Newspoll’s latest state results for South Australia have appeared on their website (hat tip to Sykesie). The poll covers a sample of 873 from a time frame listed as “July-August”, so it was presumably conducted entirely after Isobel Redmond assumed the leadership on July 8. Labor’s two-party lead is at 56-44, the same result as the previous January-March survey. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and the Liberals to 33 per cent, with the Greens up one to 11 per cent and others up one to 12 per cent. However, there are some very encouraging results for the Liberals in leadership ratings. Redmond’s approval rating is a healthy 43 per cent, compared with a disapproval rating of just 10 per cent. While Mike Rann retains a handy lead of 46-27 as preferred premier, this is the narrowest it has been during his premiership with two exceptions: the 43-28 he recorded immediately after assuming office, and an aberrant 48-30 in July-September 2008. Rann’s approval rating is steady on 51 per cent, but his disapproval is up three to 40 per cent.
[I can guarantee you there are more people closer to Stalinism, and Marxism generally, in the Labor Party than Lee Rhiannon.]
Should I be voting for them then?
I have a lot of time for the Greens, but Rhiannon is the last of the Green Senate candidates I would want elected. Just saying.
[vote1 The Democrats are a party of the past, and the DLP are the party of the future]
Best joke of the week LOL!
Both parties are parties of the past. Both spent decades with considerable influence on Australia politics. Current politics revolves around three parties – Labor, Liberal, Green.
Any party with parliamentary representation is a part of current politics, including the Nats and FFP, who given the state of the Senate clearly could even be considered a big part of current politics. We don’t live in a 3 party system Bob.
(So, yes, the DLP is a part of current politics in Victoria).
Hamish,
Not to mention all those Independants?
Bob,
You’re never ending ignorance is breathtaking.
[Any party with parliamentary representation is a part of current politics, including the Nats and FFP, who given the state of the Senate clearly could even be considered a big part of current politics. We don’t live in a 3 party system Bob.
(So, yes, the DLP is a part of current politics in Victoria).]
The Nats and Greens have more than 1 MP, have been around for a while, and don’t get their MPs elected by flukes of preferences.
FFP and DLP are flukes who won’t last long, and whose votes at polls and elections remain abysmal 🙂
[You’re never ending ignorance is breathtaking.]
Your. Don’t bother with an apology though, probably best to be thought of as a fool rather than open your mouth and remove all doubt 🙂
bob,
There’s certainly no doubt about you then, is there?
Bob, My understanding is that FF has 2 upperhouse members in SA parliament at the moment. The polls that various agencies take around Australia generally(mostly) list the current parties that have obtained elected representation and when they drop below party status they only get listed as indep..
[My understanding is that FF has 2 upperhouse members in SA parliament at the moment. The polls that various agencies take around Australia generally(mostly) list the current parties that have obtained elected representation and when they drop below party status they only get listed as indep..]
Let’s take a stroll down Newspoll shall we?
The Newspoll result directly before the 2006 election and the first Newspoll after the 2006 election, for October to December 2006. Both polls saw FF with 3%, and the Greens with 4%. At the 2006 election, they got 5.9% and 6.5% respectively. Since the 2006 election, FF have polled: 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1. Green: 4, 6, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 8, 13, 10, 11.
Need I say I single word more? Need I even have typed this sentence? It speaks completely for itself.
The right don’t have a need for a minor party, because the Liberal Party are plenty right. Labor has the centre covered, with the Greens taking up the left.
As for two members, the SA lower house requires only a small vote to gain a seat. They’ve one seat in 02 and 06. But it seems Newspoll says FF are dead in the water.
As for the DLP, they still continue to gain piddly results at elections and don’t even get a mention on Newspoll. One MP through a lucky pref flow (think Fielding) on a tiny vote does not equal success.
I put to William or Possum:
Have the Greens ever increased their vote so rapidly? 4, 6, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 8, 13, 10, 11 is a double to treble vote in less than 3 years.
60
I would suggest that the main reasons are
It is an Australia wide trend that SA has no reason why it would not be part of
Mike Rann
Mark Parnell
[It is an Australia wide trend that SA has no reason why it would not be part of]
Where else was the Green Newspoll vote at 4% in late 2006 and has been in double digits since mid last year?
bob,
Ever heard of a souffle?
62
The increase in the mainland state Green vote to over 10%. SA had been a little behind on this but is now not.
[Ever heard of a souffle?]
Food isn’t/aren’t political parties.
[The increase in the mainland state Green vote to over 10%. SA had been a little behind on this but is now not.]
Errr that wasn’t the question. I asked if the Green vote had ever increased so rapidly.
