Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA

Seven weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser has published a poll of state voting intention, conducted on Wednesday to make hay out of the paper’s win on the blog comments issue. It finds Labor still leading at 52-48, compared with 56.8-43.2 at the 2006 election and 57-43 at the previous Advertiser poll in December. After distribution of the undecided and otherwise non-responsive, the primary vote figures are 38 per cent Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 9 per cent Greens. Consistent with all other polling, Isobel Redmond has remarkably good personal ratings, and was deemed by 51 per cent of respondents to be more trustworthy than Mike Rann. The sample as usual is on the low side: 538 respondents, for a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

433 thoughts on “Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA”

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 4 5 6 9
  1. In the textbooks the statement is often made “ Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them

    If this statement is correct, the question is: Has the Rann government performed so badly, or the electorate so tired of them (a government smelling like dirty socks) – that people are prepared to jump ships to the Liberals (irrespective of the polcy position or strength/weaknesses of the Liberals?

    My only detailed look at the SA political situation was a look at Michael Atkinson ( what I was told on here, the internet censorship affair, and reading his behaviour in parliament via Hansard). Must say I was not impressed by what I saw.

    So are Labor so bad people would be prepared to vote against them? The polls and the betting markets indicate NO- they are not ready to throw the Rann government out just yet.

  2. burkan, you’re as paranoid as a Liberal MP, but i’m not exactly about to go accusing you of being one.

    Stop the accusations, they’re wrong, incorrect, and a waste of space. If a lack of valid debating points that you feel you could win are so absent, and all you can do is resort to the crap you’re posting, then be it on your head and your conscience that you, and the Liberals, will not get anywhere.

    🙂

  3. Why is Rann trying to reduce the target time to admit an emergency patient when he can’t meet the old target because he’s closed so many beds?

    Is it perhaps a pre-emptive strike because he knows that the emergency departments are about to release the appalling waiting time figures and ask why nothing has been done about them?

    And just what has happened to Aspen Medical staffing the ED in Modbury and the QEH? Has there been yet another embarrassing back-flip?

  4. ASHLEY HALL: The Opposition’s finance spokesman is again in strife over his musings on the economy.

    Barnaby Joyce claimed today that Australia is in imminent danger of defaulting on its government debt.

    Economists have joined the Government in branding Mr Joyce’s comments irresponsible, especially at a time when financial markets are jittery and overseas investors might take his comments seriously.

    The credit ratings agencies who monitor sovereign risk say his assessment is nonsense.

    BRENDAN FLYNN: Standard and Poor’s rates the debt of the Australian Government at AAA with a stable outlook. And the triple A is our highest rating. It indicates our opinion that the Government has an extremely strong ability to meet all of its debt obligation.

    STEPHEN LONG: So what is the likelihood of the Australian National Government defaulting on its debt?

    BRENDAN FLYNN: With the AAA rating that’s indicative of the extremely strong ability to meet financial obligations and therefore in our opinion very little chance of defaulting on debt.

    STEPHEN LONG: What about those free-spending state governments?

    BRENDAN FLYNN: We rate all of the Australian AAA or AA plus. And the AA plus is our second highest rating and that is our opinion of a very strong ability to meet debt obligation.

    So all the Australian states are very highly rated and again that means we think there’s very little chance of defaulting on debt.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2814770.htm

    What are the poor SA Libs to do when Labor has been in power for 8 years and has such a strong economic rating? Oh, that’s right, hope that Chantelois can win them power by default, not through any sort of government failure, or coherant sensible Lib policies; or, by sending trolls on to various net sites 😉

  5. STEPHEN LONG: Josh Williamson, an economist at Citigroup, rates Barnaby Joyce’s comments as irresponsible, wrong and very poorly timed.

    You just cannot trust the coalition with the economy.

  6. To those who queried the writs…

    South Australia will officially move into election mode on February 20, one month before the March 20 poll.

    Premier Mike Rann on Wednesday said he would visit the governor in 10 days, allowing for writs for the election to be issued.

    The electoral roll will then close on March 2, and the deadline for the nomination of candidates will be set for March 5.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/sa-to-move-into-official-election-mode-20100210-nqfq.html

  7. Well I have no clue on identities and I care less…………..unless there is a clear propaganda agenda.

    And bob1234 -as a ‘Green’ you are doing a rattling good job for Labor!

    When I first joined this topic I noticed that, and mentioned that I would be responding to you. So rather than condemnation of burkan, it might be an idea to see where he’s coming from.
    (Though you have me stumped on the avatar thing burkan kiddo!).

    Wakefield: sweetie! this is a ‘mockracy. He’s entitled to his view (within reason burkan….ho hum!). I’m fairly new here…..wanna try telling me not to pollute?
    (I’ll be round to your place in a heartbeat, and smash all your toys).

    ‘burkan, it’s a pity that the Libs are only in with a chance because of Labor, than, you know, actually developing policies and presenting as an alternative government…’ bob1234.

    Oh come on!!,……how about you start to talk about Greens policy?? You being a Green an’ all….

