Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria

The Australian has opted to deliver the bi-monthly Victorian state Newspoll result for November-December before the holiday period rather than after. It finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 57-43, despite their primary vote dropping two points to 41 per cent while the Coalition remains steady on 35 per cent. The Australian report says the Greens are “steady” on 14 per cent, although this is in fact down a point on last time. John Brumby’s approval rating is up two points to 51 per cent, and his lead has preferred premier has increased from 52-27 to 54-26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Barking,

    You’re the one that prides itself on coming onto PB and starting fights. Your self confessed trolling hardly gives you any credibility. So “off” away.


    Not sure what your smoking, but it’s not helping you write even vaguely coherernt posts. How about you write what you think and leave me to write what I think. That will certainly work for me.

  2. The Barkingtroll fesses up.

    I Barking
    Posted Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:22 pm | Permalink
    Well I feel better, got a bit of frustration out there and caught a few ALP hacks at the same time, Always a pleasure gentlemen, and Oh I do the same thing on Andrew Bolts site. Its even more fun. I recommend it. Just hit and run, I don’t even bother hanging around, Its so predictable they go off. Just suggest that Bolts is not all the Messiah thing that they think he is,, or Better Say that Al Gore is the Messiah and bang, off like a Hong Kong Sky rocket.

  3. Ok GG, I’ll write it so that even you can understand it.

    Whenever a Green or non major party supporter talks about how well their party should do/has done at a byelection (Cunningham, Fremantle), you and your mates say it doesn’t matter because it was a byelection.

    Now you are saying that the Greens are hopeless because they didn’t win Albert Park and Higgins. I dont know a single Green that thought that the Greens would/could win either seat.

    So what are you arguing today? that byelection results can affect a general election or not?

    And I know as someone supporting the Vic ALP personal attacks are in your blood, but can you at least TRY to attack an arguament now and then?

  4. Dave,

    You start off with bright intentions in your first sentence and then it’s downhill all the way.

    Paras 2 and 3. Never said either. Therefore, your whole conclusion is crap.

    Tip “You and and your mate’s sez” is a poor line of argument. Some might say you’re trying to fit someone up for something they never said.

    As I said earlier, I’ll write what I think and you can write what you think.

  5. Dave,

    So the fact I never said what you said I said is of no consequence to you. Verballing people is not a way to win an argument or get any respect.

  6. At least Mexicanbeemer and Frank are capable of a discussion.

    Attempting to have a discussion with Greensborough Growler, on the other hand, is like talking to BlogWarBot. No matter what the question, you can be pretty much guaranteed it’s going to be met with “the Greens are evil!”, and he hasn’t got a damn thing to actually back any of his rants up.

  7. Rebecca,

    Good to see you’ve got your daily dose of abuse out of your system. Namecalling abuse is such a Greens thing to do.

  8. Rebecca~ Politics is a bit like fopotball, there is a lot of passion and sure i cantake an extreme position but i actually like my ideas being tested by others and like reading other people’s views.

    A closed mind is a dead mind.

  9. The point gg misses is that most people involved in politics have the betterment of the country as their main objective. Now most of us would agree that the coalition are run by vested interests etc, but hey we have met lots of them and Malcolm Turball for example, Brain like a planet, supported a Republic, couldn’t go the monty on Global Warming, a man of great character.
    There is little point just slagging people off, if someone doesn’t give up after a few jibs then its about news and current affairs. i stay on here because there is gold burried under alot of the nonsense.
    The next cycle of elections are important, we are seeing the shift to a long term Fed ALP. The States are moving to the opposition. This is a historic trend. Victoria is different, However, land planning issues, health, water, Melb 2020 etc are the areas where they will fall. A upperhouse with Greens in the Balance of power will probably prolong the Government. When the opposition finally get the green chairs again there is no doubt that they will have a hostile upper house. They will have to deal with the ALP or the Greens. Now that is an interesting thought. Good luck Mr Mulder, but it does give an insight into the conduct or the possible conduct of the Coalition. Just a thought, but GG try and think beyond the slag, we all do it but it gets tiresome after a while.

