Higgins by-election: December 5

Friday, December 4

LATE: Michelle Grattan of The Age reports “Liberal sources” believe the situation in Higgins to be “lineball”.

EARLY: Apologies for lack of updates. Malcolm Mackerras is tipping a Greens boilover: he says the Liberal vote will sink to 44 per cent, and presumably expects something like 70 per cent of preferences to go to the Greens. That would entail a 10 per cent drop on the primary vote, which is not dissimilar to what happened in somewhat similar circumstances in Mayo last year. However, Higgins is notable for its lack of volatility, so Mackerras is taking a bold punt on the force of the Abbott/ETS backlash. I can’t help recalling Mackerras’s prediction of a John Kerry landslide in 2004, which appeared to be rooted in a conviction that voters would prove as angered by the Iraq war as he was – his talk of “resentment at climate change denialists” strikes me as being cut from the same cloth. I’m tipping an uncomfortable night for Kelly O’Dwyer, but expect she will get up. At this point, Greens supporters with long memories will be recalling I said much the same thing before the Fremantle by-election.

Word on the ground is that the Liberal campaign has focused on O’Dwyer’s positives, rather than attack Hamilton as an extremist as might have been expected if they were really worried. However, it seems the party has embarked on a significant change of tack in the past week, with O’Dwyer “issuing a last-minute mail-out to voters to assert her views on climate change”.

As always, tune in tomorrow night for live coverage.

Tuesday, November 17

Blogger and former Liberal Party activist Tim Andrews offers a colourful take on the Greens preselection process, alleging widespread discontent in local branches over the imposition of Clive Hamilton.

Friday, November 13

The ballot paper draw has been conducted, and the order of candidates can be viewed here. Candidates I hadn’t known about: independent Peter Brohier (“lawyer”), Isaac Roberts of the Liberal Democratic Party (“accountant”) and Democratic Labor Party regular John Mulholland (“psychologist”).

Friday, November 6

AAP reports Steve Raskovy, “a 72-year-old former Hungarian wrestler and refugee”, will run for One Nation. Antony Green has embellished his by-election page with candidate details.

Wednesday, November 4

From Friedrich in comments we learn that Joseph Toscano, Anarchist Media Institute director and prolific writer of letters to the editor, is seeking the local residents’ signatures required to lodge a nomination.

Tuesday, November 3

LATE: The Australian Democrats have announced their candidate will be David Collyer, who contributes regular posts to the blog of the party’s Victorian division.

EARLY: Climate Sceptics announces that Stephen Murphy, a Melbourne computer programmer who “speaks five languages”, will run as an “Independent Climate Sceptic”.

Thursday, October 29

Antony Green weighs in on the by-election, adding further voice to the consensus that the Greens’ nomination of Clive Hamilton is tactically unsound. Danielle Crowe of the Manningham Leader reports Crikey empire founder, Manningham councillor and perennial deposit non-recoverer Stephen Mayne has “not ruled out” running as an independent. Nominations close November 12, with the ballot draw to follow the next day.

Monday, October 26

Speaker Harry Jenkins has confirmed that the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections will be held on December 5.

Saturday, October 24

A wide-ranging chorus of critics has chimed in to argue Hamilton’s decidedly non-liberal political and economic philosophies are a poor fit for the electorate he has chosen to contest. As “Carlton’s lone classical liberal” Andrew Norton puts it: “It’s not often that Pollytics, Andrew Bolt and Catallaxy blogs all reach the same conclusion”. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports similar sentiments from RMIT University economist and Institute of Public Affairs senior fellow Sinclair Davidson, who argues voters in Higgins (which as Kerr notes includes “Chapel Street, Toorak Road and the High Street strip”) are unlikely to respond to the “ascetic” and “spartan” lifestyle Hamilton demands to ward off ecological apocalypse, to be achieved if need be by “the suspension of democratic processes”. On top of which, his views on internet filtering could potentially alienate parts of the Greens’ core constituency, particularly if they have an alternative candidate to turn to.

Friday, October 23

The Greens have unveiled a high-profile candidate in Clive Hamilton, founder and former executive director of left-wing think tank the Australia Institute and current professor of public ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.

Thursday, October 22

Labor has slightly surprisingly decided it won’t be entering the fray. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports: “Labor insiders who spoke on condition of anonymity explained that the widespread presumption of demographic change in Higgins, and a big swing more generally, was not substantiated by the party’s secret polling, presented on Powerpoint to the Prime Minister recently, which showed a likely Liberal victory even in the tough circumstances in Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals find themselves.”

Monday, October 19

Peter Costello formally tendered his resignation today to Speaker Harry Jenkins, who is expected to announce an election date of November 28 or December 5 in the coming days.

