Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:
Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.
Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.
My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:
• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.
• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.
• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.
• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.
• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.
[a. rich should not get better treatment
b. people smuggler are scums
c. people should never have to risk their lives in boats not seaworthy]
We agree dovif on the above points.
The points I disagree with you on are the cause and the solution of the boat people arriving at our shores.
[Funny how the media have boats to sit alongside the OV for weeks publishing messages from AS but they never knew about any of those boats that Howie was sending to Indonesia?]
It’s called being complicit
[Malcolm’s “policy” is another diversion, an excuse for his ABC and Rupe’s stooges to keep the asylum seekers on the front page.]
And it’s newspolling this weekend, isn’t it?
Yawn. Listen to ABC local radio. Among the usual trivia, politics is discussed at the same time every day. Same issue every day. Same issue dominates ABC news everyday for the past 4 weeks. same issue dominates the front page of what is laughingly referred to as’news’ papers. Same issue dominates Poll Bludger.
Yet it is a fifth rate issue at best. WTF is going on. Has everyone gone insane?
[Yet it is a fifth rate issue at best. WTF is going on. Has everyone gone insane?]
Because they are trying to get Rudd. That isn’t exactly a new phenomonon…
[Yet it is a fifth rate issue at best. WTF is going on.]
Perhaps the media don’t agree with you that it’s a ‘fifth rate issue at best’.
entre nous 1547
well put.
I bet malcolm and his media mugs hate the coverage Kev and Therese are getting on their OS trip, slum kids, sleeping with the diggers (Kev that is not Therese!) Kev patting the lost dog, mending relationships in India and next Rudd will be rubbing shoulders with Obama and co at Apec.
No wonder Malcolm is releasing a policy, all the OV hype doesn’t seem to be working for him despite the blanket coverage, he want’s some attention.
Look at moi! he screams while stamping his wittle foot, “I’m better than Rudd. I should be PM, why won’t anyone look at moi?” 😛
[And it’s newspolling this weekend, isn’t it?]
Yep. The old bootsrap. News brings out an outlier, it gets beaten up. They play it further with an AS poll and no voting intention to correct the outlier, it gets beaten up further. All other polls that show no movement are next to ignored. So now News will be hoping that with the beatups they’ve been able to move the electorate down to meet their original outlier and vindicate it. Pretty appalling really, but that’s News for you.
What an edifying sight – the Oppostion clawing away at what is really a populist and peripheral issue trying to get some recognition and traction.
Sad, really.
[Perhaps the media don’t agree with you that it’s a ‘fifth rate issue at best’.]
It mainly seems to be the ABC and right wing radio/rags that see this as more than that. I wonder why?
I’m interested to know why the Coalition thinks reinstating temporary protection visas will ‘stop the boats’?
Also this line in the ABC story is written very sloppily:
[Since the Government scrapped the visas and the Coalition’s Pacific Solution there has been a spike in boat arrivals and the Christmas Island detention centre is almost full.]
This could be read to imply the ‘spike in boat arrivals’ is due to the scrapping of TPVs and the pacific solution, which is surely a matter of opinion rather than fact. I suppose you could argue it is factually correct, but it can’t be argued for certain that there is a causal link.
Diogenes
The transcript is now up on the 7.30 report of Kerry and Evans.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2009/s2741381.htm
What you should do is read it and you can listen to it as well.
When you have done come back and tell me wher he says they will jump queues to come to australia if they leave the ship.
Here is a sample;
[This could be read to imply the ’spike in boat arrivals’ is due to the scrapping of TPVs and the pacific solution, which is surely a matter of opinion rather than fact. I suppose you could argue it is factually correct, but it can’t be argued for certain that there is a causal link.]
Remember, Janet and co were only put on the ABC board to give investment advice
The thing is, most people with only a passing interest in politics (that includes AS) will take note while watching 7, 9 or 10 news tonight that asylum seekers are leaving the OV and that will be the end of the story in most minds.
[It mainly seems to be the ABC and right wing radio/rags that see this as more than that. I wonder why?]
Well to be honest that is a very significant proportion of the media contingent in Australia. We are hardly spoiled for choice. Is your argument that since local newspapers and small country radio networks aren’t covering it in as much detail that it can’t possibly be a matter of public interest?
1564 – Spot on Vera.
Diogenes while you are at it can you help me by listing the 78 survivors by name and where they have been for the last 5-10 years, whether they have been processed by the UNHCR, compared to all the other AS purportedly in indonesia?
Malcolm’s new policy
A safe Haven Visa
Instead of Permanent Residency Visa. to be reassessed after 3 yrs
10 news reporting
[Well to be honest that is a very significant proportion of the media contingent in Australia. We are hardly spoiled for choice. Is your argument that since local newspapers and small country radio networks aren’t covering it in as much detail that it can’t possibly be a matter of public interest?]
