Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s two-party lead at a commanding 59-41, up from 57-43 last week and 56-44 the week before. Also featured are questions on whether the Liberals should support (51 per cent) or oppose (20 per cent) the government’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, whether the federal government should take over health services from the states (62 per cent support, 11 per cent oppose), whether they should take over all hospital services from the states (57 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose), how much support the government should provide for Australians who get into various kinds of trouble overseas, whether 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote (13 per cent yes, 79 per cent no), and whether respondents feel like they’re being worked too hard (yes). Elsewhere:

• Mia Handshin has unexpectedly withdrawn from her bid to win Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt, where she fell 0.9 per cent short in 2007. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail said the announcement came “within hours” of her being queried by the paper over her family’s involvement with the real estate group of former Entrepreneur of the Year Cathy Jayne Pearce, the collapse of which has cost investors more than $20 million. However, Michael Owen of The Australian reports Handshin’s withdrawal has “sparked speculation she will contest an eastern suburbs seat, Hartley, at the March state election, and the Hartley MP, Grace Portolesi, 41, will run in Sturt against Mr Pyne at the next federal election” (UPDATE: The ABC reports Portolesi denying she is interested in federal politics). A “Labor hardhead” quoted by Christian Kerr in the same paper described Handshin as “a potential premier”. Kerr said there had been earlier suggestions from the Labor camp that Handshin should replace perennial back-bencher Vini Ciccarello in the state seat of Norwood. However, with Ciccarello’s nomination confirmed this “seems out in the short term”, and former member Greg Crafter hopes to use his “clout in the branches” to eventually secure the seat for his son Sam, “an executive with gas giant Santos and a former adviser to Premier Mike Rann”. It should be noted that every seat named is none too safe for Labor: Sturt has been won by the party twice since its creation in 1949, most recently in 1969, Hartley was gained from the Liberals in the 2006 landslide, and Norwood was won narrowly when the Rann government came to power in 2002 and gave Labor its smallest swing in Adelaide in 2006.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews provides complete lists of candidates for the contested Liberal preselections in Wannon, Higgins, Aston and the state seat of Sandringham. Higgins and Sandringham are two-horse races, the former between front-runner Kelly O’Dwyer and Andrew Abercrombie, the latter between incumbent Murray Thompson and challenger Margaret Fitzherbert. In Wannon, the previously discussed Daniel Tehan, Rod Nockles, Louise Staley, Stephen Mitchell, Hugh Koch, Matt Makin, Elizabeth Matuschka and Katrina Rainsford are joined by Simon Price (unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur, previously mentioned as an aspirant for McArthur’s old seat of Corangamite) and one David Clark. In Aston, Nick McGowan, Sue McMillan, Darren Pearce and Alan Tudge are joined by proverbial bad penny Ken Aldred and a squadron of little-known contenders: Neil Angus, Terry Barnes, Michael Flynn, Michael Kabos and James Matheson.

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that former WA Police Union president Mike Dean has joined the Liberal Party, but will not as earlier rumoured contest the seat of Hasluck at the next federal election. Dean says he has decided not to proceed due to personal issues, but does not rule out a future career in state politics. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported last month that state Labor MPs John Quigley and Ben Wyatt said Dean had asked them for support in winning Labor preselection for Swan. He told Spagnolo that some in the ALP had “wrongfully presumed he was one of them” and that he had “broken some hearts I didn’t expect to break”.

• The Sunday Times also reports that Gallop-Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan “has delayed her decision on whether to join Kevin Rudd in Canberra”. It is open knowledge that the option of contesting Canning is available to her, but she is believed to be weighing up the option of staying in state politics with a view to assuming the leadership.

• Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett has floated the possibility of publicly funded election campaigns and spending caps for state lower house elections. His comments were in response to complaints by Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens candidate for Windermere during the May periodical upper house elections, about the stringent spending cap of $12,000 which exists for upper house elections.