Saturday, October 10

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Peter Costello will officially resign when parliament resumes on October 19. Given a campaign of average length, this will mean a polling date of November 28 or December 5: after “the final two-week parliamentary sitting in which the Coalition – if it doesn’t filibuster – will have to vote on Labor’s emissions trading scheme”. Antony Green at the ABC and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have guides to the by-election posted.

Wednesday, October 7

Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Peter Costello is “set to resign from Parliament today”, which will most likely result in a by-election for his seat of Higgins on the same yet-to-be-announced date as the one for Bradfield. Costello holds the eastern suburbs Melbourne seat with a margin of 7.0 per cent, having suffered a swing of 1.7 per cent at the 2007 election. The preselection to replace him at the next election was held a fortnight ago and won by his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

484 comments on “Higgins by-election: December 5”

Comments Page 2 of 10
1 2 3 … 10

  2. Are the Nationals allowed to run a candidate in Higgins since there will be no sitting member?

    I just mean purely under the coalition agreement? I’m not saying they will.

  3. Steve Bracks would be senior and sufficiently unsullied for Higgins. He lives in Williamstown but his kids are grown and he could keep a pad in the south east for address sake.

  4. [Steve Bracks would be senior and sufficiently unsullied for Higgins.]
    I have no idea why he would want to run, but if he did he would probably win.

  6. Costello could win on Green preferences. His candidacy could attract a lot of Labor and Liberal voters, he may not need preferences at all!

  7. [ I have no idea why he would want to run, but if he did he would probably win.]

    Because he’d be guaranteed of 6 years of trouble free politics in the nations capital, probably in cabinet and then with a nice big pension at the end. He’s probably bored with all those boards and enquiries by now and this would make a respectable book end to his career and the biggest plus of all, he would be the slayer of the mythical dragon of Higgins.

  9. [Because he’d be guaranteed of 6 years of trouble free politics in the nations capital, probably in cabinet and then with a nice big pension at the end]
    I just can’t see the point there are lots of great Victorian MPs Feeney, Dreyfus, Marles. Bracks would just block them from becoming ministers.

  12. From the comments thread on that Bolt post comes this doozy:

    [It does not matter than the seat is on a 7% margin. I read that there were some funny goings on with the votes in John Howards seat. It could happen again.

    There is no checking.

    Deb bie (Reply)

    Wed 07 Oct 09 (03:48pm) ]

    Look out Libs, the AEC is out to get you!

  13. Julian Burnside would be an excellent candidate if he could be persuaded – right background (read private school and the ‘right’ one at that), right profession, appeals to doctors wives, libertarians. He’d be a maverick within the party once elected but that’s for later.

  16. [Julian Burnside would be an excellent candidate if he could be persuaded ]
    Labor already has one Victorian Q.C. in parliament, do they really need another?
    [I don`t think that Burnside would run for the ALP. For the Greens maybe but not the ALP.]
    Great idea! Julian Burnside for the Greens. They should just start making their corflutes tonight, then dare him to waste all that corflutish material which would be against Green policy.

  17. My bet is Kelly-O will win Higgins with a reduced margin, may even be forced to preferences, but still a relatively comfortable win.

    But Costello leaving is a seismic shift in Vic Liberal politics. The Kroeger-Costello faction is waning. Who will fill the vacuum?

  21. What do we know about Kelly O apart from the fact that she was educated at PLC and Melbourne Uni and has been working in Costello’s office since she was 26? Has she made any kind of statement since winning preselection? Anything vaguely political?

  22. If the election is held late in the year a redistribution might make Victoria interesting and even maybe Higgins for the federal elections.

    AEC says redistribution will start on 29th January 2010. 11 days before it can’t due to the constiution. I am assuming if the election is held late in the year the new boundries will take effect?

    “A direction to commence a redistribution cannot be made within one year before the expiry of a House of Representatives (subsection 59(3) of the Electoral Act). As a result, the Electoral Commission must commence the redistribution in Victoria between 29 January 2010 and 10 February 2010.”

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2010/vic/index.htm

  23. By-elections nearly always produce a swing against the government, regardless of the popularity of the government. The by-elections in 1983-84, at the height of Hawke’s popularity, illustrate this, as does Gippsland. But there have been exceptions: Earlwood in 1976, Burwood and Benalla in 1999, and Fremantle in 2004 for Carmen Lawrence.

    The likelihood is that there would be a swing against Labor at a contested by-election in Higgins. As we saw in 2007, the haute bourgeoisie and their wives do not swing, despite feverish marsupial prognostications, and Malvern and Toorak are as bourgeois as it’s possible to get. So I doubt Labor will stand.

    A strong independent might give the Libs a serious scare. Tim Costello running would obviously be an intriguing scenario, but it would put Peter in a difficult spot, and Tim has always been scrupulous about not embarrassing his brother. So I’m dubious about that, too. Also it seems to me that O’Dwyer is a quality candidate and a good fit for the seat, and that will deter possible challengers.

