Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, down from 57-43 at the previous two polls. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one point to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up four points to 30 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Turnbull’s approval is the only leadership measure that has moved noticeably.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 58-42. Also featured: support for an ETS-driven early election continues to fall; confidence in the economy continues to rise; there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador; and two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”.


• The Gold Coast News reports that Peter Dutton faces “an ugly pre-election battle” if he wishes to move from notionally Labor Dickson to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson, to be vacated by the retirement of Margaret May. Rival candidates include federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews, a “close ally” of May; Dr Richard Stuckey, husband of Jann Stuckey, state front-bencher and member for the local seat of Currumbin; and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.

• For the second election in a row, Dennis Jensen will represent the Liberals in their safe Perth seat of Tangney despite having lost the initial preselection vote. The West Australian reports that Jensen won a State Council vote over the initially successful candidate, Glenn Piggott, by no less a margin than 76 votes to five. This result was foreshadowed a month ago by a commenter on this site travelling under the name of Matt Brown’s Imaginary Friend (Matt Brown being the initial victor of the 2007 preselection), who wrote: “Council knows that if Jensen (is) dumped, the Libs’ chances of holding the marginals will dive because campaign funds will be so stretched, adverse publicity will have (a) ripple effect, and Tangney itself could be lost to Jensen if (he) stood as an independent, whether to him or even to the ALP if he did the obvious and swapped preferences with them”.

• Saturday’s Weekend Australian featured a post-redistribution proposal Mackerras pendulum, which you can see at Mumble. The accompanying article takes aim at the assertion of Peter van Onselen and others that the redistributions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia collectively constitute a “Ruddymander”.

Simon Benson of The Daily Telegraph reports that the tensions over the New South Wales Labor leadership could be coming to the boil:

With the various warring factions in the Labor party room unable to decide on who would be a replacement, Mr Rees was said to be considering acting before he gets chopped. Sources confirmed he was using threats of a reshuffle to axe “trouble-making” ministers, a veiled reference to Health Minister John Della Bosca, if sniping about his leadership continued. The internal malaise in the Government has become so bad that very few MPs believe the current situation can continue. Mr Rees is also reported to have told those closest to him that his position was untenable if the plotting against him could not be arrested. Another Labor source said Labor powerbrokers including national secretary Karl Bitar were considering tapping Mr Rees on the shoulder next week if they could convince Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt to take over. It is understood Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is also being drafted into the soap opera with sources claiming his Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese has directly lobbied Mr Rudd to support a move to install Ms Tebbutt, who is Mr Albanese’s wife.

John Della Bosca today added fuel to the fire by declaring it was “no state secret” that it was constitutionally possible for an upper house MP such as himself to be Premier. However, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports focus group research shows “many people still think (Rees) should be given time to make a go of the job”, and gives an insight into the public view of Della Bosca, Tebbutt and other sometimes-mentioned leadership prospects, Kristina Keneally, John Robertson and Frank Sartor.

• The ABC reports that the member for the Nationals member for the Victorian state seat of Murray Valley, Ken Jasper, will retire at the next election. Jasper is 71 years old and has held the seat since 1976. I must confess the seat does not loom large in my consciousness, but my election guide entry tells me the Nationals are “concerned at their ability to hold the seat without him”. Jasper nonetheless held the seat in 2006 with 50.9 per cent of the vote against the Liberal candidate’s 21.9 per cent.

• The Victorian Greens have preselected for the highly winnable state seat of Melbourne a barrister and former president of Liberty Victoria, Brian Walters, ahead of Moonee Valley councillor Rose Iser.

Lots more information on various Greens preselections from Ben Raue of The Tally Room:

• Raue appears to have the inside dope on the state upper house preselection in South Australia, declaring former Democrat and current state party convenor Tammy Jennings the “clear frontrunner” for the lucrative top spot (he earlier named SA Farmers Federation chief executive Carol Vincent, former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit and unheralded Mark Andrew as the other candidates).

