Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
I wonder if Ghost Who Votes knows if there is a newspoll tonight, or tomorrow…? 😉
[He waffled, he looked stupid trying to sound like the average ‘bloke’, he made no friends in the party or the media and he thought he was more capable than everyone else and told them so by all accounts.]
Yep, he wasn’t a good enough spinner, thus the selectors went for Warnie.
They chose Rudd as they had no hope of winning with a usual Labor leader. The 24/7 news cycle means leaders will more and more need to develop the cult of personality, even Gillard is profiting from that right now it seems.
confessions – maybe its disappearance is a sign you didnt get absolution 😀
maybe ur gravatar has gravitated to another level
TP
I read some books a longa time ago calledfuture shock followed by the third wave
we now are reverting intellectually as quickly as we develop technologically
is there anything in them books about programmatic specificity?
Ohwwwharrrr!!!
You got nothing on girl! you hussy! 😯
cupid
I’ll pay that
Vera
Is ari about?
😉
ps
dont tell finns
🙂
@1749, sorry, I ate it. 🙂
[Ohwwwharrrr!!!
You got nothing on girl! you hussy! 😯 ]
Any my pink bits were on display *before* my gravatar wen AWOL!!! 😳
is your gravatar a photo of a white cat in a snowstorm?
hubba hubba hubba
PB goes SBS
Gus
Ari and the Finns are unavailable right now.
Sigh, don’t you miss Finns, i do 😉
Their ABC news bulletins are once again replete with stories beginning with the hackneyed phrase:
[“The Federal Opposition says …]
Abbott is back out of his box …
cuppa
PMs come and go but some things never change!
Rumours
* some of those claiming to be behind the demise of Rudd actually weren’t….but think it looks good on their C.V. to say so and have briefed the press accordingly.
Meanwhile, the real forces at work are quite happy to stay unknown.
(Hint: no need to fear that a certain faction from a certain state are pulling the strings; more than they don’t want to look like they were out of the loop).
* it had nothing to do with polls.
Vera
maybe he is organisng the other dolphins for when Tone gives his surf lesson?
hehehe
If we have a poll out tomorrow, say hmmmm 55 or more….there will be rumours of rumours, rustlings in the dark, whispers about, expressions of doubt as Turnbull begins to gently create fear and also test the waters.
[is your gravatar a photo of a white cat in a snowstorm?]
No. A hot pink swatch.
Vera Anyone who puts the boot in to Rudd is a Trog. There Maybe a few things some might liked but over all he was a great PM and his policies were basically right.
btw Glenn you areone of the few Libs who liked Gorton in my view the best Lib PM in my lifetime
William, what have you done with confessions pink bits? 😯
fessions
I had to read that a couple of times
[I don’t think many of the posters on this blog from the left understand how working-class white voters feel about immigration. To these people, “big Australia” is a disturbing concept, it gets interpreted as an Australia with fewer white and more yellow and brown faces.]
Funny that. When I hear the term “big Australia” I think of even more cars on the road, public transport bulging at the seams, more and more apartments being built on former suburban blocks, less water to go around and more and more energy required.
The possible actual colour of the people hadn’t entered my mind.
The big business owns the regulators and government in the USA so I wont be surprised that there power here is enough to get rid of a PM who was about to cause global sea change with the resources tax. And of course those to benefit from such a course would put democracy before serfdom, right?
Gus
When is that surf lesson taking place, do you know?
Also I somehow doubt that Kev will be barefoot bowling with Swan and the 7PM Project folk now
vera
kev will
and he will just keep dropping the bowling ball on sawnnees foot
I would
😉
For those who missed it earlier – coming up on Poss’s Blog:
[Meanwhile, the real forces at work are quite happy to stay unknown.]
Possum?
Vera,
They did slow down a bit on the “Federal Opposition says …” stories while abbott was holed up in a cave somewhere. But since he’s emerged from the batcave the propaganda and spin are back to their obscene previous levels. The link between abbott and the spin they promulgate is so obvious that they mustn’t feel any shame at being so publicly used.
Gus
Swanny doesn’t seem so sexy anymore
Oh Dear – mark Webber just escaped with his life intact, no injuries…. a full inverse immelman, loop the loop in an F1 car after hitting a lotus, I’m sitting here shaking at the footage
1750 by Laocoon
Peter Brent believes that Newspoll will be next week and I can’t see any evidence that a Newspoll is about to be published.
Gusface,
[Scorps
kev going into QT that day is the most courageous thing i think he did.
The MEME of rudds a dud was buried that day
The respect he has garnered has inoculated the public to the MSM spin]
I’ve never been at the forefront of any Kevin Rudd for sainthood, total blind, adoration society, but I sure did have admiration for the way in which he took charge of a disjointed, dispirited rabble and turned it into a formidable campaigning force.
And after the wonderfully exhilarating despatch of Howard and the dark side, he then proceeded to turn that group, complete with extra recruits, into an effective and competent Government.
