Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey (the accompanying spiel says telephone, but I believe this is a mistake) was conducted over the previous two weekends, and it shows no change worth mentioning on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57.5-42.5. Both major parties have gained on the primary vote, Labor up 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent and the Coalition up 2.5 per cent to 37.5 per cent. These gains are at the expense of the Greens, down from 11.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Other news:

• The numbers in Western Australia’s finely balanced Legislative Assembly have changed for the second time in as many months following North West MP Vince Catania’s shock defection from Labor to the Nationals. Labor now has 26 seats out of 59 after the double blow of the Catania defection and the Fremantle by-election, while the Nationals are up from four to five – the same as they had in the last parliament, before one-vote one-value was introduced (at which time they had one member in the upper house, compared with their current five). The Liberals remain on 24, with the Greens on one and three independents. The influence of the latter has accordingly diminished, as the governing parties are now only one short of a majority in their own right. Catania’s defection has inevitably been interpreted as a blow for Labor leader Eric Ripper and another triumph for all-conquering Nationals leader Brendon Grylls. Against the latter interpretation must be weighed the fact that the Nationals have chosen to associate themselves with a man responsible for one of the most grotesque acts of disloyalty in Australia’s recent political history.

• The big loser from the proposed Queensland federal electoral boundaries published yesterday is up-and-coming Liberal MP Peter Dutton, whose electorate of Dickson is set to exchange urban hinterland areas for a Labor-voting chunk of suburbia around Kallangur. Antony Green, who writes at length on the curse of Dickson, calculates that Dutton’s existing margin of 0.1 per cent has turned into a notional Labor margin of 1.3 per cent. Peter Lindsay’s Townsville-based seat of Herbert has also crossed the divide, from 0.2 per cent Liberal to 0.4 per cent Labor. The Courier-Mail reports that one early hopeful for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat slated to be called Wright (although AAP reports the name might suffer the same fate as it did the last time it was suggested) is Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, who attracted a fair bit of attention as the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and now hopes to get the nod from the Liberal National Party. Ban was more recently in the news when it emerged she had undergone an alarming sounding surgical procedure to increase the length of her legs.

• Former Peter Costello staffer Kelly O’Dwyer now looks all but certain to replace her old boss as Liberal candidate for Higgins after the withdrawal of her main rival, Tim Wilson. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that Wilson “is believed to have pulled out to maintain his focus on advocacy in free trade and climate change through the IPA”. Nominations close next week.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Philip Ruddock is “almost certain to be challenged for preselection for his safe seat of Berowra”. His likely challenger is former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy, with the local numbers believed to be evenly poised. Another source quoted by Coorey says McCoy might challenge Bill Heffernan’s Senate position if unsuccessful in Berowra. The Herald’s Mark Davis reports Heffernan’s position is in jeopardy in any case as he has earned the displeasure of the leadership of the “religious right”.

• Phillip Coorey further provides a list of possible candidates to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield in addition to the oft-mentioned Arthur Sinodinos and Tom Switzer: Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher and David Coleman.

• The West Australian reports that Tangney MP Dennis Jensen’s pleas to today’s Liberal Party state council meeting for his preselection defeat by Glenn Piggott to be overturned “will fall on deaf ears”, and that he is likely to run as an independent. UPDATE: The West Australian reports that the state council has in fact decided to hear submissions from each of the three candidates (which interestingly keeps Libby Lyons in the loop) over the coming weeks before reaching a final decision.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports that Mia Handshin, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt at the 2007 federal election, is a shoo-in to contest the seat again if she wishes to do so, having locked in the support of Senator and Right faction powerbroker Don Farrell. Handshin says she is “still very carefully considering”. The front-runner for Labor preselection in Boothby is Annabel Digance, a former nurse and member of the SA Water Board.

