Essential Research: 55-45

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45 after the previous week’s sharp drop from 59-41. Further questions probe “firmness of vote” (slightly stronger among Coalition voters); satisfaction with Labor and Coalition positions on asylum seekers, climate change, the economy and things in general; relative impact thereof in determining vote choice; and party with which respondents most closely identify (37 per cent Labor, 31 per cent Coalition).

Other news:

• The Mike Rann situation is sufficiently volatile that alternative leadership scenarios are being discussed. Writing in Crikey, Hendrik Gout of Adelaide’s Independent Weekly indicates Treasurer and Deputy Premier Kevin Foley may have ruled himself out with his recent revelations of personal problems: a deal between Left and Right could instead see the job go to Patrick Conlon of the Left.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian probes recent Newspoll data for trends since the start of the Oceanic Viking saga:

In the three Newspolls that followed, Rudd shed a little more skin each time. By last weekend, the score was 56 per cent to 34 per cent. In other words, his net rating—the gap between those who like and loathe him—had almost halved from plus 43 per cent to plus 22 per cent. Scary stuff until you consider the unpublished splits for Labor and Coalition voters. Rudd’s net rating among Labor voters has barely moved. It was plus 84 per cent six weeks ago, now it is plus 81 per cent. All the loathing has been on the Coalition side. His net rating among those who were already voting Liberal or National was minus 13 per cent six weeks ago; now it is minus 38 per cent. Incidentally, Greens voters are also down on Rudd, with his net rating crashing from plus 60 per cent to plus 18 per cent in the same period. This isn’t the first time Rudd has antagonised people other than Labor voters. The same ripple of disrespect was detected after Labor’s first two budgets, in May last year and again this year. He arouses the enemy when he is forced to defend a specific policy.

• A Galaxy poll commissioned by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry finds “nearly six in 10” respondents believe an emissions trading scheme would cost jobs and force up electricity prices, and 54 per cent believe legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Right is expected to throw its weight behind Adam Searle, Blue Mountains mayor and member of the “soft Left”, in the battle to succeed the retiring Bob Debus in his federal seat of Macquarie. Debus and the hard Left want the seat to go to Susan Templeman, with Debus in particular having a long record of conflict with Searle.

• Salusinszky also reports state party secretary and rising Left figure Luke Foley has denied suggestions he might seek to fill a casual vacancy created by the expected departure of the Right’s Henry Tsang from the state upper house later this year. The Right would have the seat go to Shaoquett Moselmane, a Rockdale councillor and Lebanese community leader who has in the past sought to unseat Frank Sartor from Rockdale.

• The NSW Liberals have eyebrow-raisingly preselected Chris Spence, former One Nation candidate and president of its national youth wing, in the highly winnable state seat of The Entrance. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Spence worked for David Oldfield in his time as a state MP, and is currently a staffer to Terrigal MP Chris Hartcher. Spence also took statutory declarations in his capacity as a justice of the peace from Iguanas staff who complained about John Della Bosca and Belinda Neal. He describes his past involvement with One Nation as “a mistake”.

• The ABC further reports local mayor Chris Holstein, who ran unsuccessfully in 2007, has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for Gosford.

• The ABC reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, with Steven Foley and Melanie Matthewson joining the previously discussed John Alexander and Mark Chan.

• The Manly Daily reports Bronwyn Bishop has not been opposed for preselection in Mackellar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,201 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45”

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  5. [If you think there will be a global ETS with binding CO2 reduction targets ]

    Diog, keep up to date old son. Nobody is talking about “binding” targets anymore. Hopinghogen will set the framework and roadmap to reach that binding targets to be done during 2010.

  7. There’s going to be some very frowny faces on Monday if the ETS gets up this afternoon. Hockey would be nuts to take over the leadership if the ETS passes. He’ll be blamed for it passing and the election defeat.

  9. A couple of follow ons from last night.

    Boerwar we got 7mls in the end.

    Gus, I went down to the river and the beach, and had a good look around, and I have to admit, the Boswell Tide Report is correct – everything all looks the same. I couldn’t notice anything different.

    Those IPCC reports are bunkum, the Boswell Tide Report is the standard now.

  11. [There’s going to be some very frowny faces on Monday if the ETS gets up this afternoon. ]
    I hope the government guillotine this farce in an hour and a half.

    The opposition Senators are just filibustering. Only the Greens and Xenophon are asking decent questions. Fielding is just trolling the Liberals about trying to back out of the deal.

  12. Someone a page or so ago responded to a call for Penny to contest Wentworth with this:
    “Stop trying to steal S.A.’s best Senator.”

    She is SA’s #2 ALP Senator.

    We can offer the #1 senator, Don Farrell, in her place.
    You can have him.

  17. This is not fair. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman being bullied by a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos. 👿

  20. [This is not fair. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman being bullied by a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos.]

