Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47, but it makes that vote share a lot less dependent on hypothetical and probably over-generous preference estimates. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 53 per cent to 29 per cent, compared with Kevin Rudd’s final figures of 46 per cent and 37 per cent. Tony Abbott can at least take heart from a return to a net positive personal rating, with approval up four to 42 per cent and disapproval down eight to 41 per cent.

Preselection news:

• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports from “senior party sources” that Labor polling in Melbourne showed the Greens running neck and neck with Lindsay Tanner. On the question of Tanner’s successor as Labor candidate, Andrew Crook from Crikey reports there is “little standing in the way” of Andrew Giles, chief-of-staff to state minister Lily D’Ambrosio. Giles is secretary of the Socialist Left faction, which dominates local branches. However, Melissa Fyfe’s sources say they are hoping to find someone with a higher profile. Other possible contenders are ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell, who according to Crook is “said to be owed a shot at pre-selection after being turned down for the ACTU presidency in favour of Ged Kearney”, and refugee activist Paris Aristotle. UPDATE: VexNews reports the Socialist Left has endorsed Cath Bowtell, with Andrew Giles agreeing not to run, and that Bowtell’s endorsement by the party is now a fait accompli.

• Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce, has won Liberal National Party preselection for the new Queensland seat of Wright, after initial nominee Hajnal Ban was forced out. Most prominent among his defeated rivals was former Blair MP Cameron Thompson.

UPDATE: Essential Research has done what it needed to do by dividing its results between this week’s polling and last week’s, and it confirms the overall picture. Kevin Rudd was on a gentle recovery trend in his last days – his final poll shows Labor improving from 51-49 to 52-48, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 38 per cent and the Coalition’s down one to 40 per cent – followed by a fillip on the primary vote under Julia Gillard. Interestingly, the Greens vote fell solidly over both periods, from 14 per cent to 11 per cent and then to 9 per cent. Labor’s primary vote under Gillard has gone from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, with the Coalition’s down one to 39 per cent. Forty-seven per cent approve of the leadership change compared with 40 per cent opposed, with an even split as to whether respondents declared themselves more (26 per cent) or less (24 per cent) likely to vote Labor now. Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49 per cent to 29 per cent, but Newspoll’s resounding improvement in Abbott’s ratings is also reflected in Essential, with his approval up five to 40 per cent and disapproval down 11 to 39 per cent. Again, respondents would prefer a full term (41 per cent) to an early election (28 per cent). There are further questions on parental leave, the mining tax and future economic conditions.

UPDATE 2: Excellent post by Possum analysing polling trends of the late Rudd epoch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,187 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 20 of 24
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  2. [ Just goes to prove she was good at SOMETHING! ]

    Outrageous, there was nothing great about the woman’s scones. Nutmeg and no buttermilk. eek.

  3. G

    grrrrr

    emus… I don’t know.

    kangaroos… are in incredibly destructive numbers because we have created a landscape dotted with artificial water holes, shelter belts and highly nutritious grasses, plus we have excluded their major predators. Native species of plants are being grazed to extinction by kangaroos. Other native species are being outcompeted for the grass and grass/seeds and are also in big difficulties.

    camels – a million plus and growing. Already causing huge environmental destruction. Credit to Rudd he organised for a major cull.

    Brumbies – useless and destructive. Vast numbers on the loose. Proper handling is subject to mawkish sentimentality of the new traditionalists who simply lie about the destructive impact of feral horses.

    water buffalo – these cause huge destruction of northern wetlands. In big numbers they cause floodplains to look like ploughed paddocks. Big numbers were shot out in TB control programs several decades back, but they are making a comeback.

  4. [I would welcome examples. Basic thing is that he is a classic growth paradigm fella with no understanding that sooner or later we have to get off the growth train. The sooner we do it, the more choices we have. The later we do it, the less choices we will have.]

    Sorry Boer — I don’t know why you think he has to lay out the whole policy in a news interview.

