Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  4. john,

    [Oh yeah, Leichardt. Does anyone know how Jim Turnour is doing up there? He gets a lot of Dorothy Dixers.]

    I think Noel Pearson is doing him some damage up there with the “wild rivers” issue.

    I really don’t understand why Pearson hasn’t put his hand up for the Libs so far. Probably because he is seen as a bit of a divisive figure amongst the tribal groups on the cape.

    Howard sure loved him and vice versa. 😉

  6. John – you’ve got to wait till they die to say things like that.

    I’m waiting for a certain One Nation candidate in the 98 election to kick the bucket so I can tell the story of infiltrating the party in the bible belt, and what was really going on.

  9. The Qld senate spots look interesting too. We might get another independent now that Labor isn’t directing preferences to the Coalition away from Pauline Hanson.

  10. Question for anyone of ypu guys who watched Q&A.

    What did you think of Malcolm’s performance? He was very conciliatory about Abbott? What’s his move going to be?

    Does he want Labor to win so he can get the leadership back or will he suffer under Abbott? If Abbott can win, he’ll cement the leadership for a term at least, wouldn’t he?

  13. Psephos@55

    There used to be a very sound rule in the old WASP days of he Republican Party never to run a candidate whose name ended in a vowel. (Sorry Frank)

    So how come Albo is so successful ? They could dewoggify their name to Gambar 🙂

  15. @Psephos

    Wyatt Roy is 20. He used to be a Young LIb at UQ, but I suspect he won preselection because he hinted he might sit with the Nationals if he won. His family are farmers, and the Nationals always outnumbered the Libs in terms of membership.

  16. [Exactly the point I was trying to make in 2 above. If Labor polls 52% of the national 2PV it will win the election, and no amount of trying to find local variations will alter that fact.]

    Not according to numerous news reports I’ve seen today including Laurie Oakes.

    If Labor only polls 35% Primary at the election then they are goooooonnnnne. 😉

  18. The protest polling has to come back from the Greens, then the primary will become more normal. Essential’s primary was 38 … with the same 2PP wasn’t it?

  19. Gus, your mind would boggle! One Nation was dangerous because of the people that tried to take it over out in the boonies. It’s a tale that has it all – drug money, racist lynch mobs and ex-coppers up the wazoo.

  20. [pseph is talking about the Fibs]

    I’m talking about the US Republican Party in the 19th century, when it was run by Boston brahmins with names like Endicott Winthrop III and Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.

  23. [What did you think of Malcolm’s performance? He was very conciliatory about Abbott? What’s his move going to be?

    Does he want Labor to win so he can get the leadership back or will he suffer under Abbott? If Abbott can win, he’ll cement the leadership for a term at least, wouldn’t he?]

    I reckon Turnbull is waiting for Tone to implode and he will step in to save the Libs from a potential crushing defeat.

    If Tone leaves “that” to the last minute, then Turnbull is positioned to immediately step back in after the election with an enhanced mandate to reshape the Party.

    If that doesn’t happen and Tone wins, then Turnbull’s dream of becoming PM dies with it. He’ll just hang around for a couple of Months and pull the pin and move on.

  24. [Not according to numerous news reports I’ve seen today including Laurie Oakes.

    If Labor only polls 35% Primary at the election then they are goooooonnnnne.]

    This is a complete myth. Australian elections are decided by the 2PV in each seat, and thus by the aggregate of 150 2PVs, which is the national 2PV. A party could poll 1% of the primary vote in every seat and win the election, provided they don’t come last in at least 76 seats and everyone else preferences them. Ask Steve Fielding, elected with 1.8% of the vote.

  25. Malcolm looked very tired to me. I wonder whether he is regretting hos change of mind.

    Anybody got any inside scoop? When he changed his mind about leaving, did he think Abbott was about to implode?

  26. Behold Henry Hewson, elected for McMillan in 1972 with 16.6% of the primary vote. Any candidate can win a seat provided they don’t come last in the primary vote.

