Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
Andrews on Fox being all magnanimous and pious – he comes my breakfast!
Turnbull will be laughing his guts out! This is far better than Hockey getting up!
After Saturday, there will be two more votes for Turnbull in the next spill which will be soon!
Paul Fletcher and Kelly O’Dwyer will be in the Parliament and will surely vote for Malcy in the next spill and the split left will have gathered their senses and realised what they have done!
My prediction for the next spill, Turnbull by at least 20 votes over Abbott!
You heard it here first! 😉
Oh Glory Day!
The best possible result for everyone except the Libs!
Remember remember the first of December!!!
Right, who’s for the pub?
[They have an abbott and a bishop – what they need is a deacon, but Affable Alfred has left the building.]
Isn’t it great that a century after the non-Labor parties merge in to the Deakinite Liberal Party, that they’re now in the position that they are, with Abbott taking over.
Dyno @1610 – you’re so right re Hockey. Best thing that could have happened to him.
Who will MM appoint shadow treasurer – any guesses?
The moderate Liberals, like the Government, just need to sit back and watch Abbott and the right self-destruct.
I feel very sorry for O’Dwyer and Fletcher. What a mess they’ve signed up to join!
Well those Liberal moderate Senators should cross the floor before Abbott decides on his shadow ministry.
The moderates have nothing to lose, they are now on the outer! The senators should do the decent thing, show some balls, and cross the floor!
What will Turnball and Hockey do now?
Hockey actually is the biggest loser of the lot, he got into bed with Minchin and he was stabbed in the back! Serves him right actually!
Turnball can probably hang around on the backbench for a few months, watch this lot implode, and then return on his white charger to save them. 🙂
Fran Bailey was not there and two MPs are to be elected (Bradfield and Higgins) and an informal vote.
Herr Doktor, Labor should start pointing out that Abbott leadership is not legitimate
Barnaby – “This side of the chamber will be as one.”
Phespos wrote,
“If the Greens had found an acceptable candidate for Higgins they might have a chance of an upset now, but the Vic Greens always run feral extremists and sabotage their own chances.”
Hello the Libs just elected Tony Abbott. Nutbar
[Andrews saying
We now need to be a strong, united and focused opposition ]
That’s the same crap he spewed out the day after the ETS vote.
[My prediction for the next spill, Turnbull by at least 20 votes over Abbott!
You heard it here first]
Bloody good point Scorp
You might be right, but malcolm pulled out all stops to try to win this ballot.
The closeness does not bode well for abbott and the two new libs certainly will change the dynamic again.
I Think the last chapter is still to be written
Their ABC is really promoting the tax crap.
It proves too that enough of these Liberals were blackmailed into voting for Abbott, because of the anti-ETS campaign whipped up by talkback radio!
[Your wet dreams do not equate to you making a prediction]
My dreams are always rational and predictive 😛
MT on at 10:25, lets see what he has to say!
Bob, I am in such a good mood this morning that I feel benevolent even towards you. I agree with your 1652. The Deakinites would never have let a Papist lead them.
Now Turnbull can relax. Providing the media with a detailed response to the Godwin Grech senate report will be a doddle in comparison to the seppuku* he has just endured.
Seppuku (???, “stomach-cutting”) is a form of Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment. Seppuku was originally reserved only for samurai. Part of the samurai honor code, seppuku was used voluntarily by samurai to die with honor rather than fall into the hands of their enemies, as a form of capital punishment for samurai who have committed serious offenses, and for reasons that shamed them. Seppuku is performed by plunging a sword into the abdomen and moving the sword left to right in a slicing motion. The practice of committing seppuku at the death of one’s master, known as oibara (?? or ???, the kun’yomi or Japanese reading) or tsuifuku (??, the on’yomi or Chinese reading), follows a similar ritual.
Graham Morris talking Andrews up :
[ He has performed very well in all of this and should be offered a senior role under the new leadership ]
Does this gift never stop giving.
