Friday, December 4
Ben Raue of the Tally Room cases the joint, and reports the following intelligence concerning the Christian Democratic Party:
Apparently the party has divided the seat’s polling booths between the nine candidates. Each candidate has their own how-to-vote card which puts themselves first then goes to all the other CDP candidates through a donkey vote. Then the the vote goes to the DLP, Bill Koutalianos, One Nation, Simon Kelly, Philip Dowling, Environmentalists for Nuclear Energy, Brian Buckley, Liberal Democrats, Peter Hanrahan, CCC, the Liberals, the Greens and the Sex Party last.
Friday, November 20
A candidates forum will be held at 6pm tonight at the Killara High School, hosted by the school and the Australian Youth Climate Coalition.
Friday, November 13
The ballot paper draw has been conducted, and the full list of 22 candidates can be viewed here. Expect a high informal vote thanks to the Christian Democratic Party, which has been unable to make quite as much of a joke of this very serious process as they had hoped to: only nine candidates are being fielded, rather than the promised 11. Were I a Bradfield voter, I’d send these idiots a signal by placing them from 14 to 22.
Monday, November 9
News Limited reports that Zoo Weekly has approached “chk chk boom girl” Clare Werbeloff to promote its wares by having her run as a candidate. A similar enterprise proposed for the March state election in Queensland, at which former AFL player Warwick Capper was to join Pauline Hanson in running for Beaudesert, was thwarted when the great man and his policy brains trust, Mark Jackson, neglected to submit the nomination in time.
Friday, November 6
LATE: Antony Green has updated his by-election with candidate details, which lists two who had escaped my attention: medical practitioner Simon McCaffrey of the Democratic Labor Party, and fitter and turner Victor Waterson of One Nation.
EARLY: Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Christian Democratic Party’s 11 candidates will run “an emotive anti-Muslim, anti-carbon trading campaign”:
The party’s propaganda for the December 5 by-election, which has been provided in advance to The Australian, declares “Enough!” and urges Australians to “Stand your ground in defence of Christian values”. It uses a selection of alternating slogans, including, “Ten-year moratorium on Muslim immigration”, “No nukes for Iran – we must defend Israel” and “No carbon tax – stop the ETS”.
Tuesday, November 3
The North Shore Times relates the aforementioned Simon Kelly is an “anti-safe seat campaigner”, and that the Liberal Democratic Party will also field a candidate.
Monday, November 2
Seven candidates are listed on Wikipedia: the aforementioned Paul Fletcher, Susie Gemmell, Marianna Leishman and Brian Buckley; another independent, “local IT businessman” Simon Kelly; and two Christian Democratic Party candidates, Leighton Thew and Heath Wilson.
Thursday, October 29
The Australian Sex Party has announced its candidate will be one Zahra Stardust, who is apparently no relation to Ziggy – her birth certificate reportedly records her as Marianna Leishman. Stardust-Leishman is billed as “a feminist writer and law graduate who also works as a trapeze artist, burlesque performer, showgirl, fire twirler and pole dance instructor”. Nominations close November 12, with the ballot draw to follow the next day.
Tuesday, October 27
Enjoy Paul Fletcher’s by-election website.
UPDATE: And, in the interests of balance, Greens candidate Susie Gemmell’s. Thanks to Spanners and Marg for their awareness-raising efforts in comments.
Monday, October 26
Speaker Harry Jenkins has confirmed that the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections will be held on December 5.
Monday, October 19
Brendan Nelson formally tendered his resignation today to Speaker Harry Jenkins, who is expected to announce an election date of November 28 or December 5 in the coming days. Antony Green has weighed in on local reports that the Christian Democratic Party might field as many as 11 candidates: one for each disciple other than Judas, which is presumably how Fred Nile and campaign manager Michael Darby view estranged party MLC Gordon Moyes. Already pencilled in are Leighton Thew and Heath Wilson. Antony says the plan would amount to the CDP “abusing its privileges as a registered party”, which allow it to nominate candidates without obtaining the signatures of 50 voters as independent candidates are required to to. He suggests reforming the law to require nominating signatures if a party wishes to field multiple candidates.
Saturday, October 10
With the by-election process still not officially under way, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald discusses the question of timing:
Governments set byelection dates and, on average, have opted in recent years for polls 52 days after resignations were tendered. That would push Bradfield and Higgins back to Saturday, December 5. They could be a week earlier on November 28. Either way, the polls would follow the final two-week parliamentary sitting in which the Coalition – if it doesn’t filibuster – will have to vote on Labor’s emissions trading scheme.