• Raue also names preselection candidates for the Queensland Senate: Larissa Waters (the 2007 candidate, who also ran for Mount Coot-tha at the March state election), “perennial candidates” Libby Connors and Jenny Stirling, and 2009 Sunnybank candidate Matthew Ryan-Sykes.

• Raue names Emma Henley and Peter Campbell as candidates for the Victorian upper house region of Eastern Metropolitan.

• In the Tasmanian state seat of Braddon, Paul O’Halloran has apparently been chosen to “lead the ticket”, to the extent that that means anything under Robson rotation. Braddon is the only one of the five divisions currently without a Greens member.

Antony Green corner:

• In comments on this site, Antony discusses the prospects of a Victorian redistribution before the next federal election:

A Victorian redistribution is due because the boundaries from the last redistribution were gazetted on 29 January 2003. A re-draw starts seven years later, the end of January 2010. A redistribution is not required in the last 12 months before the House expires. The current House first sat on 12 February 2008 so it expires 11 February 2011. This means there is an unfortunate two week gap that will force a redistribution. If the Victorian boundaries had been gazetted two weeks later in 2003, or if the Rudd government had re-called parliament in December 2007, the redistribution would be deferred. Unfortunately, the Electoral Act is very prescriptive on dates so it appears the redistribution will have to take place, unless the act is changed.

• Two posts on his blog relate to the slow decline of the Nationals, one directly, the other with reference to the relative decline of rural population.

Also featured is a post comparing the current position of the state Labor government in New South Wales with that of the Unsworth government as it drifted to the abyss in 1988.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Not sure but wilkiipeadia and sadly i cannot create links but wilki offers possible expernations including that said that person may have lived 969 montsh equally something like 78 years of age.

  2. My Favorite Bible Quotes:

    Ezekiel 23:20 “There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses”.


    Acts 4:32 “The Believers share their possessions: All the believers were one in heart and mind. No one claimed that any of his possessions was his own, but they shared everything they had”.
    Acts 4:34 “There were no needy person among them. For from time to time those who owned lands or houses sold them, brought the money from the sales (35) and put it at the apostles’ feet, and it was distributed to anyone as he had needed.”

    Comrad Christ!

    Another inconveniant question: How could Jesus prophesis Judas’s betrayal if we are supposed to have free will? If we are judged on our actions then we must have a choice. So at best he could just make an educated guess as to Judas’s actions. It also fails to take into account circumstances. If you hit-and-run, then you are a sinner and go to hell but if you are lucky enough to grow up in a nice neighborhood and die young (the younger the better to prevent sins before they happen) before being presented with a situation where sinning is tempting then you are saved. Of course all this forgets about brain chemistry, that our actions are sometimes outside of our control so sin is just your tough luck.

    TP 2211 – yeah no point arguing.

  3. I wonder what the American Right makes of the following passage for it looks like communisim

    Acts 4:34 “There were no needy person among them. For from time to time those who owned lands or houses sold them, brought the money from the sales (35) and put it at the apostles’ feet, and it was distributed to anyone as he had needed.”

  4. Mexicanbeemer
    Ever since the Bible was written every Christian civilization has ignored the passages they don’t like and highlighted the ones that give legitimacy to their actions. Hence the American slave traders highlighted the endorsement of slavery in the Bible (as long as they are from a distant tribe) and the modern day American Christian Right obsess over the homosexuals are evil stuff. The Bible is big and vague enough to endorse any position, even snake handlers have a leg to stand on (though the snake itself does not 😛 ). Look for what you want and it will reinforce your beliefs, I am certain Jesus was a socialist, yet the American Right are equally certain that God votes Republican.

  5. Trubbell at 2237: (whoa, 2k posts since I last checked in? I am not reading all that…)

    [ Seriously unpalatable food for thought for everyone who has been banging on regarding the merits and otherwise of proportional representation eletoral systems on this blog over the past few months:

    The Democratic Party may be forced to give up some parliamentary seats because its overwhelming victory in the electoral districts may not leave enough candidates on the party’s list for the proportional representation vote.

    Under the current electoral system, a candidate can run in both an electoral district and the proportional representation segment. A candidate who has won a constituency will automatically be omitted from the proportional representation list.

