Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

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  2. Just to inject some politics from the UK I found the reference to Welsh PMs.

    [Which prime ministers were born in Wales?

    For years I’ve been teasing people with that question. It’s a bit of a trick, really, for the answer has always been none. No, not even David Lloyd George – he was actually born in Manchester.

    It is a surprising fact, especially when so many Welsh-born politicians came quite close to the premiership – including Nye Bevan, Neil Kinnock, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Heseltine, Michael Howard and John Prescott.

    Now my answer will have to be revised. Wales has a prime minister at last. The new Australian prime minister, Julia Gillard, who was born in Barry, in south Wales. ]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/06/which_prime_ministers_were_bor.html

  3. for dragging this back up but it needs to be addressed.

    [Joe Hockey:]

    perhaps we should his real name or has he changed it by deed poll or just shortened
    it

  4. Well, no-one will be happier than myself if things are still going fairly well in late 2013!

    We shall, of course, continue to argue the ifs and might-have-beens until our dying days.

  6. I missed including the word Tax but would have thought it unusual for the mineral council and their representative Hooke to be anti mining.

  7. Greensborough Growler: You set a very high standard of achievement for Rudd. Yet you lovingly go googoo eyes over Bob Brown who has achieved zilch in thirty years of public life.

    If you incoroprate the GFC in to Rudd’s CV of achievement, then it is a very impressive record indeed.

    I was merely pointing out why the laundry list of achievements being touted around by Rudd supporters were things which weren’t actually going to win him any support. As for his legacy, I don’t set a high standard of achievement for Rudd compared other PMs in recent history. Howard, Keating, Hawke, Fraser, and Whitlam, all achieved rather a lot in achieving their respective ends – and I do, in all honesty, believe that you’d have to go back to McMahon and Gorton to find someone who achieved less with the power they had at their disposal.

    I also wonder, to some extent, if this mightn’t have been a (very unwise) tactical ploy – Rudd’s actions, especially over the last year, bear a strange resemblance to the “small target” strategy you often see oppositions running – works well in opposition, but a very strange thing to do while in government.

    This doesn’t mean I don’t believe he didn’t do some good – his management of the GFC and his creation of the NBN were excellent, and some of his other ideas were good but poorly-sold (i.e. the resources tax), but that on the whole, he leaves a rather light legacy. I think we’d all have been better off if he’d been a little less Barrie Unsworth and a little more Neville Wran.

    As for Bob – that’s a bit of a ridiculous comparison to make when, unlike Rudd, the man hasn’t been PM. As a Senator, he’s done a hell of a lot – and compares favourably to just about any Labor Senator of the period.

  8. [This doesn’t mean I don’t believe he didn’t do some good]

    ????

    Could you bring yourself to simply say Kevin Rudd did some good?

  9. [Opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison says this changes nothing.

    “What the Prime Minister is doing is continuing to go along the same political path that Kevin Rudd did on population to put off decisions until after an election,” he said.

    “What she needs to do is actually release a policy. Changing the name of a minister is just like changing the wrapping.

    “She’s got to release a policy – you’ve got to actually outline policies in this area.”]

    Just about the funniest thing I have read from Morrison and he has said a lot of very “funny” things. Including that his comments were not policy.

    When will the Libs actually release policy?

  10. my say,

    If you’re still interested, Armenians lived in small communities throughout the Middle East & Eastern Europe as merchants or other professionals- much in the same way as Jews did in the same area. So I think Hockey’s family would have been Armenians resident in Palestine for a long time, with their occupations and membership of the Armenian (Monophysite) Church as the main distinctions from other Christian Palestinians.

  11. Rebecca,

    You say Rudd ran a small target strategy. Sure, that’s why all those entrenched power groups have been baying for his blood.

    Brown, “he’s done a hell of a lot”. More like he’s filled in time while life has passed him by.

  12. I can see a number of reasons Hy Rudd was moved aside. The main thing as his style. reports that behind the seasons Rudd’s personality as not what you saw on camera. Yes he had an academic approach to policy. His argument and debate became rather bland, correct but bland. The message was not getting out. There was concern that Labor could be tripped up with simplicity (The Abbot approach) confronting Rudd the academic argument. The truth can be found in Gillard’s statements. She does not want to see the return of the Abbott work choices the risk as too great. The message was being lost in the content. Sure there is a Gender factor which is working in Gillard’s favour. If they waited until after the election Gillard would have had to wait that much longer and Julie Bishop would take the leadership of the Liberal Party thus the ALP would have lost the advantage and the Historical record. The timing as right. In two weeks time most will not remember Rudd in the same way most do not remember Hawke or Keating. Hell I have already forgotten about Howard. (It helps to forget painful events) I can only repeat that the Rudd autocratic academic style did not go down to well, he was not winning hearts or minds. One friend was very concerned about the secular nature of Rudd’s beliefs. Religion and State do not mix well. He referred to Rudd as a God bother and he was reluctant to support him. Personally I am pleased that religion is not used as a political tool in determining government policy.

