Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Two polls from Morgan, which as ever moves in mysterious ways. Without question the headline finding is the face-to-face poll of 1832 respondents conducted over the previous two weekends, showing a healthy spike in Labor’s two-party lead to 60.5-39.5 from 57.5-42.5 at the previous such poll. The 574-sample phone poll was probably conducted to get more bang from their buck out of some other survey they were conducting for some other reason. It shows Labor’s lead at a more modest 57-43. Furthermore:

• Northern Territory MP Alison Anderson, on whose whim (along with fellow independent Gerry Wood) hangs the future of Paul Henderson’s floundering government, has advised that Tuesday will be nothing less than “the biggest day in Territory history”, which should alarm survivors of Cyclone Tracy and the 1942 air raids. Tuesday was to be the day Anderson would make known her attitude to the government’s future, but it’s presumably been brought forward a day now that Speaker Jane Aagaard has agreed to a request from Anderson, Wood and the CLP for parliament to resume on Monday. Notice will then be given of a no-confidence motion on Friday, which if successful – and given the pitch of Anderson’s rhetoric, any other outcome would be an enormous anti-climax – will result in either a new election or an immediate transfer of power to the Terry Mills-led CLP. The procedure for such a motion was established late last year in legislation establishing fixed four-year terms, which like similar legislation in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia provides for an escape clause in the event of no-confidence or blocked supply. As Antony Green explains, it thus marks a test case for the aforementioned states, which have never experienced such a situation in the fixed term era. If the motion passes, the parliament will have eight days to back an alternative government, after which the Administrator will have the authority to issue writs for an election which the Chief Minister will be obliged to advise. The government’s ongoing crisis reached its current pitch on Tuesday when Anderson quit the ALP – not as she foreshadowed due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of an indigenous housing program, but because she blamed Henderson for an allegedly racist article about her and other indigenous MPs in Saturday’s edition of the Northern Territory News. The same day saw Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour return to the Labor fold after two months of independence, leaving the numbers at Labor 12, CLP 11, independents two. While Anderson’s tone of certainty might be taken as a clue, Wood’s precise attitude remains unclear: although of presumably conservative sympathies, he has expressed concern at the CLP’s readiness to govern, and was quoted this week saying an election was “certainly an option”. Anderson tells The Australian her gauge of the public mood is that there is “a push for an election so that they can teach Hendo a lesson”.

• Talk of John Della Bosca challenging Nathan Rees for the New South Wales premiership has focused attention on the theoretical prospect of a leader sitting in the upper house. While dismissive of the rumours, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian muses that Della Bosca “could serve a symbolic first 100 days in the Legislative Council and hope to have gained sufficient traction by that point to make the switch feasible”. He also notes that in the current environment, no lower house seat is so safe for Labor that Della Bosca could be guaranteed to win a by-election even if a sitting member agreed to make way. The Sydney Morning Herald reports party operatives hope Della Bosca can assume Bankstown from Tony Stewart by forging a deal in which Stewart receives an apology for his sacking over an incident involving a staff member last year, for which he is suing the government. Another Herald report mentions Riverstone, where John Aquilina has said he will not contest the next election. Della Bosca’s home patch, Gosford, is deemed unsuitable in part due to the lingering local unpopularity of his wife Belinda Neal following the Iguana’s episode, but also because it is too marginal and sitting member Marie Andrews would be unwilling to make way in any case. The Herald reports that a move to Bankstown “could pave the way for a graceful exit from politics for Ms Neal”, who is unlikely to retain preselection in her Gosford-based federal seat of Robertson. It will be recalled that when Barrie Unsworth was parachuted into Rockdale at a 1986 by-election to assume the premiership upon Neville Wran’s retirement, he suffered a 17 per cent dive in the primary vote and came within 54 votes of defeat. In May, Malcolm Mackerras wrote an article in The Australian decrying what he saw as the outdated convention that places leaders in the lower house, complaining that “New South Wales has Nathan Rees as Premier when John Della Bosca should be premier”, and suggesting the federal Liberals “should replace Julie Bishop as its federal deputy leader with Senator Nick Minchin and explicitly not ask Minchin to transfer to the House of Representatives”.

Christian Kerr of The Australian notes the British Conservatives have “turned a PR disaster into a triumph” by conducting an American-style open primary to choose the successor to one of many MPs disgraced in the country’s expenses scandal. Having done so, the party has given “everyone in the constituency a stake in the success of their candidate”. The New South Wales Nationals have decided to hold such a vote in one yet-to-be-chosen seat for the next state election.

• Antony Green comments on the potential availability of various double dissolution triggers, and on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme bill in particular, where the Coalition appears to be playing a good hand with its apparent plan to oppose it at the second reading.