Ho ho ho
I actually think the Hockey “no policy” platform would have been a (slightly) bigger long-term problem for the Liberal party than this is.
As it is, Abbott is going to be humiliated some time in the next year, either at a general election, or with horrible polls leading to yet another spill. At last that’s putting the blame where it belongs for the current disastrous state of the party.
If we’d had Hockey, on a platform of “we don’t know what to think about the ETS”, the fighting would have continued ad nauseam, and someone who could still be a decent leader in 5-10 years would have been spat up and chewed up by Labor and the media, probably never to recover.
Remember that we had to have the debacle of Downer in order to make the Party realise that the obvious thing to do was have Howard back as Leader.
Still, it’s a painful time in prospect.
For the Liberals, this is the only chance they have of winning the next 2 election
The ETS killing off our cash cows – the Aluminium and Coal industry, which has supported our economy the last 8-10 years -> unemployment
And the ETS on energy to bit
They will no longer blame the Liberals
[Graham Morris talking Andrews up :
He has performed very well in all of this and should be offered a senior role under the new leadership]
Bring back Bronnie at the same time! And Wilson Tuckey!
You’d think there’s no place for Turnball, Chainsaw, Pyne, Hunt and maybe Hockey in the new administration, but who knows?
Does Abbott have the guts to kill the CPRS bill today?
Gillard would love to be the one to take the trip to the GG…
I might point out that Turnbull would have won this if he hadn’t stuffed up Grech so Grech is responsible for the ETS not passing. It’s the butterfly effect.
Musrum
Abbott should let Rudd’s ETS pass
[Does Abbott have the guts to kill the CPRS bill today?
Gillard would love to be the one to take the trip to the GG]
0 chance an election would be called now. An election in late December? Not going to happen.
He’ll definitely offer Hockey a spot, and probably Pyne I’d say. Not sure about the other moderates.
[ @mirandadevine: Abbott is a win for the Liberal base – now they can build.]
OMG
Thunk
The cool aid is has now been mixed !
Coalition members please form an orderly queue and drink it down !
Dyno: You’re probably correct, Abbott can’t stack the entire front bench with right wingers, he’d need some semblance of appealing to moderates.
I doubt though that Chainsaw will put his hand up, I bet he goes to the backbench with Turnball.
[@mirandadevine: Abbott is a win for the Liberal base – now they can build.]
I can’t believe we still have journalists in this country that think you win elections by appealing to your base.
Hockey is possibly going to go to the backbench and smoke Abbott out.
Penny is giving it to Joyce in the Senate!
Despite the Lathamesque lurch toward Abbott, I’m making the call of a brief Honeymoon for the “remarried” Nats/Lib Coalition with the next Newspoll showing Labor’s 2PP lead reduced to 53/47.
[@mirandadevine: Abbott is a win for the Liberal base – now they can build.]
Miranda, you sexy thang
[Mr Abbott told the party room that he would be inviting Mr Hockey to continue as shadow treasurer and Christopher Pyne, another moderate, to continue as leader of opposition business in the lower house.]
[0 chance an election would be called now. An election in late December? Not going to happen.]
Yeah, I guess. Can’t have the voters hot and bothered at the polling booths on a Climate Change election…
[I can’t believe we still have journalists in this country that think you win elections by appealing to your base.]
HA HA
Oh well, at least they’ve guaranteed a huge 40 seats next time, that’s a great springboard to rebuild the party from. 🙂
Turnbull not resigning from Wentworth.
MT not resigning immediately, but thinking about whether will contest next election.
And he’s going to the back bench “assuming that the parliament comes back” – nice line
Turnball going to the backbench!
Turnbull will not resign and will go to the backbench.
[and Christopher Pyne, another moderate, to continue as leader of opposition business in the lower house.]
There’s Abbott’s first mistake.
LOL! Turnbull reiterates that the amended CPRS should be passed!
[Their ABC is really promoting the tax crap]
Remember, Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to dust the furniture
[There’s Abbott’s first mistake.]
JB for Deputy?