The latest Morgan face-to-face poll gives Labor its best result since April: a 61-39 two-party lead, up from 58-42 last week. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent, the Coalition down one to 33.5 per cent, the Greens steady on 9.5 per cent and “others” back down to 4.5 per cent after a spike to 6 per cent last week. Some quick ones while I’m away:
• The New South Wales ALP has taken a possibly unprecedented move in banning state MPs from seeking federal preselection. Nathan Rees claims this is to prevent unnecessary by-elections – a believable motive for the state government – but is also being interpreted as a move to “stop state MP’s tarnishing the Rudd government”. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “rumours that the state ministers Joe Tripodi and Paul Lynch have been eyeing off the western suburbs seat of Fowler, while the former police minister Matt Brown has been linked with Gilmore”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a “growing sentiment” in the New South Wales Labor Party that Belinda Neal should retain preselection for Robertson, due to sympathy over her husband’s misbehaviour together with the fact that she has “worked hard” and “kept her head down” since the Iguana’s incident.
• Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Victorian Liberal chatter that “controversial Baillieu faction honcho” Bruce Atkinson faces a preselection threat in his Eastern Metropolitan upper house region. This threatens to boil over into an “open slather” that could equally threaten Atkinson’s first-term Eastern Metropolitan colleague Jan Kronberg.
[McGurk started out being referred to by the media as a wealthy businessman.]
No, he wasn’t wealthy. He had the trappings of wealth without the substance. He owed money to every shady lurk merchant in Sydney. He borrowed from one to pay off the other, upping the ante each time. He was all facade. There are a million types like him in every society. The kinds of guys who can soothe you into borrowing money from them or their clients and then they firebomb your home because you kick up a stink about the usurious repayments (or in the case of the surveyor, you just don’t fiddle the books quick enough for their liking).
People get nurdered for all kinds of reasons. My one-time solicitor was one of them. Except he wasn’t dodgy himself. It was his accountant who ordered the hit when the solicitor found out about how the accountant had been ripping him off. Right in his own home, with his wife and kid in the next room. McGurk’s death was probably more prosaic: he was hated by everyone who met him. That’s a good starting point for motive. Unfortunately it doesn’t narrow down the field by much.
Pies in this morning Insiders openly canvassed that Albo is implicated, as the Infrastructure Minister as well as the “federal politician” supposedly mentioned in the explosive tape.
This is even lower than Pies normally is. Methinks this “explosive tape” will explode in many other faces including Barrell O’Farrell, who this morning, again, showed he is not cutting through. He is just a blank page, a later date Steven Bradbury.
The Queensland LNP and their flying fox problems. All we need now is a push for Shane Knuth to become Opposition Leader and the issue will get sorted out by applying bounties. After Hopper’s performance last week he could easily run on a ticket of Deputy to Knuth and they could come out with both guns blazing. I heard Hopper interviewed by Radio Courier Mail’s Madonna King the other morning and Hopper was very unsure of anything much about flying foxes except that shooting is good.
http://publicpolity.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/if-it-moves-kill-it/
BB
You remind me of Edward Bunker, the hard-boiled crime novelist who was also Mr Blue in “Reservoir Dogs”.
Did anyone see piers and that other economist on Insiders this morning?
Apparently we avoided recession because of Howard’s policies… WHAT IS GOING ON?? Why does the ABC present such biased opinion? It’s idiotic!
Apparently Neo-Liberalism (ie Neo-conservatism) saved us… HA HA HA! Bollocks!
WHat jobs have penalty rates of 275% on weekends?
Apparently thats goin to become part of all the awards…
Forced to turn the “Insiders” gossip session off after 5 minutes this morning. Piers immediately began to spew forth about the NSW tape, which went far beyond even my limit of tolerance for egregious ratbaggery.
However, I do think it’s invaluable that the ABC brings in these “alternative viewpoints” for our consideration—after all, those poor muzzled Murdoch journos, who make up two out of the three member panel week after week, would otherwise only be able to express their views via their outlets in the largest media network in the world. And, of course, today’s panel was fair and balanced, just like Faux News on pay-tv, because the third panel member, Crabbe, is a featherweight humour writer for Fairfax media (the serious SMH analysis is left to Peter Hartcher and Philip Coorey).