• Danna Vale, Liberal member for the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, has announced she will quit at the next election. The margin in Hughes was cut from 8.6 per cent to 2.2 per cent at the 2007 election, and by Antony Green’s reckoning the redistribution proposal unveiled yesterday will further reduce it to 1.1 per cent – less than a sitting member’s personal vote is generally reckoned to be worth. No word yet on who might be up for the tough task of keeping the seat in the Liberal fold.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has published a report recommending that consideration be given to adopting the weighted inclusive Gregory method for surplus transfers in upper house elections, as opposed to the (non-weighted) inclusive Gregory method currently employed both in Victoria and for the Senate. Under weighted inclusive Gregory, which was introduced in Western Australia at the last election, the system achieves mathematical perfection of a sort with every individual vote cut up and distributed among the final quotas at equal value. The inclusive Gregory method saves time, but it means individual votes which are used in surplus transfers more than once in the count are inflated in value on the second and subsequent occasions. Usually only small handfuls of votes are involved, but like anything these could be decisive in the event of a close result.

• The abolition of Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid threatens an interesting Labor preselection for one of the seats which have moved into its turf: Parramatta, Blaxland and McMahon, as Lowe has been renamed. Antony Green has composed what promises to be a headline-grabbing post noting that the New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australian redistributions (only proposals in the first two cases) have between them given Labor a notional boost of five seats. Those wishing to discuss these matters are asked to do so on the New South Wales redistribution thread.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

777 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. GP
    I don’t think we can stop trying to help them. Australia profited by displacing Aboriginal people, we do owe it to them to keep trying. Also it’s not true that it is a total failure, there are plenty of Aboriginal people who have achieved much in this country through the support of government agencies.

  2. Adam and “supporters”. Looking at the issue of Indigenous people in Australian society without a serious look at history just perpetuates the typical view that Indigenous people need to be like the rest of society in order to succeed.
    We could start with a moderately well funded multilingual education that would allow Indigenous people from more remote and urban areas half a chance to feel at home in our institutions.

  3. I suppose we must remember that while our outlook and skills have a lot to do with mainstream Australia’s wealth, it is our possession of Australia itself that has been critical in our current prosperity.

    Australia was acquired from someone else, who didn’t want to hand it over. Does it matter what the former possessors would or would not have done with it if we had not rocked up?

    Whether or not we can help, we definitely owe. Big time. I’ll be honest and say that I don’t like that fact. But it’s still there.

  4. [Australia was acquired from someone else, who didn’t want to hand it over.]

    Phillips original commission is often overlooked……..

  5. Here are the operative parts of the Treaty of Waitangi.

    [1. The Chiefs of the Confederation of the United Tribes of New Zealand and the separate and independent Chiefs who have not become members of the Confederation cede to Her Majesty the Queen of England absolutely and without reservation all the rights and powers of Sovereignty which the said Confederation or Individual Chiefs respectively exercise or possess, or may be supposed to exercise or to possess over their respective Territories as the sole sovereigns thereof.

    2. Her Majesty the Queen of England confirms and guarantees to the Chiefs and Tribes of New Zealand and to the respective families and individuals thereof the full exclusive and undisturbed possession of their Lands and Estates Forests Fisheries and other properties which they may collectively or individually possess so long as it is their wish and desire to retain the same in their possession; but the Chiefs of the United Tribes and the individual Chiefs yield to Her Majesty the exclusive right of Preemption over such lands as the proprietors thereof may be disposed to alienate at such prices as may be agreed upon between the respective Proprietors and persons appointed by Her Majesty to treat with them in that behalf.

    3. In consideration thereof Her Majesty the Queen of England extends to the Natives of New Zealand Her royal protection and imparts to them all the Rights and Privileges of British Subjects.]

    Of what relevance is this treaty to our current circumstances?

    1. The Crown already has sovereignty over Australia. It can’t be retrospectively ceded by the indigenous Australian community.
    2. Indigenous Australians already have de jure and/or de facto control over most of the lands where they actually live.
    3. Indigenous Australians are already Australian citizens.

  6. No 702

    We’re all aware of the history Wakefield. The problem is policy constantly made with a view to the past doesn’t solve the problems that currently plague indigenous people. It just perpetuates the cycle of welfare dependency and poor health and education outcomes.

  7. [Shows On,

    but not the Creator.]
    And what created the Creator? And what created the creator of the Creator? See, you’ve proved nothing, you’ve just produced a logical worm hole instead of a possibly true answer to a complex question.

    If there was a creator s/he must’ve been a screw up, hence humans have appendages and organs that don’t do anything, and jaws that aren’t big enough to fit all our teeth. Only a hopeless designer would make such stupid mistakes.

