Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA

Seven weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser has published a poll of state voting intention, conducted on Wednesday to make hay out of the paper’s win on the blog comments issue. It finds Labor still leading at 52-48, compared with 56.8-43.2 at the 2006 election and 57-43 at the previous Advertiser poll in December. After distribution of the undecided and otherwise non-responsive, the primary vote figures are 38 per cent Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 9 per cent Greens. Consistent with all other polling, Isobel Redmond has remarkably good personal ratings, and was deemed by 51 per cent of respondents to be more trustworthy than Mike Rann. The sample as usual is on the low side: 538 respondents, for a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

433 comments on “Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA”

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  1. SNIP: Abusive rant deleted – The Management.

    ___________________________________

    ‘Advertiser Polls’- now THERE’S a concept!! That is hardly likely to change my opinion.

    I get most of my local news from The Independent. They must have a Liberal bias too???

    ‘Ringing endorsement’ was meant within the concept in which I used it……(sigh), (sigh) (oh gawd).

  2. 291, 292. Toorak Toff.

    It’s a real toss up between the bikers and the gang of 49 isn’t it? Spoiled for choice!

    Though the G49 must be feeling a bit miffed that the spotlight has gone off them. Maybe it’s because they are only really a gang of 42, or 36, or…

    Risk is everywhere is what I’m saying. My elderly neighbour will not use an ATM without myself or his son with him, because he was threatened with a knife and had to hand his pension over.

  4. [There is a strong possibility the Nats will win two seats]

    That’s what the Nats always say and it never happens. And considering the expected drop in the Maywald vote, if they couldn’t gain seats in 2006, I doubt they’ll do it now. To rural conservatives, the Nats appear in bed with Labor.

    [Mount Gambier]

    Who are you kidding? Lib HQ ensured Perryman was the Lib candidate to make sure he didn’t run as an independent, which he probably would have been successful at. There is no popular independent running thus far. And yet you seem to think there’s a strong chance it will be won by an independent?

    Can I please have some of what you’re smoking?? 😀

  5. Poor bob, up to his chin in his own bullshit usually. Can’t stand it when someone like Elan jumps in too and makes waves.

  8. [THE State Government has compiled a database of people who oppose demolition of the Royal Adelaide Hospital, and is sending material aiming to educate them on why building a new $1.7 billion hospital is good policy.

    People being contacted include Health Department employees as well as ordinary citizens opposed to the plan who have signed petitions – giving their names and addresses – which were presented to State Parliament.

    Health Minister John Hill’s office has taken these names and addresses, and is sending the signatories letters outlining Labor’s plan for a new hospital – opposed by the Opposition and groups including the newly-formed Save the RAH Party.

    The use of such information for a mail-out has been labelled a “Big Brother” invasion of privacy by civil liberties campaigners and the Save the RAH group, who say it is an abuse of the parliamentary process.

    But Mr Hill insists it is just common courtesy to respond to petitioners.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-keeps-database-of-royal-adelaide-hospital-opponents/story-e6frea83-1225830062623

    I want to hear what Dio has to say on this one 😀

  9. bob

    Actually I don’t have a problem with Hill writing to the people who signed the petition.

    If you worked in SA Health and signed it with your real name, you are dumb enough to deserve the retribution you will undoubtedly receive.

    But people in the hospital and the general public are not going to be affected.

  10. Civil liberties advocate Allan Perry, an Adelaide Uni law lecturer, said he had no problem with the Government responding directly to people who sign petitions.

    “The petition is addressed to the Minister and it seems reasonable that if he is sent a petition, that he should respond by giving an explanation of his plans,” Mr Perry said.

    “So long as it is not an intimidating or harassing letter it is OK. It suggests the Government is taking the views of people seriously.”

  11. I agree TT. BUT was it just listening to the people? Should we all be frightfully pleased?

    I think not.

    As someone put it on AN, it is to say the least, unusual to respond to petitioners in this manner, and given that Msr Hill must be so busy with the election an’ all…

    No. The AG’s expressed his concern (in his inimitable manner!) about the anonymous public sayin’ naughty things about him and the ‘ment. I would suggest that there is an ulterior motive for this.