    Does anyone know why the ABC does not include insiders on its iView webcast?

  13. [I was chatting a couple of days ago with some (Timorese) friends in East Timor, and they told me that all the talk up there was about how peacefully Australia had managed to change its PM, and how envious they felt about it.]

    Next time you speak to your friends tell them that we have an excellent second hand PM they can take for a test drive.

  15. [don’t think that rudd has any chance of becoming PM again UNLESS he can use his downfall as the basis for a new narrative (contrite, more inclusive, more open, less controlling). Maybe he should go to a monastery for a while. ]

    my goodness me thats boarding on being quite hurtfull to our Kevin why would he want to go to a monastery he HAS a wonderful wife and wonderful children .
    to give him solace why would he leave them and go away on his own, now every one who has a good marriage knows the best place for healing whether it be mind or spirit is in ones home and around all the people that love you and you love them

    they are obviously very very devoted, something with the large divorce figures in our country is a lovley welcome change to see
    and any way he is not a catholic its about time you may be ask abbott why he left the monastry.

    what on earth did you mean .

    i am afraid a lot of you people loose me here with your over the top talking re narrative etc you should talk down a little to us ordinary folk who actually vote labor no mater what

  20. Bob Brown has ensured Australia will not have a price on carbon for at least the next decade. He helped Mark Latham lose the 2004 election and is in the process of helping Tony Abbot lose the 2010 election. That’s certainly an impressive list of ‘achievements’

  21. Armenians lived in small communities throughout the Middle East & Eastern Europe as merchants or other professionals- much in the same way as Jews did in the same area.

    So I think Hockey’s family would have been Armenians resident in Palestine for a long time, with their occupations and membership of the Armenian (Monophysite) Church as the main distinctions from other Christian Palestinians.

    I read somewhere that Hockey’s grandfather was appointed administrator of Palestine by the British after WW1 – so that fits in with what you posted.

  22. e n
    not sure. Could it be a thousand boats, or three consecutive terms of Gillard Governments, whichever comes first?

  23. my say
    You can add to your list what has been labelled the worst policy failure in Australia’s history. Timor, where Howard’s policies resulted in a massacre & blood bath.
    What ever happened to the shifty deals on those MRI machines & Dr.Worledge?
    Ah Let’s not forget Howard’s brother Stan.
    Who was it that sold two third of Australia’s gold reserves at rock bottom bargain basement prices & lost us billions??? Costello anyone?
    The stuffed up privatisation of Telstra.
    Don’t seem to hear much about Nelson’s stuffed up defence purchase costing us tons.
    We don’t hear about the Liberal party members who rushed out and registered their Nuke waste companies to secure contracts from the government. Never mind at this time Ziggy’s report had not been made public, nor the fact that Howard was signing a treaty to take the world’s nuke waste.
    Oh pleassssseeeeee my say.
    Don’t get me started on Howard. It’s like some ongoing nightmare that refuses to end.

  25. Senator Brown went and stood with the climate-deniers, Senators Abetz, Joyce and Bernardi, to vote down the most significant climate change legislation ever presented to the Australian parliament.

  29. [One friend was very concerned about the secular nature of Rudd’s beliefs. Religion and State do not mix well. He referred to Rudd as a God bother and he was reluctant to support him. Personally I am pleased that religion is not used as a political tool in determining government policy]

    people that call them selves christian on the last census was about 65 percent

    so he went to church these days that is not as high as it was , but he never ask the cameras to go to Sunday church, and tell me what he did other wise.
    Stem Cell research is ok by him,. etc. ask abbott what he thinks about stem cell research

    ivf and the night after pill. i am a catholic but not Abbott’s type and am wondering what he would do about the things the catholic church do not believe in no one has bothered to ask him and any way would it be written down
    But as a woman i would like to know.
    Mr. Rudd showed respect for woman and in no way did he tell us what to do or how to live our life give me one example .

  30. I was just listening to Sarah Hanson-Young on Agenda. She is genuinely a nice person but I find her, look so many others firmly implanted on Skyland, INFURIATING.

    Apparently she wants Gillard to tell the people that they have nothing to fear from Boatpeople arriving on our shores so that they will accept them. CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!.