    She can handle it 😉

  24. [Ugh, Family First can have him.]
    Wong should just talk about the amendments and move them and watch the Liberals scatter when they divide.

  28. Eratosthanes @ 4054,
    [You are not familiar enough with the process.]

    Seems like everyone else is! This must happen every week! Somehow or other I seem to have missed it!

    And how anyone can compare “this” with previous laboured debates in the Senate when the circumstances are totally different ( how often have the Libs split like this?)

    “No one” knows what the anti-ETS crew are plotting with the pro mob right at this very moment and “no one” knows what will transpire at 3.45 because “anything” can happen and probably will.

    The Pro crowd “may” have the numbers and they “may” not.

    We will just have to wait and see, won’t we? One hour, 45 minutes left! ‘-)

  31. Let me repeat:

    [This is not fair. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman being bullied by a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos.]

  33. Wong is starting to build to the motion to have a 3rd reading without further debate. My guess is that her advice coming from those outside is that she has at least 7 Lib senators.

    This is truly extraordinary!

  34. [It looks like the CPRS will pass with unacceptable amendments thanks to WA.]
    Do those W.A. Senators have the numbers to get their amendments through?

  37. Dario

    Wasting time is irrelevant today. Either the guillotine is applied and we have a vote, or it isn’t and we come back after the Liberals sort out their leadership wranglings.

    The guillotine will be applied. If Senators don’t want to shut up, they can then move continuance. Only if the continuance motion is successful – and with the ALP, Greens & c12 Liberals voting against it, it won’t be – then the whole package is put without further debate. There’ll be a division. That’s it. Merry Christmas everyone!

    Then the bill goes back to the Reps, where the ALP can’t lose & will certainly apply the closure “I move that the motion be put”. No debate. Happy Christmas everyone. Especially those with planes to catch & functions to attend!

    Everything else you hear is spin, a con job, hot air, whatever.

    Minchin & Abetz don’t control the Senate, the President of the Senate (John Hogg) does & I can’t see Hoggy letting Minchin & Abetz get away with anything.

  38. [Wong is starting to build to the motion to have a 3rd reading without further debate. ]
    I hope so.
    [This is truly extraordinary!]
    Totally.

    And if it goes through, the Government can say it had the bipartisan support of the Liberals! 😀

  41. Let me repeat:

    This is very just. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman beating the shit out of a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos.

  42. [Then the bill goes back to the Reps, where the ALP can’t lose & will certainly apply the closure “I move that the motion be put”.]
    I kind of hope there will be a short debate. It will be Gillard versus . Gillard will be thanking the sensi-Liberals for doing what is right for the nation while Mr/s Whoever will be explaining that the Liberals in the senate didn’t actually mean to do what they did.

  44. Nobody would want to get themselves ejected at this particular point in history. Their whips would be giving them the mother of all floggings if….

  45. ShowsOn, I don’t know, except it wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals used that as a last-minute maneuver to scuttle the CPRS and the ALP will use the Liberal chaos to justify the call for a DD. Just speculation..

  46. I have seen mentioned a number of times by Green supporters on this site that come the revaluation (they mean a double dissolution election (DD)) that somehow all problems over the CPRS will be solved. The reason for this is that they believe that offer such an election they (the Greens) will have the balance of power in the Senate.

    I find this hard to understand the confidence displayed by the Greens in this argument

    Firstly, there is no guarantee that there will be a DD election. From some comments (I think from Mr A Green) I believe that Labor will get a better electoral result from a half-senate election. A full senate election gives smaller parties and independents a greater chance of attaining a quota.

    After any election there are a number of possibilities.
    1) the Government has a majority
    2) the Lib/Nats have a majority
    3) the Greens have the Balance of power by themselves
    4) the Greens together with other minor parties and independents have the balance of power

    So assuming that we end up with the Greens having the BOP and the Larbor Party still in occupies the Treasury Benches what makes The Grens think that the labor Government will move far enough toward their position form the greens to support an amended CPRS.

    If I understand the Greens argument they have 2 basic concerns. Firstly, the “gateway targets” are (miles) too low and secondly that “polluters” are getting free certificated and grants.

    What makes the Greens think that the Government would abandon these policy decisions?

    What we would end up with is a situation like we have today with the only Party willing to implement a CPRS is the Labor Party but it will not have the numbers to get it through the Senate.

    Eventually we may have a DD election but even then what makes the Greens think that the Labor Government subsequent to the joint sitting would consider Green amendments to the CPRS that was passed at that joint sitting.

    It would appear that the Greens are quite prepared to delay the introduction of a CPRS indefinitely unless they get their way.

    This is a very strange way for a party the professes to put the environment first to behave.

    It is not too difficult to see that in 2050 we could still be sitting around in our wheelchairs talking about the introduction of a CPRS.

  48. Since there is a Morgan Poll out this thread will probably be cut off soon and replaced. over 4.1 thousand posts must be a record.

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