    (But I’ve been wrong before 🙂 )

  24. [What do we know about Kelly O]
    [Mr Costello is set to endorse Ms O’Dwyer, 32, who worked for him from 2004 to 2007 as a legal adviser. Ms O’Dwyer is a senior executive with National Australia Bank, where she manages the teams that look after the investments and banking of families with wealth worth more than $30 million.

    She is a party activist with a reputation for being highly organised and something of a warrior for the Costello faction.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/costello-to-endorse-liberal-activist-as-higgins-candidate-20090703-d7ut.html

  25. How can Costello KNOW that the by election for his seat will happen at the same time as Bradfield? Who makes these decisions?

    I would have thought that no decision would have been made about the date of the by election until his resignation was official.

  26. Bob @ 50, but the Greens voted with the Nats (and others) to prevent there being ANY Emission Trading Scheme.

    They have proven form in that regard. Why would anyone believe the leopard has changed its spots and will now support any form of ETS?

    The party has shown no sign of travelling the road to Damascus in changing its views since the vote was taken, and the public can only decide on the Greens track record.
    They oppose the ETS. End of story.

    Gee, Green baiting is fun. I wonder why no one has thought of it earlier?

  27. Thanks ShowsOn @ 74

    So she makes money from money for people with lots of money. I see. That would be why she’s a member of the Liberal party.

  30. [Part of Burwood (still held by the ALP!) is part of Higgins.]
    Labor holds Prarahn by a few percent which is in the western end of Higgins.

    Interestingly the Green vote there was 20% in 2006.

  32. 73

    Toorak is not just Bourgeois but partly aristocratic. It is one of the main areas where the Top End of Town live. There are people who buy up their neighbour`s houses and sit on the land in Toorak. That is not middle class that is upper class.

  33. Tom the first and best,

    This is particularly annoying as it is the seat where I live.

    Well, just think of what The Heysen Molotov went through. At least you weren’t represented by Lord Downer!

  35. [Well, just think of what The Heysen Molotov went through. At least you weren’t represented by Lord Downer!]
    I was too until 1998, until I was redistributed to The Duchess of Sturt’s shire.

  38. 84

    I would have thought that you were trying to get the Libs to come first in Prahran as they were second with more chance on coming first that third (at least until the next Victorian redistribution). It is the ALP who the Greens should target in Prahran (at least until the next Victorian redistribution).

  39. I was too until 1998, until I was redistributed to The Duchess of Sturt’s shire.

    Jeez, weren’t they a pair to have adjacent to one another?

    Ah, life as the pawns of the nobility! No wonder we peasants revolt on occasion…

  41. If i and others like me didnt vote for Clem he’d have finished below the Greens 😀

    The Libs should really win prahran but we cant.

  42. I don’t get the excitement about Kelly ODwyer. She’s basically the Liberal equivalent of a Labor “union hack”, yeah? Surely the Parliament has enough ex-staffers already, and ex-Costello staffers at that?

  43. 91

    In a good election the Libs could win win the current Prahran but the Libs won`t have a good enough election next year and the redistribution will likely make it less winnable for the Libs.

  45. Lol Glen. My point is apart from being a chick, what uniqueness does she bring to the Parliament? And if being a staffer provides her with ample “qualifications” to server, why the hypocritical rants about Labor “union hacks”? I can tell you, you can plenty more practical skills as a union organiser than you do sitting in a comfortable MP’s office.

  46. [Oh cmon Vortex she young a female and attractive and qualified what’s not to like about her if you’re a Tory?]
    I don’t find her attractive. I mean, she’s not Leigh Sales for example, who would be an ideal Labor candidate for Higgins.

  48. Oh we did have such fun in Prahran in 2006 with Ted and Clem, the Two Toffs From Toorak, with their baloons and t-shirts and stuff. I spent the day in East St Kilda, and elderly Jewish ladies kept saying to us: “Do zey sink ve are SHTUPID, vit all der balloons and like dis? Zey sink ve are CHILDREN or vat??”

  49. Kelly O’Dwyer is better looking than Leigh Sales ShowsOn that is my humble opinion.

    But she’s worked in the financial system, is a lawyer and has worked in Canberra and she’s a female and she comes from humble beginnings and she’s a top performer and she won pre-selection to a seat reserved for future leaders of the Party.

  50. [My point is apart from being a chick, what uniqueness does she bring to the Parliament? ]
    She has the usual things Liberals consider experience, you know she can talk about how she has worked in the private sector and how this automatically makes her perfectly qualified to be part of a government.

    [Wrong state. Lateline is NSW.]
    LOL! Yeah I was DEADLY serious that Leigh Sales should run for parliament.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 10
1 2 3 … 10