  10. Rebecca

    Glad to see you agree that you enjoy your ideas being debated and ideas tested – and keep an open mind.

    I think we all agree robust debate is healthy.

    However, unfortunately some people like G.Growler resort to the personal attack and name calling. Once you realise that and don’t allow them to distract you from your train of thought, rational and robust debate is possible.

    Another thing I learned from this site is that it helps if you have a lot of patience with and tolerance for fools.

  11. Barking,

    Fine words of self delusion in 66 but you expect everyone to forgive and forget your self confessed trolling in 54. It is a terrible thing when someone uses your own words back at you to highlight the discrepancies between what you say and what you do.


    Another one screaming blue murder when their hypocrisy is exposed. Too much tippling of the cooking sherry can do that to you! Maybe, if you put your own name in place of mine, you’d be closer to the truth of the matter.

    Peter Young,

    Another poster that has risen without trace.

    I’m impertinent to your blandishments.

  12. The ALP in Vic have reponded to the ‘Alcohol fuelled Violence’ in classic ALP fashion. More laws and calls for the ‘cracking down on loutish behaviour.’
    There is of course a big part of this in neutralising the Coalitions attack on Law and Order.
    Why oh Why don’t Baillieu and Ryan come out and attack the ALP for Taking Money form the Alcohol Lobby. Oh Thats right they are sponsored by the Alcohol Lobby, just like the ALP.
    A bit like the Casino thing where it appeared that the Coalition did a back flip over the number of machines they supported.
    A far more effective reponse to the Alcohol Fuelled Violence would of course be to have a “Less Alcohol less Violence’ stance, however this could ge down like a lead balloon with the ‘sponsor’ (AHA, etc) and could be made to look a bit prudish by the Media. Lets face it, they get a fair bit of space from adverting for alcohol.

  13. Nice strawman Borking. Any statistics to verify that “alcohol fuelled violence” is any more prevalent than it has been for years?

  14. The way to drastically reduce the alcohol fuelled violence is to find a way to effectively enforce the laws against selling alcohol to intoxicated persons and then implement it. Limits on the number of units of alcohol per purchase, require large premises to devote a minimum proportion of their service areas to non-alcoholic drinks and legal limits (like .05 but higher) on the levels of intoxication allowed for purchase of alcohol, presence on a licensed premises and in a public place and have enforcement thereof.

  15. Tom the first and best~ you are correct therefore if the police increased their petols of pubs and clubs you would see an impovement.

    By the nature of Pubs one expects the odd dust up but it does appear that during the last decade we became a little lazy at monitoring

  16. GG,
    I agree that the actual biffo is not much changed, I was talking about the media’s beat up of the issue.
    However, the rest of the post stands.
    I agree with Tom the First and the Best and Mexicanbeemer, the trouble is that the Police don’t really want to waste to many resources, the ALP and the Coalition do recieve large sponsorships from the industry and whilst they are both trying to get the ‘tough on crime’ lead, they don’t want to be seen as prudish.

  17. I highly doubt that Brumby or any other Premier is going to seriously crack down on alcohol consumption along the lines suggested here any time soon – for the reason that it’s an obvious electoral loser.

    Most of the country enjoys a drink, and any legislation along these lines would be rightly whacked around for nannystateism. Just because the temperance movement has updated its rhetoric for the times doesn’t make them actually popular.

  18. Rebecca the current laws are actually very tough but the government has become lazy in enforcing them, now i am not saying restrict drinking, i am saying restrict anti social behaviour which has little to do with drink and more to do with bogans looking to cause trouble.

  19. [Over the past 12 months, police arrested 21,552 people for drunk, 4090 more, or 23.4 per cent higher than the previous year. This is significantly more than five years ago when just over 12,000 people were arrested for drunk.

    Mr Overland said the latest statistics demonstrated the significant work being undertaken by Victoria Police members on a daily basis to tackle alcohol related assaults and crime across the state.]

