The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are approval ratings for the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader (both up solidly from six weeks ago), respondents’ self-perceptions of their employment and salary outlooks, Kim Beazley’s appointment as ambassador to the United States (54 per cent approve, 18 per cent disapprove) and Brendan Nelson’s appointment as ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg (49 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove).
Also:
• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis breakdown of federal polling results. Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.
• About 200 local Liberal National Party members will vote for a candidate to succeed the outgoing Margaret May in the Gold Coast seat of McPherson on Saturday. Noses have been put out of the joint by the fact that the position was advertised on Thursday, one day before the closure of nominations, which has been universally interpreted as an attempt to assist Peter Dutton in his bid to move to the seat from notionally Labor Dickson. Glenn Milne in The Australian reports that May urged Dutton to nominate for the seat, somewhat deflating the notion that federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews might benefit from being her reported ally. Another of Dutton’s three preselection rivals is Minna Knight, a former staffer to Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop. Milne says Knight has the backing of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, whose husband Richard Stuckey withdrew from the race last week. Rounding out the field is Wayne Black, of whom nothing seems to be known. Despite earlier reports, twice-unsuccessful state Burleigh candidate Michael Hart has not nominated. Tanya Westthorp of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports local members are “threatening to revolt” if the state executive overturns the result of their ballot, as seems likely if Dutton doesn’t win. Andrew Fraser of The Australian notes the local party’s history of rebuffing imported candidates with reference to the 1998 preselection, when former Brisbane lord mayor Sallyanne Atkinson finished sixth in a field of 23.
• The ABC reports that Queensland’s conservatives will soon reach a decision as to whether their federal election candidates will stand as Liberals and Nationals, Liberal Nationals, or the “LNP”.
• AAP reports speculation that Jodie Campbell, federal Labor member for the ultra-marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, might not contest the next election. Campbell has been in the news recently after her partner was charged with assaulting her, and two of her staff members abruptly and mysteriously resigned. The AAP report notes she “has been moved from her much-televised seat in parliament behind the prime minister”. Geoff Lyons, electorate officer to Senator Helen Polley and an unsuccessful state candidate from 2002, is mentioned as a possible replacement.
• Michelle Grattan reports in The Age that former tennis star John Alexander, who made the final six in Saturday’s Bradfield preselection, is “volunteering” to take on Maxine McKew in Bennelong. Others who have been mentioned in the past are Melanie Howard and former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink, all of whom have been ruled out, and former rugby union international Brett Papworth.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Pfizer executive David Miles will challenge Bill Heffernan for the second position on the New South Wales Liberal Senate ticket. Incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells is expected to hold the top position. The third will depend on whether the state Liberal and Nationals can smooth over tensions and reach their usual joint ticket arrangement, in which Nationals Senator Fiona Nash would take the third position.
• Phillip Coorey also reports it is “rumoured” that Noel McCoy has nominated for preselection against Philip Ruddock in Berowra, despite announcing in late July that he would not do so.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Tony Mulder, police commander and Clarence council alderman, has emerged a surprise winner for Liberal preselection in the state division of Franklin. The Liberals are considered all but certain to increase their representation in the five-seat division from one seat to two at the election next March, with incumbent and party leader Will Hodgman assured of re-election. The party hierarchy is apparently keen that the second seat be won by Jacquie Petrusma, who was Family First’s Senate candidate in 2004 and 2007 and came close to winning a seat on the former occasion at the expense of Christine Milne of the Greens. Also on the ticket are Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Vanessa Goodwin was earlier considered to be in the box seat, but she has since found a place in the upper house after winning the Pembroke by-election on August 1.
• In a short but eventful article, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Mark Sheridan, neurosurgeon and director of surgical services at Liverpool Hospital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the outer-southwest Sydney state seat of Menai, held by Labor’s Alison Megarrity on a margin of 2.6 per cent. It is also “understood” that National Rugby League chief operating officer Graham Annesley has again nominated for Miranda in southern Sydney, where he fell 0.8 per cent short of defeating Barry Collier in 2007; that Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has again nominated for the north-west Sydney seat of Londonderry, where Labor’s Allan Shearan defeated him by 6.9 per cent in 2007; and Randwick mayor Bruce Notley-Smith has nominated for the inner eastern Sydney seat of Coogee, held for Labor by Paul Pearce on a margin of 7.3 per cent.
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room is constructing what promises to be a superbly comprehensive guide to the federal election post by post.
