Roy Morgan has simultaneously unloaded two sets of polling figures, as it does from time to time. The regular fortnightly face-to-face poll, conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 1684, has Labor’s lead nudging up to 60-40 compared with 59.5-40.5 at the previous such poll. Both major parties are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote Labor to 49.5 per cent, the Coalition to 34 per cent while the Greens are up from 7.5 per cent to 9 per cent. There is also a phone poll of 695 respondents conducted mid-week, which finds a slight majority favouring maintaining a balanced budget over vaguely defined alternative economic objectives. The poll has Labor’s lead on voting intention at 58-42 on two-party preferred and 46.5-37 on the primary vote. The Greens are on 10.5 per cent.
Plenty happening on the electoral front, not least the finalisation of the federal redistribution for Queensland. This offers a few surprises, and may be a rare occasion where a major party’s submission has actually had an effect. Two changes in particular were broadly in line with the wishes of the Liberal National Party, which marshalled a considerable weight of media commentary to argue that the Coalition had been hard done by. As always, Antony Green has crunched the numbers: all estimated margins quoted herein are his.
Most interestingly, the changes to Dickson that sent Peter Dutton scurrying for refuge have been partly reversed. As the LNP submission requested, the electorate has recovered the rural area along Dayboro Road and Woodford Road that it was set to lose to Longman. However, only a small concession was made to the LNP’s request that the troublesome Kallangur area be kept out of the electorate. The electoral impact is accordingly slight, clipping the notional Labor margin from 1.3 per cent to 1.0 per cent. Peter Dutton is nonetheless sufficiently encouraged that he’s indicating he might yet stand and fight or less charitably, he’s found a pretext to get out of the corner he had backed himself into. Labor has received a corresponding boost in its marginal seat of Longman, where Jon Sullivan’s margin has been cut from 3.6 per cent at the election to 1.7 per cent, instead of the originally proposed 1.4 per cent.
Major changes to Petrie and Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley have largely been reversed. It had been proposed to eliminate Petrie’s southern dog-leg by adding coastal areas from Shorncliffe and Deagon north to Brighton from Lilley, which would be compensated with Petrie’s southern leg of suburbs from Carseldine south to Stafford Heights. The revised boundaries have eliminated the former transfer and limited the latter to south of Bridgeman Downs. Where the original proposal gave Labor equally comfortable margins in both, the revision gives Wayne Swan 8.8 per cent while reducing Yvette D’Ath to an uncomfortable 4.2 per cent. Retaining Shorncliffe, Deagon and Brighton in Lilley had been advocated in the LNP submission. Almost-local observer Possum concurs, saying the revised boundaries better serve local communities of interest.
South of Brisbane and inland of the Gold Coast, changes have been made to the boundary between Forde and the new electorate of Wright, with a view to consolidating the rural identity of the latter. Forde gains suburban Boronia Heights and loses an area of hinterland further south, extending from suburban Logan Village to rural Jimboomba. Labor’s margin in Forde has increased from 2.4 per cent to 3.4 per cent, and the Coalition’s in Wright is up from 3.8 per cent to 4.8 per cent.
Little remains of a proposed northward shift of the boundary between Kennedy and Leichhardt from the Mitchell River to the limits of Tablelands Regional council. Kennedy will now only gain an area around Mount Molloy, 150 kilometres north-west of Cairns. Its boundary with Dawson has also been tidied through the expansion of a transfer from Dawson south of Townsville, aligning it with the Burdekin River. None of the three seats’ margins has changed.
Moreton gains a park and golf course from Oxley in the west and loses part of Underwood to Rankin in the south-east, with negligible impact on their margins.
Maranoa has gained the area around Wandoan from Flynn, making the boundary conform with Western Downs Regional Council. This boosts Labor’s margin in Flynn from 2.0 per cent to 2.3 per cent, compared with 0.2 per cent at the election.
Three minor adjustments have been made to the boundary between the safe Liberal Sunshine Coast seats of Fisher and Fairfax, allowing the entirety of Montville to remain in Fisher.
Ryan has taken a sliver of inner city Toowong from Brisbane.