• Speaking of the Tasmanian Legislative Council, Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin pulled off a historic win for the party in Saturday’s Pembroke by-election, which you can read all about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,380 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

Comments Page 47 of 48
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  1. [Speaking of paying for content. How much would you pay for access to all news.ltd sites? $50 a year? $75?.]

    0. One of the 100 or so bludgers can cut and paste it for a laugh every now and then but it will be good for our blood pressure not to see that crap.

  2. I knew none of you would pay anything 😆 but if all news sites were pay sites, you’re still paying nothing??

    (I actually don’t think Murdoch has any idea about what is happening, and I doubt I’d pay for anyhting – especially if abc.net is still giving me all the news I need (I can do my own analysis, and get pretty decent opinin here.)

    I guess the problem with my question is there is no way all news will be pay…

    How can they get the advertising to pay? Do they need to work with ISPs? Do they need to get google to start coughing up some money?

  5. [if all news sites were pay sites, you’re still paying nothing??]

    There will always be free news somewhere. News Ltd doesn’t publish news anyway, just lies and propaganda.

  8. Well what a hopeless joke that Clark was left out of the first three tests, he takes 3 for 7 in his first session back.

  9. [There will always be free news somewhere. News Ltd doesn’t publish news anyway, just lies and propaganda.]

    Their economic news is ok, but a lot of that is just sourced from elsewhere anyway

  11. [Well what a hopeless joke that Clark was left out of the first three tests, he takes 3 for 7 in his first session back.]

    Yep, the selectors need a good hard kicking

  13. [It would be extremely unusual if humans didn’t exhibit homosexual behaviour considering that other animals, including other primates, exhibit such behaviour.]

    Ms Pratt believes that humans aren’t related to primates. They are descended from Adam & Eve who were created about 6,000 years ago.

    Better catch up, Shows On!!!

  14. [Yep, the selectors need a good hard kicking]
    I wouldn’t of dropped Haurtiz though, I would’ve dropped Hussey to get Clark in the side. Our bowling has been too weak, we had to play 5 specialist bowlers in order to get the 20 wickets in order to win. If that meant dropping our worst performing batsmen, so be it.

  17. [Ms Pratt believes that humans aren’t related to primates. They are descended from Adam & Eve who were created about 6,000 years ago.]

    And it’s funny that one of her namesakes Senator Louise Pratt (who I don’t think is related) is a Lesbian 🙂

  19. Here my tips for you jokers to be entrepreneurial and make zillions:

    1. the old media advertising business models are collapsing
    2. nobody, i mean, nobody knows what’s next and what will work or wont work and how to make money.
    3. advertisers are looking for something new, not just eyeballs anymore
    4. It has to involve the mobile platform but what, where and how.

    [So, in the digital age of free content, the relationship between the size of audience and the size of one’s business is quite complex, perhaps even the inverse of what it once was. Look at Facebook, with 340 million unique visitors in June (the 4th largest website in the world) and its still unproven business model. Or the massively trafficked YouTube, which continues to struggle to become profitable.]

  20. On paying the Big Rupe: Nada.

    [Since I’m such a nice bloke, you all have my permission to cricket this thread up to your hearts’ content. I’ll leave it open when I put my new post up shortly, on which the normal rules of on-topicness will apply]

    Not that I am at all interested in the cricket, but the above from William has to qualify as one of the most humourous administrator posts of the year.

  22. I reckon Rupert has left it far too late (like about five years at least) to try to train people to pay for Internet news. You can always get news somewhere for free, and moreoever if you’re really interested in something there are always specialist sites that will give the best information.

    News Ltd sites aren’t even all that good compared to their peers like smh and overseas newspaper sites.

    On a separate note, though, I would pay for Cricinfo.

  24. What about Malcolm to tank in the next Newspoll? He’d have to be something like 2 on the netsat, wouldn’t he?

  25. shows

    your attempt at wit always starts with an F

    Glad you cleared up your obvious interest in australia acquiring nuclear power/weapons

    So is it shares,a consultancy or just a favour for uncle ziggy.

  27. Do we think Turnbull is deliberately stuffing everything up in order to lull Rudd into a false sense of security? Then, when the election is called, Turnbull will suddenly pounce?