    (snip) ]

    I don’t understand Japan’s electoral system much, but from that I’m guessing it’s some kind of MMP system like New Zealand / Germany (with the PR section still splitting the country into regions – huh?), and the DPJ got a few underhang seats due to having a lot of their candidates in safe LDP seats on the PR list. Sounds like they stuffed up a bit… they knew they were heading for a landslide victory, they should’ve had a bigger list than they would’ve needed even for that. (Sorta like the way Labor wouldn’t dream of running just 3 WA candidates in a Senate election here.) Or, they coud’ve made the PR list from separate people not running in districts. Getting the right mix of potential ministers, good local members and making-up-the-numbers hacks would be an interesting exercise there… how would they parachute a Peter Garrett type into parliament there, for example?

    Anyways, a majority is a majority – the DPJ got more than 50% of the vote (I guess? I haven’t read any news stories on it yet), and got a majority of seats – fair is fair. The size of the majority isn’t important unless it trivially is (like the anti-filibuster 60% of the US Senate).

    What I do wonder about, though, is how the LDP got a big fat majority last time if this system’s been around for a while. Odd.

  6. Also, just as interesting and a lot closer to home:

    Call for national roll-out of Royalties for Regions

    Tony Crook is running against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor for the National Party next federal election. He ran in Kalgoorlie last state election in a total mess of a contest that was Libs vs ALP last time (with Matt Birney, who was later Lib leader for several minutes in 2005), but ended up as John Bowler vs Nat by about 3%. That seat was traditional Labor until the 2001 election (it’s a mining town), then Liberal for exactly the eight years they were in opposition, now an ex-Labor minister who got booted from the party for corruption… figure that one out. O’Connor’s the big southern seat under the redistribution, including Kalgoorlie, Albany and the great southern.

    Anyway, half the story there is that the Nats are trying to make Royalties for Regions an issue, as worked so well for them last time. They’re trying to hook it into the “GST revenue all going over east” grumble that pops up every now and again in WA and Qld. God knows how that’s gonna go down with the NSW Nats, let alone the Libs anywhere. Barnaby Joyce might just love it though.

  7. At least the Federal Liberals lead the field in one aspect in 2009. Talking on mobile phones at taxpayer expense is the latest contribution from the party of great economic managers.

    [Mr Slipper was fifth on the list, with a bill of $14,764.36. Mr Laming was in seventh place with $14,235.69 worth of charges, followed by Mr Johnson on $12,737.48.

    Some MPs with large phone bills argued they had to rely on their mobiles while covering their electorates but Mr Johnson has a suburban Brisbane seat and Mr Laming’s seat is centred in Redland City.

    Loquacious Independent MP Bob Katter, who represents Queensland’s largest electorate of Kenny, had a bill of $11,424.72 while the ever-talkative Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce cost taxpayers $6068.58.

    The billing period covers 2008 but for some MPs it does not include the whole year.

    Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, who is regularly seen thumbing his privately funded BlackBerry, hit taxpayers up for only $832.23 worth of calls.],23739,26002708-952,00.html

  8. The Queensland parliament meets this week and it will be interesting to see if abortion law is bought out of the dark ages.

    [The government will amend a section of the criminal code, exempting doctors from prosecution for performing otherwise illegal abortions, to cover recently developed medical techniques involving drugs such as RU486 and misoprostol.

    Police allege a consignment of these drugs was illegally imported by Cairns mechanic Sergie Brennan, 21, to terminate the pregnancy of his 19-year-old girlfriend Tegan Simone Leach. The couple are due to face Cairns Magistrates Court on Thursday for committal proceedings.

    With state parliament sitting this week, Shay’s family is hoping legislation amending section 282 of the criminal code can be rushed through, clearing the way for medical abortion services to be resumed.],25197,26004302-5006786,00.html

  9. [Ever since the Bible was written every Christian civilization has ignored the passages they don’t like and highlighted the ones that give legitimacy to their actions. Hence the American slave traders highlighted the endorsement of slavery in the Bible]

    Most of the impetus for abolition in both the British Empire and the US came from principled Christians who thought that slavery was against the will of God. I don’t suppose those Christian abolitionists behaved in that way because of a desire for a comfortable life.