Saturday, October 3
The North Shore Times reports potential independent candidates include Ku-ring-gai mayor Elaine Malicki and “Australian nationalist” Brian Buckley (hat tip to Nick C in comments).
Tuesday, September 29
An exquisitely detailed report on the preselection by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian details the ballot thus:
Courtesy of the special rule, the first ballot took care of everyone apart from Fletcher (28 votes), Switzer (15), Coleman (14), Leeser (11) and, surprisingly, Burton (12) and Alexander (7). A second ballot redistributed the vote as follows: Fletcher (40), Switzer (23), Leeser (19), Coleman (14), Burton (11), Alexander (7). The tennis champ was retired, hurt. Burton and Coleman were eliminated in the third and fourth ballots. As Coleman fell, the Left moved strategically against Switzer. Leeser leapfrogged him, picking up 13 of Coleman’s 17 supporters. The fifth vote came out: Fletcher (47), Leeser (38), Switzer (26). Leeser’s supporters began to speculate on how soon Turnbull would be elevating their man to the shadow ministry: with Switzer eliminated, they assumed the Right would lock in behind Leeser. They were wrong. Switzer’s vote split straight down the middle. Neeham walked briskly down the stairs of the RSL, to a room next to a billiard parlour, where the candidates were holed up. He told them Fletcher had beaten Leeser by 60 votes to 51, and took them through the successive balloting.
Sunday, September 27
Paul Fletcher won last night’s Liberal preselection over Julian Leeser by a margin of 60 to 51 in the final round, according to VexNews. Tom Switzer and David Coleman reportedly made it through to the third round, the also-rans presumably having been knocked out in the first and second. Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the preselection proceedings were delayed by a bomb scare. Fletcher holds dual British citizenship which he says he will relinquish on Monday, the High Court having established in 1999 that this constitutes “allegiance to a foreign power” when it overturned Queensland One Nation candidate Heather Hill’s election to the Senate.
Other candidate that I’m aware of: Susie Gemmell of the Greens.
Saturday, September 26
Today’s the big day for the Liberal preselection. Writing in The Australian, Peter van Onselen describes the procedure thus:
If you are reading this on Saturday, take a moment to feel for the 117Liberal Party members locked away from the outside world at the Hornsby RSL. There won’t even be a television in the background broadcasting the AFL grand final. If they’re lucky, theyll get a few newspapers to share around. The process will continue through the day as the 17 candidates formally work their way around small groups of preselectors in round table format to answer questions and make short pitches. By 7pm the voting process starts as each of the candidates gets eliminated. It is entirely possible we won’t know the result until the early hours of Sunday morning. If you are reading this article on Sunday, in all likelihood the result will be available on The Australian’s website, even if it wasn’t known in time to make it into the Sunday papers. The talk will quickly move from the process of the preselection to the choice of the candidate selected.
These are the 17 starters in vague order of likelihood of victory, as best as I can ascertain it.
Paul Fletcher. Former Optus executive, described by Imre Salusinszky as “a communications consultant and former staffer with former federal communications minister Richard Alston”. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “number crunchers” give Fletcher slight favouritism ahead of David Coleman. This is partly because he has strong support from the Left, which accounts for 35 votes, while Right (30 votes) support is scattered among Julian Leeser, Tom Switzer, Sophie York, Simon Berger and “dark horse” John Hart. Fletcher is also rated the favourite by Peter van Onselen, who nonetheless observes he “has the twin negatives of being close to the left-wing clique The Group and not living in the area”.
David Coleman. An executive with the Packer family’s Publishing and Broadcasting Limited who is associated with the Left faction and the other side of town, having run for the federal Cook preselection and been mentioned in connection with the state seat of Cronulla. Described as a “centrist” by Peter van Onselen, who rates him one of four front-runners but warns he “doesn’t live in the area and the risk for him is not having enough support early in the count to last long enough to pick up expected preferences”.
