Friday, December 4
LATE: Michelle Grattan of The Age reports “Liberal sources” believe the situation in Higgins to be “lineball”.
EARLY: Apologies for lack of updates. Malcolm Mackerras is tipping a Greens boilover: he says the Liberal vote will sink to 44 per cent, and presumably expects something like 70 per cent of preferences to go to the Greens. That would entail a 10 per cent drop on the primary vote, which is not dissimilar to what happened in somewhat similar circumstances in Mayo last year. However, Higgins is notable for its lack of volatility, so Mackerras is taking a bold punt on the force of the Abbott/ETS backlash. I can’t help recalling Mackerras’s prediction of a John Kerry landslide in 2004, which appeared to be rooted in a conviction that voters would prove as angered by the Iraq war as he was – his talk of “resentment at climate change denialists” strikes me as being cut from the same cloth. I’m tipping an uncomfortable night for Kelly O’Dwyer, but expect she will get up. At this point, Greens supporters with long memories will be recalling I said much the same thing before the Fremantle by-election.
Word on the ground is that the Liberal campaign has focused on O’Dwyer’s positives, rather than attack Hamilton as an extremist as might have been expected if they were really worried. However, it seems the party has embarked on a significant change of tack in the past week, with O’Dwyer “issuing a last-minute mail-out to voters to assert her views on climate change”.
As always, tune in tomorrow night for live coverage.
Tuesday, November 17
Blogger and former Liberal Party activist Tim Andrews offers a colourful take on the Greens preselection process, alleging widespread discontent in local branches over the imposition of Clive Hamilton.
Friday, November 13
The ballot paper draw has been conducted, and the order of candidates can be viewed here. Candidates I hadn’t known about: independent Peter Brohier (“lawyer”), Isaac Roberts of the Liberal Democratic Party (“accountant”) and Democratic Labor Party regular John Mulholland (“psychologist”).
Friday, November 6
AAP reports Steve Raskovy, “a 72-year-old former Hungarian wrestler and refugee”, will run for One Nation. Antony Green has embellished his by-election page with candidate details.
Wednesday, November 4
From Friedrich in comments we learn that Joseph Toscano, Anarchist Media Institute director and prolific writer of letters to the editor, is seeking the local residents’ signatures required to lodge a nomination.
Tuesday, November 3
LATE: The Australian Democrats have announced their candidate will be David Collyer, who contributes regular posts to the blog of the party’s Victorian division.
EARLY: Climate Sceptics announces that Stephen Murphy, a Melbourne computer programmer who “speaks five languages”, will run as an “Independent Climate Sceptic”.
Thursday, October 29
Antony Green weighs in on the by-election, adding further voice to the consensus that the Greens’ nomination of Clive Hamilton is tactically unsound. Danielle Crowe of the Manningham Leader reports Crikey empire founder, Manningham councillor and perennial deposit non-recoverer Stephen Mayne has “not ruled out” running as an independent. Nominations close November 12, with the ballot draw to follow the next day.
Monday, October 26
Speaker Harry Jenkins has confirmed that the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections will be held on December 5.
Saturday, October 24
A wide-ranging chorus of critics has chimed in to argue Hamilton’s decidedly non-liberal political and economic philosophies are a poor fit for the electorate he has chosen to contest. As “Carlton’s lone classical liberal” Andrew Norton puts it: “It’s not often that Pollytics, Andrew Bolt and Catallaxy blogs all reach the same conclusion”. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports similar sentiments from RMIT University economist and Institute of Public Affairs senior fellow Sinclair Davidson, who argues voters in Higgins (which as Kerr notes includes “Chapel Street, Toorak Road and the High Street strip”) are unlikely to respond to the “ascetic” and “spartan” lifestyle Hamilton demands to ward off ecological apocalypse, to be achieved if need be by “the suspension of democratic processes”. On top of which, his views on internet filtering could potentially alienate parts of the Greens’ core constituency, particularly if they have an alternative candidate to turn to.
Friday, October 23
The Greens have unveiled a high-profile candidate in Clive Hamilton, founder and former executive director of left-wing think tank the Australia Institute and current professor of public ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.
Thursday, October 22
Labor has slightly surprisingly decided it won’t be entering the fray. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports: “Labor insiders who spoke on condition of anonymity explained that the widespread presumption of demographic change in Higgins, and a big swing more generally, was not substantiated by the party’s secret polling, presented on Powerpoint to the Prime Minister recently, which showed a likely Liberal victory even in the tough circumstances in Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals find themselves.”
