Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
Immaca – labor has preselected professor of law at unisa, and local boy, Rick Sarre for the seat of Sturt. Mia was offered and declined becuase of her youngern.
Frank!
You forgot the good folk of the Burkina Faso Community. Apparently they too don’t like what happened to Rudd…
Seriously mate, I had lunch with 20 people who thought the moon landing was a hoax…
Rudd is gone. Get over it.
frank
if you want to cross the rubicon
that is your choice
I will just get green with envy
😉
Just like clockwork, the circle speaks.
Quick there’s a new Sun Herald poll. If you stand on your heads, squint through one eye & click your heals together you’ll almost be able to see something that suits the narrative.
All so predictable.
Anyone read Patricia Karvelas’s piece in the Australian Friday.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/a-stab-right-from-the-heartland/story-e6frgczf-1225884039539
Seems a credible account.
.
And this
.
Was Rudd the fall guy? Can Rudd work for these two?
Its not about lurching to the right. people like Gillard represent places like Werribee and Melton and those areas see and share many of Truthy’s concerns about boat people.
Whilst there was the problem surrounding two elections in three or four years but I recall there were many ALP types wanting a crack at Abbott.
I think Shananhan has covered things on this occasion quite well for Rudd did have that opening.
As i wrote the otherday Gillard is no bleeding heart leftie, she is an old school leftie.
Shows – the theory would be that going to a DD on a matter of principle would have bolstered Rudd’s credentials, along with getting a win on legislation central to his proclaimed policy platform.
It’s all a bit pointless to speculate now. Although I would agree generally with the idea that only the bold win in politics, and Rudd wasn’t bold enough given the popularity he had for 2 years.
Gusface@253
And join a dying breed 🙂
[If it meant voters could regularly flush someone like Abbott out of their lives then it might be seen as a necessary exercise.]
Yeah but still, Governments need time to get things done. Having an election in Late 2007, then again in early 2010, then again in early 2012 sounds like a nightmare, where the government wouldn’t be able to get anything done. So what would it campaign on?
Just like clockwork the dick head speaks.
Pull the carrot out of your arse, Frank.
FrankL of Templestowe
This is what Vera was saying on the earlier blog. The polls were going up under Rudd.
And the point of the coup was?
If not bad polling then what? A deal with the miners to shaft Rudd?
frankl
JG need a good two but really 4-6 months of polling to gauge her impact
the water is muddy (frank out of consideration for your sensibilities i didnt say bloody) and we need a bit of clear air to determine the true picture
[Shows – the theory would be that going to a DD on a matter of principle would have bolstered Rudd’s credentials, along with getting a win on legislation central to his proclaimed policy platform.]
I understand that. But the downside is it would mean needing to go to ANOTHER election in early 2012! So there would be at most 2 years to get some more policies in place before effectively being forced, almost like a fixed term, to go to another election.
What if the Liberals just blocked everything in the second term so the Government couldn’t get anything through parliament, in the hope of destroying the Government’s agenda so they didn’t have any achievements to campaign on?
[No, YOU’RE the one who needs the Reference from Lib HQ They love flip floppers like you.]
Frank they love kool-aid drinkers so you’d get a spot at Lib HQ in no time 😀
[Seriously mate, I had lunch with 20 people who thought the moon landing was a hoax…]
Yep, your average Liberal voter :s
[JG need a good two but really 4-6 months of polling to gauge her impact]
I think the election will be early August at the earliest and late October at the latest.
Dee the media today have had a number of articles which I am sure are sourced from within the Goovernment but they do tell why Rudd lost the leadership.
The trend over the past nine months has been away from Rudd and something had to be done, ideally Rudd would haev changed the situation but he was either unable or unwilling to do so.
Good to see all the wagons circled. Don’t let them see the white of your eyes.
Boo hoo, FrankL. You and your compadres will come back to Labor, like I did. Get over it.
[the water is muddy (frank out of consideration for your sensibilities i didnt say bloody) and we need a bit of clear air to determine the true picture]
Whose we paleface?
