Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
[ Turnbull will not resign and will go to the backbench.]
Very appropriate – the new team will have their back’s to him.
He will have newly sharpened knives at the ready.
Unfinished business.
[ There’s Abbott’s first mistake.
JB for Deputy?]
Correct
Turnbull:
[The Liberal Party respects the guidance of its leader.]
Of course Turnbull said that sarcastically, becuase the party didn’t respect his guidance last Tuesday.
[Remember, Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to dust the furniture]
I have been missing these updates dario.
🙂
Ahh the woodside letter is brought up 🙂
For the South Aussies, this is going to be BIG. To be accredited to work, all the surgeons in the unit need to sign a form to say they will supervise the trainee. So how did they sign the forms if they were “unaware of the arrangement”. Did they sign the forms at all?
[Counsel assisting the Coroner Amy Cacas told the court Dr Sherbon’s list of concerns about Dr Benjamin Bidstrup, who was on an unpaid retraining visit to the hospital, included that hospital management and staff were unaware of that arrangement.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26423455-5006301,00.html
So, do we now give Clive Hamilton a decent chance of winning Higgins?
Bradfield is too blue ribbon Liberal safe for Fletcher to be in any trouble, I’d assume.
LOL! Bob Ellis just wanders into shot. 😀
Can i write NO on my ballot paper this Saturday Bradfield by election?
And I’m off to bed, see you in thge afternoon.
Skynews reporting that the informal vote had one word on the ballot: “NO”.
Could this vote have been Joe Hockey’s, I wonder?
[Bradfield is too blue ribbon Liberal safe for Fletcher to be in any trouble, I’d assume.]
But now some moderate Liberal voters are going to vote against the Liberals because they don’t like Abbott. Even if 5% of Liberal voters do that at the next election the Liberals will lose a dozen seats.
[Can i write NO on my ballot paper this Saturday Bradfield by election?]
Finns, I’m next door to you, in Berowra!
I’d dearly love to vote next Saturday, I’d take great pleasure in putting the Liberals last. 😉
BTW How’s Miss Pole Dancer doing with her campaign? 🙂
[Can i write NO on my ballot paper this Saturday Bradfield by election?]
Add another square with Malcolm Turnbull next to it and put your #1 there.
The news has just broken in my office, all the women are groaning and saying “oh my god I can’t believe it”…..ooh this will be good.
I am going to cross out Liberal and put Loser in Higgins but vote formaly for mad Clive
[Skynews reporting that the informal vote had one word on the ballot: “NO”.]
They took the whole “If you don’t know vote no” thing to literally.
I hope Clive doesn’t get up
He’s a self-promoting nutter who thinks the net can/should be censored.
So what will Abbott do to repackage himself as a moderate?
[I am going to cross out Liberal and put Loser in Higgins but vote formaly for mad Clive]
Are you sure that’s a formal vote?
Sure is Triton, all the squares will be numbered 1 to 10
[So what will Abbott do to repackage himself as a moderate?]
More shots of him in his speedos?
ShowsOn @1716, He’ll do what the conservatives are good at. Lie. Dissemble. Distort.
So much to enjoy, but I think if it were me I’d dance to the election with:
‘jokers to the left of me, clowns to the right and here we are stuck in the middle without a CPRS’.
I think the Greens strategy needed a bad CPRS to ‘improve’. Being stuck without one at all leaves them with the ‘no scheme is better than that scheme’ which I don’t think will be so effective.
[So what will Abbott do to repackage himself as a moderate?]
frontal lobotomy?
[Are you sure that’s a formal vote?]
Yes that’s a formal vote as long as all candidates are numbered and the voter doesn’t put their name on the ballot.
I could write mad goat F#$%@er and it will still be formal…It will give the scrutineers a good laugh I hope
[Seconds after Mr Abbott beat Malcolm Turnbull by one vote, he then declared a secret ballot on the ETS.
The motion proposed that the legislation should be delayed for three months, and if this could not be secured, then the legislation should be defeated.