  10. [the modern day American Christian Right obsess over the homosexuals are evil stuff.]

    I agree the US churches are off track with their obsessive focus on sexual behaviour. I don’t think too many people have ever claimed that the church is perfect.

  11. [Look for what you want and it will reinforce your beliefs]

    A possibly valid critique, not just of Christianity, but of most belief systems that have lasted for any significant period of time. Including Godless belief systems.

  12. Glen Milne has been shuffling those little pieces of paper around again.

    In today’s OO we get the (by now) routine announcement that the “honeymoon is over”, followed by Justification No. #765,439 for it: the School’s Stimulus has been too successful.

    Under the single lonely desk lamp in Glen’s basement, the floating chads, neatly cut into small squares, each with a killer Is-This-The-End-Of-Rudd scenario inked onto them, suddenly aligned over the weekend, ouji board style.

    Rudd is “Dear Leader” and Gillard is “Madame Dear Leader”. As if that brilliant mind picture wasn’t cutting enough to get the punters out with their torches and pitchforks after the Monster, the gymnasiums that the stimulus money has been funding have suddenly turned into thousands of ribbon whirling dancers, a la Pyongyang, all synchronized to the tune of praise for the Labor Government.

    Never mind that the Stimpac has single-handedly saved Australia from recession. Never mind that tens if not hundreds of thousands have been able to keep working in the construction sector building much needed education infrastructure. Never mind that the main problem with the package has been that more schools than anticipated took up the offer, signalling the wisdom and success of the idea. Never mind the success and acceptance of the program by educators and parents alike has been overwhelmingly positive. None of this matters. Aussies don’t like braggarts. The government’s supposed to do these types of things and not point out that it was their idea, an idea universally and continuously condemned by the “alternative government”. It’s the signs that are going to bring down the government, that have ended the honeymoon, and it’s all at the hands of that master strategist and cold-blooded political assassin, Christopher Pyne, who isn’t upset about being called a “poodle” at all, no, just like Glen isn’t still chafing from being labelled the Opposition’s “journalist of choice”. Neither insult to their various integrities has had the slightest effect on subsequent vitupeative rantings eminating from mouth and pen in equal measure.

    Gillard was going real well (with a lot of help from a sycophantic media, Glen excluded or course) until she took a step too far north of the 38th Parallel. Gee, and we naifs here at PB thought the praise was genuine! We thought that the pundits’ paens were all about Julia and had nothing to do with trying to pathetically undermine Rudd by rumouring La Gillardine was after his job, post haste. Now that that little piece of paper has been recycled (in the bin with “Rudd—–Manchurian Candidate????” and “Sauce Bottle—–Shake or Suck?????”) there’s no need to be nice to the Deputy PM. They can go the rat and have at her for those signs. Glen knew she’d stumble, and stumble she has, just like he said she would.

    The mums and dads all over Australia will be up in arms, yodelling for Labor blood. They can spot a totalitarian lefty plot to control their minds when they see one. All that needs to be done is to point out the connection in a brilliantly researched and deftly worded opinion piece in the OO, penned by one of their senior journalists, for which (one day soon) we will be – as Glen would put it, “make no mistake” – queueing up to pay to read. All Australia’s abuzz at the new scandal, this week’s Waterloo for Rudd and his phonies.

    Well in this writer’s opinion it’s Glen who’s made the mistakes, including getting out of bed this morning thinking that this piece of opinionated, angst-driven ratbaggery will have any effect except on those already, er, affected by Milne Syndrome. It goes like this: every week, every column, you trump up some outlandish reason for why the honeymoon’s over. You cobble together any old facts, ignore others and triumphantly present the latest thesis as a rolled gold reason for Rudd and his rotten rabble being gone. You damn him for being too successful, when you can’t bring him down for outright failure. Dredge up the past – Fuel Choices being one – ignoring the fact that the legislation was demurred not by the government but by the Opposition. There’s one failure for you, straight off the bat. Throw in Climate Change and Japanese Whalers, private Health Insurance and the nurses shortage and you have them on the ropes, at least on those little pieces of paper. Forget about the GFC, which threw not only the whole country, but the whole world into chaos and despair. If Rudd’s as good as he claims to be, he should have been able to implement every single one of his election promises, on time, on budget, without amendment, and still had time to combat the GFC.

