Two polls from Morgan, which as ever moves in mysterious ways. Without question the headline finding is the face-to-face poll of 1832 respondents conducted over the previous two weekends, showing a healthy spike in Labor’s two-party lead to 60.5-39.5 from 57.5-42.5 at the previous such poll. The 574-sample phone poll was probably conducted to get more bang from their buck out of some other survey they were conducting for some other reason. It shows Labor’s lead at a more modest 57-43. Furthermore:
• Northern Territory MP Alison Anderson, on whose whim (along with fellow independent Gerry Wood) hangs the future of Paul Henderson’s floundering government, has advised that Tuesday will be nothing less than “the biggest day in Territory history”, which should alarm survivors of Cyclone Tracy and the 1942 air raids. Tuesday was to be the day Anderson would make known her attitude to the government’s future, but it’s presumably been brought forward a day now that Speaker Jane Aagaard has agreed to a request from Anderson, Wood and the CLP for parliament to resume on Monday. Notice will then be given of a no-confidence motion on Friday, which if successful – and given the pitch of Anderson’s rhetoric, any other outcome would be an enormous anti-climax – will result in either a new election or an immediate transfer of power to the Terry Mills-led CLP. The procedure for such a motion was established late last year in legislation establishing fixed four-year terms, which like similar legislation in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia provides for an escape clause in the event of no-confidence or blocked supply. As Antony Green explains, it thus marks a test case for the aforementioned states, which have never experienced such a situation in the fixed term era. If the motion passes, the parliament will have eight days to back an alternative government, after which the Administrator will have the authority to issue writs for an election which the Chief Minister will be obliged to advise. The government’s ongoing crisis reached its current pitch on Tuesday when Anderson quit the ALP – not as she foreshadowed due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of an indigenous housing program, but because she blamed Henderson for an allegedly racist article about her and other indigenous MPs in Saturday’s edition of the Northern Territory News. The same day saw Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour return to the Labor fold after two months of independence, leaving the numbers at Labor 12, CLP 11, independents two. While Anderson’s tone of certainty might be taken as a clue, Wood’s precise attitude remains unclear: although of presumably conservative sympathies, he has expressed concern at the CLP’s readiness to govern, and was quoted this week saying an election was “certainly an option”. Anderson tells The Australian her gauge of the public mood is that there is “a push for an election so that they can teach Hendo a lesson”.
• Talk of John Della Bosca challenging Nathan Rees for the New South Wales premiership has focused attention on the theoretical prospect of a leader sitting in the upper house. While dismissive of the rumours, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian muses that Della Bosca “could serve a symbolic first 100 days in the Legislative Council and hope to have gained sufficient traction by that point to make the switch feasible”. He also notes that in the current environment, no lower house seat is so safe for Labor that Della Bosca could be guaranteed to win a by-election even if a sitting member agreed to make way. The Sydney Morning Herald reports party operatives hope Della Bosca can assume Bankstown from Tony Stewart by forging a deal in which Stewart receives an apology for his sacking over an incident involving a staff member last year, for which he is suing the government. Another Herald report mentions Riverstone, where John Aquilina has said he will not contest the next election. Della Bosca’s home patch, Gosford, is deemed unsuitable in part due to the lingering local unpopularity of his wife Belinda Neal following the Iguana’s episode, but also because it is too marginal and sitting member Marie Andrews would be unwilling to make way in any case. The Herald reports that a move to Bankstown “could pave the way for a graceful exit from politics for Ms Neal”, who is unlikely to retain preselection in her Gosford-based federal seat of Robertson. It will be recalled that when Barrie Unsworth was parachuted into Rockdale at a 1986 by-election to assume the premiership upon Neville Wran’s retirement, he suffered a 17 per cent dive in the primary vote and came within 54 votes of defeat. In May, Malcolm Mackerras wrote an article in The Australian decrying what he saw as the outdated convention that places leaders in the lower house, complaining that “New South Wales has Nathan Rees as Premier when John Della Bosca should be premier”, and suggesting the federal Liberals “should replace Julie Bishop as its federal deputy leader with Senator Nick Minchin and explicitly not ask Minchin to transfer to the House of Representatives”.
• Christian Kerr of The Australian notes the British Conservatives have “turned a PR disaster into a triumph” by conducting an American-style open primary to choose the successor to one of many MPs disgraced in the country’s expenses scandal. Having done so, the party has given “everyone in the constituency a stake in the success of their candidate”. The New South Wales Nationals have decided to hold such a vote in one yet-to-be-chosen seat for the next state election.