The state election results in Victoria went form 1.15% in 1999 to 9.73 in 2002 and only part of this was due to going from standing candidates in a minority of seats to standing them in almost all seats.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/State1999resultbypartydistrict.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/State2002resultbypartydistrict.html
You’re referring to the lower not the upper house…
68
If I had been referring to the Legislative Council then I would have posted these links.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/state1999resultbypartyprovince.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/state2002resultbypartyprovince.html
Good to see Rupert’s party on the nose in SA. Maybe he’ll run a “Stop the Job Rot” headline in his horrible little rag “The Advertiser”.
Goanna (46),
40 years ago, I thought the DLP was the party of the future, but even then it wasn’t. In 1970, Frank McManus polled over 19 per cent of the Victorian vote, the DLP polled 11 per cent nationally, and it elected 3 senators. That was the high water mark, and it disguised the long-term decline in the party’s support, which is why it disbanded in 1978 in Victoria, its home state. It now polls around 1 per cent of the vote. Occasionally it does better, but it does not have the natural constituency that the Greens, for example, have. It should have responded more rationally to the election of the Whitlam Government in 1972. It should not have been conned by the Liberals into supporting the deferral of Supply in 1974. It should have emphasised its green credentials more, given its leading role in adopting environmental policies. It shoud have been more positive. It should have abandoned its anti-ALP preferencing strategy. There are a lot of “should haves”, but they are not history and none of them happened. The new DLP is destined to remain on the edges of politics.
The DLP may win a seat now and again. After all, Peter Kavanagh did, not by a fluke, as some say, but by astute preference deals. He is likely to get ALP preferences again, but he may not have the temporary micro-parties like People Power to give him the initial boost that he would need.
There are ALP members who think that the Greens are the ALP’s natural allies. This is false. Hard heads in the ALP know that the Greens are rivals, not allies. These hard heads are quite happy to deny the Greens the balance of power and would quite happily have one less Green and one more DLP MLC as it would give the Victorian Labor Government more options in the Legislative Council . It should not be forgotten that the new DLP preferences selected ALP candidates in return for getting ALP preferences.
@bob1234, FF are not dead in the water. They will have every booth covered with people handing out HTV cards. I’d say they will win another seat.
I agree with Scott – Family First are in with a good chance. The Xenophon vote from 2006 has to go somewhere. It will probably flow to Liberals most strongly, then Family First and the Greens. You’d have to reckon that a fair number of dissatisfied Liberals voted for Xenophon last time.
And I in turn will agree with Scott and syksie.
In the goodness of time the faithful will be told to man the polls [even if they are female] and FF types and ads on teev and the radio will pop up out of nowhere.
I dunno if they will win another seat but they will definitely get more votes than the recent polls suggest.
Hamish @ 51,
I agree with you on Lee Rhiannon. I’ll vote below the line and preference Cate Faehrmann, who I believe is the future of the Green party in NSW and a far better representative to send to the federal senate chamber. I just hope my voting pen won’t run out of ink….
Should I repeat it again?
Since the election, FF have polled: 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.
Four 1’s in a row? This is Democrat polling. FF are dead in the water.
I’m not disagreeing bob1234 with their lousy poilling results and I truly hope FF are ‘dead in the water’.
But I have been at polling booths out in the donga in SA and FF had reps there and were running them on a roster they had so many personnel to burn.
When the state election is due they will emerge into the light, they have plenty of money for media advertising and there are vacuums left by the Dems and Xenophon to fill.
So I reckon they will score a bit less than their traditional election vote of around 5% but if they get helped by somebody’s preferences I wouldn’t be surprised if they score an upper house member.
Anyway we have about a year to finding out.
Family First and the Greens are both likely to win an upper house seat. Labor’s vote looks OK at the moment but it’s not rusted on. With dissident groups like the bikies and opponents of the RAH move eating away at the edges, cleanskin Liberal Isobel Redmond will gain more traction is coming months. Our Attorney-General is copping flak for some undiplomatic remarks which have resulted in a $200,000 payout to the Deputy Chief Magistrate. Don’t be surprised if it’s a very tight election.
The Nationals look more likely to win an upperhouse seat than both those irrelevant minor parties.
[cleanskin Liberal Isobel Redmond will gain more traction is coming months]
No she won’t. So far she’s kept her trap shut hoping to do a John Howard/1996. The problem is the electorate aren’t particularly angry with Rann nor has Labor been in power for 13 years.
As soon as Redmond has the blowtorch of an election campaign put upon her, the full lightweightedness of her will be revealed to everyone. She’s almost (almost) as bad as Chapman.
From #78
” Don’t be surprised if it’s a very tight election.”
I copped some flak here after the Frome election for suggesting exactly that.
The dramatic demise of MHS has widened the gap IMO but I agree that Redmond will get a good run from our local media and that gap will narrow slightly.