People get nurdered for all kinds of reasons…..lol…..I know my kids nurder me, frequently at weekends….
Golly, almost forgot to thank BB for his illuminating posts on McGurk this morning.
[You remind me of Edward Bunker, the hard-boiled crime novelist who was also Mr Blue in “Reservoir Dogs”.]
No, no Mr. Blue here. I’ve just met a varied cross-section of people in my lifetime, some bad some good. When I met Timmy Bristow it was because I’d asked to be introduced by a mutual friend, an ex next-door neighbours of Tim’s, who had regaled me with hilarious stories about him. Upon meeting the man I realised he wasn’t very funny at all. Made my skin creep. My solicitor who was murdered did a great job for me (all strictly legal) and won a big case for a partner of mine (again, strictly legal with QCs and judges and all the proper hangers-on). I was shocked to hear of his death (it was after we had parted ways, amicably). I knew he was feisty, especially with lawyers from the other side, but apparently he got a little too feisty with his accountant when he found out he was being ripped off by said money man. There is a bunch of other lovelies I’ve run into from time to time who’ve tried to get me interested in mad schemes, none of which I’ve gone for, prefering to be able to put out the garbage on Sunday night without the risk of being wacked in my driveway. You could call me one of those “honest, poor and still alive” types. You’re always tempted to go for the quick return, but there’s no truer saying than “If it looks too good to be true, it’s dodgy.”
Sadly, my natural scepticism has not immunized me from common or garden rip-offs: sharp-suited, glad-handing, BMW driving superannutation “advisors”, Telstra contract scams (rip off the customer and then put a permanent message on your phone saying “We are experiencing higher than usual call volumes”) and the old favourite, buying anything from Bunnings because it appears to be a bargain. I have successfully resisted pyramid schemes (about one a fortnight at present… sad because you liked your neighbour until he tried to sign you up), holiday timeshare snake-oil, Nutrimetics, claadding cons (“We have selected just one house in your area…”), and the many variations of lawn-mowing franchise “opportunities”.
Some of my skepticism has rubbed off on my wife: she got out of Nutrimetics, gave up her Colonial-Mutual leveraged share scheme before she owed more than the shares were worth, and she changed supr funds to an industry-based one with no fees for the abovementioned sharp-suited urgers and confidence men.
Then again, I have two dogs… a lifetime investment if ever there was one, but at least one that gives back more than you put in. I’m a sucker for a stray cat. And I mow the old lady next door’s lawns for her, while her son makes a fortune working for Deutsch Bank and never visits except when he wants something (which he always gets).
But throwing in your lot with the likes of McGurk and Bristow is for others to take the risk on. I’ve never been able to understand what’s so special about a black Mercedes that all the nobodies and spivs who want to be somebodies have to have one. Interesting people to meet, and then move about as far away from as you can, running.
Finns
I agree on O’Farrell (partly). Why is he making so much noise about the tape?
[The New South Wales Opposition says the authorities should be breaking down doors to investigate the death of slain businessman Michael McGurk and allegations of a tape exposing government corruption.
Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell says the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) has been slow to act in cases that involve allegations of corruption linked to state MPs.]
Either there’s something on the tape worth investigating or there isn’t.
If there isn’t, he’s just shot himself in the foot like Turnbull and Hamilton-Smith.
If there is, it will come out and be investigated and speak for itself.
Diog,
You are spot on about O’Farrell gaining nothing by pontificating about the tape now. He went for the same injudicious response during Della Bosca’s demise—there was no need for an Opp. Leader to go within cooee of discussing Della when the media were already locked into a feeding frenzy. O’ Farrell just had to throw his useless and senseless spin into the media maelstrom.
In case anyone missed it, last night Mr Rudd went to the football:
O’Farrell is a boring windbag, with no policies! But according to the media, this man will magically revitalise New South Wales in 2011.
[Did anyone see piers and that other economist on Insiders this morning?
Apparently we avoided recession because of Howard’s policies… WHAT IS GOING ON?? Why does the ABC present such biased opinion? It’s idiotic!
