Essential Research: 59-41

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are approval ratings for the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader (both up solidly from six weeks ago), respondents’ self-perceptions of their employment and salary outlooks, Kim Beazley’s appointment as ambassador to the United States (54 per cent approve, 18 per cent disapprove) and Brendan Nelson’s appointment as ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg (49 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove).

Also:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis breakdown of federal polling results. Possum notes it shows up an intriguing divergence between city and country, which he says “could well be explained by the Coalition line on the ETS”. I might suggest that the largely forgotten Gippsland by-election of last June offered a premonition of this.

• About 200 local Liberal National Party members will vote for a candidate to succeed the outgoing Margaret May in the Gold Coast seat of McPherson on Saturday. Noses have been put out of the joint by the fact that the position was advertised on Thursday, one day before the closure of nominations, which has been universally interpreted as an attempt to assist Peter Dutton in his bid to move to the seat from notionally Labor Dickson. Glenn Milne in The Australian reports that May urged Dutton to nominate for the seat, somewhat deflating the notion that federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews might benefit from being her reported ally. Another of Dutton’s three preselection rivals is Minna Knight, a former staffer to Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop. Milne says Knight has the backing of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, whose husband Richard Stuckey withdrew from the race last week. Rounding out the field is Wayne Black, of whom nothing seems to be known. Despite earlier reports, twice-unsuccessful state Burleigh candidate Michael Hart has not nominated. Tanya Westthorp of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports local members are “threatening to revolt” if the state executive overturns the result of their ballot, as seems likely if Dutton doesn’t win. Andrew Fraser of The Australian notes the local party’s history of rebuffing imported candidates with reference to the 1998 preselection, when former Brisbane lord mayor Sallyanne Atkinson finished sixth in a field of 23.

• The ABC reports that Queensland’s conservatives will soon reach a decision as to whether their federal election candidates will stand as Liberals and Nationals, Liberal Nationals, or the “LNP”.

• AAP reports speculation that Jodie Campbell, federal Labor member for the ultra-marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, might not contest the next election. Campbell has been in the news recently after her partner was charged with assaulting her, and two of her staff members abruptly and mysteriously resigned. The AAP report notes she “has been moved from her much-televised seat in parliament behind the prime minister”. Geoff Lyons, electorate officer to Senator Helen Polley and an unsuccessful state candidate from 2002, is mentioned as a possible replacement.

• Michelle Grattan reports in The Age that former tennis star John Alexander, who made the final six in Saturday’s Bradfield preselection, is “volunteering” to take on Maxine McKew in Bennelong. Others who have been mentioned in the past are Melanie Howard and former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink, all of whom have been ruled out, and former rugby union international Brett Papworth.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Pfizer executive David Miles will challenge Bill Heffernan for the second position on the New South Wales Liberal Senate ticket. Incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells is expected to hold the top position. The third will depend on whether the state Liberal and Nationals can smooth over tensions and reach their usual joint ticket arrangement, in which Nationals Senator Fiona Nash would take the third position.

• Phillip Coorey also reports it is “rumoured” that Noel McCoy has nominated for preselection against Philip Ruddock in Berowra, despite announcing in late July that he would not do so.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Tony Mulder, police commander and Clarence council alderman, has emerged a surprise winner for Liberal preselection in the state division of Franklin. The Liberals are considered all but certain to increase their representation in the five-seat division from one seat to two at the election next March, with incumbent and party leader Will Hodgman assured of re-election. The party hierarchy is apparently keen that the second seat be won by Jacquie Petrusma, who was Family First’s Senate candidate in 2004 and 2007 and came close to winning a seat on the former occasion at the expense of Christine Milne of the Greens. Also on the ticket are Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Vanessa Goodwin was earlier considered to be in the box seat, but she has since found a place in the upper house after winning the Pembroke by-election on August 1.

• In a short but eventful article, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Mark Sheridan, neurosurgeon and director of surgical services at Liverpool Hospital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the outer-southwest Sydney state seat of Menai, held by Labor’s Alison Megarrity on a margin of 2.6 per cent. It is also “understood” that National Rugby League chief operating officer Graham Annesley has again nominated for Miranda in southern Sydney, where he fell 0.8 per cent short of defeating Barry Collier in 2007; that Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has again nominated for the north-west Sydney seat of Londonderry, where Labor’s Allan Shearan defeated him by 6.9 per cent in 2007; and Randwick mayor Bruce Notley-Smith has nominated for the inner eastern Sydney seat of Coogee, held for Labor by Paul Pearce on a margin of 7.3 per cent.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room is constructing what promises to be a superbly comprehensive guide to the federal election post by post.

• Keep following the action at my regularly updated posts on the Bradfield federal by-election and Willagee state by-election in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

983 thoughts on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  3. That paragraph doesn’t mention waterboarding, so it is unfair to use it as evidence that Hitchens doesn’t consider waterboarding torture.

