Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  3. shows on 1728

    [religious dogma based on a rejection of rationality has long been in conflict with rational scientific inquiry]

    I was struck looking at the tomb of Sixtus IV (early renaissance pope) that it was surrounded by little carvings of various sciences, very contemporary. The relationship of science and this case the papacy is quite complex. (Beautiful sculpture BTW)

  4. The fasces were quite common symbols used Europe from Roman times until they sort of went out of vogue around about the end of WW2 for reasons that escape me just now.

    Ironically, before WW2, they were used mainly to represent democratic rather than dictatorial tendencies. But even so, their use as a symbol was ambiguous. They were, for example, used both by the french revolutionaries during that revolution and by Napoleon subsequently. His eagle standards had a set of fasces tied to the main pole.

  7. 1739

    ShowsOn I mean that in all seriousness. If someone has given you a different impression as a purported Christian, I sincerely apologise. Because that’s what it’s about.

    The Bible certainly emphasises it as such. See Ephesians 4:4, for instance.

  9. [Has Pyne had a former life in the arts? Otherwise why is he there?]

    Has he had a life outside of politics? He seems to be the embodiment of the party hack.

  10. Daniel B

    You seem to have read it, so you may be able to tell me something about the Bible that has interested me for quite some time. Why is it totally and utterly devoid of irony, satire or humour of any kind? Surely one of the many, many authors over the centuries could have slipped in a pun or a joke or a wry comment somewhere?

  11. How Surprisement from one of Limited News’s big wigs;

    Harto Fake NewsGod BigHarto

    Hold the front page – ARTISTS WHINGE ABOUT FUNDING. 3 minutes ago via web Retweeted by thewetmale and 2 others

  12. Cuppa: according to his Q&A bio he’s gone from Young Libs to student politics to being an MP. And it doesn’t seem he’s had a very successful political career for all the years he’s been there. He’s been Minister for AGeing, but then so has Bronnie so that isn’t saying much.

  13. ShowsOn

    “Well, you could in passing in science class point out that Galileo was imprisoned and tortured for espousing the heliocentric view of the universe that challenged religious dogma. So sure, you could point out that religious dogma based on a rejection of rationality has long been in conflict with rational scientific inquiry.”

    For the record, Galileo was a Christian, and Luther and Calvin, two of the founders of Protestantism both prefered his views to those of Copernicus.

    It wasn’t a simple case of religion versus science as you make it out to be. It was more a case of the Catholic church getting caught up in something they shouldn’t have been.

  15. Boerwar
    There are two big fasces sculptures in the US House of Representatives – as would be expected in the self image of the successor of the Roman Republic

  16. [I was struck looking at the tomb of Sixtus IV (early renaissance pope) that it was surrounded by little carvings of various sciences, very contemporary.]
    Of course the Catholic church has long been fascinated with astronomy, because that’s where they think heaven is located. That doesn’t mean they didn’t persecute people who happened to challenge their baseless dogma.

    Of course the catholic church also completely ignores modern neuroscience, neurology, evolutionary theory, evolutionary psychology, sociobiology, and cognitive science, by continuing to assert the 19th century notion that living things are alive because they have souls. There is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this claim, but it remains one of the central tenants of the Catholic Church.
    [The relationship of science and this case the papacy is quite complex. ]
    It isn’t that complex, the Catholic Church ignores contemporary science in order to hold onto their beliefs that have been proven wrong at least decades ago, in some cases centuries ago.

  17. BK 1746

    “Daniel B

    I’d say that you had been got at very early in your childhood.”

    Actually, no. And many of my church friends were converted in late teens/early adulthood.

  18. DB @ 1759

    They RC Church got caught in a double-bind infallibility trap that took them several centuries to escape. In the interim they did some very nasty things to G. Ironically, they still claim G. as one of their’s.

  19. Confessions, and they’re always snivelling that Labor people lack ‘real life experience’. Give me a union official, trained in negotiating agreements between the conflicting sides of employee and employer – over a smarmy lawyer or Liberal hack like Howard, Pyne and Abbott any day.

  21. Newspoll: PM avoids ‘whacking’

    10:15PM Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor KEVIN Rudd has not got the “whacking” he predicted in the latest Newspoll, with virtually no change in the primary and two-party preferred support for the Government.

  26. Maybe Christopher Pyne is there because he looks like a ventriloquist’s dummy. He certainly acts like one, mouthing whatever his masters in the Liberal Party tell him to say, no matter how preposterous.

  27. Vera, Peter is all class and the audience knows it. Pyne said he is the only non artist on the panel. Well, how true how true.

  32. The Chinese lady (choreographer) sitting next to Chrissie looks so poised (bet she was / is a dancer). Makes the men she’s sitting next to look very pedestrian.

  36. A slump in support for the Greens detracted from Labor’s second preferences, leaving the Coalition and Government where they were at the 2007 election.

    Probably went to the Liberals 🙂

  40. [ShowsOn I mean that in all seriousness. If someone has given you a different impression as a purported Christian, I sincerely apologise. Because that’s what it’s about.]
    Sorry, it is just obvious to me that some Christians, like some Muslims, have extremist views that they on occasion impress on others using violence. It doesn’t MATTER what true Christians are meant to do according to a book that seems to have endless interpretations. The fact is that some Christians use violence to impress their views on others, which to me, makes them just as bad as Muslims that do the same.

    I was reading about one christian terrorist just a few weeks ago:
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/man-pleads-he-killed-us-abortion-doctor-20100129-n27b.html

  42. [He is the manager of the Opposition’s business in the House. Which is quite senior.]

    Indeed. How could I forget the Pyne Whine interjecting every 2 minutes?!

  43. I think this Newspoll result is now the line in the sand. IMO the Opposition won’t poll better than this. Labor will either hold or surge ahead – I back the surge.

  44. That Shana says:
    [KEVIN Rudd has not got the “whacking” he predicted in the latest Newspoll, with virtually no change in the primary and two-party preferred support for the Government. ]

    makes me wonder nothing much good must have happened to Abbott’s PPM…

  47. People seem to have forgotten very quickly that in 2001 after the Shane Stone ‘mean and tricky’ memo, John Howard actually became a more “masterful” politician. This week could very well prove to be Kevin Rudd’s “mean and tricky” moment.

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