Tony Abbott has emerged victorious from this morning’s Liberal leadership showdown after defeating Malcolm Turnbull 42 votes to 41, with Joe Hockey unexpectedly knocked out in the first round. The result joins 1971’s tied no-confidence motion against John Gorton and Mark Latham’s 47-45 win over Kim Beazley in 2003 in the pantheon of leadership ballot cliffhangers. Whether this episode is likely to end more happily than the other two, I leave to others to judge (UPDATE: Tim Blair identifies a more auspicious example). Two factors of immediate electoral significance: a secret ballot held immediately after the leadership vote decisively determined that the Coalition would oppose the emissions trading scheme, confirming the government will receive its double dissolution trigger; and Malcolm Turnbull has announced he will not resign from parliament, thus depriving us of a by-election in Wentworth.
If anyone’s interested, here are some more mundane electoral developments of the past week or so:
• The NSW Greens have chosen Nature Conservation Council executive director Cate Faehrmann to fill the state upper house vacancy that will be created when Lee Rhiannon runs for the Senate at the next federal election. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald notes that Faehrmann ran unsuccessfully for Senate preselection against Rhiannon with the backing of Bob Brown. The party has also finalised its upper house ticket for the next state election: David Shoebridge, barrister and Woollahra councillor, will take the unloseable first position; Byron Bay mayor Jan Barham will take the highly winnable second position; and Orange City councillor Jeremy Buckingham will get the rather more difficult third position. Clennell reports this as a defeat for the “harder left” tendency assoociated with Rhiannon, which backed Rockdale councillor Lesa de Leau. Faehrmann will not be required to run at the next election due to the chamber’s staggered eight-year terms.
• Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that the Left has endorsed Jonathan Jackson, chartered accountant and son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson, to replace retiring factional colleague Duncan Kerr in the Hobart-based federal seat of Denison. Stedman also names as a possible starter Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, previously mentioned as the Left’s nominee for a Senate position after Kevin Rudd vetoed Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins. Apparently still in contention are constitutional lawyer George Williams, Kerr staffer and state Lyons candidate Rebecca White, and local state member Lisa Singh.
• Speaking to reporter James Carleton on Radio National Breakfast with Fran Kelly yesterday, local branch president and Wran government minister Rodney Cavalier complained Stephen Jones was to be given the Throsby preselection as reward for affiliating his Community and Public Sector Union with the ALP. Jones has been the only nominee for a position the national executive will rubber-stamp on Friday, having decided to deny local branches a ballot. Sources cited by Carleton also say outgoing member Jennie George was “pushed into retirement under threat of disendorsement”, although George denies this.
• Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports three candidates are believed to be interested in the Country Liberal Party preselection for the ultra-marginal Darwin-based seat of Solomon, where Labor’s Damian Hale narrowly defeated sitting member David Tollner (now in the Territory parliament) in 2007. The three are “Darwin City Council alderman Garry Lambert, Palmerston Deputy Mayor Natasha Griggs and Tourism Top End head Tony Clementson”. Tennant Creek businessman Tony Civitarese is mentioned as the likely candidate to run against Warren Snowdon in the Territory’s other electorate, Lingiari.
• Rebecca Lollback of the Northern Star reports Clunes businessman Kevin Hogan has been preselected unopposed as Nationals candidate for Page.
• Shannon Crane of the Border Mail reports the Victorian Nationals have preselected Moira deputy mayor Tim McCurdy to replace the retiring Ken Jasper in the state seat of Murray Valley. McMurdy reportedly saw off eight rival candidates, although the only one I can put a name to is former Olympic cyclist Dean Woods.
Anticipating bobs:
😀
[41 43 (3.5) 10.5 1.5 4 ]
Interesting spread
labor has dropped 6 the libs up 8
Its the summoning!
Mesma’s Pretty Boy is demanding Rudd calls a DD on the Slynews.
DAMN!!!!
[Mesma’s Pretty Boy is demanding Rudd calls a DD on the Slynews.]]
I thought Abbott would just ask for the keys to the lodge, now he is the annointed one
😉
this can’t be right 53/47
The results are pretty similar to Morgan’s last phone poll although Libs are up slightly.
[this can’t be right 53/47]
The think will win Q
[78 13 9 ]
Up 6 labor,down 6 liberal undecideds steady???
Finns
PVO is an idiot!! – PVO writes a book about Howard and everyone starts seeking his opinion it seems but that doesn’t change the fact that he is still an idiot. His analysis is ordinary to say the least and he is hardly balanced.
That has to be the first poll in years that has the Libs ahead of Labor on the primary vote.
Perhaps the end of the world really is upon us.
Is this the shock jock shock?
BK
the disconnect with the “think will win” is really strange in comparison to the 2pp
Labor has never had 78% believing they will win the next election!!!
lol @ 53
Pretty By asked: “Do you think the punters understand ETS?”
Simple. Of course, the punters understand that ETS puts a price on pollution and the polluters have to pay.
How hard is it?
Gus
Yeah, but it’s disappointing that people can get sucked in by the crap that’e been floating around.
Finns
I regret to think that they are being sucked in by the mantra of “great big new tax”.
It’s now up to Rudd to push a consitstent and easily understood story of what it REALLY is.
Are you going to loosen the rosaries a notch?
Poor Barnaby the Nat vote has gone down. 🙂
[Are you going to loosen the rosaries a notch?]
BK, no because Abbott’s magic pudding will cost $2800 per household.