    The context of what was happening in the US at the time the article was written with the ‘torture debate’ and is waterboarding/isn’t waterboarding torture is relevant.

  6. I didn’t see McInnes but she’s absolutely revolting, rude and stupid. Lapaglia wasn’t nearly as bad (but I’m biased coz I used to know him).

  8. The context of what was happening in the US at the time the article was written with the ‘torture debate’ and is waterboarding/isn’t waterboarding torture is relevant.

    So was whether or not sleep deprivation or playing loud music constituted torture. That paragraph doesn’t comment on whether those techniques count as torture either, even though we know they were used.

  12. Interesting how neither religious person on the pannel had the balls to say whether they personally believed homosexuality is a sin or not.

  13. Interesting how neither religious person on the pannel had the balls to say whether they personally believed homosexuality is a sin or not.

    Of course they can’t do that, because it will immediately show them to be intolerant bigots. At least Brennan acknowledged that discriminating against homosexuals completely contradicts the federal anti-discrimination act and equivalent state acts.

  14. The official position of the Catholic church is that homosexuality is a disorder, which can be cured, but is not intrinsically sinful. Homosexual acts, however, are sinful. Liberal Catholics like Brennan try to spin their way out of this but that’s the Church’s position, as stated many times by Cardinal Ratzinger, who is now the Pope. And the Pope, as we know, is always right.

  15. So was whether or not sleep deprivation or playing loud music constituted torture. That paragraph doesn’t comment on whether those techniques count as torture either, even though we know they were used.

    Yes this is true. But by far and away the greatest mainstream attention seemed to be given to waterboarding – certain people are still debating it.

    In any case, none of this changes the fact that people did interpret Hitchens’ statement as him considering waterboarding was not torture, and that he only came out strongly on the torture side after he experienced it for himself.

  17. Henderson really didn’t have much to say, but no matter, Waleed Aly and Christopher Hitchens could and did carry the show on their own.

  18. Waleed Aly and Christopher Hitchens could and did carry the show on their own.

    Just a show with those two would’ve been best.

    Brennan basically sat on the fence for every question other than the Polanski one.

  19. Dio, etc.

    I just finished watching Q&A. You were right about Ann Henderson. I even think Tony Jones may have quickly reached the same opinion.
    Waleed Aly impressed Hitchens I think – even though he was of Islamic faith.
    Hitchens was the absolute master of the night. And the quote of the evening was from him to the continually interrupting Henderson, “I will answer this question no matter how much it hurts you!”

  20. In response to one of the exchanges on Q & A, ‘have we had a leader who was an atheist?’

    I may be wrong here, but wasn’t/isn’t Bill Hayden an atheist?

    Just a hazy recollection

  24. Foxnew’s right wing lunatic and feral campaign against Obama where truth is optional, only serves to encourage the even more right lunatics.

    Obama Facebook Poll: “Should Obama Be Killed?” Pulled From Site, Secret Service Investigate

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/28/obama-facebook-poll-asks_n_301860.html

    Obama Coup Fantasized About By Right-Wing Fringe

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/30/obama-coup-fantasized-abo_n_304231.html

  25. Henry Ergas is an idiot. He goes in front of a senate committee to tell them how fantastic it is that the private sector is installing ADSL everywhere in the country. Meanwhile back in the real world there are thousands of people in metropolitan areas that can’t get ADSL and may or may not be able to get expensive broadband via Foxtel cable.

    That idiot should stop doing economic reports from the Liberal party, and instead take a walk around in the real world where Australian broadband speeds cost DOUBLE the OECD average for connections that are HALF as fast.

  28. 826

    The Greens and ALP are in agreement on where the money should and should not come from. The Government and not the Opposition. 5 is 5. The law no longer distinguishes between chambers.

  29. The Greens and ALP are in agreement on where the money should and should not come from.

    Which makes the last part of that report non-sensical. Why would this be an issue in Willagee which is likely to be a Labor v Greens contest?

  30. Which makes the last part of that report non-sensical. Why would this be an issue in Willagee which is likely to be a Labor v Greens contest?

    Preferences 🙂

  31. A few comments on Turnbull and ETS…

    One Liberal who believes Mr Turnbull’s leadership is now untenable because of the threat told the Herald the leader had put a noose around his neck and stood on a chair. ”All we have to do is kick it over,” he said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/back-me-or-sack-me-turnbull-20091001-geqw.html

    “He’s virtually said, well unless you agree with me you better get another leader,” Wilson Tuckey observed. When asked what he thought of the ultimatum, his answer was straightforward. “Well that leaves only one option, doesn’t it?”

