Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Full results available from Peter Brent at Mumble. Labor’s 52-48 lead is a slight improvement on 51-49 from three weeks ago, and under the circumstances will come as an enormous relief for the Prime Minister. One sting in the tail is that Labor’s primary vote remains steady on a parlous 35 per cent. The Coalition is down one point to 40 per cent and the Greens are on 15 per cent, one point off their record-breaking effort from three weeks ago. The two-point slack has been taken up by “others” on 10 per cent.

Another sting in the tail is that the preferred prime minister rating has swung to Abbott: Rudd is down three points to 46 per cent and Abbott is up four to 37 per cent, which is respectively a personal worst and the best result achieved by a Liberal leader on Rudd’s watch. This is despite the fact that the leaders’ approval ratings are basically unchanged. Kevin Rudd’s approval is steady on 36 per cent and his disapproval is up a point to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively up a point to 38 per cent and steady on 49 per cent.

A further question on prospective standard of living produces a neutral result: “improve” and “get worse” are both on 17 per cent, with 65 per cent nominating “stay the same”.

Next cab off the rank: Essential Research, which should be through at about 1pm EST.

UPDATE: Hats off to Dennis Shanahan, who shows he’s not scared of a renewed round of opprobrium from the Laborsphere.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research joins the party by also showing Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, although it gets there by showing a primary vote recovery for Labor (up three to 38 per cent) at the expense of the Greens (down three to 11 per cent), with the Coalition down one to 40 per cent. Again, there’s a sting in the tail for Kevin Rudd – 40 per cent say Labor would have a better chance of winning if they changed leaders, against only 37 per cent who say he is the best person to lead the party to the election. However, the results on this measure are substantially worse for Tony Abbott – 29 per cent and 47 per cent. Kevin Rudd remains preferred prime minister over Abbott by 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and also over Julia Gillard by 36 per cent to 33 per cent. There’s also a very interesting finding on troops in Afghanistan, with 61 per cent saying out troops should withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,109 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. 1) this makes Neilson look even more Rogue-ish. Can we really accept 52 for the ALP when nelson has them at 47? Surely 50-50 seems more reasonable

    2) even if its accurate, Kevin Rudd’s 36 approval against a 2PP of 52 won’t kill the argument for a change of leader.

    Thanks to Ghost and Bent P, I can go to bed early

  3. Actually, as Peter Brent says, with both major parties polling such low primary votes the TPP figure isn’t quite as reliable as it usually is. I’d guess the real situation is currently still about 50-50.

  8. Interesting looking at those satisfaction figures. Rudd’s down in the mid-30s, but Abbott’s followed him down there too. The PPm is getting closer too. But what’s interesting is that opinions are solid wrt Rudd (only 9% uncommitted) but not so much with Abbott (13%). Those figures have been that way since at least March. Same thing with PPM – 17% uncommitted.

    It fits the general idea that people have gone off Rudd, but are unwilling to go to Abbott. I doubt it will happen, but it would be very interesting if Turnbull challenged Abbott. There’s a fair argument there that Abbott’s holding his party back, and they desperately need someone to reach out for those undecideds who are available.

    I’m guessing News Ltd are too stupid to figure that out, though. They’ll still attack Rudd relentlessly, in complete ignorance of what needs to be done to help their party of choice.

    Greens’ll be happy. Their numbers have solidified.

  10. Astro

    The council already acknowledged the force was with you

    we jedi are cursed to travel the path less travelled

    sleep well young padawan

    The war is still to be won

    🙂

  11. [Astro

    Well Done

    I hope the natural bond is strengthened not weakened by the attacks of the MSM and its drones]

    I will second that – enough of the fighting. We need to pull together to keep the 21st century going. I had enough of the 1950s and don’t want to go back to it with Abbott.