  8. Have you read all my posts in this thread? Clearly not, otherwise you would see that I am not a fan of Rann Labor, but the way they have been treated by the media is contemptuous, and the Libs are worse than Labor.

  9. Silly me bob1234??????

    Cut the crap!! I’ve tried to maintain a sense of humour, but not now.

    If you seriously believe that a sprinkling of negative comments will divert opinion from your obsequious promotion of the Labor Party, you are wrong!

    You are not Atkinson (as has been alluded to),-lawyer he may be;-academic, but not intelligent. No,-you write in a different way to Mikey the Snoop!

    I don’t care, you know. What I DO care about is that you are attempting to mislead.(The hypocrisy of referring to another poster as ‘biased’ is mind-boggling in its double standard!!).

    DO NOT for a nano-second attempt to convince me that you are doing ANYTHING other than barracking for the Labor Party. It is not even subtle.

    Over to you.

    (BTW: your IT environment lends itself beautifully to having time to make several posts. Nice work if you can get it!!).

  10. Yes bob1234-the ‘I’ve been on this site for years, people know my views’ thing is a familiar tactic.

    ‘You’re new here, but I’m part of the Crikey family’!!! Something put up to distinguish oneself as the ‘real thing’ !! (This one has been done to death!).

    Try that on someone else. I’m too cynical to wear it.

    I’ve been asking you to be honest, is all.

    ( ..no need or desire to justify yourself??? You could have fooled me!).

  11. Elan

    I’ll just point out that bob is frequently criticised for “shameless anti-Labor trolling” on the federal threads.

    Personally, I struggle to understand why he gives a sh!t whether Labor or Libs get in here (they are Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum from where I’m sitting), while he complains about Rudd not being progressive enough (which I agree with). But there you are; those are the facts.

  12. First the vulnerability. By his own admission, the Prime Minister is not communicating well, or well enough. His performance on Q and A Monday night was a classic case in point. “Nothing short of embarrassing,” according to Peter Van Onselen in today’s Australian.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/10/2815591.htm

    Don’t worry, PB Laborites say Rudd did well so it must be true, that’s that, end of the matter, case closed…

  13. Again, you could have fooled me!

    Thanks for our little chat. Frankly, it was inevitable. YOU need to read your posts, THEN try talking about bias!

    Well…; now you can get back to work, can’t you?

    Have a nice day.

  14. Diogenes, thanks for your comment. I was wondering when someone would come in to defend bob1234.

    You’ve done so in a non-confrontative way, thanks.

    I have to tell you though that I will not change my opinion one iota.

  15. bob,

    elan is clearly an argumentative troll just trying to start fights and abuse people. My best advice is to simply ignore such posters.

  16. Here we go. I knew it.

    For Gods sake GROW UP!

    When will you little boys stop referring to people as ‘trolls’ when they come in and put a dent in your carefully preserved images?’

    This is not even a Boy’s Club-it’s a Little Boy’s Club.

    Sheesh!! empty the spittoon why don’t you?

  17. Elan

    GG is being ironical. He doesn’t believe in emoticons. He has repeatedly argued that bob is a troll who just tries to pick fights.

    I also saw this just posted on the fed thread from a very Labor poster.

    There’s always time for your Liberal trollery, bob

  18. Elan

    Sorry, Bob are many things, but he is not a Labor Hack, In fact, he is highly annoying for some of the Labor Hackcolective in PB

    Bob has definitely not been assimulated in the Labor Hacks, in fact, he had used the term so often that he had been barred from using it

  19. Don Farrell is an old-fashioned DLP man (like his father before him). You my not agree with him but he does have integrity.

    Mick Atkinson is rather eccentric character, academically impressive, an excellent writer, but a powerful hater and something of a Quixotic tilter at windmills.

    Pat Conlon was regarded by the late Allan Scott as one minister who got things done.

    John Hill can be a bit flip but he does it on the bit.

  20. Right. All Weetied up. Where were we?

    Diogenes: I would love the link to that site…?

    GeeGee: Crikey does a lot of satire;-it does it well,-you do not. I don’t blame you for categorising your comment as satire. Sarcasm is so ‘girly’ don’t you think?

    dovif: I read over 70 posts before I began to form an opinion. It has not changed. We all know damn well that LabLibers are out in force online. This will get much worse in the ensuing few weeks. A very familiar tactic is to attack your own side. I do not KNOW that bob1234 is such, but I have suggested that he BEHAVES as if he is-inclusive of his negative comments.
    Thus I do not resile from my opinion.(I’d be interested to know though, who barred bob from using the term ‘Labor Hacks’??).
    But I thank you dovif. Another measured response, thanks.

    bob1234: ‘God, who would have thought people would be defending me by calling me anti-Labor.’
    It is so sweet though, isn’t it?

  21. elan,

    We’re laughing at you, not with you!

    However, you have created an identity crisis for bob from which he may never recover.

  22. We’re laughing at you, not with you!

    He doesn’t get it.

    However, you have created an identity crisis for bob from which he may never recover.