    [“Police have been out on the streets and in licensed venues every weekend addressing this issue. It is tough work and often our members are confronted with highly intoxicated, aggressive people,” Mr Overland said.

    “We will continue to focus our efforts on this issue, but as I have said previously this is not just about putting more police on the streets. This is about changing people’s behaviour and imploring them to take responsibility for their actions and drinking habits.”]

    An extract from one of many articles which cites a drop in crime levels and a rise in the POLICING of alcohol fuelled crime. (Note there is nothing to substantiate a claim that there is a rise in alcohol fuelled crimes, just a rise in the policiting of it).

    So it doesn’t look like a government which isn’t acting because it’s in the thrall of the alcohol industry.

    As someone who recently completed my RSA course, one of the first things we’re told is that, no matter how vigilant we are, we will serve alcohol to someone who is drunk.

    This is because alcohol has a delayed reaction. The person you are serving may look bright eyed and bushy tailed now, but in ten minutes time they could be obviously drunk.

    I’ve marshalled sporting events and I’ve seen it happen – counted the number of drinks someone in the crowd has consumed, told them that that’s probably enough, they’ve looked fine…half an hour later had to physically remove them.

    BTW, if anyone’s going to argue with the crime stats, please do your own googling and use some facts. Your own gut feelings and accusations of corruption are not enough.

  20. mb,

    The role of Government is to make the laws. Enforcement is a Police matter and I presume they set their priorities based on the best allocation of resources. So, accusing the Government of being “lazy” is BS.

    I’m sure there is a perception that violence is rife. However, I think it is more to do with CC TV footage being played on Youtube. The “blues” have always happened. It is just we now have pictures in graphic colour that shows what happens. Some people are horrified. Similarly, violence that happens in say Sydney is highlighted on the news as if it is happening in Melbourne. Suddenly, people feel insecure.

    My contention is that “alcohol fueled violence is no more or less a problem than it has always been. The “booze” culture of Australians has been around since the First Fleet.

  21. GG,

    In many ways you are absolutely correct for i go out many times and don’t see violence.

    When i say the Government has been lazy i am using that term as short hand for the over all response from police command and the court system.

    The problem with this debate and similar ones is the media tend to get existed and start pushing lines without getting their facts straight.

    The Goverment already has very tough legistration on its books that copuld be used to pull those clubs that tolerate violence.

    Most pubs and clubs would support the cowboys being brought into line. the thing many dills in the media don’t understand is Governments act on advise based on evidence, i also suspect the media spend a lot of time playing to the democraphics of their readsership and viewers.

    Another factor is some of the violence is a result of the homeless or mentally ill now i know our media has problems telling a straight story but there is an underbally in our soceity made up of about 5% but this is the crunch the media will one day crap on about the Government spending on welfare then next day complain the Government is not spending enough.

  22. The answer to alcohol fuelled violence: 1.statewide education in schools year 10 to 12 by police on the perrils of drinking to excess and that people will be arrested on the spot and have a criminal conviction (that will stay on record for 1 year) this will prohibit them from many employment opportunities/career moves etc.
    2. An increase police presence, new permamnent small outstations with lock up facilities- instant arrest overnight, heavy fine $500
    3. a down grading of recreational drugs such as exctasy to class B. This is is by far more prefereable to alcohol, virtuallt no violence and a handful of reported deaths world wide.

  23. [I’m pretty sure Aussies’ perspective would change if a terrorist attack were conducted on their own soil.]

    [As OPT says, there’s been the Hilton bombing.

    There was also the bombing of Darwin, and the sub attack on Sydney.]

    Granted there have been attacks on Aussie soil. But those incidents happened decades before what I may refer to here as the Modern Age of Terrorism. Defined as contemporary Islamic terrorism beginning with 911, through the London tubeway bombings, Bali and Madrid etc.