  8. The time has come for some tough decisions, nice words are all good but we have to decide to either accept the current problems facing indigenous people or say enough is enough, now we all know that mistakes were made but living in the past has never solved a problem.

    This problem affects City based indigenous people, anyone who knows Melbourne will be familar with various people who spend their lives walking around begging for money or drunk or stoned, i have seen these people paint sniffing and whilst i know drugs are a community wide problem but to watch members of a 40,000 culture reduced to sniffing into a plastic bag needs to be addressed

    I do not accept that these people should be allowed to waste themselves in this manner because we the community are afraid of upsetting some cultural senitivity.

    A treaty will acheive little, most Australians see them as a part of the community but sadly they do not see it that way for reasons of self pity, at somepoint we need to question the value of the status quo.

    I understand that its a tricky issue and i wish there was a simple solution but there is no such thing and we can continue to talk about it as though things cannot be changed.

    This debate brings me to the broader welfare debate, a debate that the Howard Government completely stuffed up and while Rudd has improved uipon those failed policies he still has someway to go.

    I think its time that the indigenous community leadership and i mean the leadership is sat down and made quite clear that has leaders they are a serious let down.

  9. Too many indigenous people have acheived things and we should recongise those people has role models, but this goes to confirm the poit why are some doing well and some are not, clearly this answer will provide a direction to any possible solutions.

  10. Ad
    No cliches, just plain strine.

    the abs have been rooted from day1,lied tried and in some cases fried.

    no treaty=no respect,dignity or “sense of place”

    your strident defence of the zionist cause, would be well served if applied locally and with same CRITERIA.
    Otherwise you are a gross hypocrite and a classic wolf in sheeps clothing.
    (sorry for the cliche, couldnt help meself)
    geddit

  11. Having a Treaty or cultural settlement document would be a good idea although not an answer in itself. The Apology mainly relates to the “Stolen Generations”. Its not dealing with dispossession, loss of culture etc. Native title and land claims provide some basis for Reconciliation long term but on their own they don’t produce a lot. Some groups get a lottery ticket by being able to negotiate large sums for certain mining or development activities on their lands but the figures are nothing like the level of wealth which now drives the Australian economy. A Treaty can be an affirmation of recognising issues of the past and looking for new ways in future. Waitangi is from a different era.

    I’m not for endless welfare – thats been a problem since day one – some blankets and flour in place of a home and rights over land. It creates dependency and is a dead end. There are plenty of ways of creating meaningful and paid activities – education, healthcare, maintaining cultural activities etc.

  12. GP – ‘symbolic gestures’ obviously are not enough. But the failures of the past do not mean that anything ‘symbolic’ has no place in future solutions. It is not enough, after 200 years of [insert whatever you want – it probably fits] to say ‘oh we let you be citizens 40 years ago, and have ATSIC fora few but that didn’t work so symbolism is out’. New Zealand and Canada to name two examples I know of, have done much better than Australia on a number of fronts in dealing with their indigenous populations and difficult pasts. Their approaches have both involved a recognition of special status, and creative approaches to political representation alongside attempts to improve financial and social standings. What Australia needs to do is take the problems seriously and develop a robust and engaged approach to the multitude of problems on several fronts. The movement towards any solution will require some dreaded symbolism and some pragmatic materialism.

  13. The bring them home report and the parliamently sorry was about respect and reaching out, a treaty may look nice but what can it acheive when the problems are social, economic and personal.

  14. I don’t think there’s anyone from the “left” who do anything other than struggle to try and find some way of making things better for the people who were totally screwed by our arriving.
    Still think if you abuse your kids, they should be removed.

  15. Pseph and GP,
    Can you find me any evidence that government subsidy/cost for someone living at, say Kintore or Maningrida, is higher that the cost of someone in Double Bay or Toorak?

  16. The problem with Native title is instead of being used to bring communities together our silly politicians decided to play games and instead of doing the hard yeard we finished up with Hansen and her types directing policy.

  17. [And what created the Creator? And what created the creator of the Creator?]

    Eric’s mum and then her mum.

    And I would hazard a guess that her mum created her.
    😉

  18. [The Apology mainly relates to the “Stolen Generations”. Its not dealing with dispossession, loss of culture etc.]
    But hasn’t our justice system and the Native Title Act gone a long way to recognising that our continent was inhabited before European settlement, and that the old doctrine of Terra Naulius was both morally and legally bankrupt?

    Europeans brought a lot of bad things, but one excellent thing they brought was a tradition of liberal democracy, sure this system was imposed, but it is a system that changes and evolves and adapts, and that can change. It is up to indigenous Australians to organise in a way so that they can be part of the system, and change it so it reflects who they are and want to be. They have to make that happen, it can’t be done for them.