    And if you’re wrong, again, for the umpteenth time, shuffle the cards and come up with another mad scheme next week. You’re sure to get it right, eventually, and then we can forget all the other theories.

    This is the kind of reasoning that wins elections. The Opposition doesn’t have to do anything. Policies? They already have those. Leaders? They’ve had three in the past two years, four if you count The Man Who Never Was, old Pistol Pete himself. They don’t have to worry that their leader (when they have a leader) is about as popular as a nun in a knocking shop… and that’s with his own side. No, all they have to do is point out The Signs and it’ll be all over for Dear and Madame Leaders, catapaulted back into obscurity as the Liberals triumphantly allow government to drop back into their hands with the minimum of work. The little pieces of paper have spoken. It’s a dead cert, at least down in the bowels of Glen Milne’s basement.

    Well might he claim that if Chris “Poodle” Pyne had called Julia the “brindled bitch” he’d be out of Parliament instanto. What’s the penalty for pointing out that Glen is suffering from the worst case I’ve ever seen of Little Dog Syndrome?

  13. BB2265

    A good read as always Bill; further confirmation of why I never bother reading Milne and prefer just to read your disection instead. You’re a better writer too 🙂

    We are about to get second quarter accounts figures on Tuesday, which wll prove the stimulus has worked. I suppose Milne needs to convince people it was a failure before evidence of the opposite seeps out:

    The other tactic (highly undesirable economically) they might take next is to say that the stimulus was excessive and has already worked so they should cancel the rest of it. Don’t fallfor it. That is exactly how the USA fell back into recession in 1936, and Japan in 1998.

  14. [Methuselah lived to be 969 years old.]

    That does it! I’m definitely not watching The Simpsons ever again. When the series started, Bart was 10 and he hasn’t aged a day since then. I’ve been jibbed.

  15. Interesting that those “commentators” (for example, Milne) who criticise the government for a bit of self-promotion of its economic credentials are cut from the same cloth as those many obsequious “commentators” who, for a decade and more, avidly did the Coalition’s job of promoting its economic credentials. It’s groupthink, and not much more.

  16. Trubbell @ 2227
    [Seriously unpalatable food for thought for everyone who has been banging on regarding the merits and otherwise of proportional representation]

    The fact that the party failed to foresee its outrageously unprecedented success is not a problem with the PR system. It’s simply a party failing to foresee an outrageously successful outcome. Not enough candidates on the list. Nothing else.
    I bet all the parties have lists as long as their arm next election!

  17. Putting signs up when local works are completed is hardly new. Two hundered metres up my street is a sign from 2007 when the Federal Government funded two hundred metres of ashphalt.

    I see nothing particularly wrong with telling people that the Government is spending money in their area. Becomes a bit tawdry two or three years later as it reminds people that the Government’s done nothing for them in years.

  18. Methusla lived nine-hundred years?

    [But who calls that livin’, when go gal will give in,
    To no man that is nine-hundred years?]

    Ira Gershwin, Porgy & Bess. Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

  19. The previous government had rules that all Federally funded projects had to be signed to indicate the source of the funds. There were even rules on the size of the signs, and Ministerial advisors got mightly cross if they weren’t correct. The project could be built terribly but they were happy if the signs were right 🙁

  20. Sorry Fulvio 🙂

    Don’t get me wrong, Japan badly needs a change of direction, so I’m glad Hatoyama won. I just don’t underestimate what he faces.

  21. Interesting snipped from today’s press… Senator Milne to raise discrepancies between evidence given to the Senate Economics Committee and Select Committee on Climate Policy by resource companies about the impact of an ETS on their businesses and information given ‘to the market’.