Apparently Neo-Liberalism (ie Neo-conservatism) saved us… HA HA HA! Bollocks!]
And Cassidy wonders why Rudd shuns his program?
The German elections are starting to heat up with the fallout from last week’s state elections being felt and responded to in various ways.
[German politics has been shaken up by last Sunday’s state elections. With Merkel’s conservative CDU having seen a drop in support, analysts now expect federal elections on Sept. 27 to be close. And a key ally of the chancellor has resigned as governor of Thuringia. Reactions on Friday varied, with some voicing regret while others speculate about what the future holds.
The repercussions of Sunday’s elections in several German states, which saw Chancellor Angela Merkels conservatives lose votes, are still being felt. On Thursday the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in Thuringia, Dieter Althaus, resigned. Althaus, who is considered one of Merkel’s closest political allies, stepped downas a result of disappointing results in last Sunday’s election.
When the votes were tallied it became clear that the CDU, which had formerly had an absolute majority in the state, would need to find a coalition partner. Its share of the Thuringia vote has dropped by 11.8 points to 31.2 percent. And the most realistic option for the CDU is to form an alliance with the SPD, mirroring the federal government in Berlin which is a right-left grand coalition between the two parties.]
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,647037,00.html
66
Where the article says Governor it means Minister-President (the German Equivalent of Premier) but translates it as Governor for the benefit of American readers.
Steve, very interesting!
Supposedly Merkel was going to win that election in a cakewalk and the SDP would be reduced to a rabble.
Evan 14, I think that the slowness in introducing her stimulus packages is going to hurt her in the election but whether enough to throw her out is yet to be seen but her party took a huge hit last week.
It strikes me that the School Signs, the Della Bosca and now the McGurk affairs are both still symptomatic of the Silver Bullet fantasy the Libs have: they don’t have to do any policy work, just find the fatal weakness in Labor to polish them off. It even extends to Joe Hockey’s “debt and deficit” mantra, mired (as it is) in past criticisms of Labor. It’s always either trying to transfer outdated snarks from the past, or invent short-cuts to power.
Glen Milne is even running the “Labor is favouring marginal Labor seats” schtik, by quoting geat slabs of “research” done by some newbie economic guru from the Liberal caucus. This neglects to consider that inner-city Labor electorates, and those on the urban peripheries, are most likely to be disadvantaged and thus need stimulus more than well-heeled Lib electorates in the same areas. Rural seats are almost a dead-heat (although the article manages to pad out a further paragraph by noting that Labor rural electorates receive about 1% more, on average, than Coalition rural electorates… big deal). And if all else fails there’s the old chestnut: Glen feels “something in the air” to so with Gillard and “blow-outs” and something or other else. Start shakin’, Kevin Rudd.
Today, Pies all but suggested that someone in Labor ordered a hit on McGirk. It really does smack of desperation. The “scandals” are getting wierder and wierder. Watching the Insiders today deciding the rules governing which sex scandal qualifies as printable (and which as strictly private) was amusing. The longer they try the short cut, the equivalent of doubling-up on your bet at the roulette table (“Black has to come up sometime soon!”) the less opportunity they have to convince the public before the election that they are a serious alternative to Labor. Although it’s irritating to see the lengths to which they will go to steal the prize while (they hope) no-one’s looking, in one way I’m pretty happy that they’re doing it this way. The concentration is all on the noise part of the channel, while the signal is coming out loud and clear.
Incidentally, today’s Insiders saw Barrie Cassidy shut Pies up three or four times, peremptorily. This has been happening in recent times whenever Pies trie on one of his maniac theories. Does anyone get the feeling that Barrie is sick of him, and that perhaps Pies is being foisted on him by management very much against his will?
[they don’t have to do any policy work,]
The sad thing is, in NSW at least, the Liberal’s don’t have to do anything and they’ll still get in.
BB
I didn’t see it but it might have been that Barry wasn’t too keen on Pies getting the ABC sued for defamation. I wonder if they have a “delay” on the broadcast like they do on talk-back radio so they can bleep out possible slander. The comment about Albo must have been getting close.
