Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  6. [Maybe so, but that won’t alter the point I made.]
    It demonstrates that no religion adherents are a very important community in themselves.

  7. Zoomster,

    But does he have a hot crumpet burning his cheeks with shame?

    Possibly he does. Tony might have decided some fleshly mortification was in order.

  9. [It demonstrates that no religion adherents are a very important community in themselves.]

    I don’t dispute that, but atheists tend not to have festivals or commemorations that politicians are asked to acknowledge, as do Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus, Jews, etc. As an atheist, I don’t feel that politicians are infringing on my rights when they attend such events or acknowledge the religious beliefs of the various communities.

  10. No 1609

    I think the Australian Government should take to task the misguided and backward treatment of women by the Muslim community, like the French Government.

  13. [I think the Australian Government should take to task the misguided and backward treatment of women by the Muslim community, like the French Government.]
    Only if it takes to task the misguided and backward treatment of women by various fundamentalist Christian sects, e.g. various Pentecostal cults.

    Oh, and it should investigate the common practice of forced abortions in Scientology.

  17. [I’m thinking of attending for the first time this year.]
    It’s sold out.

    But it would be interesting to see them convert you from agnosticism. 😀

  27. They’ve given up. That last question from Abbott was just generalities, an invitation to Garrett to re-state his case again, with plenty of time left over to go the Opposition as well. Which Garrett hasn’t taken up, to his credit.

    Censure motion now. So nothing else to serve up in the way of accusations.

  33. Abbott just sounds like he is going through the motions. He is getting the censure motion out of the way on Monday so he can talk about different things for the rest of the week.

  43. Abbott is getting stuck into Rudd for calling Garrett a first class minister. How can Abbott make this point effectively having selected and supported Barnaby Joyce as a shadow minister?

  45. Tactically, has the Opposition peaked the issue two soon by proposing a Censure Motion? It will fail on the numbers. Where to after this?

  50. [Tactically, has the Opposition peaked the issue two soon by proposing a Censure Motion? It will fail on the numbers. Where to after this?]

    They know it is now a dead duck issue – Garrett is going nowhere.

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