    This was one of the reasons Rudd was damned either way when he was being accused of not ‘selling’ his message on the one hand, and not ‘explaining’ on the other.

    These are two very different concepts and explaining requires detail where selling required soundbites.The press were bored by explanations but demanded adequate soundbites.

    And if the question of sustainability could be adequately answered in a 7 minute interview, I’d be very sceptical, if not alarmed.

    He got the purvue only in the last 24 hours — I’d give him a little time and leeway to cement a cogent policy.

  7. A couple of choice quotes from 6PR’s Simon Beaumont:

    In your time in the chair have you ever seen a reaction like that witnessed in WA to the mining tax?

    I asked Kevin Rudd the day after the Henry tax review what a super-profit was. He couldn’t really explain it. En masse, WA listeners have been disgusted, appalled and bemused for the past seven or eight weeks.

    Seriously, should WA just secede and be done with everyone “over east” once and for all?

    We are mightily annoyed that the GST carve-up doesn’t come back to us in fair measure, but of course secession ain’t gonna happen. I should add that in WA a jury decision to clear Barry McLeod of assaulting Constable Matt Butcher bore the most ferocious talkback I have seen.

    Your biggest disappointment?

    That Kevin Rudd stopped doing talkback. John Howard always did talkback, and it forced every other senior pollie into doing it. Rudd preferred Sunrise and community cabinets, and that has destroyed a unique part of the Australian media. Come on, Julia.

     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/ten-questions-simon-beaumont/story-e6frg996-1225884951619 

  8. *leaves, hoping that Burke listens effectively and starts to connect a few dots in what it takes to have a sustainable population policy*

  10. [There is almost nothing that is sustainable about agriculture in Australia today.]

    If that is true (and I certainly don’t know one way or the other) I’d say that knowledge would inform his new position.

  12. BK@936

    Barnaby held up Flo Bjelke-Petersen as an exemplar.

    Joh was a very miserable excuse for a human being, but I give credit for her time in the Senate. By all accounts she did a very competent job, and treated all with respect. She seems to be a very nice person who made one mistake in life. Pity it was such a doozy!

  13. Boerwar,

    Your view would be seen by many greens as cruel, I have allays seen that as a huge hypocrisy. Practical conservationist.. should be more of them.

  14. Boerwar – I concur with your comments on Burke on Lateline

    he is clearly hoping to be given a leave pass in relation to naming a population target until after the election.

    Choosing a migration number involves choosing our population.

  16. [he is clearly hoping to be given a leave pass in relation to naming a population target until after the election.]
    So what population figure are you choosing?

  18. Thought work I have come across Bill Shorten, I have always found him to be committed to doing the right thing, he has in my experience being responsive in handling disability issues.

    Yes he plays political games but so does every other member of a political party regardless of its colour.

  19. I’m still surprised people class Shorten as a “rising star” when he has as much talent as a burst boil.

  27. [maybe link it to the number of reactors that you want]
    Well according to the department of resources and energy, we need to double our electricity production by 2050. That assumes an across the board 15% improvement in efficiency.

  31. [Shorten has more talent than the whole current Liberal frontbench put together – not that that’s a big ask.]

    I agree he has more talent.

    He also seems to lack the stomach or the backbone for a 50-50 fight.

    He’s only comfortable in his own skin when his aprty is ahead 54-46.

    Woe Australia with these people in control of goverment

  32. morewest,

    [Joh was a very miserable excuse for a human being, but I give credit for her time in the Senate. By all accounts she did a very competent job, and treated all with respect. She seems to be a very nice person who made one mistake in life. Pity it was such a doozy!]

    The best part for Joh having Flo in Canberra was that it allowed him a lot more time at the controls with his pilot, Beryl! 😉

  33. No 980

    LOL puh-lease. The guy is worse than Rudd. When the circle jerkers rabbit on about him, it reminds me of Glen’s insidious infatuation with the equally talentless Bruce Bilson.