Against formidable forces, he has achieved some amazing social and economic benefits for the people who elected him and contrary to opinion expressed here, allowed the untapped talent in the Government to flower. It didn’t happen just on its own, it had a lot of help from the direction of the “bureaucratic nerd” who knew, more than anyone, just what was needed to shape these people, (the greater majority of who had “never” experienced being in Government) into the Ministers and Parl Secs that they are today.
That these very same people were responsible for removing his prize, the PM’ship in such a manner were forgiven in so noble a manner, just demonstrated the quality of Rudd the man and Rudd the loyal foot soldier to the party he loves.
I think my suspicion that this transition stinks to high heaven is maybe right. Maybe one day somebody will write a book that tells the actually forces at work.
[So much hate and spite here against Kev from those who not so long ago were singing his praises.]
Vera, We both know that if the ALP reinstalled Rudd as leader tomorrow claiming it had been a bad decision to dump him there’d be people here who would accept that and claim that Kev is The Man and the party always gets it right despite spending the last few days saying that he had to go. 😉
Newspoll usually gets released on Monday night and is in Tuesday’s OO isn’t it?
So maybe tomorrow night?
1782
I am told that there are a bunch of state Newspolls due out next week.
scorps
nice passage
cuppa
I reckon they collectively coped such a serve from the public that they would try and pretend to be unbiased
the gloaters were obvious by the spittle they wrote and said
[Against formidable forces, he has achieved some amazing social and economic benefits for the people who elected him and contrary to opinion expressed here,]
It is fashionable to diss the former PM now dontya know? It helps legitimise the transition and helps the personal internal emotional conflict with said ex PM.
Scorps @1783
HEAR HEAR
They don’t call people who tweet, twits for no reason
zoomster,
[* it had nothing to do with polls.]
No, they were part of the “look over there” factors that I mentioned earlier!
thanks GWV!
Scorps
What Gus said!
Bill Shorten, I owe you an apology. You have a pair. In reflection, a pretty challenging situation for the alp. I guess the show pony element is important for some, not to say that Jules is just a show pony. I work for myself, so I am forgetting what dealing with other people in the workplace is like. I remember that I didn’t always like it. I personally don’t worry too much about other people’s style, I just accept them. I go for ideas.
It looks like the alp has some talent deep within that I have never seen before. Nice work! It seems like a big risk to take, maybe you guys should re-elect your leader internally every sixth months and put more focus on your party’s process. Disunity within the party need not be destabilising. Opinions within the party can be spread quite a lot. If we are shown more of this internal detail, there will be less obstacles to replacing leaders. Plenty of time to think of that now.
Kev may have been a visionary, but if the party starts murmuring, you’ve got to act. Some more discussion on this could have kept a few more votes, but I guess both party’s have a pretty good idea of Australian voters potential loyalty now.
Touch of brilliance adding the sustainability angle to the migration debate. I wouldn’t want to go hard on boat people, I would like to see more focus on the cause of the stream of refugees. It isn’t people smugglers. They perform a valuable humanitarian service for some.
Preserving “Aussieness” is not a priority at all. we have a culture that is the envy of the world, and almost always terminally infects anyone exposed. Tourism Australia should theme some ads with this.
Housing affordability is an issue that does effect aussieness.
Hard choice for foreign affairs, Smithee is no relation to allen. He does a good job. If Kev’s skill is respected by the party, put him into Education, or to the back bench to keep an eye on things. I don’t think Kev fluked getting the top job.
Knobs don’t win elections, so Kev isn’t a knob. He is a kook. I think I might be too! Don’t worry Kev, your replacement is a Daynight crossed with a leopard! Importantly, they are both characters, and part of your job is to entertain me, to which I look forward to.
When it is important, I will listen to the opposition, but rarely am I entertained. Mostly they get mute.
This was actually quite a fantastic puzzle to solve. In some ways, I think that Kev’s light was almost too bright. I look forward to seeing the talent of some others.
Any Lib trolls out there, it is easy to sound dumb, but it is hard to sound smart – that’s why you are in decline – watch the bounce. You can’t slay the alp when they are having internal issues, you’ve got no chance of beating them when the surgical wounds heal before you can respond.
Joke’s on you – advantage labor. Go Jules!
Enjoy your higher taxes!
Mr Squiggle @ 1781,
We may be the only two on here that know what an Immelman Turn is.
Suffice to say for others that it is something best performed at altitude in a stunt plane (or German WW1 monoplane fighter aircraft) than any type of car.
However, as Webber demonstrated, F1 are probably the safest if you [must] do it in a car!
A number of nights ago now, Before the change, I did make mention of the great power the mining industry and their like had, and the global form they had in getting their own way. Corruption is a way of life for big business, regulators and politicians in the USA. Them pushing their weight around in Aussie is now big deal for them. So they can get any number of their mates to write up and talk about polls, undermine people and so forth…follow the money when you are talking about billions.
Gus, I can’t remember the details now, but there was a story on the weekend on ABC radio news beginning with the phrase “The Federal Opposition says …” The funny thing was, that when they got into the story itself there was nothing in there about or from the Opposition! It seems they just had to use that phrase about them saying whatever it is they said in the headline, though it was quite unconnected from the actual story that followed. Bias? Surely not. Not at their ABC!