    I maintain my position – I am a progressive, disillusioned with modern Labor, who preferences the progressive third force first, be it Democrat or Green. I’ve never voted Liberal above Labor.

    SA Libs losing 9 of the last 12 elections since the end of the Playmander, who would vote for them? They were completely inept and utterly disfunctional during the Brown/Olsen/Kerin years and have been even more hopeless ever since. 40 years of family (faction) tensions. Their last half-decent government of Tonkin was 30 years ago. They completely and utterly shattered when the Liberal Movement split from the Liberal and Country League. Playford may have ruled for decades under the Playmander (of which he should have lost a number of elections), but the party he created was it’s future’s downfall. SA conservatives have paid the price for his service ever since.

  23. Ahh Steele Hall… now there’s a leader i’d prefer any day of the week over Rann, Redmond, Rudd and Abbott.

    Progressivism appears deader than ever.

  24. GeeGee: I-k-n-o-w.

    bobby,bobby,bobby…: You-are-revelling-in-people-defending-you. I said that’s sweet (that-you-feel-that-way), and it is-sweet.

    It’s male bonding!!!!!! Awwwwwwwww!

    (Gawd).

  25. The Rann Government is brash, arrogant, dictatorial, and past their use-by date.

    EVERYONE else is critiqued. But this odious rabble.

    They are PERFECTO!!

    What utter bollocks!

  26. The Rann Government is brash, arrogant, dictatorial, and past their use-by date.

    You’ve just described any government of the past 20 years. This is how we see politicians.

    Where is your state bank? Where is your Corcoran disaster?

    Where is your WorkChoices?

    Where is your failing economy?

    Where is the overarching issue?

    Partisans complain and complain from day 1 about those they hate, but that sort of stuff is best saved for election campaigns you haven’t yet won.

    I may be concerned about Chantelois, but look at the polling:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_state_election,_2010#Polling

    The Libs primary vote depending on how far back you wish to compare has either flatlined, or actually gone down. They don’t get Democrats preferences anymore. The Labor+Green primary and Labor 2PP, when you take away the one rogue 50/50 a year ago, coupled with four leaders in four years (I mean seriously, this is just the topping on a very very large cake) continues to show the Liberals for exactly what they are:

    Completely inept and utterly unelectable.

  27. They don’t get Democrats preferences anymore – to elaborate on that point in case of any confusion, the Liberal 2PP used to be bolstered by Liberals who voted Democrat, they don’t get that luxury anymore. Antony Green says the Libs will need, at a bare minimum, 40% or higher of the primary.

  28. ‘You’ve just described any government of the past 20 years. This is how we see politicians.’ b1234

    This will be hard to grasp bobby,-but you don’t know everything.

    You are talking about Governmental cock-ups. Absolutely right! They are politicians, what do you expect.

    Brash/arrogant/dictatorial is a hallmark of the Rannibles. They easily wrote the book on this.

    Olsen I recall was Emperor like. I was in a social situation where I was called on to meet him. He was between me and the door. I knew that building. I slipped out of a side door, so that I could avoid being ‘anointed’ by the grAtE man.

    No. The Gang of Four take the cake. Hung Parliament is all I can hope for.

  29. Thanks – I don’t think we’re yet to see someone here who’d actually want a majority Liberal government. Oh the thought *shudder*

    Only twice in the last 12 elections have the SA Libs won a majority. That’s rather sad and pitiful really.

  30. I hope you realise that by the Gang of Four, I meant Rann/Foley/Conlon/Atkinson?

    And as I said on another site: I would vote in a diseased carcass over Rann.

    I also said I would prefer the real conservatives over the pretenders.

    I shall have fun with the real conservatives. Dealing with the pretenders has been like nailing jelly.

    (Time for lunch).

    Domani.

  31. And as I said on another site: I would vote in a diseased carcass over Rann.

    I also said I would prefer the real conservatives over the pretenders.

    Yup, you’re ideologically against Rann based on partisanship. And even you can’t manage to wish for majority government…

  32. Elan

    I agree with many of your comments regarding “family”. There is no question in my mind that this is the most unfriendly blog site I have ever encountered, with only the “in clique” being entitled to express views (and there are variations in views amongst the in-clique). I came here in early December 2009. I encountered the same thing you are experiencing. I stayed around. One of the main things I did that for was to show the “in-clique” up for what they are – a bunch of hypocrites and rrrrsoles. It just reminds me of the words to the song by Whitney Houston… they can’t take away my dignity.

    I just plough on now, and try to avoid personal crap (although at one stage I allowed myself to get dragged down by all that stuff). Just concentrate on the stuff you wanna discuss, engage with the arguments people put up…and ignore the personal stuff. It takes some time to get accustomed to doing this.

    One thing is sure…the in-clique feel threatened by anyone from the “out-side”. It gives me the greatest pleasure to ensure this insecurity level is maintained. When feeling insecure, the “in-clique’ tend to spend a lot of time engaging in conspiracy theories and dissecting your character in personal posts between themselves.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KjpyHX7X-o

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 4 5 6 9

Comments are closed.