Simon Berger. Openly gay staffer for Nelson. Not Friends with Miranda Devine, who says he squibbed the emissions trading system issue while in Nelson’s employ. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports he “enjoys the doctor’s strong endorsement”, and is “loosely associated with the Alex Hawke part of the Liberal Right, but the associations with most of these candidates and the dominant factions are very loose”. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald observes that Berger’s branch will be transferred to North Sydney under the current redistribution proposal. Peter van Onselen says both Berger and Leeser “should get strong local support but the difficulty for each of them is winning enough factional support to secure a majority if they make it to the final two”.
Julian Leeser. Menzies Research Centre executive director. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, he would enjoy support from within the Alex Hawke sub-faction of the Right, but “also worked for factionally Left Phil Ruddock so he maintains good relations across the usually warring NSW Liberal tribes”. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says Leeser is a member of a Berowra branch that will be transferred into the electorate under the current redistribution proposal. Peter van Onselen reports both Leeser and Tom Switzer have been playing up the idea that a local resident is necessary to forestall a challenge by an independent running on development controversies, but says Leeser’s challenge is “winning enough factional support to secure a majority” if he makes the final two.
Tom Switzer. Former opinion page editor of The Australian, adviser to Brendan Nelson and waiter for Studs Afloat in a strictly “pants on” capacity. Said by Andrew Landeryou of VexNews to be backed by the David Clarke faction of the Right. Friends with Miranda Devine. Peter van Onselen reports Switzer has been playing up the idea that a local resident is necessary to forestall a challenge by an independent running on development controversies.
Sophie York. Like Tom Switzer, Friends with Miranda Devine, and evidently very good friends at that: she lists York’s qualifications as “barrister, author, lieutenant-commander in the navy reserves, mother of four sons”, being “part of a new breed of conservative feminists, generous and warm but with courage and a steely intellect”, and sharing Switzer’s qualities of being “successful, normal and fun, with a fine mind, good judgment, loving family and clear moral compass”.
Paul Blanch. Candidate for Calare at the 2004 federal election, at which time he was a spruiked as a sheep farmer who owned a property near Bathurst, he is now described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as a “local lawyer and businessman”.
John Alexander. Former Davis Cup champion (loosely defined), “voice of tennis” and referee on Gladiators. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Alexander only recently joined the Liberal Party and attended his first branch meeting last week. A day before the preselection. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reported Alexander had “unleashed a late offensive, telephoning about half of the 120 preselectors”.
John Hart. Chief executive of Restaurant and Catering Australia, rated a “dark horse” by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald.
Paul Ritchie. Public affairs manager for the NSW Business Chamber.
Namoi Dougall. A solicitor who once sat with Malcolm Turnbull on the Republic Advisory Committee.
Greg Burton. Another solicitor, Burton contested preselection for the state seat of Davidson in 2002.
Maureen Shelley. Former Ku-ring-gai councillor who challenged Bronwyn Bishop for preselection in Mackellar ahead of the 2007 election, losing by 90 votes to 17.
Philip Senior. A late entrant described by Peter van Onselen as an “author and business analyst”.
Richard Bell. Another late entrant, described by Andrew Priestley of the North Shore Times as a “barrister and community radio presenter”.
Robin Fitzsimons. Still another late entrant, described by Andrew Priestley of the North Shore Times as a “Sydney University senate fellow and neurologist”.
Mark Majewski. One more late entrant, described by Andrew Priestley of the North Shore Times as a “small business owner”. Majewski was the Liberal candidate for Blaxland at the 2007 federal election.
Non-starters:
Arthur Sinodinos. Considered the front-runner if he chose to run but has declined to do so, pleading the demands of politics on family life. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quotes a “senior source” saying that if Sinodinos had run, “there would have been potential to embarrass him over his relationship with the disgraced Treasury official Godwin Grech”. Peter van Onselen of The Australian has been promoting the idea that Sinodinos might want to enter state politics instead, perhaps replacing the outgoing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse.
Nick Campbell. State party president, said by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald to have put his hand up on news of Arthur Sinodinos’s no-show, but ultimately didn’t follow through.
Adrienne Ryan. Former Ku-ring-gai mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan, mentioned in relation to every NSW Liberal preselection since time immemorial, but not ultimately a contestant in this one.
Nick Farr-Jones. Former Wallabies rugby union star mentioned early in the hunt, but evidently thought better of the idea.
Monday, September 14
Ben Raue at The Tally Room reports the Greens have preselected Susie Gemmell, their candidate from the 2007 election and for the corresponding state seat of Ku-ring-gai in 2003 and 2007. Gemmell works as an adviser to state upper house MP and Senate candidate Lee Rhiannon.