Monday, October 19
Peter Costello formally tendered his resignation today to Speaker Harry Jenkins, who is expected to announce an election date of November 28 or December 5 in the coming days.
Saturday, October 10
Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Peter Costello will officially resign when parliament resumes on October 19. Given a campaign of average length, this will mean a polling date of November 28 or December 5: after “the final two-week parliamentary sitting in which the Coalition – if it doesn’t filibuster – will have to vote on Labor’s emissions trading scheme”. Antony Green at the ABC and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have guides to the by-election posted.
Wednesday, October 7
Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Peter Costello is “set to resign from Parliament today”, which will most likely result in a by-election for his seat of Higgins on the same yet-to-be-announced date as the one for Bradfield. Costello holds the eastern suburbs Melbourne seat with a margin of 7.0 per cent, having suffered a swing of 1.7 per cent at the 2007 election. The preselection to replace him at the next election was held a fortnight ago and won by his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer.
[Kelly O’Dwyer is better looking than Leigh Sales ShowsOn that is my humble opinion.]
Glen, you can have your own opinions but not your own facts. Sales is over nine thousand times more attractive than O’Dwyer.
O’Dwyer is more attractive than Costello though, I’ll give you that.
[and she won pre-selection to a seat reserved for future leaders of the Party.]
and for future perpetual deputy leaders of the party who never have the guts to become leader.
[But she’s worked in the financial system,]
So have bank tellers
[ is a lawyer]
Like 90% of parliament
[ and has worked in Canberra]
Like several hundred thousand people
[ and she’s a female]
So is the Vicar of Dibley and 51% of the population
[ and she comes from humble beginnings ]
As do most in the Labor party and union officials.
This doesn’t erase that her major selling point is being Costello’s secretary and a woman. Not really the makings of a future leader as best I can tell.
Didn’t O’Dwyer work for Freehills – the guys and gals that wrote the workchoices legislation?
Having said that, I think the next PM will be a woman. Looking forward to PM Gillard!
Does anyone know if Kelly O’Dwyer’s parents were Liberal voters?
As with Sophie Mirabella, most people turn out politically the way their parents did
Yay team
Howard…..gone
Costello….gone
Brough…..gone
Nelson…..gone
Can life get any better. Turnbull is next, then Hockey, then Abbott…the list goes on
woohoo
Don’t hold back there, Gerard.
It’s Christmas for me and it’s only October
So what happened………..the rope in the hammock finally rotted and his a#se hit the turf?
OK, I’m throwing it out there despite the inevitability of being wrong.
Costello elected leader in a spill during the ETS peace talks on 18 October.
And, because now I can, 👿
So what happened………..the rope in the hammock finally rotted and his a#se hit the turf?
Ha ha good one centurian
[most people turn out politically the way their parents did]
Not me. I’m the first Labor voter ever in my family. My grandfather was a founding member of the Liberal Party.
We will field a candidate, and we will fight them tooth and nail. The difficulty is Bradfield at the same time where we won’t. We might look a bit silly.
We need a celebrity or semi-celebrity. An ex footballer will do
Do they wear strings of garlic around their necks when you attend family gatherings, Psephos?
lolpolz provide their take.
http://dailylolz.lolpolz.com/2009/10/costello-quits-by-election-for-higgins.html
Toorak is less than 10% of the vote in Higgins.
The ALP’s problem in this seat is the Malvern/Glen Iris/Camberwell area that is very soild for the Liberals, we are talking booths that vote 55% up to the high sixties on the TPP
The idea of Tim Costello runnign may look really good if this seat actually went down into St Kilda, again i am not sure how he could move the Malvern/Glen Iris/Camberwell bit.
Should the ALP run, look they have four branches in the seat and of the four Liberal Ribboun seats thsi along with Goldsteain are the best ones for the ALP.
If the pollingn is correct it is in the city that Turnbull is struggling the most and with the strong economy news then maybe the ALP should run but it is important that they choose a local and someone who is to put it nicely a type that is not a ramped left winger in the class welfare sense.
Maybe the women who ran in Goldstein in 2007 or a Eddie Maguire type.
Glen! i personally have some expereince of and respect for Kelly O’Dwyer but the way you are wetting yourself is bemusing, she is okay but no she is not more atttractive than Leigh Sales.
Looking at Psephos map, if the ALP could cement the booths around South Yarra and pick up the booths around Malvern East then it could be a close result but i would expect a result of at least for the Liberals to win with between 53-55%
Glen Glen Glen
I forgot about him
Haven’t been on here since the last election
Glen would wet himself if little Johnny winked at him.
He did & still does talk up losers in the Liberal party.