  28. It will be interesting to see what Peter Van have to say on Lateline tonight:

    [Walking wounded – Peter Van Onselen –

    MALCOLM Turnbull’s leadership, already under sustained pressure from poor opinion polling as a result of his OzCar stumbles, is beginning to look terminal.

    He is now the victim of an internal Liberal Party smear campaign designed to blast him out. Those seeking his immediate departure are few in number, to be sure, but their view that he can’t win the next election is widely held inside the parliamentary party.

    And they are getting vicious. One disaffected Liberal MP tells The Australian: “Turnbull is like a prize poodle that is now just shitting on the front lawn and the rest of us are going to have to clean it up.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25892777-28737,00.html

  29. A pity the ABC site and the Age site are so full of fluff and tabloid rubbish. I would probably pay to access the AFR site. (If I owned the AFR I would relaunch it as a national quality daily to take on Murdoch.)

  30. [“Turnbull is like a prize poodle that is now just shitting on the front lawn and the rest of us are going to have to clean it up.”]

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
    GOLD! 😀

  31. Psephos, you have got to have been too absorbed in your job to have noticed that Malcolm is srly screwed up to be an effective Opposition Leader, let alone a PM. I recommend Political Sword for a useful analysis of Malcolm, with which I largely agree.

    He ain’t no politician.

  36. [Ohhh that line is going to run and run, like “mean and tricky” and “lying rodent.”]

    I think you might be right 😉

  38. Psephos, his cunning plan has worked so well. We’re blinded by his brilliance. It’s only occasionally we get a grip on how to deal with Malcolm’s brilliance.
    Stupid, stupid creature.
    Now, back to the cricket.

  40. [Glad you cleared up your obvious interest in australia acquiring nuclear power/weapons]
    I have no such interests, you made these up in your head, just as you made up your conspiracy theory that the N.T. intervention was so the government could find sites for mines and nuclear waste dumps.

    If this is the case, why is Rudd hiding this information? Is he in on the conspiracy too? Why don’t you call the police and tell them that this is what the N.T. intervention is really all for?
    [So is it shares,a consultancy or just a favour for uncle ziggy.]
    NOTHING, just like the evidence you have that you will be subject to a control order for mentioning Joint Standing Committee on Intelligence and Security on the internet.

    It is unfortunate that you can’t accept what people write on this forum in good faith, but instead constantly lie and misrepresent. Don’t you have better things to do with your time?

  42. play the issue not the man kirri,

    As regards NT, prior to the intervention and then concurrently, the nuke issue gained oxygen.
    In fact the NT was proposed as a waste dump.

    But of course this was only coincidence.

    as regards the rest of your misconstrued bile, i have as usual ignored it.

  44. So Kelvin Thomson MP elieves that there needs to be more vetting of both prospective migrants and temporary entrants.

    Vetting processes often depend heavily on the integrity of character references. So it seems a bit funny that this argument is coming from the man who had to quit the frontbench after it came out that he had written a character reference for one Tony Mokbel. See http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200703/s1867741.htm

  48. [As regards NT, prior to the intervention and then concurrently, the nuke issue gained oxygen.]
    This does not prove your conspiracy theory. Just because two things happened at similar times doesn’t mean one caused the other.
    [In fact the NT was proposed as a waste dump.]
    If the federal government wanted to build a waste dump in N.T., it could do so with a piece of federal legislation that the N.T. could do absolutely nothing about.

    Why then would they first set up a multi-billion dollar intervention into indigenous communities as a ruse when all they needed to do was pass a simple bill? Howard even had a majority in the Senate remember, so he could’ve pushed such a bill through even if Labor didn’t support it.
    [play the issue not the man kirri,]
    This is hilarious coming from someone who constantly lies and misrepresents the position of anyone who dares support nuclear power.

    I respect the fact you oppose nuclear power, AND LIKE ME OPPOSE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, this doesn’t mean you need to constantly lie whenever your position is criticised. You have to accept that sometimes people in good faith just have different views to you.

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