Friday, September 11
Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a “draft timetable” circulating the Liberal Party has the preselection scheduled for September 26. According to Salusinszky, Fletcher is “narrowly favoured … at this stage”.
Tuesday, September 1
Malcolm Mackerras in Crikey tips a Liberal-Greens two-party margin of 59-41. He also provides an interesting rebuttal of the conventional wisdom that by-elections are bad for governments: true of the days when most resulted from the deaths of sitting members, he says, but trumped by the desire of voters to react against a “greed-driven resignation of the sitting member” by voting against their party. Without question there’s a lot of meat on these bones, but it doesn’t explain last year’s solid swing to the Nationals in Gippsland.
There may be an interesting new addition to the Liberal preselection race if an item in yesterday’s Crikey Tips and Rumours section is to be believed:
The contest for preselection in Bradfield is about to get a little more interesting with international lawyer Jason Yat-sen Li to declare his candidacy. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has been working very hard to convince Yat-sen Li to run. Turnbull and Yat-sen Li have been very close ever since they first met at the Constitutional Convention in 1998. Other front-runners for Bradfield, including Julian Leeser and Tom Switzer, fear that Yat-sen Li might just have what it takes to win the preselection, especially if he has Turnbull’s backing.
Li was the lead New South Wales Senate candidate in 1998 of the Unity Party, formed to send a multicultural message against Hansonism. He left the party shortly after, accusing it of negotiating preference deals with unsavoury right-wing micro-parties. I will hold off including him in my Liberal preselection form guide, which I will move up to the top of this post each time I add a new update:
Monday, August 31
It is expected that the by-election will be held in November: around the time, notes Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, that the Rudd government will reintroduce its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme legislation, daring the opposition to provide it with a double dissolution trigger. Helpful Liberal sources inform Glenn Milne that Malcolm Turnbull is “finished” if he can’t add 2 per cent to the Liberal primary vote. This is revealed in an interesting article for News Limited’s Sunday tabloids which doesn’t seem to be online:
The battle for Bradfield will be an internal Liberal party referendum on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. No more, no less. And for anyone who thinks that a cruel and unusual benchmark for a leader scraping the bottom of poll figures no politician would wish upon another, hark back a moment, if you will, to May, 2008. That was the time of the Gippsland by-election. A happier time for Brendan Nelson, whose decision to quit politics early has turned the contest for Bradfield into a make-or-break moment for Malcolm Turnbull.
Nelson was leader of the Liberal Party and Turnbull his putative challenger. Turnbull and his supporters told anyone who would listen that Gippsland was Nelson’s last stand. If Gippsland went, held by the Nationals for more than 20 years, so too would Nelson’s leadership. Gippsland happened in the full sunlamp glow of Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon. Back then, no one had heard of the global financial crisis. Nelson didn’t have an issue to fly with. But in tough-minded fashion, he grafted some. He opposed the Government’s alco-pops tax as an attack on the “ute-man” demographic in Gippsland, and he flayed Rudd over his broken election promises to bring down grocery and petrol prices. Critically, he used his Budget in Reply speech to propose a five-cents-a-litre-cut in fuel tax.
It flew. Behind the scenes, Turnbull described it as “populist crap”. But after Nelson announced – the first time around – he’d be retiring at the next election, Kevin Rudd had him around for a private cup of tea. Rudd declared Nelson’s speech on the Budget one of his finest moments as Liberal Leader. Unlike Turnbull, Rudd knew a good political manoeuvre when he saw one. The National Party went on to retain Gippsland with an 8.4 per cent swing against Labor.
Critically, the emphatic victory came off the preferences of the 20.4 per cent of the vote won by the Liberal candidate, Rohan Fitzgerald. And you know what that victory bought Brendan Nelson? Three weeks of clear air. That’s all. Three weeks before Turnbull and his supporters again began white-anting him before finally bringing him down five months later. So don’t let anyone tell you that posing the Bradfield by-election as a test for Malcolm Turnbull is a maliciously minded set-up. It is simply a matter of applying Malcolm’s own standards to himself.
The Liberal preselection will be decided at the end of September by 72 local branch delegates and 48 from the state council and state executive. There is talk of as many 20 candidates taking the field. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk in Liberal circles that some might be running to serve notice to the members for neighbouring Berowra and Mackellar, Philip Ruddock and Bronwyn Bishop, that it won’t do for them to squeeze out another term while the surplus of Bradfield preselection talent goes begging.
