years, I will come to an electorate of your choice and hand out HTV cards for LAbor and wear a big Julia t-shirt, fake breasts and a bright red wig.
Now do you belive me?
Julia’s sustainable population message is nothing other than rhetoric. Get the language out their and confuse the voter.
I would prefer a big Australia with people having less of a environmental footprint, because we are worst country in the world regarding this statistic.
We waste so much in this country, it is time we promoted and encouraged people to conserve and recycle more.
@ Glen
[Maybe they need to lose this next one to actually get the moderates to gain control again.]
very sensible point! They can’t afford the wowsers to stay in control or they’ll be in the wilderness for a very long time.
Glen,
Are you Bruce Bilson?
[If Labor loses the next election- it would be turmoil the factional leaders would be dead meat.]
This is not an option.
The ramifications given the pointless assassination of Rudd on false grounds would be a self destruction. Ironically Rudd would again be the only viable candidate in such circumstances. Maybe Rudd is remembering sun tzu and realises what can happen. He certainly knows 24 hours is a long time in politics.
Bruce Billson for leader, what planet is he on. Bruce Billson yep as popular as a heater on a 40 degree day.
Jen author
[Nup. You make a drastic change like that and you upset the applecart in a lot of other ways]
Nice come back- just a pity it didn’t apply the other way around did it?
Didn’t apply when the migration levels were ramped up to 300K
Libs and ALP didn’t plan for the record levels of net migration. In case you missed Bourke’s point, that’s the feedback he’s been getting.
[Now whom were they backing and wanting as leader, i wonder whom Murdoch wanted? And why? Rudd was no longer listening to them or was it about selling
papers?]
Hmmm that maybe what did – murdoch, bhp, coal lobby, factions or any combination of them, want.
[Maybe they need to lose this next one to actually get the moderates to gain control again.]
Is the current Liberal Party actually attracting moderates to it? How many moderates has the Party attracted since 1996. I would very much like to see the Liberals swing back to the centre to provide me with a choice at least.
[yes]
So you seriously think the immigration minister should be given a new power to cancel someone’s visa not because they are a bad character, but simply because some population target as, according to ABS estimates, been exceeded?
Isn’t that kind of arbitrary?
[but If Gillard commits to a 50% reduction in net migration to under 100K for the next three years]
A 3 year cut won’t do anything. If you want to cut immigration to cut population, you have to do it indefinitely.
TP — the fact that Albrectson (sp?) virtually endorsed Gillard on Q&A tonight is so miraculous maybe Julia IS the second coming. I was astounded by the tenor of her JAs responses tonight.
Maybe I’ve taken too many painkillers and wasn’t watching what I was watching. Come to think of it, I do recall Barnaby wearing a very fetching toup.
Re the next Victorian leader of the Liberal Party:
Hunt – discredited
Billson – too short
Robb – washed up
Andrews – shudder
Stone and Mirabella – evil in high heels
Broadbent – a liberal (can’t have that in the Liberal Party!)
Wood – genetically modified orgasms
Pearce, Bailey, Hawker – retiring
Maybe Kelly O’Dwyer or Josh Frydenberg will turn into leadership material in time.
It would be self destruction, they would collapse, personalities going everywhere but the oridinary branches folk would be asking what are these factional
dills doing? I doubt they will lose, but the bounce which i thought would be bigger and would reduce the Lib primary vote has not happened.
Their vote has held up. Even after the honeymoon and Julia getting all the news. We wait and see if it gets better.
1034
Andrews did make a leadership bid and got more votes than expected.
jen
barnyards toupe confirmed he is the missing marx brother
😉
Scarpat
Anyone so long as they are not from NSW!
Trebble
No I am not Mr Billson. But I am pissed off I didnt go to one of his fundraisers (dinner) I was planning on telling him to run for the leadership a statement he would have laughed off.
If Labor loses he will be the next Leader? Thought of that.
I don’t see Morrison as a leader. Permanent front bench material, though. Perfect attack dog.
I might not get too many supporters on this, but there’s something about Hunt that might take him a fair way. If he can ever decide what he stands for, that is. He chases around after Liberal positions like a sheepdog at the moment.
I won’t continue the dog analogies. There could be some very unflattering ones.
Repeat, if Labor loses who will be the next leader?
[Maybe Kelly O’Dwyer ]
I hate to say it because it is superficial — but she needs to tone down that goofy smile. No gravitas there. Gina Davis fans will like her though.
[Scarpat
Anyone so long as they are not from NSW!]
Hello! What about Howard? He was from NSW.
I’m hoping Gillard gets 55% 2pp in Victoria. That would mean 2 extra seats there.
[Gina Davis fans will like her though.]
Yes Jen too much teeth, don’t want to look like a clown.
Adam can Bruce wear lifts??
[No gravitas there. Gina Davis fans will like her though.]
And fans of Guy Smiley:
[Repeat, if Labor loses who will be the next leader?]
If Labor loses the world will come to an end so the question won’t arise.
*zu bett.
No 813
If Howard hated Red Kerry, can you please explain the innumerable appearances he made on the 7.30 Report during his time in office – I believe it was something lke 75-80 appearances.
Good for him!
But they’d have the leadership since 1991 or whenever Peacock lost it.
They’d had it long enough. Screw them!
[Yes Jen too much teeth, don’t want to look like a clown.]
I know it is very early days in her career, but I think Costello’s final political mistake was endorsing her.
I think it will be lucky for Julia Gillard that the election isn’t too far away. The longer the wait the more opportunity for wheels to fall off.
So is if the remove Rudd agenda has been achieved are all the coordinated powers now going to support Gillard or is murdoch going to go Gillard again after giving her the standard week of more balanced reporting.