• Labor’s member for Ivanhoe in Victoria, Craig Langdon, has been defeated for preselection by Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and step-son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. Langdon apparently finished one vote behind his Labor Unity colleague after the votes of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee were added to those from local branches, the latter of which I’m told favoured Langdon 71 votes to 46.

• Following the blunt dismissal of a rape charge against him in Melbourne Magistrates Court, it remains unclear if Victorian Labor MP Theo Theophanous will seek to retain preselection for his upper house region of Northern Metropolitan. Not surprisingly, The Age reports that “senior party figures – including supporters of Mr Theophanous – hope he decides to quit politics and give Mr Brumby ‘clear air’ in the lead-up to next year’s election”. Nonetheless, Theophanous has re-nominated for his position. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the fight to replace Theophanous is between “forces aligned with federal Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, who want Treasury official Vasko Nastevski, and those aligned with federal parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, who want plumbers’ union official Nathan Murphy”.

• Wallace further reports that John Brumby is moving to protect Eastern Metropolitan MLC Shaun Leane from Electrical Trades Union assistant secretary Howard Worthing. Worthing’s challenge is said to be supported by ETU secretary Dean Mighell, who was expelled from the ALP after emerging as a political liability in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, along with a “small pocket of the Right”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that federal Liberal Hume MP Alby Schultz has “lost the battle to convince his party to field a candidate in the southeast NSW state seat of Monaro”. This follows an agreement to avoid three-cornered contests which the Liberals’ state executive signed off on last Friday, which also gives the Nationals free rein in the independent-held seats of Tamworth and Dubbo and Labor-held Bathurst. For their part, the Liberals will contest Water Minister Phil Costa’s marginal outer Sydney seat of Wollondilly and get the ninth position on the upper house ticket, which looks highly winnable on current form. The decision by the party’s state council to refer the matter to the executive was behind Schultz’s party-room altercation with Aston MP Chris Pearce.

UPDATE: CityBlue in comments notes that Jane Garrett has won the Labor preselection in Brunswick, as expected, and that Christine Campbell fended off a challenge from Joe Italiano in Pascoe Vale.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. [How long he be out of it before he’s too rusty to go back to it?]

    It would get pretty hard after about 5 years in something like ophthalmology. He should be getting out before this election. The novelty must have worn off by now, as well as the huge cut in income.

  2. [While issues may change over the years, basic attitudes to extending the Commonwealth (Fed Gov’s) power, and to state rights, haven’t.]
    Surely attitudes within the Liberal party have changed. There is absolutely no way a Liberal government in the 1970s or 1980s would’ve used the corporations power to conduct a federal takeover of I.R. laws, but Howard did it in 2005. What Abbott is suggesting is just a natural progression of what the Hawke and Howard governments started.

  4. Psephos @ 48 asked

    How long he [Laming] be out of it before he’s too rusty to go back to it?

    He has a history of remote area service & quiet (ie no “Look at moi, look at moi!” volunteer service in Africa, Afghanistan etc – check out his “Early Career” @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Laming So I’d assume continuing service in his specialist areas with university medical teams in severely disadvantaged developing nations – possibly with the Hollows Foundation, or with Mal Fraser’s teams etc. Certainly right wing and socially ‘C’ conservative with a tendency to think he knows what’s best for people, but with a deeply humanitarian streak – rather like Fraser in a way. I wouldn’t vote for him; but if, when he gets his pension, he wants to go back to his aid work, I’d donate.

    Blo#dy wasted on Opposition politics.

  7. [Weren’t the Libs once the “state’s rights” party?]

    In this as in most other matters the Libs have slavishly followed the US Republicans, who under Nixon and then Bush have become a party of centralised state power at the expense of all rivals – the states, the courts, the media, civil society, even the constitution. Now in opposition the Repubs are moving even further to the right and are becoming a party of conspiracy nuts (the birthers), anti-tax nuts (the teabaggers) and semi-fascists (Buchanan, Bachman etc). The Libs would not be well-advised to follow this path.