Other news:
The Financial Review’s Mark Skulley reported on Wednesday that the federal government was moving quickly to get its electoral reform package into shape. Labor is said to be offering a deal: if the Liberals drop their opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations (which the Coalition and Steve Fielding voted down in March), the government will include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says the New South Wales branch of the ALP alone receives $1.3 million in revenue a year from the fees, which unions must pay to send delegates to party conferences. According to Skulley, many union leaders fear a Rudd plot to Blairise the party by weakening union ties, with Coorey naming the ACTU and Victorian unions as most hostile. It is further reported that the parties propose to cover the foregone revenue by hiking the rate of public funding. VexNews understands that an increase from $2.24 per vote to $10 is on the cards, potentially increasing the total payout from $49 million to $200 million. The site says Westpac currently has a formal claim over Labor’s public funding payout after the next election, as the party is currently $8 million in debt. The Liberals are said to be keen because they’re having understandable trouble raising funds at the moment. A further amendment proposes to restrict political advertising by third parties. As well as being stimulating politically, some of these moves might be difficult constitutionally.
A proposed referendum on reform to the South Australian Legislative Council has been voted down in said chamber. The referendum would have been an all-or-nothing vote to change terms from a staggered eight years to an unstaggered four, reduce its membership from 22 to 16, allow a deliberative rather than a casting vote for the President and establish a double dissolution mechanism to resolve deadlocks. Another bill amending the Electoral Act has been passed, although it will not take effect until after the March election. A number of its measures bring the state act into line with the Commonwealth Electoral Act: party names like Liberals for Forests have been banned, provisions have been made for enrolment of homeless voters, and MPs will be able to access constituents’ dates of birth on the electoral roll (brace yourselves for presumptuous birthday greetings in the mail). The number of members required of a registered party has been increased from 150 to 200: if you’re wondering why they bothered, the idea was to hike it to 500 to make life difficult for the putative Save the Royal Adelaide Hospital party, but the government agreed to a half-measure that wouldn’t threaten the Nationals. Misleading advertising has also been introduced as grounds for declaring a result void if on the balance of probabilities it affected the result. The Council voted down attempts to ban corflute advertising on road sides and overturn the state’s unique requirement that how-to-vote cards be displayed in each polling compartment.
Deborah Morris of the Hastings Leader reports Helen Constas, chief executive of the Peninsula Community Legal Centre, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for the south-eastern Melbourne federal seat of Dunkley, where Liberal member Bruce Billson’s margin was cut from 9.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent at the 2007 election. Constas was said to have had a convincing win in the local ballot. UPDATE: Andrew Crook of Crikey details Constas’s preselection as a win for the left born of disunity between the Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy forces of the Right; Right faction sources respond at VexNews.
The ABC reports that Nationals members in the state electorate of Dubbo have voted not to abandon their preselection privileges by being the guinea pig in the state party’s proposed open primary experiment. There is reportedly a more welcoming mood in Port Macquarie, which like Dubbo is a former Nationals seat that has now had consecutive independent members.
Tonights 7.30 Report was one of the most unusual that I have ever seen. I think Wong and Macfarlane are sincere in their desire to reach a compromise. It was actually wierd seeing a federal liberal party politician not lie or use spin for the first time ever.
They also wasted a few seconds of air time on Christine Milne who along with her Greens party have ruled themselves out of negotiations as completely irrelevant.
I shutter to think how irresponsible it would have been for the government to commit to the impractical targets proposed by the Greens ahead of talks in Copenhagen.
On environment issues, you place your trust on:
1. Labor,
2. Liberal,
3. hmm, give it to the Nationals purely on economic circumstances, and
4. The Greens.
🙂
I hope you enjoyed my post marky 😛
😆
ShowsOn, you took that photo on your work phone in between making pro-government propagandist comments on the Pollbludger, didn’t you?
Anything on Climate Change- Diogenes, or are we going to adopt a lemon…
Best to scrap a Solar Rebate Scheme because it is to costly but best to put place thousands of signs telling us all that this was another government project outside a school built from stimulus money..
[I was watching the ABC News coverage of the planning decision on Branxton. I have to say that it alas had about zero of the nuance and subtlety that Antony outlined…IMHO, it was much closer in both content and tone to Socrates’ description at 502; they even managed to get Graham Richardson into the segment. I was half expecting Minister Keneally to appear in the next visual in a very fetching orange jump-suit being frog-marched by the constabulary down to Mulawa.
No doubt the segment will be on the internet before too long, so with respect Antony, your collegues do not appear to have the appropriate standards that you demonstrate . I doubt any posteriors being shot 😀 ]
And here is the NSW ABC News story in question 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/10/19/2718316.htm
[Scorpio you are so correct, anyone different is a marked man or markyed man…
Be careful of those who we cannot brainwash or capture or who have original thoughts…]
Who is capturing who?
Centre your insightful comments will ensure you get a job in Peter Garretts or John Brumby’s office.
