Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 55-45. This is “despite recent revelations of the Prime Minister’s expletive-laden tirade against factional bosses” which emerged after the poll was conducted. Both Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull have lost two points to “uncommitted” on preferred prime minister, Rudd now leading 65-17. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The poll also features questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme. For what it’s worth, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are his best in two months.

Meantime, this week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. Further questions find support for means testing the health insurance rebate, a slight majority against the previous government’s formula for private school funding, a slight majority finding their working hours have increased in the past 12 months, a slight tendency to credit/blame the Coalition over Labor with/for the past 25 years of economic reform, and strong support for the Australian Federal Police reopening investigations into the Balibo five deaths.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,517 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. [New world economic order takes shape at G20 – PITTSBURGH (Reuters) – The Group of 20 is set to become the premier coordinating body on global economic issues, reflecting a new world economic order in which emerging market countries like China are much more relevant, according to a draft communique.

    Following are some of the implications of the decisions:

    * The shifts reflect a recognition by the United States and Europe of a new global economic reality in which emerging market economies play a bigger role, especially in the aftermath of the global financial crisis that hurt developed economies more than developing ones.

    * By making the G20 the new global economic coordinator, countries are committing to maintaining cooperation even after the global financial upheaval and recession recede. The G20 was upgraded from a ministerial to a leaders-level forum only last year as the crisis deepened.

    * Adopting the G20 as the new economic steering committee raises questions over the whether or not the Group of Eight, which makes up the world’s industrial countries, will eventually be faded out. Diplomats said the G8 would continue to function but would focus on non-economic issues.

    * The agreements are big wins for U.S. President Barack Obama, hosting his first international summit. Since his election last year, he has pushed for changes in the global financial architecture to recognize the increasing economic clout of China and other emerging markets.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE58O1FB20090925

    Someone wrote about this years ago:

    [The order is
    Rapidly fadin’.
    And the first one now
    Will later be last
    For the times they are a-changin’.]

  3. [Reasonable point. But on the whole it’s better to have a forum to talk about things, than not to have one.]
    I wasn’t really trying to make a point against it. If you had to draw the line somewhere then right above these two sort of sells itself.

  4. Keith@1393:

    [I seriously hope that wasn’t directed at me]

    Certainly not. I post on a number of forums, many of which have members who do not have english as their first language, and some of whom have had a stroke or similar.

    Although I am mortified if I make a spelling or grammar mistake, that is just my approach to writing, drummed into me as a child, and perversely satisfying when you get it right. Lots of people find that strange, to put the kindest interpretation on what they say.

    Some either don’t care, and that is their decision, or just can’t spell for nuts. Many USians are unbelievable.

    Some USians with English as their only language, and who are staggeringly bright, mangle grammar and syntax in a way that would have distressed my beloved primary school teacher considerably. Spoonerisms abound.

    Now I’ll have to be very careful with everything I write for a week or two. The common result in a post like this is to put in a typo or spelling mistake!

  5. The G20 will last until the majority want to do something that goes against the interests of one of the major players. Then it will fall apart, or become irrelevant.

    That doesn’t make it a bad thing, though.

  10. Finns,

    I have this theory: for someone’s ABC, Long is the economist of choice (should I preface that with “Lib”?). If there is non-bad news it’ll talk to Ostler or someone else from a bank.

    This commentary is being brought to you by a Stonyfell Shiraz 2006.

  11. And in Daily Telegraph World:

    [THE Bulldogs are the latest team to fall victim of Parramatta’s brilliant end-of-season surge, slumping to a 22-12 loss in an epic final at a packed ANZ Stadium.
    Read More
    Sydney Confidential

    * More Syd Con

    The dresses ‘Flash’ Gordon rejected
    Brynne Gordon

    IF you think Brynne Gordon’s Brownlow dress was tacky and hideous – it was – check out the dresses she chose NOT to wear for the AFL’s night of nights.

    * Gallery: Brynne’s alternative dresses revealed

    * Holly Byrnes: A present no radio star ever wants
    * Little Chelsea: Beyonce’s mate captures the world
    * Mini’s grope: Board short mystery solved
    * Up there: ‘Old’ Kylie reminded of her age
    * Important women: Nicole mixes with royalty

    Fadi: Two-month murder plot
    clash

    POLICE allege two members of the Ibrahim clan conspired over more than two months to murder a known former associate in a revenge hit, a court’s heard.