    McMILLAN, Vic 52,621 enrolled, 50,767 (96.5%) voted
    ====================================================================
    Eastern Victoria: Moe, Morwell, Pakenham, Warragul
    ——————————————————————–
    1969 two-party majority: Liberal over ALP 05.3
    ——————————————————————–
    Barrie Armitage Lib 12,025 24.1 (-08.0)
    Alexander Buchanan * 3,113 06.3
    Henry Hewson CP 8,282 16.6 (-00.3)
    Michael Houlihan DLP 3,583 07.2 (-01.8)
    Frank Mountford ALP 22,802 45.8 (+03.7)
    ——————————————————————–
    962 (01.9%) informal 49,805
    ——————————————————————–
    Buchanan had lost his Liberal Party endorsement and stood as an
    independent Liberal.
    ——————————————————————–

    2nd count: Buchanan’s 3,113 votes distributed
    ——————————————————————–
    Armitage 810 (26.0) 12,835 25.8
    Hewson 1,980 (63.6) 10,262 20.6
    Houlihan 138 (04.4) 3,721 07.5
    Mountford 185 (05.9) 22,987 46.2
    ——————————————————————–
    > 3,113 49,805
    ——————————————————————–

    3rd count: Houlihan’s 3,721 votes distributed
    ——————————————————————–
    Armitage 391 (10.5) 13,226 26.6
    Hewson 3,144 (84.5) 13,406 26.9
    Mountford 186 (05.0) 23,173 46.5
    ——————————————————————–
    > 3,721 49,805
    ——————————————————————–

    4th count: Armitage’s 13,226 votes distributed
    ——————————————————————–
    HEWSON 12,690 (95.9) 26,096 52.4
    Mountford 536 (04.1) 23,709 47.6
    ——————————————————————–
    > 13,226 49,805 02.4 02.9 to ALP
    ——————————————————————–

  27. #74

    The smallest first preference count that I have seen (and there may be others because I haven’t done an exhaustive search) for a successful candidate is 19% (from memory).

  28. Turnbull’s original plan (when he changed his mind about departing the scene) would have been to position himself to retake the leadership after Abbott solidly lost the election.

    I can’t see the strategy changing unless his impatience gets the better of him. The original logic still stands, and as we’ve been saying here it is still most likely at the moment that Rudd will be returned.

    He will bide his time. For now he will make enough on-side noises to not rock the boat, but try to rebuild his statesman image.

  29. Watching Q&A tonight, I despair for the younger demographic in our political process if Sarah Hanson-Young of The Greens and Jessica Brown from the Centre for Independent Studies are representative of the under 30’s cohort in public life.

    If someone like Brown, an alleged ‘policy analyst,’ doesn’t understand that the Government has to finance it’s programmes, like an increase in Superannuation Guarantee Levy, from taxation, then just what are these think tanks actually doing that enhances public policy? If I was one of the Directors of the Centre for Independent Studies, I’d be carpetting Brown tomorrow and asking some probing questions about her value to their organisation.

    As for Sarah Hanson-Young, I’ve seen better presentations of an argument on an issue from high school debaters! And this manifestly ill-equipped person is a Member of Parliament?? Dr Bob Brown should moth ball her from media scrutiny for the rest of the political year, as she will drive voters away from The Greens in droves every time she opens her mouth on the evidence of this evening’s appalling performance.

  31. [He will bide his time. For now he will make enough on-side noises to not rock the boat, but try to rebuild his statesman image.]

    And hope that everyone forgets his incredible stupidity and lack of judgement in 2009. Some chance.

    *good night*

  32. Was just looking ore closely at the Essential figures … Both leaders numbers as preferred leader are almost identical to Mar 10 (Abbott’s is exactly the same).

    I think if Abbott was going to make any real impression, with all the ‘help’ he’s had in the way of free positive publicity … shouldn’t he have made it by now?

    Maybe that’s what is making Malcolm tired and sad. He can see Abbott is dead in the water but he isn’t tanking any further wither, so he has no excuse to move on him.

  34. I really love the way that Shanners spins the most ridiculous lines. This is where the others have picked up the “death zone” 35% bit from.