  12. I gotta say I’m freaking ecstatic with this result. After all of News Ltd’s crap this is just proof of how little influence Murdoch’s minions have over the general population. I thought the same thing after the 2007 NSW State election when the Daily Terror threw everything including the kitchen sink at Labor and they still won. So to BoltA, Shamahan, Frankfurter, Pies, McCrap and the rest of the dishonest thugs – SUCK IT!

  14. i did say earlier today that it will take a month 4 labor to get 52-48. So the empire strikes early. It will up and up from now on

  16. But Glen polling isn’t the real thing. People vent when responding to polls because they know it isn’t the real thing.

    When the election comes, many of the people who say they are voting Green in the lower house will thin twice because it will render them (psychologically) powerless. It is human nature.

    In this country, it is basically a choice between two. And people will choose. The Greens vote can never be that high because of the narrow and ideological nature of their platform.

    People cite the 3rd party in British politics as an example but: a) it’s a different system and b) it ended up 1st and 3rd pushed out a close 2nd place.

    Here, a coalition of 2nd and 3rd can push out 1st by their combined efforts, but preferential voting makes it possible for 1st to win in its own right and 2nd can win with said preferences (which amounts to unofficial coalitions)

  18. Bh

    i think when all is said and done the “real” greens like astro are where the hopes of both labor/green rest

    The trollertariat cant decieve us true believers in the social contract

    🙂

  20. I just wanna say I predicted this result (to myself, that is). After Frank posted Mumble’s tweet I visited Newspoll.com.au and had a look at the poll results for the last time the Nationals were at 4 points (33.3% improvement – from 3 to 4%) and the result was 52 / 48 to Labor.

  26. It is possible that the whole wishful leadership beat-up was to help rob the new PPL of any positive news time and space. New landmark laws usually get more positive media attention than the new PPL.

    There must be a few reality checks going on amongst the Lib hard heads.What to do now? If they can’t attract voters now with most of the media cheer leading for them and the poor miners multimillion dollar(we’ll going all be rooned) campaign going flat out on their behalf. It must be time for another Grech type e-mail!

  29. [That preferred PM figure is a worry. Could it be a consequence of Abbott’s recent low profile?]

    He can run but he can’t hide. 👿

    [if the trend keeps going it will be 60/40 by october]

    Roll on October!

  30. The biggest losers out of this poll are the OO esp Shamaham and the tin foil hat brigade who assured us the fix was in.

  33. [i think when all is said and done the “real” greens like astro are where the hopes of both labor/green rest]

    Gusface – I’ve always read Astro’s posts because his comments are worthwhile considering. Our ‘real’ greenie kid is hopping mad and extremely disappointed that Brown is even making noises about the Libs after all the years of fighting them at every turn.

    Reason will prevail with many of them come election day. It’s the Labor left who anger me now, plus those like Graham Richardson from the old shonky right.

    I’m off to bed rejoicing and I’m looking forward to BB’s report on Shamaham tomorrow. Night all.

  38. Mr Squiggle the bias exists, just not at Newspoll. The bias is at The Australian and News Limited where they do everything they can to knobble the poll. Of course, the Australian people are smarter than the News Ltd hacks (even when they were voter for Howard) and hence we get the result we have tonight.

  40. FrankL of Templestowe,

    [My sympathies to The Australian & Shanahan.

    Went to all the trouble of arranging a mock trial & setting up a perfectly good lynching only to discover that no one cared.

    Why are people so unkind?]

    Welcome, Frank.

    I know one person who will not feel very well today and that is one A. Bolt! On Insiders he was gleefully dancing on Kevin Rudd’s and Labor’s grave. You couldn’t knock the smile off his face with a sledgehammer.

    Well, Newspoll tonight has delivered that sledgehammer and not only Bolter has been struck a mighty blow, but most of the Rudd hating Canberra press gallery will today be nursing very sore heads and damaged pride. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of vipers!

  42. Maybe, just maybe, the press might calm down a little too. Afterall, they cannot be seen to be backing a dead horse for too long — the need to be on the winning side is too great.

    I suspect those in mahogany row and scratching their heads and wondering whether they might need to change tack.

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