The motion was carried by 54 votes to 29, guaranteeing the death of the Rudd Government’s ETS.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091201-k1uz.html
But will 7 Lib Senators cross the floor…
Turnbull is still running for Leader. That’s my take on his press conference.
He’s now got a couple of months to relax and re-charge the batteries, while Tony deals with all the crap that Labor’s about to throw at them.
Should be interesting.
We have to number 1 to 22 in Bradfield!
I can’t wait …
[Ms Bishop said she was delighted Mr Abbott had been elected leader.
‘‘We have a great challenge ahead of us.’’
But a moderate source said the party had just ‘‘f—– ourselves over’’.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091201-k1uz.html
The SMH says the ETS is dead because of the 54-29 secret ballot in the party room, but I’m not so sure that there won’t be at least 7 who see the CPRS legislation as important enough to cross the floor over. There must be some Lib moderates who see the elevation of Abbott as the virtual end of the party. If there are any, for them passing the CPRS bill may be of greater importance than party discipline in the midst of the current turmoil, after a margin of just one vote on the leadership. I fervently hope so, anyway.
Immortality for Mad Monk in his red cossie, classic, just ask Peter Denman.
The irony of Morris cautioning Liberal MPs against going against the leader and partyroom. Pity the rightwingers couldn’t abide that advice.
Who will be the new environment/climate change spokesperson?
Dennis Jensen?
Don’t laugh, it may happen! 😉
The next Newspoll will be a belter. If support for the Libs dies as women esp flee Tony Abbott it will be on again.
This ain’t over by a long shot.
[The next Newspoll will be a belter. If support for the Libs dies as women esp flee Tony Abbott it will be on again.]
The guy from Newspoll said yesterday that the high 50s for Labor is effectively a ceiling because beyond that are the rusted-on conservative voters.
Listening to Abbott, I suspect ETS wont be the only DD trigger; very Whitlamesque indeed!
OMG! Abbott just reiterated Hockeynomics, that all the interest rate rises from now on were caused by the Government!
Abbott is a shocker of a speaker
[Abbott’s unpolished bluntness, and honesty to a fault, will be a beautiful contrast with Kevin Rudd’s mealy-mouthed gobbledigook and tortured language. Voters will have a real choice.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26424832-5006301,00.html
Ahh Mark Kenny, Liberal tool extraordinaire.
Here’s the turncoat, twisting and turning
The claim is 1 Turnbull supporter voted “No”:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-to-stand-against-joe-hockey-malcolm-turnbull-for-liberal-leadership/story-e6frf7jo-1225805513782
If that person voted Turnbull, it would’ve been 42 – 42. WHAT THE HELL would’ve they done then!?
Held another spill and rated for Fran Bailey? Alloed Newlson and Costello back to vote?
Just called up Howard and asked him who should lead?
‘Goetze” Abbott – LOL
He must be like that if both Pell and Minchin have their arms up his nether regions!!
Julie Bishop looks like the cat who ate the budgie.
[The guy from Newspoll said yesterday that the high 50s for Labor is effectively a ceiling because beyond that are the rusted-on conservative voters.]
Labor managed a 63-37 Newspoll with Rudd on 73% PPM when the apology happened.
And the biggest loser from today is… JOE HOCKEY
Sorry Joe, you got played by the puppeteer Minchin, and he used you like the bumbling fool you are. Should have bided your time Joe instead of going in limp-wristed. Costello mkII.
Mesma is beyond contempt. She should stay on the couch.
Quick, whats the papal position on climate change? 🙂
Incredible turn of events in Australian Mad Men. Glued to set. Please let there be more episodes.
Looking forward to a ALP-Green negotiated CPRS deal after 2010. Predict ALP v Green contests in all inner cities for the first, but not the last time.
[The guy from Newspoll said yesterday that the high 50s for Labor is effectively a ceiling because beyond that are the rusted-on conservative voters.]
From looking at the News blogs, there are plenty of Lib voters who won’t vote for Abbott. It hasn’t gone down well at all.