    How out of touch, unrealistic and LOONY can you get?

    The Greenies have already cost Labor a hero PM, through Rudd accepting a mining tax proposed by a Green in Ken Henry.

    The Greens are BAD news!

    Centre’s Golden Rule of Winning Elections in Federal Politics:

    * if the Greens support a policy – it is bad policy,
    * if the Greens oppose a policy – it is good policy,
    * the more the Greens support a policy – the worse it is AND
    * the more the Greens oppose a policy – the better it is.

  32. [Don’t forget Steve Fielding.]

    gg, yes, and Senator Minchin. What elevated company the Greens Senators choose when it comes to voting on climate change legislation.

  33. briefly:

    [Equally strange to say, this is an argument in favour of factional leaders, who at least have an eye on the political atmospherics.]

    I think it’s far too soon to be trumpeting the strategic brilliance of the 4 hatchetmen with Gillard less than one week into her new job!

    At some point Gillard is going to have to make a decision about the RSPT, climate change and asylum seekers. Whichever way she goes is likely to effect a poll drop of either left or right-leaning voters. So let’s just wait and see what happens.

  34. [1522 Dee
    Posted Sunday, June 27, 2010 at 5:25 pm | Permalink
    my say
    You can add to your list what has been labelled the worst policy failure in Australia’s history. Timor, where Howard’s policies resulted in a massacre & blood bath.
    What ever happened to the shifty deals on those MRI machines & Dr.Worledge?]

    thanks Dee i am having senior moments at 60 i had forgotten some of these thing.
    Problem is was it a young person who is green said about kevin re policy as i said a lot of them need a good histroy book that has not bee written in front of them
    Gosh dee there is a good boog there some where.

    After Howard went i kepthing 4 corners or some one would do some stories on some of the stuff you mentioned but nothing silly me

  38. [This doesn’t mean I don’t believe he didn’t do some good – his management of the GFC and his creation of the NBN were excellent, and some of his other ideas were good but poorly-sold (i.e. the resources tax), but that on the whole, he leaves a rather light legacy.]

    You forgot the PPL scheme – first time in our history.

    Basically BB has done bugger all except carp and complain from the wings. That’s got to be the easiest gig in politics.

  39. [At some point Gillard is going to have to make a decision about the RSPT, climate change and asylum seekers.]

    True, but an election may intervene.

  40. [Health Reform aagainst the Insurance funds stymied by the Senate
    Alcopops against the Liquor Lobby finally won after two years.
    The NBN against the Telstra Three Amigos who treated the Libs with contempt.
    Hospital Reform against the States. Entertaining draw.
    CPRS Had a deal until the Libs changed Leader.
    Tax Reform versus the Mininig Lobby (and rear guard backsliders like yourself).
    Education Reform with My School against the Teachers Unions.]

    And paid parental leave, arguably one of the most significant workforce participation reforms of my generation.

  42. [The Greens oppose Workchoices]

    Hmmm, maybe some elements of workchoices, the ones the Greens opposed, had merit.

  43. [When will Abbott dump his PPL scheme? The increase in company tax must be hurting?]

    Not to mention his plan to increase the GST to 15%

  46. @1470, yes I agree with your analysis, but you leave out a host of changes under Rudd that *did* make a difference to real people – such as raising the single pension.

    And you totally ignored the single biggest thing Rudd did that did require courage and leadership and did affect hundreds of thousands of people directly and personally, and that was keep them in jobs with the stimulus.

    Now, why don’t people love him for that? I’m sure you’re going to reply that ironically, because Rudd was so successful, people are now going GFC? what GFC. And you’d be partly right. But the simple message that the stimulus worked was one that kept not getting enough oxygen because of the toxic media. I doubt Rudd, Julia, or anyone could have done any better selling themselves as a good thing for the ordinary bloke, given the utter bastardry of the media.

  47. [Ms Gillard said she would submit herself to the judgement of the Australian people.

    “It’s their birthright. They get a vote. They’ll have that opportunity very soon. I am happy to be judged by all on the my performance as prime minister in the national interest.”]

    “They’ll have that opportunity very soon.” Do it Jools, August and blow the Rabble away. 🙂

  48. [None of these, with the exception of the CPRS, is a vote changer for the average person. They’re technical things, quite possibly improvements, but things that really don’t matter a damn in the life of most people.]

    The value of reform shouldn’t be whether it represents a vote changer or not. As for “technical things”, electoral reform could be regarded as a non-vote changer, but still be important and necessary in making improvements to the system.

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