• Antony Green comments on the potential availability of various double dissolution triggers, and on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme bill in particular, where the Coalition appears to be playing a good hand with its apparent plan to oppose it at the second reading.
• Danna Vale, Liberal member for the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, has announced she will quit at the next election. The margin in Hughes was cut from 8.6 per cent to 2.2 per cent at the 2007 election, and by Antony Green’s reckoning the redistribution proposal unveiled yesterday will further reduce it to 1.1 per cent – less than a sitting member’s personal vote is generally reckoned to be worth. No word yet on who might be up for the tough task of keeping the seat in the Liberal fold.
• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has published a report recommending that consideration be given to adopting the weighted inclusive Gregory method for surplus transfers in upper house elections, as opposed to the (non-weighted) inclusive Gregory method currently employed both in Victoria and for the Senate. Under weighted inclusive Gregory, which was introduced in Western Australia at the last election, the system achieves mathematical perfection of a sort with every individual vote cut up and distributed among the final quotas at equal value. The inclusive Gregory method saves time, but it means individual votes which are used in surplus transfers more than once in the count are inflated in value on the second and subsequent occasions. Usually only small handfuls of votes are involved, but like anything these could be decisive in the event of a close result.
• The abolition of Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid threatens an interesting Labor preselection for one of the seats which have moved into its turf: Parramatta, Blaxland and McMahon, as Lowe has been renamed. Antony Green has composed what promises to be a headline-grabbing post noting that the New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australian redistributions (only proposals in the first two cases) have between them given Labor a notional boost of five seats. Those wishing to discuss these matters are asked to do so on the New South Wales redistribution thread.
From Paul Kelly in today’s OO
[THIS is the week Australian politics entered the surreal: when Godwin Grech revealed his entrapment of the opposition, a gobsmacked Malcolm Turnbull said the saga was “almost beyond belief” and confessed regret at ever meeting Grech, and when the political media turned on Turnbull for failing to assume a Uriah Heep humility.
This issue is loaded with hypocrisy and incredulity. Its political utility is now close to exhausted; Turnbull has been seriously damaged but, more significantly, the Liberal Party is exposed as a shambles unable to unite behind Turnbull, yet devoid of any alternative, and confirming on a daily basis to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard that their onslaught has triggered the Liberal impulse to self-destruction. ]
Methinks Kelly may have spoken too soon
[There is no evidence whatsoever that Turnbull acted improperly. Nor is there any evidence that he intimidated, improperly influenced or encouraged Grech to give misleading evidence to the Senate committee.]
This might be true at the moment but Kelly IMO should have said “There is no evidence at this time…” and leave out the “whatsoever”.
The AFP must be close to handing their report to the PM. The Monday during the second week of sitting would be a good time.
Malcolm Mackerras is a fantasist. Whatever he thinks, we are not going to see a Premier sitting in the upper house.
On the other hand, has he overlooked the fact that the Federal Nationals already have their deputy leader in the upper house?
[It will be recalled that when Barrie Unsworth was parachuted into Rockdale at a 1986 by-election to assume the premiership upon Neville Wran’s retirement, he suffered a 17 per cent dive in the primary vote and came within 54 votes of defeat.]
On the same day as the Rockdale by-election, there was a by-election in which Labor lost Wran’s ‘safe’ seat of Bass Hill, right next to Bankstown.
This is weird. If he is not well why is he speaking to the whole universe?
He has spoken to the OZ at length, now Fielding. I can only assume he had spoken to the AFP. It looks like Grech is suffering attention deficit syndrome big time.
He should just shut-up.
[Mr Grech, who is in a hospital psychiatric ward, yesterday told Family First senator Steve Fielding by phone he was not well enough to attend a Senate privileges inquiry next week.
A spokesman for Senator Fielding said Mr Grech had told him he did not feel physically or mentally up to giving evidence. ”Steve has concerns for his health (and) thinks he needs to get on top of his health before he gives any evidence.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/libs-must-resolve-problems-says-nelson-20090807-ecya.html
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Finns,
With all the controversy over Abetz and Turnbull prepping a witness in advance of a Senate inquiry, just what is Fielding thinking?
Grech will never feel mentally up to being quizzed about his actions. Fielding not just an engineer and expert in global warming but now he’s into commenting on Grech’s health. Deep down Fielding would be happy for there to be no senate inquiry (doesn’t want to further damage the conservative brand) but he knows he can’t be an obstructionist on this one. It would help the conservative cause if a prime witness/suspect wasn’t able to appear.