    Not sure if Tuckey has an unexpectedly droll side. Possibly not.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/cup_of_java_fuels_malcolm_take_off/

  32. ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 1, 2009 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Henry Ergas is an idiot. He goes in front of a senate committee to tell them how fantastic it is that the private sector is installing ADSL everywhere in the country.

    But that is not the worst of it, some academic in Latrobe trying to tell us that local demand pushes up exchange rates. Where does lateline find these idiots. Putting up people sprouting nonsense just to have someone opposing government policy really does the ABC no credit at all.

  33. Scotty J at 760:

    The disparity between the Geraldton booths at the 2005 state election and the last federal election is massive, if i read them right. To a lesser extent the last state election was a significant difference too. So it is possible to do well in Geralton 4 Labor.

    Geraldton (state seat) has a pretty strange history. It was safe Labor until the early 90’s, when they got an absolute thwacking in a by-election not long before the same thing happened to the rest of Carmen Lawrence’s govt. Ever since then it’s been a pretty good Liberal seat, with the Labor member landing there because (a) the Lib MP got pinged for being corrupt just before the 2001 election and (b) One Nation got over 20%. It was one of the bundle of seats the Liberals should’ve got back in 2005 and actually did in 2008. Meanwhile, the federal seat’s been Tuckey country since Charles Court was premier (so he’s seen 9 premiers and 5 governments come and go in his time in O’Connor… jeez). They’re probably not all that comparable.

  34. Also, an off-topic question. I’ve been reading through some old threads… what happened to Juliem? She seems to have dropped off the radar lately.

  37. Also, an off-topic question. I’ve been reading through some old threads

    Geez, keen.

    … what happened to Juliem? She seems to have dropped off the radar lately.

    Didn’t she discover gaming? Don’t think we can compete with that. But she is missed.

  38. Turnbull’s call on Liberals to “back him or sack him” at least does him credit for having some backbone and demanding the division end. But for the Liberals as a whole it confirms they are in a hole:
    – it confirms that Liberal leadership tensions are true, not just a media beat up
    – if Turnbull succeeds, it still means that his hold on the leadership is weak
    – If Turnbull fails, it exposes that the majority of coalition members are against signing an ETS, and will be cained at the next election because of it.

    I know Antony says it is rarely profitable ot hold double dissolutions, but if the coalition reject the ETS in the Senate, thne I think all bets are off. Cilmate change and Workchoices were the two issues that most clearly distinguished Labor and Liberal campaigns at the last election. The government had a clear mandate to act on both.

  39. Tsunamis, earthquakes, typhoons, thousands dead and missing… make Turnbull’s troubles seem like a hill of beans.

  40. Sorry I missed Hitchens lat night, though not sorry I missed QandA, for all the reasons others have mentioned. I liked his comments in the SMH this morning:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/heathens-above-gods-harshest-critic-smokes-in-the-shower-20091001-ger1.html

    Personally I was brought up roman catholic and found leaving that religeon a painfull decision. But the more involved in it I got the more it became clear that it was both founded on lies and did more harm than most people realise. My views on religeon now are a bit like Cardinal’ Mannix’s views on communism: I love the believers, I hate the beliefs. It is good that people question existence and meaning, but institutionalised religeon is the wrong answer.

  42. Dont you think all this “leadership on the line” is the biggest beat-up. Turnbull will survive and the msm will laud his “victory”, “passed the test”. Then, Game on, I suppose!

  43. Andrew

    I don’t think it is a beat up, if he wins it is the end of the old guard and the liberal party can move on, if he fails, well the problem is not resolved, and they are not close to being a viable opposition from where they are at.

  44. fredn

    I think MT thought about it a lot when he was away. He just doesn’t need to put up with the rabble his parliamentary party has become. He is sufficiently wealthy and well connected to not have to worry about the consequences.
    For the sake of a good parliament I hope he does stare them down and deal with them or just walk away and let them implode electorily.
    A good end-game play.

  46. Socrates

    Without Waleed Aly it would have just been another rant against religion. The rest of the panel was a waste.

    I think Hitchens missed a point made by the women who said ( to paraphrase) the koran isn’t the problem, it’s the silly old farts who interpret it. Then I think the women missed Hitchen’s point, the silly old farts are making life a misery in non secular countries.

  49. Sorry to ignore BB’s post on the numerous Asian calamities. Of course they are all terrible. A notice just went around our office about the destruction in the Phillipines, which has affected people in our office there, and a collection is being taken up for them. Their story has almost been lost in the news of the earthquakes and tsunami. There have been so many disasters this week that it almost seems too overwhelming to consider them all.

  50. Hadn’t picked Waleed Aly for a Syd Barrett fan.

    Poor old Syd died a couple of years ago of pancreatic cancer joining (or leading) a host of other famous people with it like Patrick Swayze, Michael Landon, Don Dunstan, Steve Jobs and Kim Jong Il.

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