  8. ShowsOn @ 51 re

    Surely attitudes within the Liberal party have changed. There is absolutely no way a Liberal government in the 1970s or 1980s would’ve used the corporations power to conduct a federal takeover of I.R. laws, but Howard did it in 2005.

    (and Keating’s Labor government used the corporations powers of the Constitution to enact enterprise bargaining laws in 1993).

    BTW Have you forgotten the furore that erupted over Howard’s use of them? More from the conservative side of politics than the left? By 2005, if you recall, Howard had control of the Senate & over his Party, and if he wanted to slam something through the parliament, he did it.

    Around my way, conservatives (mainly Nationals, Hansonites & ever further to the right) – who’s had more urgent things to think about in 1993, like saving their properties from foreclosure over Swiss loans – went right off their wee brains over what a Labor government would be able to do once the precedent was set – citing what had been done under the “Foreign Powers” provision (like stopping the Franklin River project). If Howard could use it to screw workers, whom would Labor screw if it ever got back into power?

    Anyone why is lobbying for a referendum ought to examine the last two & how they were lost – including the very vocal right (esp religious right) – opposition to the last two: 1988 – referendum on protecting freedoms (the Religious right went totally ape over that one – the ‘jackboots invading the nunnery’ sort of thing!) As for The Republic Referendum – 1999: OK part of that was Turnbull’s fault, but the scare campaigns …!

    C’mon, most of us could write the health takeover write campaigns right now & probably miss the more (& most) rabid ones! I’d have a packet on N#zi-style ‘forced euthanasia’ of the old, mentally ill, physically & intellectually handicapped (that featured in 1988’s)!

  9. [Weren’t the Libs once a party?]

    something we will tell our grandkids about.

    The end of the nasty ole wiberals and their dastardly plan called worstchoices to enslave us all.
    But luckily the public woke from their deep apathy and kicked the bums out
    😉

  11. I have mentioned before that Alex Somlyay has closed his electorate office in Coolum (Fairfax) and opened a new one in Maroochydore (Fisher).

    Could it be that he will take over from Peter Slipper in Fisher, leaving Fairfax for Dutton? 😉

  12. Aristotle

    I love this comment Rudd made. He’s still going after the OO and News in general. It’s great to see. There will be a reply from the OO to such a full-frontal attack on them being Australia’s “paper-of-record”.

    [We should welcome a real debate about different ideas for the nation’s future, including from newspapers that declare themselves unashamed defenders of the ideological right.]

  13. Thanks, Ari. First Fairfax gets his new essay, then Rudd take a swipe at

    newspapers that declare themselves unashamed defenders of the ideological right.

    (no bets taken on which) both on the same day.

    Well, Mr Lewis, Mr Hartigan & your papers’ editors, Howard Huggers etc, did you factor into your efforts an Australian PM who wasn’t going to crawl to NewsLtd? One who might, in fact, after you did everything possible to destroy him, decide to teach you a salutary lesson on the perils of overly (overtly) and rather -> very dishonest beat-ups and partisan attacks on a legally elected government (& not by a small margin) still riding high in opinion polls? One who understands & uses new media, like blogs & twitter – did, in fact, state he was the last member of his family who still read ‘paper’ newspapers? Probably reads crikey.com?

    Obviously not.

    Tough. :O

  14. typical glass jaw stuff coming out from Rudd we knew he couldnt handle media scrutiny without trashing the media…what a clown!

  15. [newspapers that declare themselves unashamed defenders of the ideological right.]