    * Sydney case: Ibrahim friends support Fadi in court

    Coffee sex scam caught on camera
    Bikini Baristas

    9:44AM FIVE bikini-clad baristas charged customers to touch their breasts and buttocks at an espresso stand, police claim. See the undercover clip here.

    30 comments on this story
    It’s Whacked To the Rafters
    Packed to the Rafters

    AUSTRALIA’S favourite family drama Packed To The Rafters is under fire from angry fans who claim it has sunk to smut and tacky antics. Watch the saucy video

    52 comments on this story
    Critical toddler has brain surgery after fall
    Westmead Childrens Hospital

    4:20PM A TWO-year-old girl is undergoing neurosugery and remains in a critical condition after being rushed to a Sydney hospital by helicopter after falling out of bed.
    RIP Sweetie: Shana’s friends’ tears
    Shana Wilkinson missing for five days

    FRIENDS of a young trainee beautician have made an emotional Facebook tribute to her “beautiful life” as a man appeared in court charged with her murder.

    * Footy threat: Manager banned over teen footy brawl
    * Bad luck: Stuck in his car for 24 hours
    * NRL finals: Hand of God blesses Eels
    * Arrested: Man with mystery $12,000 in pants
    * Heartbreak: Two killed on Sydney’s deadly roads]

    Today the world order changed. Our PM had a big win in Pittsburgh. The G20 is triumphant.

    The Tele dutifully tells us that a man had a myster $10,000 in his pants.

    I rest my pants.

  14. Have you blokes been sniffing some of that dust storm or something?

    Of course Hayne wont get suspended. It was as accidental as the one in the first minute on Patten. It looks like being an Anywhere But Melbourne .v. Parra Grand Final. Go Parra!

    St.Kilda & Geelong tomorrow. I wonder who will get Girl Of The Match? 🙂

  19. i, too, rest my pants:

    [In another boost for countries such as China, the G20 unexpectedly reached a deal on reshaping the International Monetary Fund to shift more voting power to some developing countries. The deal recognized their growing economic clout and the vital role they must play in helping the world economy climb out of the the worst recession in generations.

    Currently, China wields 3.7pc of IMF votes compared with France’s 4.9pc, although the Chinese economy is now 50pc larger than that of France. ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/6229901/G20-to-police-new-world-economic-order.html

  20. Thank gawd bush is gone
    [Iran has admitted building a second uranium enrichment plant, the UN nuclear watchdog said Friday, sparking the fury of western leaders who suspect the Islamic Republic is closing on an atomic bomb.

    President Barack Obama of the United States, Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France were to demand an international inspection of the site before western powers hold nuclear talks with Iran on October 1, officials said.]
    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/new-iranian-enrichment-plant-sparks-western-fury-20090925-g6g9.html

  25. Hey Vera,

    With Carps retiring from WA Politics I note that a couple of local Greens on Twitter are hoping that there is another Adele in the wings – somehow William has pured some cold water over on the Willagee By-election thread – oh and not a Green in sight at the moment 🙂

  26. Shhhhhh! Frank! ferchrissake! It was like The green Weekly here earlier. Links to every green nutcase site going! My scrolling finger was getting cramp flicking past then all! 🙂

  27. vp, only came by recently and apart from being repeatedly gasted in my flabbers by the repartee, I’d have to ask what damage to U.S. soldiers are you speaking of?

  28. [Shhhhhh! Frank! ferchrissake! It was like The green Weekly here earlier. Links to every green nutcase site going! My scrolling finger was getting cramp flicking past then all! :)]

    I read them, BB has really upset the poor deluded dears 🙂

  29. Can’t find it on the web but here is:

    It’s good news week,
    Someone’s dropped a bomb somewhere,
    Contaminating atmosphere
    And blackening the sky,
    It’s good news week,
    Someones found a way to give,
    The rotting dead a will to live,
    Go on and never die.

    Have you heard the news?
    What did it say?
    Who’s won that race?
    What’s the weather like today?

    It’s good news week,
    Families shake the need for gold,
    By stimulating birth control,
    We’re wanting less to eat.

    It’s good news week,
    Doctors finding many ways,
    Of wrapping brains in metal trays,
    To keep us from the heat.

    It’s good news week,
    Someone’s dropped a bomb somewhere,
    Contaminating atmosphere
    And blackening the sky,
    It’s good news week,
    Someones found a way to give,
    The rotting dead a will to live,
    Go on and never die.

    Have you heard the news?
    What did it say?
    Who’s won that race?
    What’s the weather like today?
    (what’s the weather like today?)

