Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

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  1. The last time we saw polls move up that sharply was when Rudd took over from Beasley – and went on to cream Howard in 2007.

    I reckon Tone had better start thinking about what he’d like to do after politics.

  2. […so they’re probably up about three or four points. Combining the two polls makes it clearly statistically significant.]
    The important thing is getting the Primary vote back into the low to mid 40s. That is what will make it impossible for the Liberals to win.

  3. [It was full of either Greens, or Post-Modernists that think the concept of political ideology is fatally flawed.]

    Better to say you were a Anarchist maybe?

  4. From Neilsen. bob will be happy, not.
    [Much of the rise came from the Labor ”protest” vote returning home. The Greens fell 7 points, to a more normal level of 8 per cent – what they polled at last election.]

  5. [The important thing is getting the Primary vote back into the low to mid 40s. That is what will make it impossible for the Liberals to win]

    Spot on Shows

  6. gary

    I am saying before you pop the corks, just nmake sure that you dont rely on the old maxim

    [one swallow doth a summer make]

    To say one poll is just one in isolation and then latch on to another as
    quote

    ‘stratospheric’

    Is a tad disingenous for someone like your good self

  7. [163 – but Kevin, you are overlooking the PV. That has jumped. Very important.]

    At the time I wrote that comment I was going on the Galaxy and I didn’t think the PV jump in the Galaxy to 41 cf mid-high 30s in most final-days-of-Rudd polls was any big deal. I have always believed that the PV drift to the Greens consisted largely of disillusioned soft Labor voters who, whatever they said about not intending to preference Labor, would have washed back to Labor at election time. Essential were showing the Greens vote to be increasingly butter-soft. (I do think a small portion of the Greens spike was coming from the Coalition, but probably no more than 2 points of it.)

    A primary of 47 in the Nielsen, OTOH, even when combined with the Galaxy of 41, suggests it’s not just the disenchanted left coming back into the fold.

  8. Much of the rise came from the Labor ”protest” vote returning home.

    That was me! And my mum! We’re back, all coz of teh Jules.

  9. Well we all know that THE ONLY poll that matters is that OO one 😉
    Will Shammers be throwing out early hints over the weekend?
    If he’s silent Tone will need to be changing his budgies come Tuesday!

  10. [The important thing is getting the Primary vote back into the low to mid 40s. That is what will make it impossible for the Liberals to win.]

    Watch the Coalition do a feral media blitz after these poll results.

  11. Honestly folks, don’t do an MSM and go all nuts over one day’s worth of polls – it’s what happens over the next month or so that matter.

    BUT if it’s clear that there’s a bunch of Greens voters coming back and giving Julia a shot, she had better take notice and pander to the left not to the right. That’s asylum seekers and carbon price – don’t stuff it up!

  12. [Watch the Coalition do a feral media blitz after these poll result]

    I don’t think it will help them Dee. But you’re right. Get ready for a re-run of the wall to wall anti-union ads that the libs ran in 2007.

  13. frank

    my point stands

    grog bless his lttle socks is a punter like us all

    the rule of polls is trendlines trendlines trendlines

    thats what was used to knife rudd was it not?

  14. [That was me! And my mum! We’re back, all coz of teh Jules.]
    You’re a journalist, you’ll return home if someone offers you enough alcohol.

  15. Soccer players are the most fragile people on earth – a light tap on any part of their body will send them into spasms of agony.

  16. Actually I am a little guilty of reading too much into one poll above myself too – the Galaxy 52-48 could yet turn out to be rogue low. 🙂

  17. The Galaxy and Nielsen polls look good. Face it, any poll that shows an ALP PV with a 4 in front of it is a good poll. Unless your one of Abbooots rabble. 🙂

    That said, yup, its how the trend looks over the next 4 weeks that is going to be the important thing, but i reckon it will largely be good news fro the ALP. Just the fact that Julia G has taken over will mean that a lot of people who have been disengaged will be looking more closely at politics, just to see how she goes.

    That means they will also be looking more at Abboott. That is not good news for the Libs as it will make it a lot harder for them to keep him out of sight.

    Sad that Tanner is leaving. Hope they get a good candidate there.

    Say does anyone reckon that now that Julia G is leader, that they may be able to get Mia Handshin to run against Pooble Pyne in Sturt this year?? Would love to se that prat lose his seat.