Being a lightweight, or worse has never really been a disadvantage for a SA Liberal leader we have had several featherweights who nevertheless gained success.
Is anyone as bad as Chapman?
[we have had several featherweights who nevertheless gained success.]
Which Liberal leaders won government from opposition? Tonkin and Brown were so many miles ahead of Chapman.
Redmond even.
Brett Mason in the Senate just said the chamber was filled with liberals, socialists, and economic conservatives!! Who’s who exactly?
whoops wrong thread!
Family First will get around 2% as a base vote – there are about 20,000 members of the Assemblies of God church and similar groups. And they certainly get rounded up for election duty. But they have very little appeal beyond their core religeous constituency as their performance has shown over recent years. And people are wary of getting preachers into Parliament. Fielding is also lead in their saddlebags. Recruiting cast off right wing Libs like Bob Day and Robert Brokenshire wont do them much good. The good news is that their politicing has a good chance of splitting people off their church as the rank and file see better what their leaders think. One mistake the Greens have made before esp 5 or 6 years ago was to attack FF. Its a dead end and just gives oxygen to FF.
Chris C,
Re DLP.
Yes i agree with you on nearly every point u made.
I agree many mistakes were made, especially having to close a relationship with the Libs. They should have been more independent.
The current DLP is much more aligned to the ALP, and will vote with it much of the time, as has been proved by Peter Kavanagh in Vic Upper House.
I would have agreed there was no hope for the party 4 years ago, because most of it workers, supporters and voters were aged, and there was no future for the party.
However there has been a resurgenge in young memberships, especially since Peter Kavanagh has been elected.
Yes they will be a micro party for a few years but are reorganising all around Australia. it is only when they are based country wide that they will be regarded as a party to be taken seriously. This would happen if they could win Fieldings seat in the Senate, but i will admit it is unlikely.
Peter Kavanagh should have an increase in votes after being in parliment for 4 years, but will need a lot of luck and good preference deals to get over the line.
The next Federal and Victorian State election will have a decisive affect on whether the DLP has a future, or not.
What is most possible is that they will win an Upper House seat in Victoria, Kavanagh, or in another seat. Last Vic election the got a much higher vote in the northern suburbs, but still missed out by a small margin, due to preference deals going against them.
The one thing that gives them a better chance than 20 years ago is the decrease in the hate campain which was directed towards them back then.
A newer and younger generation are looking at new options, and are not affected the same by old ideology wars.
DLP will never be anything more than a 1-2% micro-party who never gain anything more than a seat here and there thanks to lucky breaks and preference deals.
Another telling sign that FF is sinking is the federal electorates in SA where their base is – Makin and Sturt – the bible belt areas. Makin went from 6% to 3.5%, Sturt went from 5% to 3.5%. And that was 2 years ago.
They’ll do better in an election. Many people don’t know who they are but will vote for the ‘family” party. As mentioned above, FF will have heaps of money and helpers to get out the vote.
Most people, even people with little interest in politics, upon hearing the words Family First are overcome with disgust. “They’re religious extremists”, etc! They don’t have a large pool of people that don’t dispise them to woo. Even if every single voter who likes them also votes for them they still wouldn’t come close to double digits.
THM,
What a sleazy, hateful post.
GG
Oh please, this is my perception of how the population view FF and the reaction I receive if the name is mentioned. I think similar comments could be made about a National Socialist or Bolshevik Party having a small pool from which to attract votes.
THM,
It’s a truly warped perception then.
[Most people, even people with little interest in politics, upon hearing the words Family First]
think “Steve Fielding”!
Oh what a beautiful present the federal FF have brought to the state FF.
😀
By people, I mean ‘young people’ – my peers. I don’t even think there is a Family First youth wing. I have never met a young person who admitted liking them and I know of plenty that detest them.
Anyway GG, where do you get off saying how sleazy and hateful my post was? Do you ever observe yourself? You rutinely come out with outragous slander. I was just sharing the results of some small scale personal polling.
THM,
Your confession to consorting with bigoted bogans is not a surprise. However, my understanding of the words “Most people” is somewhat wider than the narrow interpretation you give. There’s nothing particularly new or youthful about despising people for who they are. It’s caused a lot of grief and suffering throughout history.
I’m interested GG, since we are having this conversation can I get you on the record, can I get you to post these words “I do not hate the Greens” without comment or distortion?
By most people I meant, most people I hang out with which is mostly young people.
THM,
That’s not what you wrote and your lame nit picking doesn’t excuse your repulsive words which I presume you are not repudiating.
I don’t do requests.
No, I am not repudiating. I don’t think there is anything to be ashamed of in pointing out public perceptions. I never even mentioned my own perceptions of the party. You are just looking to pick a fight, thats all.