Essential Research: 60-40

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.

Couple of other things:

• Sandringham MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, Thompson defeated “Baillieu faction hopeful” Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.

• The Camden Advertiser reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for Macarthur, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of Camden (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and Wollondilly (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.

• The Age reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would “enliven the democratic process”, and are ”something the party should look at”.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate has Labor’s lead at 57.2-42.8.

• Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the progressively updated dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 thoughts on “Essential Research: 60-40”

Comments Page 2 of 37
1 2 3 … 37

  4. BH @ 49, I’ve got to say I almost wet myself laughing about the Kev and Therese Austen thing being presented pictorially with Kev’s head stuck on Colin Firth’s body.
    It’s pretty obvious they’ve worked out a relationship that works for them, and obviously Therese is no shrinking violet. Good on them, I say. That Women’s Weekly is becoming a collector’s item and highly sort after because of this “coverage”, I find just hilarious.

  7. A great Australian artist Geoffrey Tozer passed away. Unfortunately, without much recognition. AS Paul Keating says:

    “Had he been a boneheaded footballer who was biffing fellow players and chasing women down hotel corridors late at night he would have probably had a premium on his career,” Keating observes. “But to have been among one of a handful of the world’s greatest pianists with all of that learning and comprehension was not quite up to it.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25985836-16947,00.html

    Just a small glimpse of his talent:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfppZde84ys

  9. I agree with Triton, Shows On. I reckon Ally Moore is one of the coolest, best prepared, utterly professional, really smart interviewers on the ABC. I don’t want to diss Leigh Sales, however, I’ve heard Ally Moore operate across both TV and radio extremely competently. Haven’t heard Leigh Sales do this or demonstrate knowledge across the range of subjects Ally does.

  11. “PM & Roxon just announced a new GP superclinic for Cockburn. I’m sure it’s painful and embarrassing, but does it need a whole superclinic??”

    Must be all the leaks…

  13. William – PM & Roxon just announced a new GP superclinic for Cockburn. I’m sure it’s painful and embarrassing, but does it need a whole superclinic??

    Superb. My close friend, drinking partner, companion and occasional tolerator of blogging, has, off her own bat, subscribed to Crikey partly because of Keane. Now I see why she has done so.
    Oh, as a reward for subscribing, she got several DVD’s and a couple of books, the DVD’s including “Australian Parrots”, “The Proposition”, “Top Gear Tour the US”,”101 Classical Pieces You Shoüld Hear Before You Die” and something about penis enlargement (made up the last one)
    🙂
    —————-
    Diogenes – *quietly and aside from topic, not wanting to elicit responses*. Agree with your further analysis of the Jim Jones episode today – these are the people cults and religions feed off – there are hopefully fewer in the modern age of education, at least in the West, but … (end of off-topic comment from last thread, totally)

  14. OK, this is 60-40. the usual meme is that Essential Research and Morgan favour the ALP; newspoll and galaxy less so.

    Has anyone tried to work out why? What is different about the methodologies that leads to Essential and Morgan tending to have a higher ALP 2PP than Newspoll?

    Didn’t possum do a graph of all of them trying to see if there was abias of sorts?

  16. Jennifer Hawkins, the thinking man’s crumpet.

    I don’t want to get into a rate the models thing, but I can’t stand Hawkins. Each time I see her on that travel show on 7, I hit channel change button on the remote

  20. Just checked out what’s on 4 corners tonight

    We investigate the conspiracy theories that have grown up around the London bombings of 2005. Why won’t people accept the official version of events?

    Geez, why do people believe any conspiracy theories?
    Might have to find something else to do.

  22. HSO – agreed. Hard to believe something about a pollie and his wife could be the ‘in’ thing at the moment. Betcha that People Skills is seething and green with envy that the despised Rudd is getting more good pubicity. Likening Kev to the magnificent MR DARCY would have Chrissie Pyne rolling around the floor with griping pains too.

    I read a friend’s copy and spent my dough on the Footy Record for my grandson instead. The WW has so many ads to wade through before you find any reasonable pieces to read.

    Must admit that I found Therese’s story of her work and social work worth reading about. She looks as though she’d be good fun too. Probably why she and Julia G get on so well.

  25. Kevin Rudd has come third behind Jennifer Hawkins and Hugh Jackman as the one Aussies would most like to have a beer with!

    Glenn Milne’s next story – ‘I told y’all the honeymoon’s over’

    Wish BB would email his comment about Milne’s story to Milne himself or to his editor.

  26. BH,

    You might be on to something there. Rudd is very popular with women. He’s very relaxed around assertive women like Therese and Gillard. He is also very supportive of women in his cabinet e.g. Roxon, Wong et al.

    His reaction to the Jodie Campbell bashing was forthright and empathetic. There was no doubt about his total support for a colleague. There was no doubt his disgust at violence against women.

    I’m the father of several women and there is no doubt that Rudd is the stud muffin of politics where I live.

  28. GG, I’ve been thinking since late today that Tim Holding may be injured. According to reports I’ve heard this evening, he phoned his father last night, but the signal was too weak for anything else. He’s said to be a very fit person who prepares well for everything, which is why I’m beginning to think, injured. He didn’t go to the summit because conditions were too dangerous. It’s awful to think of someone possibly injured and unable to reach help in such dreadful conditions.

