Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. The serious side to Abbott’s school boy pontificating on sex and other ramblings about the ten commandments is that he is doing a disservice to hardworking and normal Liberal MPs (yes, they do exist). The claptrap he is spouting in place of solid, costed policies makes adults in the real world question his judgement and by default that of the Liberal party members, many of whom must be appalled by this idiocy.

  2. [To be fair on TTH, I’ve seen similar insinuations about Newspoll… which are equally as ludicrous.]

    Don’t you find it a little suspicious Morgan Polling was polling laughable numbers for YEARS, and just DAYS before the 2007 election, they start polling realistic numbers?

    Now thats a conspiracy.

  3. Tom Hawkins – #48

    [ I’ve read your posts. That’s evidence enough for me. ]

    Well you had better get used to it then.

    Whilst I had previously stated I wouldn’t be coming here after the end of this week, except for special guest appearances, I have had such an enjoyable time here, I am now considering extending my stay indefinitely.

  4. Truthy

    You are insinuating that Gary Morgan massages his research findings. That is a serious claim with nothing but your imagination to back it up.

  5. “Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament.”

    Hmmm… yeah, so the great unwashed of Campbelltown are trekking over to Mosman, to darken Farmer’s doorstop and beg him to represent them?

    FFS, what a load of tripe.

  6. [sorting the Pakistanies from the Afghans]

    TTH might ask : what’s so difficult about sorting them out? There are just three piles:

    1. yellow
    2. brown
    3. black

    can’t get much simpler than that. The best thing is he then gets to treat them all the same. I don’t know why he doesn’t just stick to the one pile.

  8. entre nous

    I think there would be quite a few Lib voters holding their breath waiting for the Abbott train wreck, wishing they still had Malcolm in charge.

  10. [Now thats a conspiracy.]

    Yes, what you posted is a conspiracy ;).

    To answer your substantive point, almost all polling organisations were polling huge numbers for the ALP throughout 2007 and a marked ‘narrowing’ during at least the final week of the campaign, then a ‘widening’ (if you want to call it that) or a settling towards the end of the week.

    In fact, if you want to nit-pick any particular polling organisation you might point fingers at Nielson.

    I wasn’t being serious in my original comment about it being closest for the last poll… I suspect a degree of luck might have been at play there.

  11. [Niger president ousted in military coup. Teabaggers rejoice after misreading headline.]

    Very funny.

    [Whilst I had previously stated I wouldn’t be coming here after the end of this week, except for special guest appearances, I have had such an enjoyable time here, I am now considering extending my stay indefinitely.]

    It happens to the best of us. I should know.

  14. Vera

    In retrospect, and in comparison to the ‘Abbott trial’, the period of the ‘Malcolm experiment’ must seem like days full of peace and calm.

  19. Off to dog park. Think I will bring up for discussion today, what seems to be the most important question discussed on here:-

    What do you consider the most important factor in determining your vote in the 2010 election:-
    a. Abbott’s inability to make a proper Windsor knot.
    b. Rudd’s choice of daggy suits.

    Interesting to see what the results are – but I bet the scene queens will dismiss them both as tragics.

  21. No 58

    Why would any self-respecting Liberal want Malcolm in charge? He did a terrible job, wasn’t cutting through and was determined to destroy the party in order to allow Rudd to self-aggrandise at Copenhagen. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

    All this “bring Malcolm back” from people who would never vote Liberal in the first place is all smoke and mirrors. Why? Comparing Abbott to Latham saves them from having to expend any effort on selling their dog of a climate change policy.

  23. [ast week at St Vinnies hosp with Tone poor Malcolm looked like he’d rather be anywhere else.]

    Saw that – made me think he won’t bother running again.

    GP – now the Libs have to sell their ‘communist’ policy as described by Garnaut

  25. GP

    Serious question.

    Do you think the Libs should back down and pass the Private Insurance Rebate stuff in the Senate – or are they willing to fight a DD on Health with the consequence of the original CPRS (without McFarlane amendments) being passed at a joint sitting?

  26. GP@71

    Then why was one Liberal member heard to moan after Abbott won the leadership ballot – ‘what have we done?’. That was one prescient comment. Agreed, Malcolm did a terrible job, didn’t cut through and tried to destroy the party but he was streaks ahead in ability to Abbott and if that is damning with faint praise then so be it.

  27. [or are they willing to fight a DD on Health with the consequence of the original CPRS (without McFarlane amendments) being passed at a joint sitting?]

    The CPRIS with McFarlane amendments could be presented at a joint sitting even under your scenario.

  28. [next on 7 news the federal politition opening up about his sex life]

    Tony is all class. Advises his daughters discretely about the value of viginity and announces just as discretely to his wife that he is an adulterer having only one cardinal sin to go.

  29. No 74

    I have always preferred direct action policies when it comes to climate change. From solar power to nuclear, I think the massive investment power of the Commonwealth is the only way to kickstart the transition.