Fielding realises its his one and only term in parliament. He is trying to put himself front and centre in a desparate bid for survival. That any politician would be discussing ANYTHING with grech as this point is mind boggling. At least it shows that Fielding will at least back an inquiry this time.
We should not forget that it is Victorian Labor’s fault that fielding is in parliament. He is clearly not up to the task
Guten Morgan!
Kelly very cocky about Turnbull being cleared of any other wrongdoing. A leak from the AFP perhaps??
Anrew, more likely to be a wild guess from Kelly. Look what rubbish he was writing on 20 June.
[Costello’s retirement has changed the atmospherics and sharpened antagonism between Rudd and Turnbull, pointing to a ferocious contest during the next year. Turnbull drew first political blood during a dramatic Senate hearing yesterday.
The significance of the evidence given to the Senate committee is threefold.
First, disclosures from Treasury seem to contradict statements to parliament made by Rudd and Wayne Swan, giving Turnbull an integrity argument against the government. This will infuriate Rudd, who is certain to give no quarter.
Second, the Treasury evidence suggests a “looking after the mates” government, with the Prime Minister’s and the Treasurer’s offices acting to assist Ipswich car dealer John Grant, who was a friend of Rudd and from whom the PM had been given a free car.
And, third, they highlight the inherent problems that arise in schemes such as OzCar and the Rudd Bank (designed to assist the commercial property sector) when government is involved with financial arrangements to assist businesses hit by the global financial crisis.
Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said yesterday that the policy defect in such financial measures sponsored by Rudd and Swan was that “the government finds itself under enormous pressure to do specific deals for favoured friends”. This will became an opposition mantra.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25661630-12250,00.html
Count out wind power as a significant help as a renewable energy source. Australian research shows it’s a dud, which we knew anyway.
[1. Wind power does not avoid significant amounts of greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Wind power is a very high cost way to avoid greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Wind power, even with high capacity penetration, can not make a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.]
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/08/08/does-wind-power-reduce-carbon-emissions/#more-1590
It’s time Paul Kelly retired!
Diogs,
A tragedy for emerging alternative energy technology advocates. I’m wondering whether this development will ruin the small but growing “fart in a bottle” industry.
[The answer to the question why Turnbull didn’t check his evidence is simple: this meeting was the confirmation. Grech came to Sydney with his brief and his documents. He was the ultimate source; there was nobody else to ask.]
More on Kelly’s article. This is a real digital divide here. No wonder old style print journalists cannot handle digital content.
In the paper or print world, a paper document is its own audit trail.
In the digital world, the printout of a digital document is not its own audit trial. You must audit trail back to the “original” digital copy, like email, with all of its document “properties” information for authentication.
So Paul, you are wRONg. Turnbull should ask Grech, we must have the digital copy to authenticate, a printout is not good enough.
Shaun Carney this morning was following the “no-one in the Real World is interested anyway” concept.
Funny that… when it looked like Rudd and Swan might be down for the count the obsessive treatment given to Utegate by the commentariat was all pervasive. Now that Turnbull’s for the chop, who cares?
Forget that Rudd and Swan didn’t start all this, or that a mole in Treasury was leaking like a sieve, even setting up – to the point of faking not just the famous email, but deliberately leaving a false document trail as well for the Opposition. Forget that Turnbull has shown his true, obnoxious colors (vital information for the public, I’d think). Forget that the whole bootstrapping exercise was designed to set up the two most important ministers in the government and entrap them in resignation, not for corruption but for the technical offence of “misleading parliament”. All those trees wasted on reporting something “the public aren’t interested in.” They’d rather see good governance.
Tell it to the Liberals, Shaun. And if you’ve already told them once, tell them again.
J-D @ 4
Bass Hill was lost with a 22% swing when Neville Wran retired. In classic style, it reverted to the ALP at the next election.
I wonder if it has crossed the machiavellian Frank Sartor’s mind that he should encourage Della to challenge, move to the lower house, and then have Della lose the by-election opening the way for Frank to become premier.
The NSW government shows that the ALP can do ‘rabble’ as well as the Libs when they put their mind to it!
[Shaun Carney this morning was following the “no-one in the Real World is interested anyway” concept.]
The opinion polls show that the Real World does care, although they are not as fussed as us obviously. Truffles dive to record low approval tells us that Carney is an idiot.
The only way that Fielding could hang on for another term is if there was a Double dissolution. The lower quota his only only chance.