Elsewhere, AAP reports the Greens will preselect a candidate on September 14. There’s a crazy large guide to the electorate on Ben Raue’s The Tally Room. The similarly thorough Antony Green offers some late news on the 1952 by-election for the seat.
Tuesday, August 25
Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Brendan Nelson “will not stay until the next election” and will “make an announcement in the next 24 hours”, suggesting a by-election is imminent in his north Sydney seat of Bradfield. The electorate runs from Chatswood north through Killara, Turramurra and St Ives to Wahroonga and has been very safe for the Liberals since its creation in 1949, the inaugural member being a venerable Billy Hughes. Brendan Nelson came to the seat in 1996 after a preselection coup against David Connolly, member from 1974.
Nelson announced he would not contest the next election in February, leading to considerable jockeying ahead of a preselection that was delayed pending the announcement of new electoral boundaries. To head off branch stacking, the party’s state executive promptly ruled that any new members in the electorate would not be eligible to vote in the preselection ballot due nine months’ hence, whereas the rule normally requires only six months of membership. By all accounts the two front-runners will be Arthur Sinodinos, legendary former chief-of-staff to John Howard, and Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor for The Australian. However, other names were recently put forward by Phillip Coorey: Menzies Research Centre executive director Julian Leeser; Paul Fletcher, director of corporate and regulatory affairs at Optus; and David Coleman, an executive with the Packer family’s Publishing and Broadcasting Limited (last I heard) who is associated with the Left faction and the other side of the town, having run for the federal Cook preselection and been mentioned in connection with the state seat of Cronulla.
Antony Green has quickly whipped up a post on the matter, noting as a certain fact that Labor won’t run and that “the real contest in Bradfield is likely to be in Liberal pre-slection, not the subsequent by-election”.
UPDATE: According to Christian Kerr of The Australian, an “influential local Liberal” says: “If Arthur wants the seat, he’s got it. If he doesn’t run, then it’s an open race.”
UPDATE 2: The psephoblogosphere doesn’t stuff around: posts up already from Possum and Ben Raue.
UPDATE 3: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says his sources believe Sinodinos is “not interested in running and has told people so as late as today”. He also names as another contender “master campaign tactician Simon Berger, an openly gay staffer for Nelson who enjoys the doctor’s strong endorsement”. Berger is “loosely associated with the Alex Hawke part of the Liberal Right, but the associations with most of these candidates and the dominant factions are very loose”. Leeser “would enjoy support from within the Hawke group. Interestingly, he once also worked for factionally Left Phil Ruddock so he maintains good relations across the usually warring NSW Liberal tribes”. Tom Switzer has support from the “Taliban Right” associated with local operative Noel McCoy and hard Right warlord David Clarke, “although they don’t really claim him as a member as such”. Apparently still in the mix is barrister Mark Speakman, recently discussed as a possible successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse and a challenger to federal incumbent Stephen Mutch in Cook way back in 1998, which led to the installation of Bruce Baird as a compromise candidate. Landeryou reckons David Coleman’s “decision to drag the party off to court over a previous preselection (for Cook before the last federal election) made him as popular as a bikini model in a Kabul coffee house”.
Ozymandias,
The Libs have also pre selected Sara Henderson ex 7.30 reporter and presenter for Corangamite.
Sara Henderson is a Liberal? That’s a shame.
Good result for the Liberals in Corangamite. Getting back to Bradfield, I wouldn’t expect a result that much better* to what happened in Mayo – i.e. significant drop in primary vote from the 2007 poll but win handily. Its a pity there will not be any by-election on the same day in Mackellar and Berowra
*from a Liberal perspective
[The Libs have also pre selected Sara Henderson ex 7.30 reporter and presenter for Corangamite.]
WOT! I thought the ABC only hired communists!
Trubbell at 80
“Are there any other federal seats like Bradfield, named after Queenslanders but in other states? Or seats named after figures from one state in any other state?”
Bradfield might have been born in Qld, but he lived in NSW from the age of about 22, and is certainly remembered for his achievements in NSW rather than up north.
But in answer to your question, I don’t think so. Be interesting to see where they put the electorate of Hawke in due course (presumably in honour of Bob, not Alex). SA (birthplace), WA (youth), Vic (resided from age 27 and represented an electorate there) or NSW (where he seems to spend his dotage).
