Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  1. They found the plane, all dead. Funny though that Ken Talbot will now be a national hero rather than a man facing charges of bribing a pollie for a better deal.

  2. Still waiting for fibre to be rolled out to my house…. could be next century knowing this government.

    Typical FYIGMer. You’re a laissez-fairist when the government is helping other people but not you (“They should get jobs! Stop wasting my taxpayer money!” etc.) but you are the first with your grubby hand extended out when the government offers something you could benefit from.

  3. Anyway, not to sound like a know-it-all, but if I weren’t rigidly opposed to pseudosciences, I would swear I’m psychic! I said yesterday there would be a rushed poll declaring that Rudd is in trouble in the marginals, just to take the attention off yesterday’s two good polls for Labor.

    This report is actually a very desperate one from the pro-Liberal forces. Any sign that the Liberals could win is better than the truth. Hey, Dennis, Mars is crossing Jupiter in the sky at the moment, wanna maybe look into that as a sign of Rudd’s inevitable defeat?

    And to the Liberals fapping themselves silly over the prospect of marginal campaign victory, go ahead. Marginal campaigns tend to favour governments (who have less to lose) than oppositions.

    Also marginal voters are probably the ones who think hardest about their votes (they know it’s possible that it might come down to their vote on the night, of who may form the next government.) They don’t vote lightly, and they certainly don’t protest vote. They are also notoriously indecisive until the last two or so weeks of the campaign. I believe their were plenty of “saving graces” for Howard in 2007, claiming despite his poll deficits, he was ahead in key marginals.

  4. On Lindsay, together with comments above, particularly undertaking the poll at the same time as a large part of the electorate was swingig their baseball bats at the state government, another consideration for a swing in a mortgage belt seat be that mortgage rates have risen a reasonable amount over the last 6 months (albeit on a low base)

  5. [They are also notoriously indecisive until the last two or so weeks of the campaign. I believe their were plenty of “saving graces” for Howard in 2007, claiming despite his poll deficits, he was ahead in key marginals.]

    Spot on TSo Pebbles – Howard was set to lose a lot more seats until the last ten days or so when some voters got a bit spooked at the thought of him not being around any more. He was like a security blanket to them. Labor was on to win a lot more but it was pegged back.

    I reckon the OO and Shamaham thought the election would be August so they’ve had their plans ready to throw the kitchen sink at Labor. It’s a commercial operation so they’re entitled to do that – I just don’t agree that the marginals can be judged properly until Labor gets out and does some campaigning.

    The ABC is another matter tho – the blatant, almost word for word, reporting of stories taken from the OO is a disappointment. I don’t remember the ABC using Labor’s media releases verbatim in 2007.

    Frank – I watched the 39 Minutes clip – thanks. Tara Brown’s ego was full and frontal. The thing that is worrying me is that Labor and Kev, in particular, seem to accept it when interviewers say everything is a mess. We need some muscling up soon.

  6. Mars is crossing Jupiter in the sky at the moment

    Sorry, that should be Uranus, and it’s actually being crossed (transited) by Jupiter.

    Don’t post after you first wake up!

  7. Laocoon – good point re the mortgage rate because Lindsay has lots of ‘wanna be’ areas and the private debt is probably quite high.

    Bradbury needs to have some flyers around with the ‘Coalition’s 10 interest rates in a row’ prominent. It will be the hip pocket out there but the thought of workchoices again might be a goer for Bradbury too. Broadband definitely would be.

    It will be interesting to see the polling develop now that the voters have had their fury released at the by election.

  8. [Don’t post after you first wake up!]

    What else is there to do when everyone else is asleep, including the dog. Mistakes accepted by those up who didn’t even realise a mistake had been made (that’s me, Pebbles)!!

  9. BH 105

    I think one the worst things that media outlets are guilty of (whether by accident or by design) is the omission of quotation marks in a headline that’s based on a quote or paraphrase.

    eg. let’s say a Liberal frontbencher says that this government is the most incompetent government in the nation’s history.

    While I don’t like using quotes in headlines here’s how you should do it:

    Liberals/[person who said it]: ‘Rudd government most incompetent in Australia’s history’ = good

    Rudd government ‘most incompetent in nation’s history’ = ok, slightly misleading but still fair

    whereas

    Rudd government most incompetent in nation’s history = is very bad. The omission of the quotation marks make it look like it is a newly discovered fact that needs to be reported, not just somebody’s opinion.