    Definitely an interesting issue. You’d imagine that it should be held that one has the responsibility to provide honest and accurate information to a committee and not just use it as a lobbying exercise.

  22. I should note that Nick Minchin has already signalled some hesitations with supporting a reference to the Privileges Committee, Senator Joyce has said he supports an inquiry (as long as it also investigates claims given by the ‘other side’ of the debate) and Senator Fielding is ‘awaiting advice’.

  23. Psephos or Fulvio

    Does anyone have any detail on the geographic spread of where the DPJ won seats? They really need to stop pork barrelling in rural reas to get their budget under control. I presume the LDP has hung onto those areas and lost ground in the big cities.

  24. The DPJ has won virtually all the urban seats. The only areas where the LDP has hung on to a fair number of seats is at the western end of Honshu and in Kyushu and Shikoku. This is the most rural part of the country, where semi-feudal relations are still strong and where LDP pork-barrelling has the most effect. in fact even “pork-barrelling” is too polite – it’s often outright bribery. Voters in urban Japan are mostly too prosperous to be bribeable.

    There is a schematic map at the Asahi Shinbun website

  25. 2277

    Some of the poor. Even Japan has poor people as do all societies. Do they have youth rebellion Communists in Japan?

  26. 2255

    Japan actually has a split electoral system where 180 of the seats are PR (in eleven electorates) and 300 are single member and the single member seats don`t count towards the PR. It is this system that allowed the DJP to loose seats by running candidates for the PR seats who were also running for single member seats.

  27. Thansk Adam. OK then Hatoyama could be in a good position to change things as required. it will be interesting to see what happens. It would be very good for Japan and us if their economy finally gets out of stalled mode.

  28. The shots inside the tennis stadium suggests a fairly elderly membership base, although that may well be true of all parties – as indeed it is in Australia. I suspect most of their vote comes from people over 50 – industrial workers, lower-level civil servants and teachers. These are the people who have done least well out of Japan’s postwar boom.

  29. BB@2265:

    [Under the single lonely desk lamp in Glen’s basement, the floating chads, neatly cut into small squares, each with a killer Is-This-The-End-Of-Rudd scenario inked onto them, suddenly aligned over the weekend, ouji board style. ]

    Another beauty!

    I don’t know what your story is, and you’re not telling, but that’s not the first time you’ve put electronic pen to paper with superbly directed malice aforethought, I’ll be bound.

    Give ’em heaps!

  30. jv

    [The Jonestown massacre and Jim Jones as leader of that cult is an object lesson in why religion in some form will continue.]

    The People’s Temple wasn’t a religious organisation. They were more of a miniature Communist dictatorship for the disaffected of the US. It still shows how a charismatic figure can manipulate malleable people.

  31. [malleable people]
    Like people who have grown up being taught that all morality stems from Authority, and the ability to suspend reason is one of the highest virtues?

  32. [The People’s Temple wasn’t a religious organisation. ]
    It was both a religious and a Marxist organisation. Jim Jones convinced his followers that he was the reincarnation of both Jesus and Lenin.
    [It still shows how a charismatic figure can manipulate malleable people.]
    Using a mixture of religious and political dogma.

  33. Musrum,

    By that criteria we’re all malleable to some extent; whether it be law and order, faith, membership of a political party or being married.

  34. [By that criteria we’re all malleable to some extent; whether it be law and order]
    You don’t see a difference between following road rules and being convinced by someone (who claims to be the reincarnation of Jesus) to drink cyanide?

    The fact many people realise that morality doesn’t come from a divine source suggests that not everyone is gullible or malleable.

  35. [The fact many people realise that morality doesn’t come from a divine source suggests that not everyone is gullible or malleable.]

    Ho hum. You might as well just have written “people who agree with me are more intelligent than people who don’t”.

    Talk about a circular argument.

  36. I presume in this instance we mean malleable/manipulable in the sense that people can be induced to act against their own (or the society’s) self interest?

    In this respect convincing people to obey the road rules is hardly the same as some religeous tenants. Likewise its nothing remarkable when people believe sensible moral rules that happen to be taught by religeons.

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