• Keep following the action at my regularly updated posts on the Bradfield federal by-election and Willagee state by-election in Western Australia.
Possum 96
Thanks Poss, always good to get some facts into a debate. Amusing to note that the “horror” -2.3% debt this year would have been paid back in fifteen months during the resources boom.
It comes across as very Labor-friendly…
It is quite possible that in the final year of a second term Rudd government that the budget will be back in surplus. At the moment the budget is expected to return to surplus in 2014 / 2015, but given that we have just effectively saved $5 billion in 5 months, I wouldn’t be surprised if we ultimately pay off the debt sometime in 2013, which will most likely be an election year. Saying that you paid off all the debt would be a pretty good foundation for an election campaign.
Which of course makes it wrong then doesn’t it Bob? Not.
Jack’s belief that Grey is a city seat rather undermines his credibility.
Um, yes?
I prefer my media to be neutral.
And a welcome change from the usual anti-Labor, pro-coalition spin spruiked by the Oz.
Why is it Labor friendly? He just pointed out that the story about Labor support declining in QLD is a load of nonsense:
The only part I disagree with is this:
2007 showed that outer urban seats with big margins can fall in a single election with the right candidate and right campaign.
Bob1234,
Jack the Insider is IMO very balanced for an OO writer. This piece reads, as you put it, “Labor friendly” (though it seems to be more about correcting a false claim made by Truss). Other pieces from Jack are Coalition-friendly and/or against Labor.
As Gary Bruce said, he’s one of the best at the OO.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/grand_final_poll_a_disaster_for_coalition/
So you’ve given up watching the TV, listening to the radio and reading newspapers then Bob?
At a time like this, you just gotta ask yourself:
When was the last time I bought the Australian?
Also heard on Their ABC Midday Radio where Stephen Long had his road to Damascus. He actually praised Labor for a change and said:
Stronger ecocomic manager will always be Labor
😆
And Truss was just repeating the false claims made yesterday in The Australian:
Rudd loses ground in home state and in the bush
http://wl.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26133829-5013871,00.html
Maybe Turnbull will threaten to resign if they refuse to see his light. They clearly don’t like him, but who do they want instead?
I didn’t hear him say that. I heard him say that today’s announcement of a $5 billion smaller deficit was thanks to good economic management via the timely stimulus packages and some good luck, specifically the fact the Chinese economy kept on growing.
Turnbull can’t threaten to resign, because they will just accept his resignation.
I think the next Liberal leadership ballot will be between Abbott and Hockey, which Hockey will narrowly win.
He doesn’t he just didn’t split SA on the rural – city divide.
Ah whoops – my fault. He did, but has since amended it.
He did when I read it. Jack must be lurking here.
No, two posters pointed out the error to him.
Being Labor friendly that article by Jack must be wrong and inaccurate just as it must be if it is Green friendly, Liberal friendly or National friendly. It can only be accurate if it is unfriendly to all of them.
Hockey and Abbott would be hopeless. Okay, Turnbull is hopeless too, but of the three he is potentially only temporarily hopeless, whereas for Hockey and Abbott the affliction is permanent.
My solution to Iran’s nuclear program
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q
On the ophthalmology-cataract issue, there are faults on either side but the eye docs are primarily in the wrong. There is very little sympathy for them amongst other specialists.
They have been overpaid for a very quick operation for too long and the new MBS amount is much more reasonable. They should have seen it coming and been proactive and negotiated with the Govt to phase it in gradually.
I gather they weren’t consulted about the 50% cut so the Govt can hardly complain that they are kicking up about it though.
In the end, the main losers will probably be cataract patients, for a while at least.
I take it that PBers disagree that Rudd’s CPRS is ineffectual? Damn that Liberal-rag known as Crikey daily mail………
Diogs,
Jon Faine questioned their association spokesperson this morning on Melbourne radio. He said the situation was comparable to building houses. “Just because housing costs had become more efficient, didn’t mean that house prices went down”.
I can’t argue with that. Mainly because I don’t undertand what he was talking aboutd.
Doctors can charge what they like for these procedures because the medical profession is a cartel. If we had a free market in medical services they would have to cut their prices to compete. There are about 60,000 doctors in Australia. If we brought in, say, 100,000 Indian doctors, and told them they could charge what they liked, we’d soon see prices come down. Plus we’d see a doctor, probably two, in every country town. Of course there would be issues of quality, but that could be regulated.
GG
Basically it’s called profiteering. The AMA has to stick up for them being their union but no-one else will.