Re the blow-in factor, discussed above. Dr Nelson was the ultimate blow in. It doesn’t really matter any more, in really safe seats. Good Liberal voters will elect good Liberal candidates (or even bad ones). Same goes on the ALP side of things.
As for timing of the announcement, well I’m sure it gives Dr N a bit of satisfaction in making life difficult for empty. But my guess as to timing is that it gives the person that Nelson wants to replace him the best chance to win the preselection.
Hawke would be created in Victoria, where his seat in parliament was.
Same reason Curtin is in Western Australia. Curtin represented Fremantle, but was a Victorian by upbringing and once ran for the seat of Balaclava.
I think divisions named after PMs should be safe seats held by the party they represented. Julie Bishop holding Curtin, pffft, what sacrilege.
Anyone from Corangamite?
What’s Darren Cheeseman like as an MP?
I just hope Brenda does not go and work for the arms (ie child killer – and others) industry.
Apart from being well against his doctors oath, even though he was with the other side,
I still thought him a reasonable human being.
IF he does a peter reith and becomes just another salesman for the merchants of death it will be a great pity. Would not imagine he needs the $$$’s that much ?
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/r_e_s_p_e_c_t_brendan_nelson_cant_even_spell_it/
Daily Telegraph Liberal hacks digging in to Penberthy in the comments cause it’s not a pro-Liberal piece. Love it!
Well Keating and other labor former ministers were heavily criticised when they
left the parliament after losing the 1996 election. Latham was too.
I think howard and the trail of libs and nats that have left since 2007 have been treated with kid gloves. Up until now their departures have been “understandable” in stark contrast to labor.
The main reason for criticism seems to be that it will hurt mad mal.
bob at 157 – but what would they do with Hughes?
Turnbull is next. I feel a big “Eff youse all” coming from the Rainmaker.
[bob at 157 – but what would they do with Hughes?]
He served more time as a conservative than he did a Labor man.
[ Turnbull is next. I feel a big “Eff youse all” coming from the Rainmaker.]
Agree. I’d be amazed if he doesn’t know when to cut his losses and move on.
Just a matter of time.
[Turnbull is next. I feel a big “Eff youse all” coming from the Rainmaker.]
I agree. If they dump his as leader, then he will leave. I can’t see him hanging around on the back bench.
Turnbull seems to have a strong personal vote in Wentworth, so if he does leave Labor would be in with a chance of winning it.
Turnbull said he wanted to fight the Bradfield byelection based on “debt and deficit”. The point about Bradfield is: what GFC?.
[The Liberal Party cannot lose the North Shore seat of Bradfield, one of the wealthiest electorates in the land and one of the Liberals’ safest with a margin of 13 per cent. They can’t lose it because Labor isn’t even going to contest the byelection.
Is this cowardly? Yes. It means that the voters of Bradfield will not be able to use it as an opportunity to register any protest against Rudd Labor.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/biggest-thorn-for-the-coalition-isnt-turnbull-its-rudd-20090825-ey40.html
[bob at 157 – but what would they do with Hughes?]
Nothing at all. Over time it’s very appropriately drifted from Labor to Liberal.
[t means that the voters of Bradfield will not be able to use it as an opportunity to register any protest against Rudd Labor.]
That’s just idiotic. If the LIberals get more than 63.5% of the 2pp vote, then I will consider that a protest against Labor, because that would mean the Liberals did better in the by-election than in the last general election.
From my blog:
Of the nine by-elections between 1996 and 2007, the Liberal Party only contested the three seats it held, Lindsay (1996), Ryan (2001) and Aston (2001). The Liberal Party did not nominate candidates for Blaxland (1996), Fraser (1997), Holt (1999), Isaacs (2000), Cunningham (2002) or Werriwa (2005). The Liberal Party also opted out of the Newcastle supplementary election 1998.
Five of those six Labor seats were very safe. The odd one out was Isaacs, held by Labor with a 6.4% margin. Isaacs was held six weeks after the introduction of the GST and timing made it a by-election that the Liberal Party thought it best to avoid.”
The Greens will choose someone at least vaguely local, I’m sure. I don’t think picking someone high-profile from outside the area would do us a lot of good in Bradfield.