  30. BH @ 71, I reckon it would be Malcolm Turnbull who would be seething with envy and jealousy. Does anyone know whether the Libs. take any notice of Essential polling? I’m guessing they wouldn’t/couldn’t or they’d all be committing hari kiri like the Syrian Suicide Squad at the end of “Life of Brian”.

  31. Given the constant 60/40 ascendancy of Rudd, a reminder along the lines of the one Ross Gittens was taking a week or two ago is appropriate about Rudd not using his political capital to make good things happen. Climate.

    Given his luxurious political position, he should be pushing harder on what he knows must be done – leading us and the world towards Copenhagen – an opportunity in the grand left tradition.

    Especially when the changes to climate are already causing the effects long predicted, and the UN is forced to address actually dealing with this happening thing, now. For example the countries around the Himalayas, who I think are meeting this week too in some panic.

    The potential for conflict seems real to me at this point, unless real support is provided by richer nations, and that wil cost heaps. O am I going too far?:

    Officials from UN member states are gathering in Geneva for a five-day conference on climate change.

    This conference will not discuss cutting fossil fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions – things environmentalists say are essential if we are to slow down global warming, but which governments have so far found very hard to do.
    Instead it will look at how to help countries cope with more floods, droughts and landslides already being caused by climate change.
    Many developing countries lack proper information about what to expect.

  34. I vote for Milne to be replaced by BB

    Definitely Andrew

    I’m the father of several women and there is no doubt that Rudd is the stud muffin of politics where I live.

    GG – that seems to be typical of many – they see him as being able to promote women without any sense of patronising them. And he appreciates his family. Big plus to him over and over again with women.

    And old ducks like Vera and I just melt when he smiles. Partisans we are, but the smile is uplifting when you’ve hand to look at the smirks of the Howard Govt. for 12 years.

  35. WOT! Gillard said that she would know more about the 5th grade curriculum if she was a teacher! I would’ve thought she would know the 5th grade curriculum as Minister for Education.

  37. WOT! Gillard said that she would know more about the 5th grade curriculum if she was a teacher! I would’ve thought she would know the 5th grade curriculum as Minister for Education.

    Depends on which state though 🙂

  38. Does anyone know whether the Libs. take any notice of Essential polling?

    HSO – David Spiers is a dead give away with Essential polls. When he speaks with the bloke on Monday Agenda I always know whether the poll is good for the Libs or not.

    If they go up 1 point he has a bit of a smile and says things are improving and they are making headway. If nothing moves or the poll goes down he face looks as tho it is dragging on his desk.

    Turnbull, but more particularly Abbott, will be green about it all today. The ‘nerdy, vain, egotistical incompetent’ Rudd ranking 3rd behind Hugh Jackman would be truly galling to the Oppn.

    BTW – the report about Johnson running up a huge mobile account. Is he the pollie who keeps on visiting North Korea? Do we pay for those trips?

  39. William
    At first glance it read to me as though Pat Farmer “served time” in prison not in parliament. I am guessing this is incorrect? From memory it’s unconstitutional to get elected if you’ve been convicted of murder or treason anywayl.

  40. JV,

    Gittens, like all good journalists, is more than happy to encourage Rudd to expend his political capital on Gitten’s projects of choice.

    Despite the unrelenting popularity of Rudd and his Government, they don’t have a majority in the Senate. They have also been rather fixated with economic issues flowing from the GFC.

    The Greens and the Libs have been opportunistic with their stance on CC and the ETS.
    Politics as normal.

    We’ll probably get to an agreement in the end. But there won’t happen due to a crash through approach.

    If you think otherwise, you simply don’t understand how politics works in this country.

  41. Yes, Aristotle, I guess I was presupposing a level of organisation not evident to anyone taking any notice . Silly, really.
    It’s probably one of those times when having someone like Malcolm, who will simply ignore anything that interferes with his own estimation of his wonderfulness, will suit the party for as long as he has money.
    I reckon he’ll just brush off any internal polling.
    If he continues as is, he’ll come a-cropper again.

  43. Aristotle – did she?!!! She’ll get a tongue lashing from her OH and Therese if she does.

    But I guess we’ll all be watching from now on, won’t we.

  44. GG
    Err AGW is clearly the most pressing economic issue and they have not exactly been fixated on expening any political capital there. In fact they have been taking every operrunity to prop up the old system.

  47. THM,

    I used to like you better when you promised to ignore my posts.

    Can I remind you that The Greens voted down the ETS when they had the opportunity to do something about this “most pressing issue”.

    Take your angst out on your own side, comrade.

  49. THM @88: Turns out the word doesn’t quite mean what I assumed it did, at least if the one definition offered by Dictionary.com is to be believed. However, it doesn’t mean what you’re saying either. Anyway, I’ve changed it.

  50. I hope the Laborites aren’t watching Julia Gillard on 5th Grader. She doesn’t know what ROTFLOL is.

    Doesn’t Kevin let them get emails??

Comments Page 2 of 37
1 2 3 … 37

Comments are closed.