    Fortunately Australia has thus far escaped direct embroilment on domestic soil. Though our national contribution to the Iraq fiasco, and our government acquiescence to the US’s unreasonable detainment-without-charge of Muslim, David Hicks, must certainly have increased our risk of and exposure to possible terrorist reprisal.

  24. My work occasionally leads me to look at historic newspapers. Earlier this year I was looking at papers from 1851 for background on that year’s bushfires, and it was apparent from the other stories to be seen that public alarm over alcohol-related violence in central Melbourne has been with us for at least 158 years.

  25. Blair,
    Great work, my personal interest is Roman History, If I had a dollar for every time there was a shit fight during the Republic/empire I would be laughing all the way to the bank. Reminds me of when I was young.
    Thats the whole point of this debate, its bull.
    However, heres the rub., In the rush to get the ‘tough on crime’ ticket, the majors are again rushing to the bottom.
    ‘Ducks his head for the onslaught of abuse from likely suspects.’

  26. [It’s a bit rich to suggest that the failure to pull that off says anything much in particular.]

    The Greens Party failure to win Higgins probably has more to do with the fact that, just as the Liberals did, they voted against the only serious attempt presented to the Australian Parliament to actually do something about climate change. So as best I can tell the Greens Party candidate and the Liberal Party candidate were both supporting doing nothing.

  27. It will be interesting to see how the negotiations between the Greens and ALP go on with 25-40 % as the starting point.
    The Vic State Governments attempts at selling the COAL to the India etc makes it hard to envisage anyone falling for the old, ‘Its the ALP who are most committed to Climate Change’. Listening to some of the attempts here, it can only be baiting.

  28. I know most of the journos are on holidays now, but things are still going on in the non-western world, eg Iran, Thailand and Africa to name a few places. Just compare the Al Jazeera english website to local news content:

    I found the Iranian situation particulalry interesting. As always Juan Cole also has a good coverage of Mid-east events:

    As for Oz I agree with the comments on a trend towards Labor Federal and Liberal State governemnts. However I think SA, like Victoria, will see Labor relected.

  29. If you go to the Country Alliance web site they have candidates for two of the regional/rural areas, no-one for Northern. They are just anti-green did apreference split between the ALp and the Coalition last time, averaged about 1.5% not sure why they bother. I don’t think they would take one vote from the Greens and as for they line of keeping Green radicals out of the Upper house, not much problem in the bush.

  30. “What you can do

    Are you sick and tired of the attacks on country people and country life by city-centric pollies and urban based greenies ?

    You can help us work towards ensuring better representation of rural areas by joining us online by clicking here or completing and sending us our application form (click here to download it in Word version) or (click here to dowload it in PDF version) to:

    Country Alliance
    Reply Paid 253
    MITCHAM VIC 3132
    (no stamp needed)
    Or email us with your details and we will send one to you. If you wish to speak with us, please call us on (03) 9017 6119 or mobile 0425 746 066.

    Memberships and donations to Country Alliance are tax deductable
    Click here to find out more. ”

    Now let me see, Mitcham is?

  31. Barking,

    Most Greens supporters live within 10ks of the CBD. Does this mean they have a personal affinity with droughts, floods and deforestation.

  32. Tom the Greens received swings to them in the Liberal booths and swings against them in the ALP booths.

    GG the Greens have two areas of strenght in Victoria, one is the inner City and the other is the area around St Andrews/Kinglake down to the Dandenong ranges.

  33. Barking

    I once met the guy who was instrumental in starting Country Alliance up (don’t know if he’s still involved).

    Very much the inner city bushie type, with a farm at Mansfield. Also very much a big noter (“as I was saying to the Premier’ etc – to a group of people who knew the Premier as a humble backbencher).

    They like dressing up in Akubras, Drizabones and RM Williams boots.