The problem in that part of Sydney is that Ku-ring-gai Council, that covers the vast majority of Bradfield, uses a non-PR electoral system which has blocked the Greens from winning seats. We do quite well in Northern Sydney despite never contesting all wards. We currently have 2 councillors in Hornsby, Lane Cove and Warringah and 1 each in Manly (almost got 2 in Manly), North Sydney and Willoughby. If Ku-ring-gai had a PR system like every Sydney council except Botany Bay, then we would have councillors there too. That tends to be where we draw high-profile community figures.
Who knows, they might preselect a Hornsby or Willoughby councillor, since those councils cover parts of Bradfield. Lynne Saville performed very strongly for the Greens in Willoughby West ward last year (I don’t have the figures in front of me, but I think she topped the poll in her ward), and that ward is substantially part of Bradfield. A small part of Hornsby A ward is also in Bradfield, where the Greens have a councillor, Wendy McMurdo, now in her second term.
I don’t know Lynne or Wendy so no idea whether they are appropriate. Unfortunately, while both could be considered technically local, their councils don’t cover the vast bulk of the electorate, and it might be better to choose a less visible figure from Ku-ring-gai.
Ted Kennedy has died. RIP
A report from his family announced his death a short time ago.
In 2007 election in Bradfield, ALP did 27%, Greens did 11%. If the Greens cannot get at least 30% in this byelection. It should go back to Tasmania.
Goanna, please note article 1 of comment moderation guidelines.
Sorry if i have transgressed William, but i would have thought the the death of Ted Kennedy is the biggest political, as well as personal, story world wide at the moment, and as so deserved to be noted here.
I gather you didn’t read it, so allow me to make it easier for you.
[If a post deals with anything other than a federal opinion poll, please stay on topic. Do not use the most recent thread for whatever you feel like saying purely because that’s where you think the most people will read it. Federal poll threads are for wide-ranging discussion of politics, within reasonable limits. I will inevitably have to exercise highly subjective discretion in determining those limits.]
In other words, please discuss it on the other thread.
opps wrong thread, sorry
Bob Brown (on shy nooz aganda) joins the predictable chorus for Labor to field a candidate in Bradfield.
But could not name the last Green candidate when pressed. 🙂
[But could not name the last Green candidate when pressed.]
I bet Kevin Rudd couldn’t name the Bradfield Labor candidate either.
They’re all just playing politics. Of course Labor shouldn’t run a candidate. Of course the Greens and Libs will say that they should, but of course are thankful that they aren’t. It barely needs discussing until candidates are selected.
[I bet Kevin Rudd couldn’t name the Bradfield Labor candidate either.]
Why should he when Labor is not running, Bob Brown was spruiking the Green candidate in the last election but could not name her, how come he knew what % of the vote she received but not her name?
[how come he knew what % of the vote she received ]
I’m surprised he could even remember that – full point to him. When you’re the leader of a party, remembering names and results in 150 electorates isn’t exactly the easiest or of the highest importance.
Antony Green @ 170
Wasn’t it also the case in Isaacs that the previous member (Greg Wilton, if I recall correctly) had committed suicide and that in the tragic circumstances there was a sort of ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that the libs would not run?
They tried having a go at Beazly and Howard for not remembering every single candidates name. I never joined in the chorus of denouncing them for that, its got to be tough.
Nevertheless, politics is a stupid, stupid game sometimes so of course opponents can take anything like that as fair game.
It was widely reported that the Liberal Party chose not to run because the by-election was held 6 weeks after the introduction of the GST. Those sorts of stories always come from off-the record briefings as no Minister would ever have said they weren’t running because of fear of a GST backlash. The Liberal Party may well have made public statement about not running because of the death of Mr Wilton. I suspect both reasons are true and inter-related.
[The former treasurer, Peter Costello, who also wants to leave early, refused to say whether he would go at the same time, allowing the byelections to be held simultaneously.]
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/nelson-hands-turnbull-his-toughest-test-20090826-eyif.html
[LIBERALS expect long-dormant political ambitions of corporate and legal high-flyers to come to life for the Liberal preselection in the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Bradfield now that former John Howard chief-of-staff, Arthur Sinodinos, has pulled out.]
[Liberal officials now expect a Melbourne Cup field of up to 20 candidates to nominate for one of the Liberal Party’s safest seats.]
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25987811-421,00.html
So they are going to have 20 candidates, yet Bronwyn Bishop is most likely to be in the next parliament.