I think I’m overpaid but I’ll do an operating list next to an ophthalmologist and they’ll get paid about $10K for their 3 hour list when I get about a tenth.
126
The thing about importing medical doctors is that there is a world wide shortage and it it expensive to train them. Importing them from, say, India would mean that India had less doctors to deal with its medical problems. Australia should train more doctors to bring prices and shortages down.
Psephos
The argument against that is that the single best determinant of health costs is the number of doctors (basically health costs are directly proportional to the number of doctors), which is why Howie restricted the number of people becoming doctors. That of course meant there weren’t enough so there wasn’t much competition.
I didn’t realise we were under orders to agree with everything in Crikey
That’s an argument in *favour* of what I said, not against.
Grog,
News from Bernard Keane would be him writing something positive about the CPRS. He’s entitled to his opinion, but he should try and provide some balance in his reporting. On this issue, he outshines Shanahan with his blindingly obvious prejudices.
A doctor friend who went into research and had to put up with all the ‘why aren’t you out there in the private sector making real money?’ idiots, used to say that it wasn’t that he wasn’t being paid enough, it was that others were being paid too much.
(Gus Nossal predicts he’ll be our next Nobel prize winner, so it may pay out for him long term!)
131
It is argument in favour of what you said about increasing the number of doctors but not necessarily in favour of what you said about how this could be done. The Howard method was mainly tertiary education cutbacks which would be in favour of expanding medical places in Australia.
Howard was very fond of one Union, wasn’t he? If he’d listened a little to some of the others he may not have lost his seat.
No, it just shows how Labor hackish some on PB are when they even disagree with CRIKEY… no wonder almost all media outlets get accused of Liberal bias…
pfft. I disagree with Keane (and other Crikey writers) on a number of issues. I agree with things written in The Oz as well.
My goodness!
‘Facebook pulls Obama kill poll’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/29/2699692.htm?section=justin
It says about 750 people had cast a vote, but doesn’t say how many of those registered an affirmative view.
It was just a suggestion of how it could be done quickly, and it would be a useful threat to hold over the Doctors’ Union. If we could train up 100,000 Australian doctors that would be good, but it would take 20 years. And of course if the object was to drive down the price of medical services by breaking the doctors’ cartel, there’d be less incentive to become a doctor. Maybe we could import 100,000 bright Indonesian high-school kids and train them up.
“Opposition leaders can’t ignore 2/3 of their backbench.”
The Liberal backbench is all talk. When push comes to shove, Turnbull will stare them down on the party room floor. Tuckey and some of the Nats will stick to their guns, but the rest of the angry horde will be peering intently at their shoes, fingernails, cufflinks, etc, when Turnbull asks is there anybody else who opposes negotiating on the ETS. They’re a pack of wimps, the lot of ’em.
139
That would make it far less of a “pinch the educated of the third world” scheme. If there is an oversupply of secondary students in Indonesia for the tertiary education/secondary education required positions then it would be supportable. More Australians should still be trained.
Psephos
Um, no it’s not.
If you double the number of doctors, you double the total Medicare bill to the Govt because more people go to doctors as they can get in more quickly and doctors are quicker to operate, do a Caesarian section etc if they don’t have as much work to do.
Your plan would *increase* the amount Medicare pays out to doctors in total.
There are only 670,000 doctors in India for 1 billion people. We have 60,000 for 22 million. Perhaps we’d better not take any more of theirs.
143
My point exactly.
Only if prices stay the same. If you increase the supply of any commodity, the price of that commodity will fall unless it is artificially propped up.
We will decide how many doctors are in this country and the circumstances in which they can overcharge.
Psephos
I bet you can’t find an example of reducing the total amount spent on a commodity by increasing the supply of the commodity.
A while ago I had an argument with a poster here about the governments decision to try out a government run insurance scheme that would compete with private insurance schemes. It’s called medicare select.
Dr Michael Vagg has read the whole medicare select insurance scheme proposal and has asked the same questions that I have asked.
This is the second opinion I’ve read from concerned doctors which detail how much this scheme would come close to the US health system.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2009/09/29/and-yet-more-questions-about-medicare-select/
Dio,
Tulips – Netherlands circa late 17th century 😀
It’s not the total amount that matters, it’s the cost per unit that matters. If I flood the market with eggs, the price of an egg will fall. More eggs will be sold, to be sure, but consumers will be getting more for less, which is the object of the exercise. If the cost of medical services fell, the taxpayer wouldn’t need to subsidise them so much because more people could afford them.