    The other bit about Labor making history by removing a first-term leader has been shot to pieces now also. It was part of the grand plan that I outlined last night. The participants are running to script but the anticipated outcome of the “plan” is falling to pieces all around them.

    [TONY Abbott has suddenly closed on Kevin Rudd as the preferred prime minister by saying almost nothing.

    It’s the closest anyone has come to Rudd as prime minister by a country mile.

    Rudd’s leadership and electability remain the issues as the Labor government gathers for its most important week of parliament and decides whether to make history by removing a first-term leader.

    The Leader of the Opposition has played the last three weeks of crisis perfectly. For once, Abbott has exercised iron discipline and refused to change the political narrative by self-indulgently making himself the centre of attention and the story of the day.

    By being silent, or almost silent, Abbott has left Rudd and his Treasurer, Wayne Swan, to fight out the top bill with Australia’s resources sector over the proposed super-profits mining tax. For months, Rudd’s closest supporters have said Labor doesn’t have to worry about the collapse in primary support into the “fatal zone” of less than 40 per cent – now a steady 35 per cent – because Abbott was unelectable and Rudd still dominated on preferred prime minister in the polls. Make no mistake, the two most important figures in polling are the primary vote and the preferred prime minister’s vote. The two-party-preferred figure is a calculation based on the previous election and the satisfaction ratings are only a guide to how a leader of the opposition is travelling.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/leaders-silence-pays-off/story-e6frg6zo-1225882035591

  36. The Big Ship,

    [If someone like Brown, an alleged ‘policy analyst,’ doesn’t understand that the Government has to finance it’s programmes, like an increase in Superannuation Guarantee Levy, from taxation, then just what are these think tanks actually doing that enhances public policy?]

    Probably passing on brilliant campaign tips like this to Barnaby or suggesting media campaigns based on lemons! 😉

    [NATIONALS Senate leader Barnaby Joyce has declared that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd operates in a ”philosophical brothel”, run by the ”polling pimp”.

    His colourful attack came at the Nationals federal conference, where the party’s differences with the Liberals over the Murray-Darling and parental leave were on display.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-run-by-polling-pimp-joyce-says-20100620-yp7k.html

  37. At the 2007 election in Lindsay the primary votes were:

    ALP 51.4 (11.2 swing to them)
    Lib 38.2 (7.3 swing against)
    Greens 3.4 (0.4 against)

    Thus at the 2004 election it was:

    ALP 40.2
    Lib 45.5
    Greens 3.8

    According to this poll we are now at: ALP 34 Lib 47 Greens 7

    I don’t know what the 1996 result was, but has the ALP primary vote ever been that low in Lindsay?

    Also I am disappointed that there is no sample size given (though not surprised).

  38. Mithrandir,

    [Maybe Turnbull thinks he can undermine a PM Tony. Might be easier than winning an election from opposition.]

    If Abbott gets over the line then he will have enhanced backing from the far right wing and Malcolm won’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of rolling him.

    If Turnbull is forced to wait till after the election, Tone has got to lose or threaten to lose “badly” or Turnbull is finished and he knows it. This is the last roll of the dice for him.

  39. The fact that the Queensland seats were aggregated makes me suspect that Labor is holding on in Longman, while tanking in Dawson and Flynn, hence the overall figure.

    The Lindsay result is pretty devastating – it may be tempting to attribute it to the fact that it was taken during the Penrith by-election, but that doesn’t explain why Abbott is ahead on both net satisfaction and PPM there.

  41. I’ve heard a lot about Sarah Hansen Young, so thought I’d better see what all the fuss is about. I was pretty disappointed. She is a bit of a light weight. I guess she’ll develop in time. I sure hope so…

  42. Although I will probably get flamed as a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist but why did the Newspoll analysis on the marginals select the seats they did? I assume that Newspoll extracts out from its national sample those respondents from the marginals they have decided to test or do they actually sample a valid statistical number in each of the marginals? In any case why pick the seats they did? I am not suggesting a conspiracy just genuinely interested in the methodology and the reasoning behind it. I agree with Psephos, I have never witnessed a national swing that is evenly applied across the entire country. Individual seats swing for all sorts of reasons and I suspect that there are all sorts of explanations for why this poll in these seats has behaved in the way it has. I don’t accept the assertion that these polls necessarily translate into a narrative of Rudd and Labor in trouble in every marginal seat in NSW and QLD. Knowing NSW better than I know QLD, there is not a lot of similarity between Page and Lindsay. One an outer metropolitan mortgage belt seat, the other a seat changing from National Party Heartland into something defying simplistic definition. In an ideal world I would have preferred to see results from all NSW marginals to actually see whether it is possible to draw any conclusions.