    Similarly, notice the difference between:

    Abbott: ‘Time for Rudd to go and
    Abbott: Time for Rudd to go

    or

    Voters: ‘Remove Rudd’ and
    Voters: Remove Rudd

    In both of those scenarios, one looks like a quote/paraphrase/summary, whereas the other looks like a command.

    As I said, I don’t know whether it is accident or not, but it affects the visual literacy of the article.

  11. Pbbbles – OH up and he just watched Tara Brown’s interview with Kev & Therese.

    He is one of the most apolitical and placid blokes you could get – just not interested apart from casting his vote when necessary. If it wasn’t compulsory I doubt he’d even go.

    After watching the clip he was livid and was almost yelling at me that something has to be done about them. How dare they ask a PM if he’s gutless, etc. etc.!! How is the Govt. incompetent and wasteful after the b… spending Howard did. On and on he went and he still hasn’t simmered down. Spoiled his breakfast something awful!

    So now he’s demanding that I do something about them – told him to come up with what he wants done and then to get on the phone while he’s still riled up.

    I’m hoping that that is the reaction of a lot of people like my OH.

  12. I shouldn’t encourage BB, but if you were ever going to cook a poll, why not a marginals one, since there won’t be a comporable one soon to expose any cooking…

    Except the national polls, of course, which are certainly inconsistent with this one! As even that Psephy guy posted earlier

  14. I am hoping the right wingers hubris gets the better of them and their message starts becoming of how foolish the voters were for voting for Labor (they’re capable of it. A couple had a similar message in 2007 – including Tony) because that will just wash with the voters perfectly.

    As I said yesterday, this is going to be the defining fortnight for Rudd. With polls on his side, he can take the momentum back. The righties know this and are going to throw everything at him, including the kitchen sink and, hopefully, their electoral appeal. If he survives relatively unscathed culminated in another good Newspoll, expect an August election.

  15. [if you were ever going to cook a poll, why not a marginals one]

    Imagine the scene in the boardroom at News Ltd around 6.00 PM on Sunday with the ‘numbers’ on the table. Shamahan is asked to explain how is promise of a Rudd annihilation has failed. Sham says “Sorry boss, I’ll put the best spin on it tonight – I’ll push the narrowing on the PPM as the main story, in fact it’ll be the only story.” “Not good enough” says Mitchell “I want a story about how Labor will lose the election. Give me that story within 24 hours or you’re washed up.” Sham makes the call to the good people at Newspoll and asks for some of the raw data on all marginals across the land where polling took place even if the sample size was less than 10 people. Sham then spends all of Monday afternoon scrounging through the raw data and concocts his BS story which might just save his skin for another 2 weeks. Meanwhile the good folk at Newspoll sit back stunned at the totally unscientific use of the data and the corruption of the process.

    Possible?

    If this were true and it was ever exposed it would be Sham who is discredited not Newspoll. Murdoch and his minions have committed far worse ‘distortions’ and been found out yet continue to be the most quoted privately owned news organisation on the planet.

  17. How good was Craig Emerson last night for those who watched Q&A?
    Very articulate, passionate and does it all with a twinkle in his eye.
    Loved his little wedge of Turnbull by forcing him to admit he supports a profits based resource tax. Now there’s a story the lazy mainstream media should be sniffing out – “Turnbull opposes Abbott on profit tax”.
    Malcom was very Machiavellian last night; when he’s not being consumed by his own hubris he can be very watchable.
    Sarah Hansen-young cost the greens about 2% primary support I reckon – she was hopeless.

  19. Craig Emerson is one of the best speakers for the Rudd government. He is good at being level headed and constructing a an articulate argument.

    Sarah Hanson-Young is a bleating attention seeker. She comes from a spoiled background and has never gotten over it. She shoots her mouth off (read her twitter – it’s hilarious) and then goes and hides behind uncle Bob when the fire is returned back. However her supporters will still, like a church choir, say things like “Go Sarah, you tell it like it is!” etc. she will get re-elected in 2013, and a Green will probably be elected to the Senate this year for SA, only because SA Labor and Family First hate each other (thank heavens! I don’t want to enable those fundamentalists!) and the Greens are the best choice to do preference deals with.

  20. Murdoch reminds me of an evil Bond character who is planning world domination.

    The bad guy, played ably by Jonathan Pryce, from Tomorrow Never Dies (a forgettable action film barely qualifying as a Bond film) was based on Rupert Murdoch.

  21. I might have missed it, but does anyone know the sample size in each electorate? Completely agree with Psephos at #2. A close election should mean marginals going both ways.