BK
also the confidence rating is at an almost historical low for the Rudd administration of
121
Gus
It’s annoying – not to mentionincomprehensible – to think that a bunch of incompetents and wingnuts can garner 47% support.
[It’s annoying – not to mentionincomprehensible – to think that a bunch of incompetents and wingnuts can garner 47% support.]
Morgan has credence now? 🙂
Teh Evil Rudd is driving away Santas.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2761987.htm?section=justin
[not to mentionincomprehensible]
A Freudian typo no less!
should read “not to mention incomprehensible”
Another outlier?
A honeymoon for Abbott?
Barnaby Shadow Minister for Mental Health?
Nielsen Newspoll ER all demonstrated Labor was at about 56/57 before the Liberal descended into greater turmoil and embarrassment, and Labor performing in a steady reasonable fashion.
If anything Liberals position should have declined some. The dramatic turnaround in primaries doesn’t seem that credible to me. So my first inclination is to think this another outlier.
The question is will Morgan’s who got stuck in to Newspoll on their outlier will indicate that this poll could also be one?
[Another outlier?]
It would be typical timing
Let’s see how the polls go tomorrow. That’s the real test surely.
[However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.]
Did Possum get to Gary Morgan?
When does ER come out?
[Nielsen Newspoll ER all demonstrated Labor was at about 56/57 before the Liberal descended into greater turmoil and embarrassment, and Labor performing in a steady reasonable fashion.]
Not to mention that McNair poll yesterday (?) saying 57, although to be honest without any idea of its trends that’s pretty useless
Early morning shockjock up here was absolutely crowing this morning about ‘people power’ knocking off Kevin Rudd and that radio had turned things around for the Coalition and they would now win the next election.
Van Onselen was talking to Paul Howes and Switzer today on something called “Confrontation”. It was certainly that with VO talking over Paul Howes as often as he could. Actually Howes handles things very well and is easily understood. He certainly knows his Labor stuff. Van Onselen is a right dill.
Thinks that the bill going back to the Senate is the same as the original bill. Could someone please tell the twit that the bill going back in February will include the amendments negotiated with Turnbull and Macfarlane.
[It’s annoying – not to mentionincomprehensible – to think that a bunch of incompetents and wingnuts can garner 47% support.]
Given the very big hiatus that was going on, I’d prefer to wait for a couple more polls when the needle has stopped flickering before assessing the impact of the Libs change of leader and policy. This one could easily end up being a lone dot below the trend line.
[However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.]
ie, “I don’t really believe this result myself.”
jv
You’re probably right.
Actually, it’s a better result for Labor than the last Morgan phone poll.
Move along please. Nothing to see here.
[
On a two-party preferred basis the ALP (53%) retains an edge over the L-NP (47%) – figures barely changed from the last telephone Morgan Poll conducted on November 11/12, 2009 which showed the ALP (52%) ahead of the L-NP (48%). ]
[“Despite this positive news for the Liberal Party, a special telephone Morgan Poll today reveals Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (60%) is still clearly preferred as Australia’s Better Prime Minister than Abbott (25%).” ]
And therein lies the rub. Don’t matter how invigorated the party if, if the man throwing it isn’t popular then nobody wants to come.
Dio
A very good example of the facts speaking for themselves.
Thankyou.
if = is
[BK 4020
It’s annoying – not to mentionincomprehensible – to think that a bunch of incompetents and wingnuts can garner 47% support.]
Well I guess you know how the US democrats must have felt in 2000 and 2004 now!
And there I was thinking Watson’s an imposter. 2 wickets in just as few balls.
My prediction for Newspoll Monday is still Labor 59/41 2PP or better. I can’t believe this week can have helped the Liberals, or the Nationals for that matter, who sold out their own farmers.
Paul Howes got into the DT. He was scathing. Of course PVO tried to defend them.
Socrates.
Too right!
I was in Boston the week of the 2000 election and thereafter I have maintained a keen interest in US politics.
It worries me to see (with lag) the emerging similarities between the Coalition and the Republicans and the ravings of certain sections of the populare media.
Van Onselen’s political leanings are quite obvious in his writings and sometimes he can’t help himself and it becomes blatant, almost hysterical.
I think the other day he was hysterical in his attack on Labor and used the terms referring to Labor on the urgency of an ETS as ‘…a complete and utter fraud…’
If you are a journalist or somebody meant to be providing a balanced honest analysis you don’t use the term ‘fraud’ and certainly don’t add ‘complete’ or ‘utter’ to it. At most you could and should be saying, if your giving an honest analysis, that the need for urgency on the ETS is called into question…etc.
He signalled very clearly there his political leanings.
[ravings of certain sections of the populare media]
That’s what happens when the nutters own it
[Van Onselen is a right dill]
But he did say Turnbull only had 10-12 votes last Tuesday. So he is a right dill who can’t count.
The results of the ‘heading in the right direction’ question could be interpreted as supporting the ALP. If I had been asked that question after the Senate voted down the CPRS I would have answered that I thought Australia was heading in the wrong direction and I don’t vote Liberal. So it may reflect some disaffected Labor voters shifting.
BK
I have been dismayed in my career how many “policy experts” in governmetn departments seem to simply recycle some trend from the US or UK 5 to 10 years after it was introduced there (often aroudn the time they realised it didn’t work!). I can’t believe the lazier amoung political staffers don’t do the same; apologies to any here present.