Essential Research: 60-40

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.

Couple of other things:

• Sandringham MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, Thompson defeated “Baillieu faction hopeful” Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.

• The Camden Advertiser reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for Macarthur, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of Camden (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and Wollondilly (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.

• The Age reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would “enliven the democratic process”, and are ”something the party should look at”.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate has Labor’s lead at 57.2-42.8.

• Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the progressively updated dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

Comments Page 34 of 37
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  1. [and when federal Labor begins to go downhill the Labor vote will drop.]
    No sign of this happening before the next Federal election. And you are discounting the benefit of being a high profile minister which Tanner didn’t enjoy at the last election.

  2. 1651

    The older the current government gets the likelier the defeat of Tanner is. The ALP also faces trouble on two fronts because it is in danger from both rising Green vote and a rising Lib vote (all be it diluted by preference leak).

  3. [because it is in danger from both rising Green vote ]
    A bit of supposition here. The Greens haven’t been tested against an incumbent Federal Labor government. There is no evidence that the Green vote will increase in such circumstances.

  4. 1653

    The polls have been showing a rise in the Green vote since the election.

    The Greens did quite well the first time against the incumbent ALP state government.

  5. I just had a look at the Greens blogs @ http://greensmps.org.au/blog expecting to see lively discussion about such things as which Labor ministers to target. But no, the place is dead as a Dodo.
    Guess it’s more fun to do that sort of stuff in the face of all the “Labor hacks” at PB.

  6. ttfab….”The ALP also faces trouble on two fronts because it is in danger from both rising Green vote and a rising Lib vote …”

    Wot are you smoking!

  7. Geez

    Can we stop this crud about Tanner losing Melbourne. He received 49.51% of the PRIMARY vote.

    To put it another way he got 43,363 votes, the Greens got 19,967. 😛

  8. [The polls have been showing a rise in the Green vote since the election.]
    No, just movement within the margin of error.
    [The Greens did quite well the first time against the incumbent ALP state government.]
    Very different situation.

  9. 1656

    When the Green vote goes up it cuts Tanner`s margin and when the Lib vote goes up it cuts Tanner`s margin (but by a lesser amount because some Lib voters preference the ALP).

  10. Well, there are some views that can be tested by polls, but can only be proved by the election next year.

    I do think it’s a bit rough to be wishing on the electoral demise of Lindsay Tanner, of all people…

  12. [No sign of this happening before the next Federal election. And you are discounting the benefit of being a high profile minister which Tanner didn’t enjoy at the last election.]

    I don’t think it will happen before the next election, no. And a high profile minister may be good in good times, but can work against them in bad times.

    [The Greens haven’t been tested against an incumbent Federal Labor government. There is no evidence that the Green vote will increase in such circumstances.]

    Is NSW enough evidence that a tired incumbent ALP government makes the Green vote surge? 😀 😀 😀

  13. 1657

    This is not first past the post. It is the 2 candidate preferred that counts when it comes to electing an MP. Tanners primary may well go down requiring more preferences which Tanner has a smaller supply of because he doesn`t get Green preferences because they are not distributed in Melbourne.

  14. [A personal vote never counts for more than a couple of percent. Labor won Melbourne by 4% against the Greens after preferences, and when federal Labor begins to go downhill the Labor vote will drop.]

    So your joining Milne, pushing those little pieces of paper around looking for the reason why labor will fail (bushfire bill writes great posts).

    Bob1234 your assuming that when labors popularity falls the electorate will go to the left. We will see. My own view is labor is safe, the Liberals will not be able to get their act together and the electorate will not go further to the left.

    [This seems to be the pattern. Labor rusteds would rather get in to bed with the extremist-right Liberals than their traditional home, the left, now occupied by the Greens. How very sad for them – a complete and utter loss of morals. Be it on their conscience and on their head.]

    I think your kidding yourself if you believe labors natural place is the left. Psepho admits he is a labor hack and in my view he is too far to the right, thats ok he is balanced by labor hacks that are too far to the left.

    A large part of labors vote comes from the conservative middle class. Like it or not Labor wants to govern, they need over 50% of the vote to do so. The greens can afford to go after one demographic, labor can’t.

