Essential Research: 55-45

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45 after the previous week’s sharp drop from 59-41. Further questions probe “firmness of vote” (slightly stronger among Coalition voters); satisfaction with Labor and Coalition positions on asylum seekers, climate change, the economy and things in general; relative impact thereof in determining vote choice; and party with which respondents most closely identify (37 per cent Labor, 31 per cent Coalition).

Other news:

• The Mike Rann situation is sufficiently volatile that alternative leadership scenarios are being discussed. Writing in Crikey, Hendrik Gout of Adelaide’s Independent Weekly indicates Treasurer and Deputy Premier Kevin Foley may have ruled himself out with his recent revelations of personal problems: a deal between Left and Right could instead see the job go to Patrick Conlon of the Left.

George Megalogenis of The Australian probes recent Newspoll data for trends since the start of the Oceanic Viking saga:

In the three Newspolls that followed, Rudd shed a little more skin each time. By last weekend, the score was 56 per cent to 34 per cent. In other words, his net rating—the gap between those who like and loathe him—had almost halved from plus 43 per cent to plus 22 per cent. Scary stuff until you consider the unpublished splits for Labor and Coalition voters. Rudd’s net rating among Labor voters has barely moved. It was plus 84 per cent six weeks ago, now it is plus 81 per cent. All the loathing has been on the Coalition side. His net rating among those who were already voting Liberal or National was minus 13 per cent six weeks ago; now it is minus 38 per cent. Incidentally, Greens voters are also down on Rudd, with his net rating crashing from plus 60 per cent to plus 18 per cent in the same period. This isn’t the first time Rudd has antagonised people other than Labor voters. The same ripple of disrespect was detected after Labor’s first two budgets, in May last year and again this year. He arouses the enemy when he is forced to defend a specific policy.

• A Galaxy poll commissioned by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry finds “nearly six in 10” respondents believe an emissions trading scheme would cost jobs and force up electricity prices, and 54 per cent believe legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Right is expected to throw its weight behind Adam Searle, Blue Mountains mayor and member of the “soft Left”, in the battle to succeed the retiring Bob Debus in his federal seat of Macquarie. Debus and the hard Left want the seat to go to Susan Templeman, with Debus in particular having a long record of conflict with Searle.

• Salusinszky also reports state party secretary and rising Left figure Luke Foley has denied suggestions he might seek to fill a casual vacancy created by the expected departure of the Right’s Henry Tsang from the state upper house later this year. The Right would have the seat go to Shaoquett Moselmane, a Rockdale councillor and Lebanese community leader who has in the past sought to unseat Frank Sartor from Rockdale.

• The NSW Liberals have eyebrow-raisingly preselected Chris Spence, former One Nation candidate and president of its national youth wing, in the highly winnable state seat of The Entrance. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Spence worked for David Oldfield in his time as a state MP, and is currently a staffer to Terrigal MP Chris Hartcher. Spence also took statutory declarations in his capacity as a justice of the peace from Iguanas staff who complained about John Della Bosca and Belinda Neal. He describes his past involvement with One Nation as “a mistake”.

• The ABC further reports local mayor Chris Holstein, who ran unsuccessfully in 2007, has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for Gosford.

• The ABC reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, with Steven Foley and Melanie Matthewson joining the previously discussed John Alexander and Mark Chan.

• The Manly Daily reports Bronwyn Bishop has not been opposed for preselection in Mackellar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,201 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45”

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  1. [I heard Ms Chantelois on ABC this am saying that she now wants all this to stop to protect her family.]
    She should have thought of that before accepting the 100k.

  2. [Bolt was on radio this morning making a big deal about the e-mails.]
    There is no hope for people who think “I found this email, therefore global warming isn’t happening” is a compelling argument.

  3. [90% certainty is not enough regarding the reasons for the warming of the planet.]

    I’d like to know how the IPCC came up with that figure.

  4. I did have the misfortune to listen to Hugh Rimington on Steve Price yesterday acting like a spokesman for the Coalition, which is what you’d characterise most of the Canberra press gallery!

  5. OzPolT – that article explains a lot. I listen to Landline on ABC and the view of many farmers is the exact opposite of Barnaby Joyce. Joyce is probably looking for the rural workers/pensioner vote to boost National party seats against the Libs. He was talking to Price on radio this morning and playing up the ‘poor pensioner having to pay more for everything’ side of the ETS.

    Price is hilarious – he can’t make up his mind whether he’s a sceptic or believer. Plays both sides depending on who he’s talking to at the time. But he’s got his listeners going and they ring up to tell him that Barnaby is King of the World!!

  6. The ETS may not have the desired affect on CC, but as a political tool it has been a middle stumping bowl from the ALP. Either it gets passed, but severly splits the coalition, has them spewing different messages, talking of leadership challenges, has the Nationals breaking off- and most importantly mixed messages to the electorate, or it doesn’t get passed and is a DD trigger.
    Either way they are toast at the next election. Chalk up 10 more for the ALP, and a few more in the senate

  7. Price desperately wants to be the next John Laws, a shame for him that Ray Hadley regularly spanks him in the ratings. 😆
    I think he’s on the right wing side of politics, and his wife works for Hockey too.

  8. [Based on what Tim Flannery said in last nights LL, the 90% figure came from computer modelling.]

    And how was that model tested, considering that we are supposedly now in uncharted territory in the earth’s climate? It’s easy to produce a model that correctly predicts the recent past from further past that. You just keep mucking around with it until it produces what you want. The real test is whether it predicts the future. That means we won’t know whether the model works for a few more decades.