Frank, that report has nothing to do with the Branxton decision!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the report on Branxton
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/10/19/2718315.htm
[Frank, that report has nothing to do with the Branxton decision!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the report on Branxton]
Ahok, I thought he was referring to what I posted – mea culpa.
marky
We are going to adopt a lemon. It may even turn into a grapefruit if Labor accept any of he COALitions amendments. I really hate grapefruit.
Still, if Copenhagen comes up with something like a 15% target, our lemon could become a blood orange which I’m quite fond of. 👿
marky I am open to all offers, depending on the pay of course.
Diog,
marky is not worried about the fruits around here. Just the vegetables and nuts.
The New South Wales government, what a government it is. A government that decides to build a underground inner city railway without costing it…
A government who decides not to privatise power because the union movement led by John Robertson fights the proposals( good on them too) and then John Robertson some two years later ends up in parliament and as energy minister.. Strange, corrupt or just politics… New South Wales where any simple dill could be politican for the Liberals and the Labor Party…
[One of the reasons i dissappeared is because this site has bloggers who work for the government.]
That may be true but I have always understood that they are here to help.
I missed your insightful, well thought out comments Greensborough. I am learning so much from you.
[ShowsOn, you took that photo on your work phone in between making pro-government propagandist comments on the Pollbludger, didn’t you?]
Yes I admit it, and according to others on this blog, I also work for the Liberals and the (non existent) Australian nuclear power industry.
marky,
I always thought you knew it all. That is why women swoon and men doff their caps when you pass.
[We are going to adopt a lemon. It may even turn into a grapefruit if Labor accept any of he COALitions amendments. I really hate grapefruit.]
I just can’t understand how the government and opposition can possibly reach an agreement on agriculture.
The coalition position is that agriculture should be excluded permanently, while the government position is that it should be included in some form after 2015.
How can agriculture be permanently excluded for a temporary period?
[Yes I admit it, and according to others on this blog, I also work for the Liberals and the (non existent) Australian nuclear power industry.]
the truth will set you free
😉
[New South Wales where any simple dill could be politican for the Liberals and the Labor Party…]
geez if only William didn’t have rules about personal comments, that sentence is rip for response…
have to say marky your comment about Cate Blanchett highlights your own lack of originality.
And given she is the head of Sydney’s major theatre company, she is actually one of the best people to ask about arts policy in this country.
And that is all she is being asked about. People like you and Bolt go on like she is formulating the Afghanistan War policy.
ShowsOn, there’s a lot of wiggle room in the words ‘in some form after 2015’.
I forgot their is someone on here preaching nuclear power.
Dr David Suzuki sums up nuclear power in this actual…
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/about_us/Dr_David_Suzuki/Article_Archives/weekly03170601.asp
And what of the cheapest and best energy source for us all…
You should be politics Shows On, perhaps you are…
[the truth will set you free]
The truth will make your head explode.
How do i know it all if i am learning things from you… ?
Diogenes, a page 1 article in the SMH that stated a Minister acted unlwafully would have been very precisely legalled. I read the post on here first and was later astonished to find how far the SMH went.
[The truth will make your head explode.]
Now,now shows
Dont start going all feral again.
Evening all. Interesting discussion about the NSW Planning Minister Ms Keneally.
In summary, Graham Richardson and other fleas lobby the head of the NSW Planning Department on huge developments on behalf of big party donors repeatedly, and get approval for rubbish proposals over the top of genuine community concerns, expert opinion, and proper processes (Huntley and Catherine Hill Bay for example), but Minister Keneally says this last month:
[“When people say there is a development for donations culture in NSW, they never back that up with which development, which decision and which donation. It’s just a vague claim about a culture that exists.”]
And this, believe it or not:
[“We need to understand that there’s a Westminster system of government, and it’s a longstanding principle in a Westminster system of government that ministers do not interfere with the running of departments. It is not up to me as a minister to direct the Director General as to who he should meet with or who he shouldn’t meet with. It is not up to me to peruse his diary and tell him what he should and shouldn’t do. The Director General needs to have the ability to provide the minister with full and frank and advice. And that is what the Department’s role is, that is what he does do. It’s the not the Director General’s role to provide the minister on advise of views of specific lobbyists.”]
This is a direct quote from Stateline (not an discredited newpaper report).
The NSW government is so far beyond terminal that they are like the walking dead. They don’t even attempt a defence to their rorts any more.
The standards have slipped so far now that Keneally can remain a Minister after that pathetic performance and her absolute failure to explain the lobbying and shonky decision-making processes she is responsible for (or should be). If she isn’t responsible, then who is? Why wouldn’t – and why shouldn’t – the SMH and Quentin Dempster be focussing on this continuing rort? It would be irresponsible not to. More power to them.