    And just what are the greens going to do about it, give there preferences to the Liberals?

    I have a question, on Q and A the other night I watched Bill Heffernan put a climate change denialist in his place with a very short and blunt reply. Something along the line, “I’m not interested in that nonsense, we have a problem, the debate should be about what we are going to do about it”. Why aren’t we seeing that from the greens, instead of Brown calling the ETS a failure even before it has been put in place.

  17. [I do think it’s a bit rough to be wishing on the electoral demise of Lindsay Tanner, of all people…]

    I actually like Tanner – and he comes from Labor’s left – or what’s left of it anyway.

    I think Tanner should move to one of Labor’s traditional working-class stronghold electorates that register a <5% Green vote. And if Labor is smart, they’ll do just that.

  18. [hmm? a rising Green and a rising Liberal vote at the same time? dosen’t make much sense to me.]

    No, that’s because you’re a Labor hack. Just look at the last WA state election, or NSW polling.

    It’s perfectly logical that the Liberal and Green vote rises when Labor popularity plummets.

  19. 1660

    I don`t have anything against Tanner specifically. He just holds the seat that the Greens have the best chance in.

    1661

    I predict that the Green vote will increase and the Lib vote decrease at the next election making the Greens place in the 2CP safer.

  20. [Bob1234 your assuming that when labors popularity falls the electorate will go to the left. ]

    Rubbish. I never said that. The vote will split.

  21. [Tanner has a smaller supply of because he doesn`t get Green preferences because they are not distributed in Melbourne.]

    I bet someone actually knows the distribution of Liberal preferences. I agree, there is a real risk that the Liberals will be reduced to distributing preferences.

    Perhaps Labor should be going after Liberal preferences?

  23. Most Greens would be more than happy if the ALP swapped Tanner and Martin Ferguson and then the Greens knock out Ferguson. But unfortunately they won`t do that.

  24. [I think your kidding yourself if you believe labors natural place is the left.]

    Oh how I wish I lived in the 1970s. A Dunstan state government and a Whitlam federal government. I’d have proudly put Labor 1 in both cases.

  26. [Your abusive posts have no affect on me, you wanker]

    If you only want to reply to the Labor hack bit and ignore the rest of the post then you’re free to do so, but it only shows that i’m right and you’re wrong 🙂

  28. [The Greens have more chance of winning Kennedy than Melbourne.]

    With the Greens on a vote of 3.2% in Kennedy and 22.8% in Melbourne (and 45.3% after prefs), how do you come to that conclusion?

  30. [Unless the Greens get a primary vote in Melbourne with a big fat “3? in front of it, they ain’t gonna be winning anything.]

    Rubbish again. The numbers can fall for eg:

    Labor 43%
    Greens 28%
    Liberals 26%
    Others 3%

    The Greens would win it.

  31. [I predict that the Green vote will increase and the Lib vote decrease at the next election making the Greens place in the 2CP safer.]

    You might be right, the Libs are making right royal fools of themselves, but this voter voted green in the senate last election. If the ETS doesn’t get through the senate I will be voting Labor. I Know a sample of one is worth nothing.

    I predict Tanners personal vote will rise, he will pick up the thinking Liberal vote.

  34. When Obama and Kev agree on a target less than 25% at Copenhagen and the Greens vote it down in the senate they might be lucky to have any supporters left!
    tanner could get 70% of the vote! 😉

  35. 17.44% of Liberal preferences went to Tanner. Making it impossible for him to lose.

    If the Greens get Labor, LNP and independent preferences in Kennedy the could beat Bob Katter. 😛

  36. [You might be right, the Libs are making right royal fools of themselves, but this voter voted green in the senate last election. If the ETS doesn’t get through the senate I will be voting Labor]

    Then you’re an idiot. We had the ETS discussion. The Greens won. The Greens would be stupid to flee their traditional base and rubber stamp the Labor government ETS legislation which they believe doesn’t go far enough. THEY DON’T HAVE THE NUMBERS. It’s all academic. When the Greens do hold the balance of power, I expect them to do what Xenophon did with the stimulus and hold out until the final vote in order to extract maximum concessions from the government, then vote for it. Any less would be total and utter capitulation, which THEN wouldn’t deserve votes from the people.