  23. Kevin Rennie 121

    Unless the swing to the ALP are in the seats where people thinks that the mining industry have no impact on our economy…. these would tends to be safe ALP seats

  25. Oh my god, dovif! Please don’t say that. That will positively make Rudd look bad! If you Liberals, especially your parliamentary representatives, starting throwing that talking point out everywhere, we’d be doomed!

    Whatever you do, make sure you don’t let the Libs start saying that kind of stuff. Rudd will be finished if you do!

  27. Possum Comitatus #56

    I’m waiting for a certain One Nation candidate in the 98 election to kick the bucket so I can tell the story of infiltrating the party in the bible belt, and what was really going

    Possum, I hope I live long enough! We came out of that election with PH’s ON to the north & east. Had it not been for the “performances”/ proclivities of the leaders of the Logos Foundation & Magnificat Meal Movement, ON might have done much better in the area.

    Those examining today’s Newspoll “marginal” results – NB they’re only ALP “marginals”, not LNP ones – it’s interesting to compare the Federal seats with the 1998 One Nation results

    ON won Whitsunday (Dawson), Hervey Bay (Hinkler), Caboolture (Longman), Maryborough (Wide Bay), Burdekin (Dawson), Tablelands (Kennedy), Ipswich West (Blair), Barambah (Maranoa), Lockyer (Blair), Thuringowa (Herbert)

    In 2009 State Elections, Independents won: Gladstone (Flynn) Maryborough (Hinkler) Nanango (Maranoa/Dickson) Nicklin (Fisher/ Wide Bay)

    So parts of Flynn, Dawson (not being contested by the incumbent) and Longman have histories of volatility & flirtation with RW politics (inc racist & religious right).

  29. [QUEENSLAND could gain its second new political party in a month.

    A former state Labor MP and a former media adviser to the Liberals have announced the formation of a centrist party – the Republican Democrats.

    Party CEO Peter Pyke, a former police officer and Labor MP, said the “RepDems” will be unfettered by the “outdated left-right models of the past”.

    Mr Pyke said the new party heralded the end of “Ford versus Holden” politics in Australia.

    Co-founder Graham Higgins, previously an adviser to a Liberal federal minister and party president, said the Republican democrats will be a moderate force in national politics.

    “(We’ll) appeal to people in the broad centre, including Australians on the intelligent left and the compassionate right.

    “We constitute a party for thinking voters who take their politics seriously, as well as those of us who no longer see value in former affiliations,” Mr Higgins said.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/former-labor-mp-peter-pyke-forms-new-political-party-the-republican-democrats/story-e6frea73-1225882568284

    Interesting! Will be good to see where this goes. It has the potential to win my first preference vote away from the Greens!

  30. [And yes, I will be using my old Twitter for political commentary. I’m splitting my Twits (so to speak) because I want to keep the Psephos website and its associated Twitter page non-partisan.]

    so you do an undate of our election on a seperate twit

  31. Tom Hawkins #115

    Imagine the scene in the boardroom at News Ltd around 6.00 PM on Sunday with the ‘numbers’ on the table. Shamahan is asked to explain how is promise of a Rudd annihilation has failed. Sham says “Sorry boss, I’ll put the best spin on it tonight – I’ll push the narrowing on the PPM as the main story, in fact it’ll be the only story.”

    Ah, Tom! Remember that Murdoch’s Minions confessed to sitting around the table and “creating” the news! (It will be on “The Drum’s” archives – Chris Mitchell’s confession, from memory)!

    Like Abbott, TheOz says whatever suits the purpose. Only if it’s “scripted”, “gospel truth” should we believe that what we’re hearing/seeing is anything other than a bare-faced lie!

    BTW: I’d love to have been a fly on the wall when the Newspoll results came in! All that massive beatup – even commercial TV & Radio were repeating the “leadership challenge” and “Rudd’s poll results are dire” – ABC had even tweaked its 2006 profile of Julia + the “dire poll results” story for last night’s Australian Story in anticipation. Some even repeated it last night …

    So in MSMland, “dire” 52/48 2PP, (almost the same as Election 2007) = “returned probably with all seats”.

    Unbelievable!

  33. How seriously do we regard the assertion that Green preferences could be significantly less than 80%. It seems to me that the election may well depend on that factor.

