Essential Research: 55-45

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45 after the previous week’s sharp drop from 59-41. Further questions probe “firmness of vote” (slightly stronger among Coalition voters); satisfaction with Labor and Coalition positions on asylum seekers, climate change, the economy and things in general; relative impact thereof in determining vote choice; and party with which respondents most closely identify (37 per cent Labor, 31 per cent Coalition).

Other news:

• The Mike Rann situation is sufficiently volatile that alternative leadership scenarios are being discussed. Writing in Crikey, Hendrik Gout of Adelaide’s Independent Weekly indicates Treasurer and Deputy Premier Kevin Foley may have ruled himself out with his recent revelations of personal problems: a deal between Left and Right could instead see the job go to Patrick Conlon of the Left.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian probes recent Newspoll data for trends since the start of the Oceanic Viking saga:

In the three Newspolls that followed, Rudd shed a little more skin each time. By last weekend, the score was 56 per cent to 34 per cent. In other words, his net rating—the gap between those who like and loathe him—had almost halved from plus 43 per cent to plus 22 per cent. Scary stuff until you consider the unpublished splits for Labor and Coalition voters. Rudd’s net rating among Labor voters has barely moved. It was plus 84 per cent six weeks ago, now it is plus 81 per cent. All the loathing has been on the Coalition side. His net rating among those who were already voting Liberal or National was minus 13 per cent six weeks ago; now it is minus 38 per cent. Incidentally, Greens voters are also down on Rudd, with his net rating crashing from plus 60 per cent to plus 18 per cent in the same period. This isn’t the first time Rudd has antagonised people other than Labor voters. The same ripple of disrespect was detected after Labor’s first two budgets, in May last year and again this year. He arouses the enemy when he is forced to defend a specific policy.

• A Galaxy poll commissioned by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry finds “nearly six in 10” respondents believe an emissions trading scheme would cost jobs and force up electricity prices, and 54 per cent believe legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Right is expected to throw its weight behind Adam Searle, Blue Mountains mayor and member of the “soft Left”, in the battle to succeed the retiring Bob Debus in his federal seat of Macquarie. Debus and the hard Left want the seat to go to Susan Templeman, with Debus in particular having a long record of conflict with Searle.

• Salusinszky also reports state party secretary and rising Left figure Luke Foley has denied suggestions he might seek to fill a casual vacancy created by the expected departure of the Right’s Henry Tsang from the state upper house later this year. The Right would have the seat go to Shaoquett Moselmane, a Rockdale councillor and Lebanese community leader who has in the past sought to unseat Frank Sartor from Rockdale.

• The NSW Liberals have eyebrow-raisingly preselected Chris Spence, former One Nation candidate and president of its national youth wing, in the highly winnable state seat of The Entrance. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Spence worked for David Oldfield in his time as a state MP, and is currently a staffer to Terrigal MP Chris Hartcher. Spence also took statutory declarations in his capacity as a justice of the peace from Iguanas staff who complained about John Della Bosca and Belinda Neal. He describes his past involvement with One Nation as “a mistake”.

• The ABC further reports local mayor Chris Holstein, who ran unsuccessfully in 2007, has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for Gosford.

• The ABC reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, with Steven Foley and Melanie Matthewson joining the previously discussed John Alexander and Mark Chan.

• The Manly Daily reports Bronwyn Bishop has not been opposed for preselection in Mackellar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,201 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45”

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  1. [and the ALP will use the Liberal chaos to justify the call for a DD. J]
    I STILL don’t think we will have an election before July. Labor would HATE to only have a 2 year 2nd term:
    [After a double dissolution, the fixed terms of the Senate are reset back to the previous July. That means if a double dissolution election is held before July 2010, all Senate terms would be backdated to 1 July 2009, meaning another half-Senate election will have to be held by the first half of 2012. with governments always seeking to avoid separate House and Senate elections, that means a double dissolution election in the first half of 2010 would almost certainly cause another election in the first half of 2012. A double dissolution before July 2010 would effectively give the Rudd government only a two year term. If the government waits until after 1 July 2010 to hold a double dissolution, it would not lose a year from its term.]
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/11/future-election-dates.html#more

  3. [Since there is a Morgan Poll out this thread will probably be cut off soon and replaced. over 4.1 thousand posts must be a record.]
    Typical William applying the guillotine.

  4. [this thread will probably be cut off soon]

    Someone needs to distract William. Putting lots of posts in moderation might work. 🙂

  8. I agree Finns. She is worth more than the lot of them. All this crap she has had to put up with and has answered with extreme decorum.

  9. If the ETS is passed I know it goes back to the Reps on monday to be ticked off but then what?
    Does it have to return to the Senate again ?
    If so could the Libs with new leader still scarper it?

  11. Where is Marie Antoinette?

    [having someone eat her cake?]

    The street scuttle-butt was in the late 18th century, it was her son!

    Media trashing existed way before the modern media emerged.

  21. [Memo to Malyasia/China: Please send more Penny Wongs.]
    Yeah I’m sure Psephos is working on a Senator Migration program to go along with his mercenary, nursing, and Indian doctor schemes

  24. It would be hilarious if Fielding starts supporting all the government amendments on the grounds that the Liberals said they supported them.

  33. Fielding must know by now that Abetz’s count is based on the list of speakers who spoke for and against. Abetz has a point if the published list is accurate.

  36. Did Erica Betz go into the chamber and claim the Liberal partyroom doesn’t support the deal as like a threat to the Liberal senators that still support the partyroom decision?

    Does he want it to appear that the dozen are crossing the floor, when really it is those opposed to Turnbull that cross the floor?

  39. Please! (I’m not streaming) What Bombshell did Erica drop?

    I’d have thought Liberal lying was a national “taken for granted”. Fielding’s that dumb?

  42. [Mr Abbott will launch the request with the party whip today. A spokesman for Mr Turnbull confirmed a party room meeting would be held on Monday or Tuesday.

    The latest development came as Mr Turnbull denied having been asked to step down by his deputy leader, Julie Bishop.

    Leaving his electorate office in Sydney’s eastern suburbs today Mr Turnbull told The Australian Online: “Julie Bishop has not asked me to stand down.”]

    Julie is still in the cupboard!

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331

  43. Fielding is worried about wasting greenhouse gases? How can you waste something that has no value a/c to the Denialists. A bit inconsistent, really.

  45. [Please! (I’m not streaming) What Bombshell did Erica drop?]
    He just went into the Senate and said that the Liberal partyroom does NOT support the government amendments (which is the deal).

  48. [Erica is probably just saying whatever is in the interests of Erica.]

    I’m sure he is. But the list of speakers in the party room has been in newspapers, and this morning he challenged journalists to ring up every one if they think the party room supported passing the CPRS.

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