Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:

• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.

Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.

Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.

Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.

• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,749 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. Just to take a shoprt side-track from tension …

    Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Joyce (all Jesuit boys), Andrews (CBC), Robb (CBC), Malcolm Turnbull also an RC …

    Where the bloody hell are the non-Catholics blokes?

  2. [The Libs have squibbed on the deal!]

    So Chainsaw did all that negotiating for zilch, it will be back to the unamended bill. 🙂

  3. did you see the photo of Joe Hockey leaving parliament squeezed into his wife’s yellow mini?

    I couldn’t find a link, except this:

  4. [My goodness but Joyce thinks he’s Costello reincarnated with his loud ranting. He’s building up like Cossie used to into a froth and lather – he’ll have a stroke!]

    AllanM – I was watching that while slaving in a hot, hot kitchen. Joyce made it worse but then Bob Brown cooled me down with a terrific rant at Joyce about his ‘working families’ and the COALition For the first time in this debate I cheered Bob Brown.

  5. [There will be no vote today.]

    Why do you think that? All it takes is Labor Senators + 7 Lib Senators to guilotine debate and force a vote.

  6. Serial points of order to interrupt the Minister on what may turn out to be the key vote putting speech. Tension is ticking up.

  7. Given the new amendments on the table, I don’t think the moderate Liberal senators will have the guts to squelch them until they’ve had a chance to be reviewed in the party room.

    Smart ploy on the hard-right part…

  8. President Hogg would have been notified (almost certainly) of the time limit deal. Turnbull is still Opposition Leader; McFarlaine the deal maker. Can’t see either ratting on the guillotine now.

    The rules are there in black, white with a touch of maroon on the Official Senate Website: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/guides/briefno14.htm

    And there’s no way in hell Coalition big-mouths and the MSM aren’t aware of them!

  9. Doesn’t look like that the bill will pass today. MacDonald is drawing it out. Are libs still working out how they are going to vote and trying to delay any vote until next week.

  10. Good political tactics from ALP – keep the climate issue well and truly stenching up the place as we go into Bradfield and Higgins by-elections. Doctors wives will be lining up to wack the Libs.

  11. [Are libs still working out how they are going to vote and trying to delay any vote until next week.]

    No! It’s clear now that Abbott & Hockey have come to a deal to hold it over to committee!

    It can be indefinitely stalled there as long as the anti mob have the numbers!

  12. Dave

    [This goose in the senate banging on admits he hasn’t even read the bills.

    Got to be a better method of getting legislation through.]

    I think that is the problem with a lot of the more complex issues and politicians who aren’t geniuses. The harder working ones in shadow cabinet are oftne too busy to read anything except an executive summary. The ones on the back bench are often too lazy or just plain don’t comprehend the legislation. They much prefer to be given a two page summary. I think there was a lot of that in the Howard era.

    Its true of the science too. Very few CC skeptics would have actually read the Garnaut Report, except for a few cynical ones looking for gotchas. Most adults know less about science than their kids in high school, and politicians are no different.

  13. Yep, it’s dead(the ETS).
    I hope it’s all worth getting reduced to 30 seats next time, but the sceptics are in safe seats, they won’t go, it’s the moderates who’ll be chopped from the parliament!

  14. Used to give Greens second preference but no more. I’m sick of Brown and Milne being such purists. A flawed ETS is better than no ETS but congrats Greens you’ve got yourselves 0 ETS.

  15. [the sceptics are in safe seats, they won’t go, it’s the moderates who’ll be chopped from the parliament]

    That’s the funniest part…

  16. Dario: My MP Ruddock would be one of the few in a safe seat who supports an ETS.
    I’ll give “Mr Undead” credit for that! 😉

  17. [Used to give Greens second preference but no more. I’m sick of Brown and Milne being such purists. A flawed ETS is better than no ETS but congrats Greens you’ve got yourselves 0 ETS.]

    +1

  18. [as long as the anti mob have the numbers!]

    What part of that don’t you understand?

    Being so pedantic doesn’t cut it now!

    Anti includes Libs, Nats, Greens, Mr X & Fielding.

    Any combination of the above fit the bill as being “as long as the anti mob have the numbers”!

  19. bob1234

    There will be no vote today.

    Why do you think that? All it takes is Labor Senators + 7 Lib Senators to guilotine debate and force a vote.

    You still have it the wrong way round. Check http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/guides/briefno14.htm

    If the Opposition agreed to the time limit – and, until yesterday, both sides agreed they did agree to 3.45pm Friday – then the guillotine is automatic! Unless Abetz & Minchin can convince a majority of the Senate to vote it down, the blade drops at the agreed time.

    I wonder if this frenzied RW Liberal, MSM, shock-jock, mass emailing etc has but one main purpose – to stop today’s vote.

    If the Senate passes the Bill, them it will be L*A*W soon after the Reps rubber-stamp it.

    For CC deniers, today is the last – at least until the Libs regain control of both Houses – that any successful action can be taken against CC legislation. It’s today or never!

  20. [Very few CC skeptics would have actually read the Garnaut Report, except for a few cynical ones looking for gotchas. Most adults know less about science than their kids in high school, and politicians are no different.]

    Not true, venerable Socrates.

    Are you not aware of the Boswell Tide Report?

  21. [If the Opposition agreed to the time limit – and, until yesterday, both sides agreed they did agree to 3.45pm Friday – then the guillotine is automatic!]

    This is completely wrong. Better re-read your standing orders.

  22. [If they have only got through 35 amendments in 3 days it’s going to take weeks to do the other 165!}

    Vera, tell that to Shows On for me please!

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