Julian Watson@260
Please note that he’s referring to that other Testa di Cazzo who shares my name. 🙂
The election will be this year.
September is footy finals
October is Commonweralth Games
November is Victorian State Election month
scarps
white man speak with forked tongue
gusface speak with farked tongue
252
Did you explain to them that what they actually meant was that the moon landings were hoaxes?
TTfab
Why didnt they ever bring back cheese
I rest my case M’lord
Well I actually don’t think the short terms would have been a problem. If you can sustain the political momentum then you can win.
I’d kind of like to say that with everyone (particularly the media) being so ADD these days it might be more natural to have 2 year terms 😛
Where of where is Truthy ?????????
Has he fled the Communist takeover by Comrade Gillardski..perhaps Truthy has fled to NZ
When will we see his great truths again??
Can’t he bear the thoughts of Julia Trimphant at the Polls,and Abbott prone at her feet
Oh Truthy when will we see you again ?
[I’ve just got back from a big dinner with family & friends at an Italian club. There were 12 at the table, all between the ages of 55 – 65. All bar 2 (not naturalised) have always voted Labor……
…..And I suspect the Chinese community might also have a lot to say about Labor at the next election.]
Is this because Marco Polo brought back pasta from his trip to China?
gusface speak with farked tongue
Must be distinctly uncomfortable for Mrs Gus, non?
geoff
I suspect a deal was struck with the miners between Swann & Gillard. The ALP probably agree to get rid of Rudd in return for negotiations.
What a great long term friend Swann is.
MT
I can breathe thru my ears
😉
Truthy has been banned 🙁
MB
Hear Hear
274
They had done a deal with the French that the French got all the cheese. They did not want to make France harder to govern by adding another cheese because may 1968 was too fresh in their memories.
The Galaxy poll records a dubious reaction to the manner of Rudd’s execution, and a huge preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott. One of these factors is going to to lose salience as the election approaches, and the other is not.
The irony of Gillard doing a deal with the miners will be seen as irony for she has previously had a lukewarm relationship with the CFMEU
Frank Calabrese (#270),
We all know that you removed the digit years ago…
You’re in the clear bro.
Tom the first adn the best (#273),
Firstly, that’s a bloody long name.
Secondly, I tried to but they said it only proves their point.
Ironic timing:
284
I repeat my post at 15.
So the Victorian Morgan mentioned in the comments of the previous thread does not get its own thread then?
TTfab’
So thats where cheese eating surrender monkeys come from
And i thought it was all an illuminati plot
[geoff
I suspect a deal was struck with the miners between Swann & Gillard. The ALP probably agree to get rid of Rudd in return for negotiations.
What a great long term friend Swann is.]
Dee, wow. I thought that conspiracy theories went on holidays to England with Diogenes. Glad to see that you have stepped up the plate.
I can breathe thru my ears
Good news for Mrs Gus, but watch out that the draught doesn’t upset your brains.
[Good news for Mrs Gus, but watch out that the draught doesn’t upset your brains.]
Gus only drinks bottled beer.
mexicanbeemer
How do you think the mining issue will pan out?
I can’t see the miners rolling over for Jules. Although, now she has offered an olive branch any chest beating might put her in good stead to paint them as working against the national interest.
#288: Yeah, I’ll get to it. I’m kind of writing this post piece by piece.
289
No. “Cheese eating surrender monkeys” is from the Simpsons. It was a reference to a famous de Gaul quote about France having a very large number of cheeses which made it ungovernable and to the riots in May 1968 in France.
William @284
shorter
“one of these things doesnt belong here”
Non?
Scarpat
Conspiracy theories???
We are talking politics here. It’s one big conspiritorial institution.
Not sure I follow, Gusface.
Truthy banned?!
What, for being a complete and utter tool?
Poor bastard is probably curled up in the foetal position, crying into his Asian takeaway…
294
At least that means that it will be at the top of the main page, above the main thread, for a couple of days at least so it will get more posts.