    Haydon Manning has a different view earlier this week when this matter came to light,- he referred to it as ‘intimidatory’.

    Pick your pundit!!

    (And William Bowe, enjoy your Sunday, but I’m still waiting. Sauce for goose, and all that…..)

  12. Elan, your complaints hardly warrant a response. What I asked earlier was that a repetitive exchange between you and Bob come to an end, which it did. He’s done nothing seriously wrong since, whereas you continue to be disruptive and abusive.

  15. ‘Perhaps we have discovered where you’re from… keep your illegal activities away from me!’

    This came out of nowhere! I had simply posted!

    This jackass accuses me of illegal activities and gets away with it! Further, he knows it, hence the no comment, and smiley!

    Thanks for confirming that your so-called fairness was levelled at me. And thanks for confirming the allegation of a clique.

    There are many writers on Crikey, and strong opinions are expressed,-many against them, yet not one of them has reacted in the way you have! Not one.

    What you have just done is give this favoured little man a green light, and put me on a red one!

    Well you will not! So you can demonstate your extraordinary favouritism, and ban me from here, so that you do not offend this little coward!

    I find this quite unbelievable for a site like Crikey! What IS going on?

  16. Elan, when I said

    [‘Perhaps we have discovered where you’re from… keep your illegal activities away from me!’]

    It was tongue in cheek because of the unusual way you were defending the bikies.

    Sorry if you took it seriously.

  17. ‘………whereas you continue to be disruptive and abusive.’

    I HAD to check. I’ve just done so.

    What ARE you talking about???

    I REACT to someone referring to my ‘illegal activities’, -is THAT it?

    Unbelievable.

    (If I disappear from this thread William Bowe has banned me! From all;-it will be Crikey).

    I think I’ve wandered into the twilight zone. This is hard to believe.

  18. You pathetic little sod! I’m not interested in your gutless and weak excuses.

    Hurry up and pick up your red telephone to the writer….

  20. Elan, perhaps it’s because you post as if you’ve just consumed 10 Red Bulls.

    Try typing normally like the rest of us, rather than acting like you’re 30 seconds away from going in to cardiac arrest.

  22. ‘Perhaps we have discovered where you’re from… keep your illegal activities away from me!’

    ‘It was tongue in cheek because of the unusual way you were defending the bikies.’

    I shall be forwarding this to Craig Caldicott.

    This is bizarre.

  26. Back on topic – isn’t it interesting that recent by-elections see swings of various sizes against the incumbent state Labor government, yet the first one in SA for 15 years, Frome, actually saw a swing TO the incumbent government, extremely rare.

    SA Labor must be doing something right.

    🙂

  27. William – well done for keeping an eye on things here. For some reason passions seem to be running high among some people over here – mostly those who are desperate to give Rann and Co a kick in a place that hurts.
    And its certainly not helped by AG Atkinson who is busy suing people for defamation over relatively tame remarks. Atkinson really is good at “throw a cracker now” when things seem to be going smoothly.
    Its really confusing here about how to deal with Labor and their business mates and arrogance versus Libs with lack of spine on policies and general conservative incompetence.

  28. arrrrhhh william that was getting exciting, let Elan come back, or give him 24 hour red card .

    you want Elan back dont you Bob ?

  30. [IN a stunning turnaround, Channel Seven last night apologised for any suggestion that Mike Rann’s relationship with Michelle Chantelois had affected his performance as Premier. ]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/bombshell-as-seven-apologises-to-rann-over-chantelois-saga/story-e6frea83-1225830249532

    With this and the RAH Lib black hole, let’s hope Labor grows some kahunas and stops procrastinating with it’s announcements. This is about the best momentum they’re going to get I reckon.

  31. It doesn’t really matter what Channel 7 says at this point as people will have their own opinion as to whether the story is impacting or not. It does however suggest that the somewhat litigous government is managing to make its mark. The article in the Sunday Mail about Michael Atkinson gaining access to Charles Sturt council emails will be another twist to the story of Michael Atkinson persecuting a resident of that city. The RAH black hole that Labor has found is unlikely to change people’s minds because they all know that if the gold taps Labor is likely to have costed in are left out of it the project will be cheaper.