No, my point is that TV stations such as 7, 9, 10 and SBS usually have the OV story well down the list, whereas the ABC usually has it as their first story. Must all just be a funny coincidence, eh?
Aparently malcolm did a presser and his AS policy is a 4 point plan
10 news only mentioned the one, others must not have been worth the trouble to read 😉
A new name. Can someone explain to me why such a visa would be a deterrent to anyone getting on a boat and making their way over here.
Yes, the only aspect of this whole unedifying spectacle that is of any interest is the extent to which News Ltd and the ABC will go to bring Rudd down to earth as they would term it.
At a time when quite a few important issues such as the survival of the planet are maybe more important than 78 asylum seekers, we are distracted by this second rate diversion concocted with the purpose of subverting democracy.
forget all the libs BS
Time for rudd to call a royal commission into “boat people arrivals 2000-2009”
betcha a few fibs will seek asylum in switzerland
😉
gary, the only thing reassessing after 3 yrs would do is cause uncertainty and worry to the AS so they weren’t able to get on and start a new life.
I bet close to 100% would be given permanent residency after the 3 yrs anyway.
A Turnbull stunt because labor have been giving him heaps about his lack of any policies.
Can’t see how it would be popular to the redneck vote, they don’t want AS goming here at all.
[TV stations such as 7, 9, 10 and SBS usually have the OV story well down the list, whereas the ABC usually has it as their first story]
The major story on ABC Online right now – asylum seekers.
[No, my point is that TV stations such as 7, 9, 10 and SBS usually have the OV story well down the list, whereas the ABC usually has it as their first story. Must all just be a funny coincidence, eh?]
Given 7,9 and 10 usually have pointless guff such as “Koala has new baby” or “Britney’s lip synching disaster” as their top story this is hardly a good indication of what is a genuine matter of public interest.
I watch the ABC news every night and don’t agree there is bias there. Personally I think the story is one of genuine public interest and imagine the Government thinks the situations is fairly important as well.
I do think the matter hasn’t been handled the best but don’t think it’s indicative of a broader problem in immigration/asylum seeker policy. Most telling in this is that the Opposition aren’t able to explain exactly how their extremely sketchy policy (i.e. reinstatement of TPV’s and the pacific solution) will decrease the amount of boat arrivals. Another thing to consider is that the Liberals are likely to face some difficulty in enacting that policy in any case as there’d be significant numbers of Liberal politicians who would be unable to support it this time around.
Coalition could be making a big mistake on this one. They ‘back flip’ by reverting to a ‘tougher stance’ on asylum issues because they claim the new policy didn’t work. Whose to say that if elected they wont ‘back flip’ by reverting to a tougher stance on workers because they claim the new policy ie WorkChoices didn’t work. Election line – you can’t trust the Coalition to not come down hard if they get half a chance.
ie ‘removing’ Workchoices
[Given 7,9 and 10 usually have pointless guff such as “Koala has new baby” or “Britney’s lip synching disaster” as their top story this is hardly a good indication of what is a genuine matter of public interest.]
That doesn’t explain SBS
[The major story on ABC Online right now – asylum seekers]
I’m shocked
1576 ltep – I’d be very surprised if the vast majority of people didn’t get their news from the free to air news services. Most people don’t care about politics and take no notice of it. Just watch any quiz program that has a basic political question on it and see how many know the answer.
[I watch the ABC news every night and don’t agree there is bias there. Personally I think the story is one of genuine public interest and imagine the Government thinks the situations is fairly important as well.]
More important than climate change? Right.
[A new name. Can someone explain to me why such a visa would be a deterrent to anyone getting on a boat and making their way over here.]
Well that is the Coalition’s meta-policy: Just rename their old policies. Beats do real work…
Shows
Some extemely interesting developments re fusion
[In the quest to produce nuclear fusion energy, researchers from the DIII-D National Fusion Facility have recently confirmed long-standing theoretical predictions that performance, efficiency and reliability are simultaneously obtained in tokamaks, the leading magnetic confinement fusion device, operating at their performance limits. Experiments designed to test these predictions have successfully demonstrated the interaction of these conditions.]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091102103327.htm
Now this I could live with
😉
Could you imajine howard or turnbull acting this way
[Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has taken responsibility for the Federal Government’s failure to stop attacks on Indian students in Australia.
“What I would say as Prime Minister of Australia is, I accept responsibility for the proper enforcement of Australian laws within our country,” Mr Rudd said.
“I do so conjointly with the state governments of Australia who run the criminal justice system of our country by and large. We are responsible for law and order in the country. As Prime Minister of Australia I am responsible to the international community.
“I accept responsibility for the good things and bad things that happen in our country.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/13/2741504.htm
[Some extemely interesting developments re fusion ]
Sounds like it is still a very, very long way off
Interestingly, when the Liberalgate forged email affair had been dominating the news for a couple of weeks (about half the time that this AS “crisis” has so far had blanket coverage), the Liberals planted some Young Liberals in a Q&A audience who stood up to make very voluble statements that they were sick and tired of hearing about it. To which the other plants in the audience cheered and applauded ostentatiously.