The dinasaurs he so often talked up are all deserting like rats off a sinking ship.
But I still love Glenn & Edward St James’s (I think) comments.
No sure about Kelly’s parents class background, but her father was in the Army Reserve, and quite senior I think. Although we were political opponents I was friendly with her then boyfriend (now husband) who said that he found the statistics on how fast Kelly’s father could strip a rifle slightly intimidating upon first going out with her. 🙂
Certainly there are some Army Reservists who support Labor (and occassionally Greens) a solid majority would be Liberal supporters I suspect.
I am almost certain that the ALP will not run in Higgins (nor will they run in Bradfield).
Running in these seats where they have a limited chance to win will only help to give the Opposition a boost if the ALP do not win it.
As such, I would have thought the best course of action for the ALP would be to not run at all and back a surreptitiously back a Tim Costello-like independent.
Stephen! Knowing Higgins as well as i do the locals will not care for her background for she has already been a bank excutive and that will mean more than what her father was.
Of course the older folk may ask but as if they wont vote Liberal, o please with that i will tut tut off;)
Ah Stephen Luntz,
Will the Greens Run? Or more interestingly who will be the likely candidate, Does Brantz? live near, who will the Fortress Melbourne crew push out.?
What are your thoughts, clearly unwinnable but great confidence booster?
Heard an interesting comment today, If Bob Brown resigned the questioner was wondering if our fearless even tempered leader would offer him position in the foriegn junket line. The question is ofcourse the answer. Why don’t the ALP and the Libs just form a coalition and get it all over with.
What sort of slogan would Eddie McGuire run on? Mediocrity: My Problem Child? Shut Your Face. I’m Everybody’s Mate!? Bring Back Responsible Nightclubs (Like Tok H)?
Who Wants to be an MP? The Political Footy Show?
#125
“I will “bone” Higgins”
Brown is 65 now. He’ll be looking for a hammock and cycle when he leaves Parliament.
Although he might try one last effort to do something constructive with his life.
[Do they wear strings of garlic around their necks when you attend family gatherings, Psephos?]
They are careful not to provoke me. The family now has a junior Green faction as well, so I get to argue in both directions at once.
[Although he might try one last effort to do something constructive with his life.]
He helped save the Franklin river. He convinced his party to vote for the second stimulus package (with minor amendments). He was the doctor who pronounced Jimi Hendrix dead on arrival.
Shows On,
D-
Psephos,
Your family joy reminds me of that adage Pollies trot out when they retire early, “Spending more time with the family”.
Why would their families want to spend more time with them?
[… so I get to argue in both directions at once.]
With my dear Mum and Dad now both gone (and missed more with each passing year) I really miss those family all-in brawls around the Sunday dinner table.
Dad, the original “Bushfire Bill”, telling my brother in law that he’s a wimp for not standing up to my sister, then segueing into “What time did you get out of bloody bed?” to me, with Kitty-Wit (Mum) asking us all (as if nothing had happened) did we want some more roast chicken, and could we hurry because she had the washing up to do? y sister puffing ostentatiously (and chokingly) on a Dunhill telling us – me and the brother in law – to kill ourselves if we liked but she wasn’t coming to the funerals.
Once I brough a girlfriend along to one of these afternoons. She’d been insistently asking to be invited. Was I ashamed of her? Embarrassed? No, I replied. it’s just that our family is… well… not what she was used to.
At the end of the evening, after being treated by everyone on their scrupulous best behaviour, she turned to me in the car and said she never wanted to be invited to another one of those family punch-ups, EVER again.
She got her wish.
So, Psehphy, I envy you your argumentative family and your political differences. We had none of the latter – we were all Labor to the core – but given the excuse, we’d have had a fight over two flies crawling up the wall – and made sure we did. As for the former, argumentation was our stock in trade.
It always ended with big kisses and cuddles and Mum saying to me I should come over more often with Bill going off to get on his oxygen (necessary for emphysema) and my sister and her hubby looking ga-ga at each other as they got into the car (who knows what they’d be getting up to when they got home?). But I still remember Mum asking me to come next week, and any week I wanted to, with Dad calling me “Son” towards the end, knowing he was dying.
I should have gone more often, but I am luckier than most: those who never knew their family. I knew mine, or at least I hope I did.
BB – for gawd’s sake, write a book. That was terrific.
Wonder if Peter and Tim Costello ever argued over the dinner table. They seem so different.
I think that if the ALP can find a local candidate, with some sort of profile, they should run hard in Higgins.
People wont really expect them to win.