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/nsw/content/2006/s2716663.htm
Shows On,
Only if you use rule 303.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEZC9aWeCfs&feature=PlayList&p=16FFA7D904C0D816&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=4
[Dr David Suzuki sums up nuclear power in this actual…]
Suzuki has been opposed to nuclear power forever, so this isn’t surprising.
[And what of the cheapest and best energy source for us all…
You should be politics Shows On, perhaps you are…]
Well nuclear is cheaper that solar and wind. But hey, don’t let facts get in the way of your conspiracy theories.
Ah marky, the lefty with a grudge as big as the Grand Canyon. Good to see you back. I must tell Kev you’re back. He will be delighted.
Shows if it is cheaper, show me the facts?
Kev will find some way to spin it… Gary…
[I must tell Kev you’re back. He will be delighted.]
are you on the plane?
marky marky, so much hostility and criticism of the government. Nevermind the 60/40 tagline that you are posting under..Rudd is very bad and unpopular. You should be on Insiders!!
[Now,now shows
Dont start going all feral again.]
I’m still waiting for you to explain how and where Victoria will build 25 solar power stations in order to replace just two of its coal furnaces.
The New South Wales Government is not terminal because the Liberals are not much better.
God i would hate to be in New South Wales casting a vote,, what a choice…
I have been watching a video called “The Last Bastion”. It was made in 1984 and depicts the events in Australian politics during WW2. Very well acted. Eddie Ward reminds me of marky. As far as Eddie was concerned Curtain couldn’t do a thing right.
Antony
Although her actions may have been correctly described as unlawful, I gather from your post that at the time she acted, she had every reason to consider that she was acting lawfully. It was only the subsequent unforeseeable judgment against Sartor which stuffed her up. She can’t be blamed for that, although the SMH article doesn’t tell the full story.
[Shows if it is cheaper, show me the facts?]
Shh
Dont want to disturb shows vibe and make him actually provide proof.
beggorah and off with you.
😉
[are you on the plane?]
Err, when he gets back.
GG @ 677
A great scene. The Breaker should have got off the charge on the basis that those Kitchener moustaches on the British panel were a travesty of manshaping.
Anyone else support an investigation to see if Morant should be posthumously exonerated – on the basis that the court-martial brought bias to the hearing?
At least he was not frightened to open up his mouth… Must admit Eddie was a bit feral at times and i did always agree with him.
A old catholic right winger Eddie so different to me a lefty agnostic heterosexual…
whooops meant to say …. always did not agree with Eddie….
Antony at 647
[a blog post that describes a minister as acting unlawfully and a news report that stated she got her decision wrong are different in tone and content.]
Well, the blog at 502 said the minister acted unlawfully and the ABC News report was that the minister acted with bias and taking into account irrelavent information (i.e. denial of natural justice, that is to say, unlawful, as quashed by the LEC reportedly); the comments in the blog at 502 and the news report on apprehended bias and taking into account irrelavent information was not particularly causally connected to the Catherine Hill decision (as you more clearly outlined in 504); and both blog and ABC News referred to developer donations and Graham Richardson.
I still think 502 and ABC News are closer together in tone and content than your 504 (which I suspect is more accurate assessment summary).
I dont think it would have taken much effort for ABC News to have presented the story in a less lurid and I suspect more accurate manner (e.g. starting off with “Following the recent LEC decision on Catherine Hill…”)
[The Breaker should have got off the charge on the basis that those Kitchener moustaches on the British panel were a travesty of manshaping.]
That’s a great line.
[A old catholic right winger Eddie so different to me a lefty agnostic heterosexual…]
Are we talking about the same Eddie Ward? Eddie was a unionist through and through and an ex boxer if this video is anything to go by. As for his sexual preference I have no idea nor do I care.
Gusface, as i said Shows should be in politics as they rarely make decisions based on hard incisive facts….
[Only if you use rule 303.]
That is one of the greatest scenes in Australian cinema.
[One of the reasons i dissappeared is because this site has bloggers who work for the government. They do not want to admit it, but their aim is to feed government information and blog government propaganda.]
marky marky, i am catching your disease ……. must be the brain-washing by the Dear Leader … he is just across the river
with the last train to
Marky marky @ 685
[God i would hate to be in New South Wales casting a vote,, what a choice…]
Indeed. At least it’s optional preferential voting, and a lot a independents will be in with a chance – or I hope so.
Never meant to suggest that Eddie was not a heterosexual but he was Grouper….