  18. Its kinda sad really.. the momentum in the current upswing actually started a few weeks ago. The party hacks picked just the right moment. Fabulous.

  19. So who are the geniuses in the Labor party urging a lurch to the Right on asylum seekers? Methinks these swining Green voters would not be keen on that.

  20. You’re a journalist, you’ll return home if someone offers you enough alcohol.

    I can afford my own, thank you very much. Not that I’d say no, mind you.

  21. I’ve just watched the Abbott interview on the 7.30 Report special edition.

    What a train wreck! Abbott is a disaster. He will drag the Liberal primary vote down by 5 points or more over a Turnbull or Hockey once an election is called. I’m talking about 2PP 56 – 44 territory.

  22. [So who are the geniuses in the Labor party urging a lurch to the Right on asylum seekers?]
    I don’t even know what could constitute a move to the right on that issue. e.g. How could Labor bring back the Pacific non-Solution after criticising it for the last 9 years, including when Gillard was the shadow minister?

  23. Fark me.

    Just watched old mate Abbott on the 7:30 Report.

    I nearly shed a tear for Rudd. I cried with laughter after watching Tone.

    With all the MSM attention being taken up by the mining tax, I’d forgotten just how sh*t he is. He’s T.O.A.S.T.

    Where’s my mate, Truthmeister? Your man is in deep do do.

  24. Just watching Lateline. Seems a bit rough to me that the Libs are hammering the whole thing about Labor changing their policies or not. I mean, the Libs dont actually have any policies?

  25. Good to see all the wagons circled. Don’t let them see the white of your eyes.

    Good to see that favourite Liberal tactic of “Look over there, boat people” so brilliantly adapted to “look over there a new poll”, What a great distraction from the poll that came out earlier today. You know the poll I’m talking about, the one that the bloggers on this site would normally have analysed to the nth degree & been euphoric about but have studiously ignored since its release. The one that showed Labor (under Rudd) with a significant increase in its 2PP to 53%. Doesn’t fit the fantasy anymore does it? No let’s instead all get hysterically euphoric over a new poll that shows (sans Rudd) a 2PP of 52%. Morgan is crap after all, isn’t it? Galaxy however must be spot on because it (sort of) agrees with what we are trying to convince ourselves of.

    Can hardly contain the nausea waiting for any new poll that may help the cause? Don’t panic. If it doesn’t fit the narrative chosen by those cringing behind the circled wagon then it can be ignored or torn to shreads. If it suits the narrative then it has to be accepted without question – even if the poll was personally arranged by Andrew Bolt.

    I’ve just got back from a big dinner with family & friends at an Italian club. There were 12 at the table, all between the ages of 55 – 65. All bar 2 (not naturalised) have always voted Labor. Almost all of us at some time in our lives were unionists or married to a unionist. Not one of the 12 were happy about what the Labor party did to Rudd. It might shock you but, outside those circled wagons, Rudd is actually quite liked. I know the Italian community, or at least the community I’m involved with, like him a lot. I don’t know how many primary votes the Labor party lost among the group I had dinner with but I suspect that at least a handful won’t be marking Labor 1 at the next election.

    And I suspect the Chinese community might also have a lot to say about Labor at the next election.

    But “look over there, is that a new poll?”. If it works for you, why not?

    Cheers.

  26. Gusface@241

    frankL

    but after the smoke has cleared and the wounds are bandaged

    it all comes down to workchoices

    Which by your abandonment of Labor weill be a reality under your new friend Abbott 🙂

  27. Frank @240, agree. The punters were finally starting to come to terms with what Abbott would mean and they didn’t like it. The opposition was running out of steam this week and it showed.

    Its still highly arguable if Julia would has made much difference. Of course, we’ll never know.

  28. Having said that, I feel sad for Rudd but I’m not too worried about Labor. Its the policies that matter and this case its a lay down misere.

  29. [Could a government win 3 elections in 4 years?]

    If it meant voters could regularly flush someone like Abbott out of their lives then it might be seen as a necessary exercise.

  30. imacca

    Lateline; Morrison hammering on same ALP policies.

    Yeah, I couldn’t understand why Bowen didn’t drive that point home.

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