Well, the Telegraph seems to think the Della coup story has legs, with a front page story suggesting that a large number of ministers are v. unhappy with the Rees-Tripodi axis, particularly its ‘razor gang’. But, the lower-house issue aside, why on earth would Della want to take up the premiership right now? It is a poisoned chalice of the first order. Whoever happens to be in the big office in Governor Macquarie Tower in 1.5 years’ time is absolutely guaranteed to lose the election. It is a safer bet than the Roosters taking out the wooden spoon this year. Why would he want to go down in history as the man who suffered one of the worst election defeats that NSW politics has ever seen?
BB@16:
Yeah, what BB said.
BB youre spot on. The media has been caught out. Having wildly exaggerated the importance of the ozcar issue in the first place (who called it a ‘gate’ anyway, and how the hell was this allowed to stick, after Howard has so many ‘gates’ that werent called gates), they cant just wriggle away now its blown up in the opposition’s face. what sweet karma
Finns,
The response of the “experienced” journos is telling a story about them as much as the utegate affair. You have this “Poor Malcom was tricked” meme and the “I’d do the same thing if in that situation” meme and there is now the emerging “Rudd should move on because the punters are bored with it all anyway”.
It seems to me that, as usual, Rudd and the Government have played a blinder. They have connected with the issue of taking personal responsibilty for mistakes, the indifference the Libs have to the truth as opposed to “what’s in it for them’, and the casual disrespect for people and institutions of the country.
I read somewhere that Curtin was once given information about a Liberal Cabinet Minister bribing a trade Union Official. He took it first to Menzies to see if there was any truth. Bit of a contrast to today’s Libs.
I find the en masse claims that there is ‘no evidence whatsoever’ that Turnbull did anything wrong amazing. Particularly from the same mob who continued to claim that Swan ‘still had questions to answer’ when the whole ridiculous thing blew up. The guy met a snoop and concocted a plan to bring down a government – a guy who clearly was a player not a whistleblower (‘we’, ‘ACT ALP’ etc.)
Seems the nerds of the press gallery are having school flashbacks, have been bullied and charmed by Turnbull, and don’t want to deliver the kicking he deserves lest they get stern eyes from him when they bump into each other in the cafe later. Any dropping by, harden up!
While I’m on rant, I’ve seen a few mentions of Shanahan and his gradual seeing of the light on here. His turn has been the most craven of the lot, and whether or not the ideological undertones are becoming more palatable, his credibility is about the lowest of the lot at that rag.
Would Carney care to explain the biggest drop in satis/disatis ratings EVER in newspoll history then??
Finns at #15
Not sure I agree with you there Finns, Wouldn’t a digital copy of the fake still be a fake?
How would having a digital copy of the email Grech showed to MT helped?
I would have thought the “Real World” was still interested but even Laurie Oakes is saying much the same.
http://tinyurl.com/kqenax
Pancho, I’ve made several comments about Shanahan appearing more balanced. Please dont confuse this with credibiilty. He has none. He is doing it for other reasons, perhaps to make himself more relevant
Fair distinction Andrew. I wasn’t meaning to have a go at you or anyone here, just the ethics of being afraid and/or not wanting to offend the bully/power when in a really important job. And while Turnbull seems to have most on a string (notable exception again A. Crabb) Shanas seems to be sleazing himself the other way, drawn to being a suck to power.
“Police sources say one of two men killed in a central Java shoot-out with police is Indonesia’s most wanted terrorist, Noordin Mohammed Top.”
Hooray for that. The performance of the Indonesian security forces recently has been a credit to the country, and also to those who largely trained them (us).
BM-dog
I’m assuming the BM stands for Benoit Mandelbrot but what is the -dog bit?
Schroedinger’s cat, Mandelbrot’s dog, Heissenberg’s goldfish.
#26, at least with a digital copy, you can authenticate by checking the properties of the copy such as header etc.
[The audience of under-25s helped by making it clear they were getting fed up with the Utegate affair and wanted politicians to focus again on issues more directly relevant to their daily lives.
This should be a warning to Kevin Rudd and his ministers.]
#27, Laurie forgot to mention “the audience of under-25s” was like 70% young Liberals. How convenience.
Dennis Atkins with one of the better pieces on what Bligh is doing in Queensland.
[The context has been lost but the meaning is crystal clear: “… I know it’s hard when you’re up to your armpits in alligators to remember you came here to drain the swamp.”
Bligh has picked up the reform challenge her predecessor Peter Beattie ignored and corruption-buster Tony Fitzgerald reminded us all of two weeks ago.
Having dared to accept this challenge, Bligh’s political life has become harder.
This is because the inevitable result of drawing attention to a problem – or, as in this case, a set of problems – is that the people and events that illustrate the problem will be thrown into sharp focus.