  43. In shutting my other tabs before retiring, I realised there was an unsent post on the previous thread. I can’t waste it as it may get some reaction, so here it is. Night all.

    [The Coalition and its ABC Branch must see a few votes in bagging Labor over the resignation of the mental Health bod.

    It was a feature in the 7.00 News, run hard on the 7.30 Report and now getting a solid run on Lateline together with a clip of Abbott’s Question to Rudd in QT on it.

    Blimey, they don’t even try and disguise the blatant campaigning for the Liberal Party now. It’s 24/7 campaigning on every platform.

    News Ltd is being outdone by a far superior outfit now, their role is just to feed in the material to be bootstrapped by the experts in the field.]

  44. scorpio@93

    In shutting my other tabs before retiring, I realised there was an unsent post on the previous thread. I can’t waste it as it may get some reaction, so here it is. Night all.

    The Coalition and its ABC Branch must see a few votes in bagging Labor over the resignation of the mental Health bod.

    It was a feature in the 7.00 News, run hard on the 7.30 Report and now getting a solid run on Lateline together with a clip of Abbott’s Question to Rudd in QT on it.

    Blimey, they don’t even try and disguise the blatant campaigning for the Liberal Party now. It’s 24/7 campaigning on every platform.

    News Ltd is being outdone by a far superior outfit now, their role is just to feed in the material to be bootstrapped by the experts in the field.

    And as I type – it’s the issue of the day on Tony Delroy’s Nightlife.

    Their ABC – Bootstrappers par excellance 🙁

  45. Hanson Young is like a child playing dress-ups tottering along in high heels with misapplied lipstick. She’s a perfect illustration of a pseudo political progressive playing at politics

  47. hairy nose@95

    Hanson Young is like a child playing dress-ups tottering along in high heels with misapplied lipstick. She’s a perfect illustration of a pseudo political progressive playing at politics

    Careful, the Greens Mafia will say you are a chauvinist, just as I discovered when I described both Adele Carles and Hsien Harper in exactly the same way.

  48. Malcolm did well on tonights Q & A, I was quite impressed.

    The Greens chick seemed to be slipping and sliding all over the place, though I did agree with her point about punters deciding where their votes go not political parties.

    The hot looking chick made a good point about the government trying to bundle the GBNT on miners with other policies to try and get it through.

    The old Labor bloke was truthful and straight forward. The Labor minister on the other hand seemed to be completely full of crap.

  50. They finally found a scandal in the BER – one company rorting school kids, disgusting.

    They should have the book thrown at them the mongrels. Still it has taken all this time to find faults in 60 buildings out of over 24,000.

    Not big faults either by the way, just claims for work they didn’t do.

    Gotta love Australians don’t you? Any chance to rip each other off and some will take it.

    On a more serious note, it is definitely an OZ conspiracy – all the newsltd stable have the same op-ed about Rudd. Anyone would think he shot all their grannies.

    Actually the way he is slandered over and over again would have me bringing out the lawyers.

    Howard was not treated like this over two illegal wars for pete’s sake, but then I guess the Murdoch ranters still love that particular fine disaster.

    Two reports will be made in the next few days about the hellish conditions on Christmas island, guess though Rudd will continue to pander to the redneck clowns.

    I wonder though at the chutzpah of Twigs. Off there signing big new deals with the Chinese and still claiming he will lose money.

    Ken Henry put it into perspective though – I do wish our juvenile media would get it through their skulls that governments don’t have to negotiate taxes with vested interests. It is their right under the constitution.

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