If there is a swing against them, its news for a day, and gets put down to normal by election behavior.
If there is a swing to them, it puts yet more pressure on the Libs and whover is leading them by then.
Hey, the libs are in such dissarray that the ALP may even win it!!
Given current polling and trend, I cant see a serious downside to this for the ALP.
What would the chances be of the Greens winning off ALP preferences?
BB@133:
[I should have gone more often, but I am luckier than most: those who never knew their family. I knew mine, or at least I hope I did.]
Ain’t it the truth?
Wish I could talk to my dad again.
Anybody else out there – ring your mum and/or dad, and tell them you love them, even if it means they fall off their chair.
Just do it.
[He was the doctor who pronounced Jimi Hendrix dead on arrival.]
I have read that, but I’ve also read that he was on duty that night, but didn’t actually treat Hendrix.
It seems to be a point of dispute.
parachute a celebrity in and bring on the circus I say! We shouldn’t let O’dwyer just have it. Make them work for it even though she’ll win. a trip from Kevin and from swanny would be great.
Psephos
You aren’t alone – my parents both have voted National Party life-long, or at least since they met in the country before I was born. In fact, mum helped on an NP campaign when she was young. Needless to say I have never voted NP. I’m not a member of any party now, but was in the Democrats for a time. Ever since the Libs went to what I regard as too far to the right our (political) differences have been irreconcileable.
[Not me. I’m the first Labor voter ever in my family. My grandfather was a founding member of the Liberal Party.]
It’s not that surprising considering the Labor Party of today is the Liberal Party of yesterday 🙂
Labor were riding high in Newspoll when the Gippsland by-election occurred, yet Labor suffered a 6% swing.
BY-ELECTIONS USUALLY PRODUCE SWINGS AGAINST GOVERNMENTS.
There is nothing to suggest Labor would gain a swing. But the consistent optimism from all the cute little Labor hacks is still heartening 🙂
I said yesterday:
[By-elections nearly always produce a swing against the government, regardless of the popularity of the government. The by-elections in 1983-84, at the height of Hawke’s popularity, illustrate this, as does Gippsland. But there have been exceptions: Earlwood in 1976, Burwood and Benalla in 1999, and Fremantle in 2004 for Carmen Lawrence. The likelihood is that there would be a swing against Labor at a contested by-election in Higgins.]
So it’s dishonest to attack “Labor hacks” while REPEATING what I (a Labor hack) already said, and said rather better. When you have an original thought on this subject, get back to us.
[So it’s dishonest to attack “Labor hacks” while REPEATING what I (a Labor hack) already said]
It’s called a generalisation. I never said *all* Labor hacks reckon Labor can win Higgins.
[When you have an original thought ]
Labor not being able to win Higgins is an original thought, created by you?
I SALUTE YOU!!!
😀
*yawn*
[I never said *all* Labor hacks ]
Um, yes you did actually.
[all the cute little Labor hacks ]
You can’t even tell the truth about your own untruths!
The important thing about Higgins is not whether or not Labor might contest it and if they do, how their vote performs – the significance is that yesterday’s leadership pretender will be gone for good. The public, the commentators and the Liberals will look anew at the composition and quality of the Liberal leadership. And who do they see? Turnbull and Bishop: the dissembling and the clueless. They will look for policy and ministerial credentials, and find they peer into a vacuum.
[Labor is still deciding whether to run a candidate; federal sources said last night it was leaning against.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/turnbulls-grip-slipping-20091007-gn8g.html
[Um, yes you did actually.]
Then apologies for the blanket assertion which was not my intention.
[You can’t even tell the truth about your own untruths!]
Yawn, go play ‘gotcha’ somewhere else.
[The important thing about Higgins is not whether or not Labor might contest it]
I maintain that they won’t.
And no, it’s highly unlikely there’d be a swing to Labor at this by-election. Hawke and Rudd at the height of their popularily have failed to muster a swing at by-elections their party has contested.
ANTI-GOVERNMENT SWINGS USUALLY OCCUR AT BY-ELECTIONS REGARDLESS OF POPULARITY.
But again, the endless optimism of some Labor hacks is always adorable and cute 🙂
[But again, the endless optimism of some Labor hacks is always adorable and cute]
Wow, good to see you have now qualified yourself by saying your coments only apply to “some Labor hacks”.
Why wouldn’t Labor hacks feel kind of confident about how? The Liberals are in an absolute mess, I doubt they will be this bad during the next general election campaign.
[But again, the endless optimism of some Labor hacks is always adorable and cute]
So is that chip on your shoulder bob. It’s causing you a little discomfort today obviously.