  39. bob1234
    In which decade are you postulating your numbers? Labor is currently polling better than the 2007 election and I don’t see why Tanner would be below his first preference figure from 2007.

    Hypothetically Humphry B Bear could win any nominated seat but that doesn’t make it at all probable.

  40. Bob – you may be surprised to learn that Don Dunstan was not the leftie you think he was.

    He did away with 6 pm closing in Pubs, opened up the Arts world and restaurants, went a long way to changing the appalling attitude towards the gay community, but really was quite conservative in many ways.

    After years of Tom Playford he was a refreshing ray of sunshine but many South Aussies hated him including many of my friends and rellies.

    And I knew him personally.

  42. [you may be surprised to learn that Don Dunstan was not the leftie you think he was.

    He did away with 6 pm closing in Pubs, opened up the Arts world and restaurants, went a long way to changing the appalling attitude towards the gay community, but really was quite conservative in many ways.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Dunstan

    [A reformist, Dunstan brought profound change to South Australian society. His progressive reign saw Aboriginal land rights recognised, homosexuality decriminalised, the first female judge appointed, enacted consumer protection laws, relaxed censorship and drinking laws, created a ministry for the environment, enacted anti-discrimination legislation, and implemented electoral reforms such as the overhaul of the upper house of parliament, lowered the voting age to 18, and enacted universal suffrage. He established Rundle Mall, and encouraged a flourishing of the arts, with support for the Adelaide Festival Centre, the State Theatre Company, and the establishment of the South Australian Film Corporation. Federally he assisted in the abolition of the White Australia Policy.]

    Leftie, progressive, sure they aren’t technically the same but they are very similar. Dunstan was arguably the most progressive Labor leader ever. Any argument otherwise is pure rubbish.

    If only we had Labor leaders like Dunstan today.

  43. [Oh how I wish I lived in the 1970s. A Dunstan state government and a Whitlam federal government. I’d have proudly put Labor 1 in both cases.]

    Whitlam moved Labor back to the center after their failed flirtation with extreme left positions that split the party.

    In my view both political parties where further to the left in the 70’s, you need to look no further than the different treatment the Vietnam boat people received. The treatment was much more reasonable and had bi party support.

    On that issue I find the current behavior unacceptable, but Labor’s is more reasonable than the Liberals. To Bob Brown credit, he was the only party leader that said something sensible on the issue. But that is now, not then.

  44. And if Dunstan were alive today and PM (whoa, talk about hypotheticals), you can bet your bottom dollar we’d see a massive wave of reforms that Rudd Labor is too chicken shit to implement.

    Dunstan was proof that progressivism is not an electoral liability.

  45. They could fall like that Bob – but the pref flows would be different because some of the votes that go from ALP-to-Lib won’t preference the Greens second in a pink fit – which adds to the 13 odd percent of Lib voters that currently exist which can’t bring themselves to do it either.

    That’s apart from the nonsense of Labor getting a primary less than 45 in a seat like Melbourne.

    The demographics in places like Melbourne are certainly changing – but they arent running one way in favor of the Greens you know.

    Tanner is sitting on a primary vote of over 49% – if the Greens think they’re a realistic chance of winning Melbourne (and as much I like Adam Bandt) any time soon, they are off with the fairies.

  46. [I already said it won’t happen at the next election as Labor is polling well.]
    Well so much could happen before the 2013 election, it’s pointless speculating on the future of an individual seat.

    How would Tanner’s Labor replacement go against a Green Party candidate without Brown as Greens leader in 2013 or 2016? Utterly unpredictable and a pointless conversation.

  47. 1686

    This kind of arrogance from bob

    [Then you’re an idiot. We had the ETS discussion. The Greens won.]

    is what causes the ALP/Green flame wars.

    We hacks do try and play nicely, but when we do, bob kicks sand in our faces.

  49. [Whitlam moved Labor back to the center after their failed flirtation with extreme left positions that split the party.]

    That’s oversimplistic. Whitlam moved Labor from the left to the centre/centre-left economically. Socially, Whitlam moved Labor to the left. Much like me really.

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