Next morning it was written up across the media that the public were OVER hearing about Turnbull, Grech and the forged email – and the attention given to the scandal melted away within hours, or days at the most.
A reverse bootstrapper, you might call it.
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=4152
Yes, I went there. The things I do for you guys:
[1.We will once again secure our borders. Our aim is to stamp out people smuggling and effectively deter unauthorised arrivals while at the same time treating refugees compassionately in accordance with our obligations under the UN Convention on Refugees.]
So far, exactly the same as the government.
[2.All processing offshore. We will ensure that unauthorised arrivals seeking asylum are intercepted and processed offshore at Christmas Island, not on the Australian mainland as Mr Rudd is preparing to do.]
Whatty? Apart from the last sentence, which is something I’ve not heard of before (and CI being part of Aus, can’t see the trauma anyway) isn’t this government policy?
[3.A non-permanent visa for unauthorised arrivals. We will introduce a non-permanent visa for asylum seekers who arrive without authorisation. Asylum seekers who arrive without authorisation will be granted this safe haven visa rather than Labor’s permanent residency. It will be reassessed after a specific period not longer than three years, and if they are found to be in need of continued protection they will then be eligible for permanent residency. If they are found not to be in need of such protection, they will be returned to their country of origin.]
OK, TPVs then. The important questions – will they be eligible to work in Australia during this period? Will the normal benefits available to Australians who live here be extended to these people? – are not answered.
[4.A compassionate and fair refugee and humanitarian program. A Turnbull Government will maintain Australia’s substantial humanitarian program for refugees who come to Australia through legitimate processes. This intake will always favour those most in need.]
Again, the same as the government’s.
No explanation about how this would have helped deal with the present situation.
No new ideas but just echoing current policy, apart from the reintroduction of TPVs under a new name (but noone will see through that).
The Libs are going to save us all from the invading hordes!!!
[Sounds like it is still a very, very long way off]
True dario,but the exciting thing is that we have breached the theoretical and are now ready to broach the practical side of plasma.
The implications are huge,not just for nuclear,but for energy conservation and generation everywhere.
[After decades of effort to improve the behavior and output of fusion plasmas, scientists are discovering that nature may actually be so kind as to simultaneously allow high performance (lots of electricity!), optimal efficiency (affordable!), and high reliability (the electrical outlet will always work!) in the design of future power plants]
Vera, this is how ‘The Age’ covered Rudd’s India visit.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/pm-sidesteps-apology-on-violence-against-indians-20091113-ict4.htm
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
[More important than climate change?]
When did I say that? Climate change of course is a matter of public importance. The ABC has demonstrated this by their bothering to produce and air that Four Corners piece on the Coalition’s crazy climate skepticism. I can’t imagine a commercial network would have filmed or aired it.
[ ltep – I’d be very surprised if the vast majority of people didn’t get their news from the free to air news services. Most people don’t care about politics and take no notice of it.]
This is completely irrelevant. I don’t care whether other people care about politics or not. It doesn’t effect whether I think a particular story is of public importance or not.
zoomster the Brave
thanks for going on that dangerous mission for PB 😀
No wonder 10 didn’t mention the othe 3 points, they aren’t points at all, just rudd policy
So apart from the TPVs the Libs have pinched the Govt.’s policy. Altho the ‘substantial humanitarian program’ needs to be spelt out.
Kev’s got plenty of ammunition for QT next week.
Gary
Thanks Gomer 😉
the link didn’t work, sent me to The Age though so I’ll find it myselg
[It doesn’t effect whether I think a particular story is of public importance or not.]
The people will decide whether it is of public importance or not surely. If they don’t find it important, important it won’t be.
Would somebody put that miserable old Peter Walsh back in his box, pleeeaassee.
[When did I say that? Climate change of course is a matter of public importance. The ABC has demonstrated this by their bothering to produce and air that Four Corners piece on the Coalition’s crazy climate skepticism. I can’t imagine a commercial network would have filmed or aired it.]
And yet the OV usually comes well before any CC stories, if there are any
The ‘substantial humanitarian program’ is just continuing what we have now.
[And yet the OV usually comes well before any CC stories,]
What CC stories are there at the moment? There are usually stories of some sort on the ongoing negotiations but there’s really very little to discuss there.
[The people will decide whether it is of public importance or not surely. If they don’t find it important, important it won’t be.]
I don’t agree with this statement at all. It could be used to sweep away the need to do anything as people don’t generally care about anything unless it directly affects them. Rights for GLBTQIQ people? Not important, people don’t care!
If we used the ‘if people aren’t interested don’t report’ criteria we wouldn’t have any political news.