  19. No 715

    The NZ situation is not comparable because it developed from a different history as Adam earlier. As for the Inuits in Canada, I can’t comment because I don’t know enough about them.

  20. ShowsOn! has hit the nail on the head! maybe it is the case but i would have expected indigenous people to have a higher representation within rural councils and within the branches of our major parties.

  21. [Can you find me any evidence that government subsidy/cost for someone living at, say Kintore or Maningrida, is higher that the cost of someone in Double Bay or Toorak?]
    Shouldn’t someone living in Double Bay or Toorak receive more INIDRECT subsidies such as government payments on schools, hospitals etc because they are in a heavily populated area?

  22. No 718

    The point is that the subsidy shouldn’t happen AT ALL because if they were living closer to cities and regional towns, they would have greater access to education opportunities, jobs and health services such that they can provide for themselves and their families. Living in a segregated outpost of drunkenness and abuse on the teat of the government is thoroughly unacceptable.

  23. Colonial governments/socities are very good at telling Indigenous people to move on, don’t drag up the past etc. People want respect and we are in a position to provide it in many ways. Its true that for many Indigenous people the problems are just too hard and they don’t make it past the drugs and violence which they grow up with and bedevils their lives.
    But plenty of other Indigenous people work hard to keep their communities functioning are are prepared to meet us at least half way and look for serious solutions. They want their kids to have a better life but they don’t want to be forced to give up their culture in the process and they should not be forced to by us insisting on English being the first language in schools, for example.

  24. [expected indigenous people to have a higher representation within rural councils and within the branches of our major parties.]
    Well that’s up for them to participate, white people can’t force them to do this.

  25. Geez, Shows, that’s a huge, huge call. Could I suggest the performance of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition Leader and his wonderful Senator mate, Erica Betz, over recent days and weeks, might actually turn anyone off the local manifestation of liberal democracy?

  26. Couldn’t it motivate people to get in and fix the system?

    And of course, without an open democracy like ours, you’d never find out about politician’s acting shonkily.

  27. Shows On – it not very wise to just say – participate in our system on our terms. Clearly that doesn’t work and for a range of reasons. It also causes the rest of us a problem. We need to understand the history and cultural reasons why we are where we area – otherwise we’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

  28. Gusface!! I agree with you but if they are not willinging to get involved why should they have special seats in parliament when the potential opportunities already exist.

  29. I’m aware that there are a lot of practical problems with the US system of granting casino licenses to native peoples on reservations, and I’m not advocating it be used here.

    But isn’t there is a delicious symbolism in it, receiving money directly from mainstream America’s addiction to gambling? As if the dispossessed were allowed to tap into the slowly dripping lifeblood that constantly leaks from the dominant society.

    I bet some native Americans chuckle bleakly about it.

  30. [Shows On – it not very wise to just say – participate in our system on our terms. ]
    But the system can be changed it isn’t rigged or fixed, all they need to do is convince most Australians to support their ideas.
    [Gusface!! I agree with you but if they are not willinging to get involved why should they have special seats in parliament ]
    I don’t like the idea of any group getting reserved seats in parliament. They should be awarded democratically.

  31. No 735

    Wakefield, you keep repeating the same meaningless platitudes about understanding the history and culture etc etc.

    You can’t help people that are unwilling to help themselves.

  32. No 740

    [I don’t like the idea of any group getting reserved seats in parliament. They should be awarded democratically.]

    I must agree.

  33. [oopps sorry ShownOn i read your comment as thought it came from Gusface.]

    well kinda,he has the brains, I have the looks.

  34. GP – All of these situations have different histories, that doesn’t mean that there are not many analogous elements in their cases, or that we can’t learn from them. Indigenous populations often perform poorly by any number of indicators. The fact that places like Canada and NZ have achieved comparatively positive outcomes as opposed to Australia and the US should mean that any empiricist not wanting to go down the path of the bleeding heart symbolist should study what those states have done. Symbolism and political representation (through complex MMR systems) have been two central elements to the long term policy approaches in both places.

  35. Anyone can join a political party as long as they are Australian and as far as i am concerned we all consider them to be Australian

  36. [Anyone can join a political party as long as they are Australian and as far as i am concerned we all consider them to be Australian]

    And wasn’t Australia’s first Inigineous Politican the late Neville Bonner elrcted a South Australian Liberal Senator ?

  37. [Anyone can join a political party as long as they are Australian ]
    If you ask Michael ‘Stacker’ Johnson you don’t need to be an Australian, and you don’t even need to live in Australia.

  38. No they are undemocratic, i just loook at the current political structure and see that it is possible for Indigenous people to be involved in the political system.

    I meantioned earlier that past of the problem is the general failure of the welfare system that actually locked people out of opportunities rather than moved them towards opportunities, this is particulr true with how we treat people on DSP.

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