LOL! Now Sinodinus writes his Oz opinion piece saying that Costello still shouldn’t be discounted as a leadership candidate:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25986137-7583,00.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Bradfield
Don’t spose William or Possum are such psephologists that they know how the 1952 Bradfield by-election was received, where there was a 22 percent primary swing against the Liberals to 57 percent, with the two party margin falling 20 percent to 58 percent? And was Martin Hardie, the popular independent, of any notable persuasion?
Miranda Devine throws another name, a personal friend Sophie York into the mix:
“Sophie York, 42, barrister, author, lieutenant-commander in the navy reserves, mother of four sons. She is part of a new breed of conservative feminists, generous and warm but with courage and a steely intellect”.
Then displays her ignorance by suggesting the by election will be a referendum on NSW Labor.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/dare-not-sip-this-poisoned-chalice-20090826-ezpe.html?page=-1
Martin Hardie was a Sydney QC. There was no Labor candidate at the by-election. I’ll tell you more about it tomorrow as consulting the NSW Parliament’s card index on the 1952 by-election is in todays list of things to do.
Bob: there’s a few old newspaper articles on Hardie, from the SMH and Canberra Times. (My god, newspapers looked so different then – these days you’re lucky to get one paragraph on the front page.) Google:
[ “Martin Hardie” Bradfield ]
He was a QC, apparently didn’t like Arthur Fadden (Country Party leader, treasurer at the time) all that much, and generally thought the govt should be low-tax, low-spending. Also criticised the Chifley govt and didn’t like communism or socialism, although the ALP supported him in the absence of their own guy. He’d probably fit much better into the modern Liberal Party than the one that got the Snowy Scheme and such built. Meanwhile, J. Sommerville Smith (plain old John Smith in the Wiki article) was the unendorsed and disaffected Labour candidate (yep, there was a ‘u’ in ‘Labour’ for some reason), and got 2.7%. (Then he quit the party and I guess faded back into obscurity.) Edward Wright, another independent who got even less than that, seemed to think the existence of a Turner / Hardie campaign showed a major split in the Liberal Party. It all seems relatively interesting… I probably won’t write the red-linked Wiki article for the by-elelction because I haven’t got the time to research it properly or the writing skill, but somebody oughta.
Also, it could just be because the member who caused the by-election by dying was Billy Hughes. Anyone who hangs around in parliament for half a century while chewing through more parties than even exist in it these days would take one helluva personal vote with them. I think he was the last member of the first parliament to stay… that would’ve been a major news story in itself.
[I’ll tell you more about it tomorrow as consulting the NSW Parliament’s card index on the 1952 by-election is in todays list of things to do.]
I love it when you talk dirty 😛
Ah, and I got sniped by the local expert while I was typing that long post. 😛
I love Sinodinos’ cheek. Imagine telling Cossie to move to State politics for the good of the party when you’ve just pulled the plug on having a go yourself!
Let alone saying that the next Federal election could still go Liberal’s way!
While i’ve yet to look at the contemporary newspapers, I’ll bet the 1952 by-election saw something similar to what always occurred at vacancies on the North Shore of Sydney in that area. There was always opposition to a party running pre-selections. The United Australia Party from time to time allowed multiple endorsement to get around objection to only one candidate being chosen. The central party organisation would also choose a candidate by its procedures, only to find local branches deciding to endorse and back their own candidates.
The MSM have collectively got egg on their faces again, after their “confident” predictions that 1) Sinodinos would be the next member for Bradfield, 2) Nathan Rees will be replaced as Premier by Kristina Keneally.
And they wonder why people don’t read newspapers any more?
To Bird of paradox (192): If J. Sommerville Smith is the same character who ran the scurrilous ‘Toorak Times’ in Melbourne for some years (I think in the 1960s and 70s), he certainly didn’t fade into obscurity.
blackburnpseph! is correct for Gary Wilton was a well liked local MP and when he passed away the story was that some ALP people approached the Liberals and requested that they sit out the by-election.
The by-election was held when the GST was at its most unpopular stage and i am sure that helped to bring the Liberals to agreement with the ALP concerning the request to not contest.,
The John Somerville-Smith who contested the 1952 Bradfield by-election was a 33 year-old bridge carpenter employed by the Water Conservation Commission at Lake Keepit in northern NSW. He was also a local ALP branch secretary.