  34. [Imagine the scene in the boardroom at News Ltd around 6.00 PM on Sunday with the ‘numbers’ on the table. Shamahan is asked to explain how is promise of a Rudd annihilation has failed. Sham says “Sorry boss, I’ll put the best spin on it tonight – I’ll push the narrowing on the PPM as the main story, in fact it’ll be the only story.”]

    a few years ago i did a writing course and it was continued around the class we all added out narrative. gee that would be great fun but william would not be happy.

  35. From someone live-tweeting the Rudd/Abbott address to the christian lobby last night:

    [# Abbott: Aboriginal people need to pick up tools and make something of their lives. #ausvotes about 12 hours ago via TweetDeck]

    Why am I not surprised such an offensive statement would be uttered by him?

    http://twitter.com/ethicl

  36. On the marginal seat polling reports, weren’t we told the same thing last election by Shanahan, ie that the coalition were holding “key marginal seats”, even though they weren’t leading in the popular vote?

  37. [How seriously do we regard the assertion that Green preferences could be significantly less than 80%. It seems to me that the election may well depend on that factor.]

    It was around only 65% in WA at the last state election.

  38. dovif

    Your suggestion would have validity if Rudd was a member of NSW Labor, but he aint. You had better go back to the drawing board.

  40. “Sarah Hansen-young cost the greens about 2% primary support I reckon – she was hopeless.”

    Agree she did some major damage to the Greens credibility last night particularly given the viewing audience of Q&A would consist of a large number of greens voters. She could of quite easily said that she would advise greens voters to allocate their preferences to the party with policies aligned to the Greens but she was all over the place. By the way how much faith should be put in a 5 seat marginal seat poll – News limited seem to be clutching a proverbial straws now.

  41. It was around only 65% in WA at the last state election.

    That’s just because Troy Buswell is so damn sexy! 😉

    I kid! I kid!

  43. [After watching the clip he was livid and was almost yelling at me that something has to be done about them. How dare they ask a PM if he’s gutless, etc. etc.!! How is the Govt. incompetent and wasteful after the b… spending Howard did. On and on he went and he still hasn’t simmered down. Spoiled his breakfast something awful!]

    but that bit not on the text of the programme mmm

    I noticed an email area but they would take no notice, i love to be able to speak to one of them.
    It is disgraceful but i dont think he does there programe much good. Imagine if some one had said that to Howard.

    so whats the concenses email or ignore them , I havent watched it for years it became a difference type of programe when that ameican person who first produced it left.

    So was then when jess said something

    They actully need some new faces when i see the adds i just think o is he/she still there.

  44. [Your suggestion would have validity if Rudd was a member of NSW Labor, but he aint. You had better go back to the drawing board.]

    No, but NSW Labor controls the Labor agenda. So much of a muchness really.

  46. Just read the OO report on the marginals and Shanahan’s interpretation of them. Hmmm. More than a bit suss, I’d say. I’d want to know a lot of things about them before I give them any credence – first among which is sample size, and next the reason why the three Qld seats are lumped together. The other thing I want to know is when the OO first announced there would be a report on these marginals – was it Sunday night?

    I also note the video bit (with the large picture of Shana attempting to look trustworthy) has a link referring to “another grim Newspoll for Labor.” That’s misleading, considering Labor gained and has a 52-48 lead.

    That was echoed, btw, by the items on ABC radio – I believe it was News Radio – yesterday morning, which headlined with wtte (I’m pretty sure that’s word-for-word) “Labor fails to make up ground” in the polls (note plural). The first thing anyone would think hearing that is, “Oh, how far behind are they, then?”

  47. Good luck to them, I reckon. We need a centre party in the Senate. Glen might even be pleased (although the Republican part might scare him – although our system is essentially Republican anyway)

  48. Psephos @ 70

    I’m talking about the US Republican Party in the 19th century, when it was run by Boston brahmins with names like Endicott Winthrop III and Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.

    Damn that racist Abraham Lincoln!

    Of the seven 19th century Republican presidents, all but one came from the mid-west.

  49. [That was echoed, btw, by the items on ABC radio – I believe it was News Radio – yesterday morning, which headlined with wtte (I’m pretty sure that’s word-for-word) “Labor fails to make up ground” in the polls (note plural). The first thing anyone would think hearing that is, “Oh, how far behind are they]

    ring them let them know you heard we are not stupid out here in stupid land you know

    we are not the walking dead we can think for ourselves

  50. Of the seven 19th century Republican presidents, all but one came from the mid-west.

    Their powerbrokers were based in Northeastern economic centres, such as Boston, NYC and Philadelphia.

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