  34. GG, there is no doubt that the ‘Sell Coal to anyone’ ALP will try and spin out this stuff. I think Colleen Hartland needs to bite back with more focus on the hypocracy of the ALP’s position and I don’t think anyone is interested in whether she thinks the years is going to be a tough one, what does she expect. Having said that it show that the ALP are concerned with the growth of the inner Green vote. One thing that is lost is that all these inner seats are only ‘live’ for the Greens if the COALition preferences the Greens and come third.
    This seems to be a given, but I suspect that the COALition see no real benefit in this, other than to piss off the ALP.
    Zoomster, thanks for the story about the Country Alliance, its interesting that the ALP have extended the duck season, just the sort of think that the CA love. Their two candidates are real rooting shooting types, strong on conservation. Reminds me of an old Green story, the shooters party tried to do a preference swap about 15 years ago, they sent a letter outlining the similarities around the conservation issues and then stated. ‘Apart from the difference of opinion on the hunting of the ducks etc we are closer to the Greens than any other party.” Laughed like hyena’s.

  35. oh GG, its interesting that the ALP are going early on this issue, it highlights what many are suspecting. The 2010 State Election will be two or three elections in one. Overall a strong swing to the ALP. More seats in the Lower House, etc. Then the possibility of the loss of some inner Melb seats. (Please note the use of the word ‘possible’). To the Greens, . And finally the possible swing away from the ALP in the Bush. The only trouble in the bush is that the ALP only get about 30% of the vote, so its a bit hard to see it falling much. howver in their lower house seats, Seymour for instance (strongly effected by the North South pipe) they could go.

  36. Barking,

    Yeah sure, Labor in Victoria are in so much trouble, that on current polling they’ll be returned with an increased majority. They might even win the LC as well.

    The answer to Hartland and the Greenkins is what have you actually done to address CC. Posturing and name calling won’t cut it. How many opportunities will the Greens miss to actually do something on CC? I’m sure you will be hearing more of this. How many times can the Greens say we will do everything short of doing something about CC?

  37. GG I said that “Overall a strong swing to the ALP. More seats in the Lower House, etc”
    What Colleen Hartland should have said was “Peter Bachelor, with his Coal to India, and the ALP know that they have a real credibility issue on Global Warming. People know that its the Greens who are the only political party that will stand up to vested interests and start doing something on Global Warming. When the Greens win the balance of power the first thing they will do is start exposing the links between the dirty polluters and the ALP and the COALition. Its about time there waws open and transparent sponsorship disclosure. The ALP are not fooling many peolpe here, it only the Greens who are totally committed to doing things from the grass roots level, right up to the global scale on Global Warming. Its the Greens who have supported stronger targets, real action and improved feed in tariffs,` just to name a few. Voters concerned about Global Warming from both the ALP and the COAlition sides of politics will have two chances this year to send an unambiguous message to their old politicians, “Start now, join with the Greens in doing something for the future, whislt never having voted Green, this years thats about to change.”
    The polls are saying as much,

  38. Haa,
    Three things the ALP have done for Global Warming,
    1)Spend hundreds of millions of taxpayers money of the nonexistant Carbon capture scheme,
    2)Supported digging up millions tonnes dirty COAL and exporting it to India,
    3)Set targets under the ETS that are no good and given billions to their sponsors in the polluting industries.!

  39. 90

    The seats covering the area within 10 km of the CBD are Williamstown, Footscray, Niddrie, Essendon, Pascoe Vale, Preston, Ivanhoe, Kew, Hawthorn, Burwood, Malvern, Caulfield, Brighton, Albert Park, Melbourne, Brunswick, Northcote, Richmond and Prahran. That is 19 seats out of 88 (21.59%) and not all of those seats contain only area within 10 km of the CBD. In fact all of the outer ring of seats contain area outside 10 km of the CBD and Niddrie and Burwood are in the majority beyond 10 km. If we say that the equivalent in enrolments of 5 seats from the group of 19 are beyond 10 km then that leaves 14 seat equivalents out of 88 (15.91%) then we have a reasonable estimate of the proportion of the electorate within 10 km of the CBD.

    The Greens got 10.04% in 2006. For a majority of the Green vote (5.03%) to have come from within this area would mean they averaged over 31%% in this area. They did not break 30% overall in any seat.

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