    It seems quite counterintuitive for someone in my position to be advocating direct action, but frankly, if you’re serious about doing something about climate change – (a) you need to act quickly; (b) you need A LOT of money and (c) it’s not a case of “picking winners” when we already know Nuclear and renewables are winners.

  31. Turnbull’s biggest problem as the fake email and his call for Rudd to resign. Remove that from his CV and given time he might have started to cut through. Yes, I know he oozes arrogance but Abbott oozes stupidity.

  32. [The CPRIS with McFarlane amendments could be presented at a joint sitting even under your scenario.]

    Yes but why? Labor compromised to try to get it passed. They do not have to after a DD.

  33. [I think the massive investment power of the Commonwealth is the only way to kickstart the transition.]

    GP, Ben Chifley couldn’t have put it better, you old socialist you.

  34. No 75

    Look after all our party has gone through, I’m no longer afraid of fighting an election on health or the ETS. Bring it on.

    The Rudd Government doesn’t have the best record on health and the environment, particularly in respect of the latter. It’s dithered on health reform and it has killed people trying to insulate homes.

  35. Wouldn’t it be interesting if Abbott was an adulterer and knows that Labor (or MT) have are preparing to leak it to the press. Just a thought. He is a very untrustworthy character so nothing would surprise me.

  36. i dont have avery good sence of humour is bushfire bill joking

    sorry my husbands alwasy telling me i cannot tell when people are serious or not

  39. [I have always preferred direct action policies when it comes to climate change. From solar power to nuclear, I think the massive investment power of the Commonwealth is the only way to kickstart the transition.]

    But Nuclear isn’t part of the direct action policy is it? Thanks for your response though. I agree with some of what you say.

    [Yes but why? Labor compromised to try to get it passed. They do not have to after a DD.]

    But the Government has already announced the Wong/Macfarlane bill is now Government policy. It’s possible they could go back on this but I doubt it.

  41. No 87

    Yes, crass stupidity of the highest order when a Minister decides 12 months after the fact to implement strict policies to ensure proper safety standards.

  43. [Look after all our party has gone through, I’m no longer afraid of fighting an election on health or the ETS. Bring it on. ]

    What about if they held it concurrently with a referendum to take over hospital funding/management?

  44. No 88

    Lindsay Tanner on Sky News, 9th February – “due to the nature of the policy, there was little time to dot i’s and cross t’s” (or words to that effect).

  47. @91

    Too right. Here’s one strict policy the Minister should have implemented re installing insulation:

    “Please avoid contact between live wires and metal surfaces (e.g., tools, aluminium ladders, foil insulation. Such contact can result in electrocution. This is bad. Refer to Lesson One of your TAFE electrician course. ”

    Here’s another:

    “When installing pink batts, if batts reek of formaldehyde and make you feel dizzy and/or nauseous, you probably bought the wrong ones. This is probably because you are a cheap bastard, and chose the cheap foreign import. If nausea and dizziness continue, stop installing them. No, really.”

  48. GP as usual you Libs cannot even lie properly.

    [Tony Abbott (Warringah, Liberal Party, Leader of the Opposition) My question is to the Prime Minister. Does the Prime Minister agree with his finance minister that the Home Insulation Program, which has contributed to the deaths of four Australians, was a program where the government could not be expected to dot the i’s and cross the t’s?

    Anthony Albanese (Grayndler, Australian Labor Party, Leader of the House) Mr Speaker, on a point of order: it is not in order for the Leader of the Opposition to verbal the finance minister in a question. Therefore the premise of the question is incorrect and therefore the question is out of order.

    Harry Jenkins (Speaker) The Leader of the House will resume his seat. The chair is not in a position to vouch for the accuracy of quotes contained within questions. On all occasions, these matters are left in the hands of the person that is asking the question, and the remedial action open to any aggrieved party is well known by members of the House.

    Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne, Australian Labor Party, Minister for Finance and Deregulation) Mr Speaker, I wish to make a personal explanation.

    Harry Jenkins (Speaker) Does the honourable member claim to have been misrepresented?

    Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne, Australian Labor Party, Minister for Finance and Deregulation) I do. And it has just been repeated in the most recent statement.

    Harry Jenkins (Speaker) Please proceed.

    Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne, Australian Labor Party, Minister for Finance and Deregulation) In question time today, the Leader of the Opposition stated that I had said yesterday that the government could not be expected to dot its i’s and cross its t’s with respect to the administration of the insulation program. As those who are listening might have noted in what was just read out by the member for North Sydney, I was asked a specific question about delaying decisions with regard to the government stimulus matters, and the question related to: why didn’t the government deal with issues such as the risk association with metal fasteners at the time it made these decisions? My answer was: these are matters for implementation, rightly to be dealt with by the minister and the department, and this was not a reason for delaying those decisions. So the interpretation that is being placed on my statement by the member for North Sydney and the Leader of the Opposition is totally false.

    House of Representatives Hansard transcript for 11 February 2010]

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