The ABC can find more rational conservatives than Ackermann and Bolt.
What about Gerard Henderson, who always used to be a guest on INSIDERS?
The program is unwatchable for me, so long as it remains a vehicle for Rudd bashing and Liberal Party propoganda!
If anyone likes pretty graphics with their polling questions, check this out.
http://service.tagesschau.de/infografik/deutschlandtrend/dt08/index.shtml?2009_09
[Does anyone get the feeling that Barrie is sick of him, and that perhaps Pies is being foisted on him by management very much against his will?]
Yes, yes andYES.
In Pies’ eyes Kev is responsible for everything nasty. We laughed at him counting out the broken promises on his fingers. I reckon Insider’s reputation goes further into freefall with that bloke on it and we know what his columns will be this week and the week after and the week after. What a pity he’s not on the Morgoth retrenchment lists.
And Paul Kelly gives a sort-of compliment to the Govt. but then tells the Libs how theyl can next year. No doubt we’ll be hearing more of Kelly’s advice from them.
Kev often goes to the Brissie footy matches (AFL as well has NRL) His excitement last night was good to see – not much boring there. And what a finish!! Better than my lot last week.
What do people think that an extension of the Federal preselection ban to state preselections would have on the NSW ALP? Good or bad?
[ Incidentally, today’s Insiders saw Barrie Cassidy shut Pies up three or four times, peremptorily. This has been happening in recent times whenever Pies trie on one of his maniac theories. Does anyone get the feeling that Barrie is sick of him, and that perhaps Pies is being foisted on him by management very much against his will? ]
I got that impression, BB. In contrast to some earlier programs, Cassidy seemed to go out of his way to present the Government’s side of various issues -or, at least, to say that there was an alternative view. Maybe his old boss Bob Hawke has had a quiet word? Ackerman is a bloated joke and, hopefully, his ABC career will be short-lived.
Any program that “features” Porky Piers has no business claiming to be balanced – no matter how far to the left his opposing panellist may be.
Necessary this time I think Tom. There are couple who would be OK but not in 2010.
Got my fingers crossed that Tripodi and Obeid will go down in a heap.
I think Annabel Crabb mentioned on Insiders that Turnbull will be HEAVILY linking NSW to Federal election so let’s get ready for the next Lib scare campaign. The recent ones haven’t been working too well.
Having difficulty seeing why Morgan Poll went up so much unless Turnbull is putting off more voters after Brendan’s outburst last week.
Don’t think the newspoll will be the same. Murdoch press has been kicking up a storm in the past week about the Govt.
79
I was talking about state preselections for 2011. A complete clean-out.
Turnbull and G Milne will be spewing over this.
Job Ads Surge in August
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/job-ads-surge-in-august-20090906-fcie.html
BH,
Maybe the poll figures have moved further against the Libs because the anti Turnbull vote is now crystallising into anti Lib vote. It’s like the voters are saying “We told you we don’t like him. Why is he still here?”.
Tom 80 – difficult I think. Is there anybody fighting to get preselected against a sitting member? Haven’t heard of any yet.
[I think Annabel Crabb mentioned on Insiders that Turnbull will be HEAVILY linking NSW to Federal election so let’s get ready for the next Lib scare campaign.]
Won’t do them any good. If people want Rudd they will vote for him no matter what is happening in the state.
83
If they were all opened up then there would be a scramble for the safe seats. It would liven things up the question is would it help the ALP?
[If they were all opened up then there would be a scramble for the safe seats. It would liven things up the question is would it help the ALP?]
No. It means the last year or so of the Labor Government would just be open factional warfare and stacking in every branch.
[It means the last year or so of the Labor Government would just be open factional warfare and stacking in every branch.]
And that’s the last thing they need now. Better to put their heads down and try to do something positive.
Della Bosca’s ‘100 day’ list is enough to cause more newspaper carryon this week. Who leaked that?!!
GG
Great to see Rudd enjoy the result so much last night. 😀
Since when has Mike Fitzpatrick been a Lions supporter?
It would not really help them with 2011 but 2015 and 2019? Less chance of a guilty party campaign.