  35. [Shows

    So 1 reactor for every 2 million peeps?]
    1 reactor provides power for about 1 million homes. Let’s get one built before we think of 25.
    [What do we do we do whilst waiting for the infrastructure to be built?]
    Well we should start NOW. Instead we are going to waste another decade it seems with a bit of wind power here and a bit of solar there, but still staying completely addicted to coal. There seems to be no plan in Australia to at least start converting some coal plants to gas, obviously because doing so will increase the gas price which will be felt by consumers.

  36. [When is the Liberal Party going to produce a rising star.]

    It already has one if they let him get a decent f-ing portfolio = Bruce Billson.

  37. Procoptodon was a giant kangaroo, so it’s not very likely it preyed on other kangaroos. Australian megafauna have been extinct for over 40,000 years. I don’t think there were any natural predators in Australia big enough to attack kangaroos between the extinction of the megafauna and the arrival of men with guns. So what are these natural predators we are supposed to have wiped out?

  38. [LOL puh-lease. The guy is worse than Rudd. ]
    Meh, my reply to that is your party’s deputy leader is Julie Bishop who is at best a mediocre back bencher.

  39. No 975

    Adam, you can’t talk since your boss shot an elected Prime Minister. But I’m sure you’ll just ramble on endlessly about electing parties, not leaders – completely ignoring the Kevin07 campaign from three years ago.

  40. Shows On

    A population target needs a number of things: A date, a number, a range are the headline figures.

    If it helps the conversation, and you aren’t just warming up for bi-polar explosion of bilious reactionary outrage, my view is the following:

    26 million by 2050, =/- 0.5m.

  41. [Procoptodon was a giant kangaroo, so it’s not very likely it preyed on other kangaroos.]
    Sorry, I thought you were asking what modern kangaroos evolved from.

  42. GP If Bruce Billson is talentless gee the Liberal Party is well and truly up the creek with a paddle.

    At least Bruce held Dunkley in 2007 unlike the dear leader Howard in Bennenlong.

  43. [he is clearly hoping to be given a leave pass in relation to naming a population target until after the election.]
    @Sqiggle

    What is it that makes everyone think all answers have to be given yesterday?

    Give the man a few weeks to get his hat on at least. That one word ‘sustainability’ does change the mission he was on. Asking for a definitive answer now is like asking you mother what is for lunch on September 21. Lots to happen and know between now and then. Give him a break!

  44. [It already has one if they let him get a decent f-ing portfolio = Bruce Billson.]

    Oh come along Glen. Billson is a tolerably competent frontbencher who’d make a decent junior minister. He’s not within a bull’s roar of Shorten.

  45. The interesting thing about the polls as i mentioned earlier all of the bounce Labor has got is from the Greens.
    One would think that Julia would have got more of a bounce but the bounce is not all that great when you look closely.
    If Labor loses the next election- it would be turmoil the factional leaders would be dead meat.

  46. Shows

    re efficiency

    some dweeb was on I think it was John Dee this am talking about how business can save money and also help the enviro by becoming energy smart- I think he started some silly thing called PLANET ARK

    /sarcasm off/

    for a fact I know a lot of businesses are choosing rebates,tax offsets or direct incentives to take up renewables and energy efficiency
    (sorry cant give figures as i am at the pointy end,but believe me a LOT of businesses are trying to become energy smart)

    the savings in usage in 2020 will organically offset the increasing demand

    but of course complacency and grasping a SILVER BULLET will derail this

  48. GP The Liberal Party have been jerking off for years for what else could explain the current state of the Liberal party

  49. GP, we’ve been over this at great length earlier in the evening. I’m not repeating it now. Scroll back if you want to know my views. Anyway I don’t see any logical connection between your comment and mine at 975.

  50. [The interesting thing about the polls as i mentioned earlier all of the bounce Labor has got is from the Greens.]

    That’s where the soft vote resides.

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