  33. The ABC said that Channel Seven last night announced a retraction of the story on air. Did anyone hear what they said?

    [The state government says there is a $1 billion black hole in the opposition’s proposal to rebuild the Royal Adelaide Hospital on its current site.]

    This is not news to me. Regardless of what is the best location for a hospital, it is almost never cheaper to refurbish existing buildings of this type than to build a new one. Get some plumbing or electrical work done in renovations and you’ll understand why. Building services costs for hospitals are astronomical. Plus the cost of temporary relocation during any reconstruction would be substantial too.

  34. Found the text of Seven’s apology on that link, thanks Bob.
    [Seven Network acknowledges the Premier of South Australia’s statement in response to its Sunday Night program last year, which featured an interview with Michelle Chantelois and, in particular, his denial that he engaged in sexual intercourse with Ms Chantelois.

    Seven Network retracts any implication in the story that the Premier exploited his friendship with Ms Chantelois and acknowledges that he had no involvement in her employment or the cessation of her employment with a South Australian public school.

    Seven also acknowledges that neither the Premier’s friendship with Ms Chantelois nor the subject matter of the story have any bearing on the Premier’s role of performance as Premier.

    Seven regrets any embarrassment caused to the Premier or his family by the broadcast of the story.

    As the Premier has instituted legal proceedings over the program, Seven has agreed to pay his reasonable costs in settlement. No damages were sought.]

  35. [With the state election a month off, public focus is now on the political parties and their leaders.The parties provide little alternative for voters. Regardless of their social progressivism or conservatism they seem equally wedded to unfortunate and discredited economic rationalism.]

    http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/3036

    A true Dunstan fan from the sounds of it 🙂

  38. bob,

    Nice to see you finally catching up with the programme. On the one hand you’re slow, on the other you’re not very bright. Most intelligent observers worked that out months ago.

  39. bob

    She’s one angry woman. She’s not going to go away.

    I wonder if her husband can subpoena the footage under disclosure for his court case?

  40. 339 – Diog – what relevance is evidence related to Rann & MC to hubbies assault charge. Not admissable.
    MC is certainly like a moth after the limelight. Only interested in hubbie knowing the truth? So she looks like she wants everyone else to know and suffer. Only made it public because of the way other people behaved ie Rann saying he didn’t know hubbie. But supposedly wants to prove that she had sex with Rann. Ridiculous. Wants Channel 7 to do her work – I think thats where we started.

  41. [She’s one angry woman. She’s not going to go away.]

    Exactly. If the oxygen continues to be sucked out of the government’s re-election campaign, I have grave concerns for it’s future.

  42. Wakefield

    I’m not sure if his defense it better if they can prove that Phillips has good grounds for suspecting Rann was with his wife.

  43. Diogs,

    If you think it will mitigate against him attacking a person unprovoked and unprepared, you’re rooting for the wrong side.

    Your logic says it’s OK to assault people as long as you think you have a good reason.

    It’s pathetic logic.

  44. GG, we’re here making debating points, and all you’re doing is insulting everyone. This is clearly evident to anyone reading. Go back to the main thread if it’s all you’ve got up your sleeve.

  45. bob,

    Cry me a river.

    If you think everyone is going to ignore your past behaviour, you are a bigger dill than I imagined.

    Robust debate doesn’t stop just because you can’t handle the consequences.

  46. GG

    Phillips lawyer has already said he will try the argument I mentioned. That was the reason I mentioned it.

    Personally, I think it’s pretty tenuous but that’s what he’s doing.

  47. Diogs,

    Phillip’s lawyer can try on what ever he likes. His client is facing very serious charges and I’m sure a defence of blaming the victim will be treated with the contempt it deserves.

  48. [If you think everyone is going to ignore your past behaviour]

    I never said that GG. But here we all are debating, and all you can do is come along and insult us.

    You seem to hate the very thing you do. Do you hate yourself when you look in the mirror? I bet you do.

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