Diogs,
I think Fitzy is Chairman of the AFL. Proves that Carlton supporters are great sports and known widely for their humility. All that polite applause for your opponents is good for the soul.
[All that polite applause for your opponents is good for the soul.]
A man of character, GG with poor taste in footy teams. lol. Always wished he’d played for my team tho.
GG
Fitzy is a class act. I’m pretty sure he’s a Rhodes scholar. Not many footballers could match intellect with Rudd.
[Don’t think the newspoll will be the same. Murdoch press has been kicking up a storm in the past week about the Govt]
Cuppa, according to Possum’s Pollytrend we are at another turning point. If the next Newspoll does break against the Liberals then they are in serious trouble as we could expect an extended rise for a while. I seem to recall that last September/October was when Labor began a huge rise that lasted until just before this year’s budget.
Link:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/30/introducing-pollytrend/
Steve – the Libs have been making a lot of noise about schools’ overspend, no real reason to have the stimulus, etc. etc. Just wondering if it will have an effect this time.
People chatter on Insiders was that they expected interest would have to rise, stimulus was OK so far, no real disgruntlement.
Living in rural areas makes it difficult to know what people really think because of the conservative influence and that’s why I find the comments on PB valuable and especially those of William Possum and Antony.
BH, we’ll find out Monday night but I’d be suprised if anyone expects record low interest rates not to drift up as growth returns to the economy. That’s the way it has always been. The housing spend has been adjusted to allow for more schools to be fixed at the same cost so I can’t see what the Libs have got to make them more electable than last fortnight.
[… so I can’t see what the Libs have got to make them more electable than last fortnight.]
John Della Bosca bonked a young girl and upset our Belinda. Julia’s schools program was too successful. Something about signs. Something else about Youth Allowance. There might be winners and losers from the award’s rejig. Labor hired a hitman to wipe out a scumbag mate. Malcolm Turnbull can’t spell narcissist. Interest rates might go up by the end of the year. All government policies have turned into fiascos. The Recovery will be Rudd’s greatest test. And Glen Milne has sensed “something in the air” lately.
What more do you want?
I wonder what is likely to happen to the newspaper business in this market over the coming years. My family subscribes to The Weekend Oz, which I enjoy for the sudoku, but otherwise never look at. Mostly it is thrown out with hardly a page turned. What strikes me about it is the huge editorial expense involved in producing the paper, complete with inserts and magazines. You could say something similar about the West Australian, which is now a double-edition monster that also goes mostly unread in our household, while the News Ltd Sunday Times is also an unreadable heavyweight.
The production costs must be extremely high, and yet the end result is almost completely ephemeral and instantly disposable. If this market is about curiosity and information, it is a market category that is now super-saturated. It is a crazy kind of business model. No wonder the publishers resort to scandal, sensation and provocation to maintain readers’ curiosity.
In my case, however, the tactics don’t work. I so mistrust the editorial slant and content of the papers that I seldom ever read them and have almost no reason to buy them. The biggest cost to a newspaper customer is not the expense of the paper, it is the time taken to read it. And if readership falls, so will the advertising market. I think it is time the whole media industry re-thought its business model and tried to develop products that are low-cost to produce and have much higher utility for the buyer.
BB said it all Steve.
[which is now a double-edition monster that also goes mostly unread]
One of the reasons I initially stopped buying Saturday papers – too much of it went straight to the wastebin.
Lots of soft, sincere looking people advertising their wares in the latest “Australian” ad, ending with a nice piccie of Phillip Adams to lure all we centre/lefties back I think. It’s been running a lot of payTV – is it running on free to air?
Morgoth must be really hurting to be advertising like that.
Yes, BH. I’m sure you are right: The Oz must be draining cash in a serious way. The trouble with Phillip Adams is we’ve heard it all before, as indeed we have on nearly every other topic.
The whole paper – from finance to public affairs to sport and the ‘features’ is just opinion. It is tiresome. Why would anyone spend time – and even scarcer time – to ingest and contemplate the air-headed nonsense that passes for intelligent comment in the print media. The publishers obviously have a very low opinion of their readers.