    It’s good news week,
    Families shake the need for gold,
    By stimulating birth control,
    We’re wanting less to eat.

    It’s good news week,
    Doctors finding many ways,
    Of wrapping brains in metal trays,
    To keep us from the heat.

    To keep us from the heat.

    To keep us from the heat.

  30. Finns
    “In another boost for countries such as China, the G20 unexpectedly reached a deal on reshaping the International Monetary Fund to shift more voting power to some developing countries.”

    What’s this? Giving the shifty blighters a say? Lord Napier would choke on his gin and tonic at the Shanghai Club and have the boy bring him another large one, if he were alive today, eh what? What was the point of fighting those opium wars back in the glory days if we’re just going to give in to them now? he’d expostulate, ruddy faced.

  33. vera,

    I can’t give you a ref but there was an item on the news saying that the psychological damage done to soldiers in Afghanistan was worse than the physical and was not being recognized. There certainly was something about the British soldiers and I thought about the Americans as well (bad choice of “well”).

    I have a dear friend who was conscripted to VietNam. He gets it out of his system going to reunions. He has never broached, I have never asked. He and his family are friends from 1972.

  38. Lord Stern twists a US Senatorial arm or two:
    “The developed countries must now demonstrate they have the political will to reach a strong agreement in Copenhagen. In New York Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, outlined how his country will reduce its emissions by 25 per cent by 2020, compared with 1990. This was a positive example that few others matched.”

    That last sentence and what has happened this week in New York makes a mockery of those who would say ‘wait and see’, or worse, ‘wait and do nothing, ever’, or that we in Aus shouldn’t have a strong target now. The positive impact of Japan’s example has shown how important it is for the developed nations to get out there and commit befor December.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/big-step-forward-on-climate-treaty-but-obstacles-remain-20090924-g4o6.html

  39. Obama will probably go down in history as the American version of Clement Attlee – the man who faced up to the reality the the British Empire was over and got out of India, and instead of pursuing imperial grandeur did something about Britain’s social problems, ie, the National Health.

    (Note that this does NOT mean that I think G W Bush was Churchill!)

  41. BB… normally I would say “go-to bed” when ppl start posting like you are tonight.

    This time matey, I say go for it! and spin the wheel!

    WHATEVER YOU WANT, YOU SHOULD GRAB !… LOL 😀

  43. [Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, outlined how his country will reduce its emissions by 25 per cent by 2020, compared with 1990. This was a positive example that few others matched.]

    Not so difficult when you have a stable population and you already get a quarter of your power from nuclear. We have a rapidly rising population and are almost totally dependent on coal.

  45. With the Philly protest, don’t you think the police ought to go for the ones who are hiding their faces? And the press calls suicide bombers cowards!

  46. Psephos
    “We have a rapidly rising population and are almost totally dependent on coal.”

    Now, now, remember Rule 1 – No Exceptions. All the developed states could indulge in special pleading if they wished. That is exactly the sort of attitude that cannot be indulged in now. It was, if you remember Howard’s favourite line to avoid doing anything. But the job must be done collectively. So back to Rule 1.

  47. Kan do Kev!
    [For the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, this was the culmination of a nearly two-year campaign to persuade larger nations to support the broader body, which includes China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and other developing nations. He is believed to have won over the US President, Barack Obama, some weeks ago, and on Thursday he and the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, made presentations to the leaders’ dinner in Pittsburgh to seal the deal.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/g20-gives-the-developing-world-a-seat-at-the-top-table-20090925-g6bk.html

  48. Channel Ten: We’ll bring you the big news about tomorrows match next. Err, how about matches palyed tonight first? You are so not with Canberra viewers, that’s Sephos and me. wRONg again, Psephos does not do the TV thing.

  49. Psephos, I’d have thought getting a commitment from Japan was important. We all have to start somewhere.
    Moreover, I keep telling you, we’ve got more gas than you can poke a stick at, and particularly, you could switch the La Trobe valley from the filthy brown coal powered stations to gas without blinking, if the stupid energy companies stopped being such rent seekers. And get rid of Peter Batchelor, stupid, stupid, stupid, creature, wanting to export brown coal anywhere.

  50. [Channel Ten: We’ll bring you the big news about tomorrows match next. Err, how about matches palyed tonight first? You are so not with Canberra viewers, that’s Sephos and me. wRONg again, Psephos does not do the TV thing]

    I think you’ll find Ch 9 has the NRL Rights and at least in WA they screen them after Midnight on Friday & Saturday nights

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