Despite the fact there is no direct allegation of illegality or wrongdoing relating to political donations, fundraising or the murky world of greed-driven lobbying, Bligh looks like she is at the centre of the rotten system.
She is up to her armpits in crocodiles. But she has to keep draining the swamp, which will expose more reptiles and make those who were happily hiding below the surface a lot angrier.]
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25896094-5016424,00.html
This is both a positive and a negative for the NT Govt.
The younger generation wont be happy with high prices and rents. Good for us who built our houses 10 years ago but very bad for those looking now. And it will get worse I imagine when Inpex start pouring in hundreds of millions of work and 2000 construction workers.
Today’s NT News political stories.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2009/08/07/73421_ntnews.html
Here is the Green Paper on Accountability which was released in Brisbane this week.
http://www.premiers.qld.gov.au/community-issues/open-transparent-gov/assets/integrity-and-accountability-paper.pdf
On the subject of upper house leaders of parties, I think that as the lower houses are the houses of government and usually more democratic than the upper houses and as such the party leader should come from the lower house when a party has seating there. There are a number of factors which make the upper houses less democratic than their lower house (but the mainland lower houses have less democratic single member systems).
Malaportionment (Commonwealth and WA)
Only partial elections (Commonwealth, SA and NSW)
Delay in start of term from election (Commonwealth and WA)
Single member electorates (Tas)
In Victoria however the Legislative Council is more democratic than the Legislative Assembly and thus should be where the government requires support.
Whats the wicked witch up to now?
[Memo to Janet Albrechtsen – your efforts to distract from Liberal leadership problems are awful. Stick to race-baiting.about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck ]
http://twitter.com/BernardKeane
I will tell you guys what the real world thinks. I met up with a couple of mates at a popular watering hole in the north west of Sydney last night and overheard a conversation from a group of people sitting behind us.
They all reckon that Turnbull kooked up a scheme with an informant to frame Rudd.
The next Newspoll should be a beauty. Records may fall. 🙂
[Records may fall.]
Centre, an Opposition Leader may fall but from a very low place.
BM-dog @ 20. It is a safer bet that NSW Labor will lose the next election. I have got my money on the Roosters this weekend.
How much extra does a NSWelsh ex-Premier walk off with, as opposed to an ex-Cabinet Minister?
That would seem to be the only possible carrot for Dosca-Bella. Unless he is being driven by the Stick…
I suspect Thomas Paine is the only sane person in the Top End. The only ones I know are total wingnuts. Maybe it’s the company I keep.
“BM-dog @ 20. It is a safer bet that NSW Labor will lose the next election. I have got my money on the Roosters this weekend.”
With the Count playing 5/8? No chance. Freddy’s tactical nous is comparable to Mal’s.
J-D @ #3: How does saying a leader should be able to sit in the upper house make Malcolm Mackerras a “fantasist”?
The repugs in the US are getting vocal at town hall meetings about health care reforms.
[Many people hoped that last year’s election would mark the end of the “angry white voter” era in America. Indeed, voters who can beswayed by appeals to cultural and racial fear are a declining share of the electorate.
But right now Mr. Obama’s backers seem to lack all conviction, perhaps because the prosaic reality of his administration isn’t living up to their dreams of transformation. Meanwhile, the angry right is filled with a passionate intensity.
And if Mr. Obama can’t recapture some of the passion of 2008, can’t inspire his supporters to stand up and be heard, health care reform may well fail.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/opinion/07krugman.html?_r=1
Mackerras’s argument shows that he doesn’t understand the basic principle of the Westminster system. One house must be recognised as the house which determines who should govern, while the other house functions as a house of review. That’s the whole point of bicameralism. If both houses have the same functions and status, why have two houses at all?
The leader of the government, who is accountable to the governing house, should therefore be a member of it. In fact there’s a good argument for having *no* ministers sitting in the upper houses.
It’s impossible to have a situation where the two houses have equal constitutional status. What if party A has a majority in house A, and party B has a majority in house B? Who has a mandate? Whom does the Crown commission?
It’s true that the rule that the lower house should be the governing one is only a convention based on the UK Parliament, in which the upper house is not elected. But since we need to have a governing house clearly distinct from the house of review, there’s no reason why the existing convention shouldn’t be followed.
This, incidentally, is also an argument for all members of the two houses *not* being elected simultaneously, as now happens in Vic and WA, and certainly not with the same electoral system. It should always be the case that only one house has a direct and current mandate, while the other house has a mandate to review, not to govern. The “overlapping mandates” system used in the Senate and in NSW and SA ensures this.