  9. [Based on what Tim Flannery said in last nights LL, the 90% figure came from computer modelling.]
    No. He made that comment regarding recent years that are cooler relative to 1998.

    The confidence of the conclusion is most likely a reflection of potential inaccuracies of the data.

  10. [That means we won’t know whether the model works for a few more decades.]
    By then if we don’t do something about climate change in the we will be stuffed, facing dramatic climate variance with massive costs to the world economy.

  11. [Just some of the questions that rival TV shows will be asking and researching. For her sake she had better have lived the life of a nun – up to her ‘indiscretion’. From what I’ve seen so far she looks and sounds like a fantasist.]

    Ahhh yes… attack the womans credibility to try and shut her up eh?

    Lets not forget that the Labor Party insiders were worried about “revealations” that would come out after the assault of Mike Rann with a magazine by the ex-husband. Now how did these insiders know what would be said months later by the woman? Did they have a crystal ball?

    Come on people, put the pieces together already.

  12. [The official refused to be drawn on specific numbers but the announcement was expected to be in line with legislation being debated in the US Senate that envisages a reduction of up to 20 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020.]
    The U.S. House bill is proposing a cut of 17% the Senate bill is proposing a cut of 20%.

    Obama may say 15% in order to ensure that he can get that figure through congress. He certainly won’t say more than 20%.

  13. [Ahhh yes… attack the womans credibility to try and shut her up eh?]
    What? She has been on National TV and will be on every episode of Today Tonight this week. How the hell does that constitute shutting her up?

  14. [She should have thought of that before accepting the 100k.]

    The Age this morning is saying it was more like K$70. FFrom Seven’s point of viewCheap at twice the price so long as she/they get caught out.

  15. Sticky keyboard.

    Should have said:

    The Age this morning is saying it was more like K$70. From Seven’s point of view it would have been cheap at twice the price so long as she/they don’t get caught out.

  16. [By then if we don’t do something about climate change in the we will be stuffed, facing dramatic climate variance with massive costs to the world economy.]

    Whether to take action is an entirely different matter from whether the model can be trusted.

  17. [The Age this morning is saying it was more like K$70. From Seven’s point of view it would have been cheap at twice the price so long as she/they don’t get caught out.]

    Other sources were saying $200k. They’re all guessing.

  18. [Whether to take action is an entirely different matter from whether the model can be trusted.]
    WOW! Look at the massive scientific insight on display!
    [Other sources were saying $200k. They’re all guessing.]
    Mark Riley (the reporter who did the Sunday Night interview) said on ABC Adelaide that it was “not a six figure sum” for both the 7 and New Idea deal.

  19. [Does this mean that Shadow cabinet must vote as a bloc in the party room? Or are they still free agents?]
    In theory they are all meant to support the shadow cabinet position. But joint party room meetings aren’t theory.

  20. [WOW! Look at the massive scientific insight on display!]

    Well, you were the one who apparently confused the two. I talked about the model and you responded on an entirely different subject.

  21. [Ahhh yes… attack the womans credibility to try and shut her up eh?]
    Too late to shut her up. Now it’s a case of proving her wrong. A valid path to take I would have thought.

  22. [Well, you were the one who apparently confused the two. I talked about the model and you responded on an entirely different subject.]
    LOL! Your knowledge of science is severely limited, no one takes anything you write on the topic seriously.

  23. [LOL! Your knowledge of science is severely limited, no one takes anything you write on the topic seriously.]

    This is from someone who said that Isaac Newton was wrong with no qualification.

  24. ShowsON

    I think there is no point debating Triton, and I don’t do so any more. He is completely disingenous and will never admit he is wrong. He uses a bunch of what are becoming standard tactics for denialists as though he gets them on an email list.

    As for proof of the consequences of CC, here is a simple piece of logic that I think proves the point. There is physical evidence that more CO2 in the atmosphere makes the planet hotter. We are already have a higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere than at any time in the past 15 million years:
    http://www.physorg.com/news174234562.html

    The last time Greenland was ice free was 3 million years ago. The CO2 concentration then was about 350ppm; we now have 387ppm and rising 1-2ppm per year. We don’t need computer projections. We are already in trouble.

  25. [The ETS may not have the desired affect on CC, but as a political tool it has been a middle stumping bowl from the ALP.]

    Whether or not an ETS bill approved by the Coalition would have any affect on CC, another strictly political advantage for the ALP might stem from possible parallels with the deal Howard had to make with the Democrats for passage of his GST. Without those exemptions negotiated by Meg Lees, a greater backlash during the implementation of the GST might have cost the Coalition dearly.

    Although the GST Deal destroyed Meg Lees and eventually her party, Howard and Costello got a regressive tax passed in a form appearing to be “moderate” as opposed to the appearance of the “extreme” WorkChoices when Coalition’s Senate majority meant there was no ameliorating its more controversial provisions.

  26. [Mark Riley (the reporter who did the Sunday Night interview) said on ABC Adelaide that it was “not a six figure sum” for both the 7 and New Idea deal.]

    Sorry, but I don’t believe anything he says

  27. [This is from someone who said that Isaac Newton was wrong with no qualification.]
    That’s true. He was very close to being right, but in science close isn’t good enough if you have another theory that is better.

    If you knew anything about science you would understand that.

  28. [I think there is no point debating Triton, and I don’t do so any more. He is completely disingenous and will never admit he is wrong.]
    Now here is something that is a fact.

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