    Glen

    Perhaps he meant that as a compliment?! 😉

  22. Here’s a blast from the past for you Glen.

    [On the subject of unmet need, the following might be observed:

    * Housing: the Government has made a commitment of $293.6 million over four years to start up the new Australian Remote Indigenous Accommodation (ARIA) Program. This measure may be considered against the ATSIC’s estimates of funding shortfalls in Indigenous housing ($2.3 billion in 1999 and $3.5 billion in 2002) and a housing backlog that would take more than 20 years to clear.[4] The need in the Northern Territory alone has been estimated by the National Issues in Indigenous Housing 2004/05 and Beyond: Position Paper Developed by the Northern Territory Government to be $806 million.]

    http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RB/BudgetReview/IndigenousAffairs.htm

  24. Glen

    You’re looking great on the ETS. After seven months, we still have to put up with the abysmal lack of a coherent policy. Are all of your members allowed to have their own opinion and vote accordingly? 😉

    When are you going to provide a decent Opposition?

  25. Why would Slipper not recontest his seat? It’s a well-paying sinecure that will re-elect him. He seems to be popular in the electorate – probably one of those who turns up at every fete & whatever. He might even get a promotion if the Liberal rout’s as big as they’re anticipating – improve the super. Remember those QLD factional groups?

    If Alexander Somlyay decides to retire (a bit like thinking Michin would), there will be a Lib faction fight for sure. Then there’s Fiona Simpson, State Shadow Minister for Transport and Main Roads; a very ambitious National woman (not fond of the Liberals) with a very big following.

    BTW: Thought you might er, find, er, interesting, er this from the LNP web page: “Child deaths to rise under Labor”.

  26. Diogenes, they’ll probably allow all the Federal Tories a conscience vote on the issue as there is no way that Turnbull has any control over the rabble on an ETS.

  27. [Oz
    Posted Saturday, July 25, 2009 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
    #66

    Good to see the faithful lapping it all up.]

    Oz, I have voted Democrats, Liberal and, god forgive me, Greens in the past as well as Labour, but I do see Rudd as light years ahead of the Libs and the Greens. Although, thank goodness, I have never voted Country/National. Oz, can you honestly claim to have voted for ALL of those parties or are you a party faithful?

    Tom

    Tom

    Tom.

  32. OzPol

    My comment was tongue in cheek. 😉 But it does surprise me that an elected member of parliament chooses to have his electorate office in another electorate.

    It is academic really, because Fisher and Fairfax will become Labor seats due to the urbanisation of the Sunny Coast.

  33. [what do you make of Tony Abbott’s proposal for a constitutional amendment to increase the power of the commonwealth government?]

    The nationhood power provides adequate scope for anything that can genuinely be seen as an issue which could not otherwise be carried out for the benefit of the nation.

  34. [It is academic really, because Fisher and Fairfax will become Labor seats due to the urbanisation of the Sunny Coast.]

    This is the same casual reasoning that led your breezy assertions of Labor victories in Noosa and Caloundra at the last state election. The former now has a 20% buffer for the Libs, so it remains the be seen when the supposedly Labor tilting demographics are going to kick in.

  35. [Fisher and Fairfax will become Labor seats due to the urbanisation of the Sunny Coast.]

    That doesn’t seem to have happened to McPherson and Moncrieff, although Labor has made inroads on the Gold Coast at state level. Why would the Sunshine Coast (where Labor now holds no state seats, IIRR) be different?

  37. Entered th 21st century today and got my first mobile device.

    First two dates entered in the calendar:

    Mrs Trubbell’s biryhday – 4 November.
    (But I treat her like every day is her birthday) 🙂

    National Andrew Bolt is a Dickhead Day – 3rd June.
    (But actually every day…. ) 🙂

  38. Abbott suffers from that common affliction called, “Everything would be better if I was in charge”. This is a primarily delusionary illness where individuals can claim that a brand new bureaucracy remote from the user will provide a more efficient and customer friendly service. Those suffering honestly believe that Australians have an abiding love and trust of remote public servants being able to benignly administer various essentials like health and education. History shows this to be especially true of residents of Queensland and WA.

    The cure for this affliction is called Referendum and has been known to work in most cases.

  40. [8-9% swings at the last Federal Election?]

    There were those sort of swings EVERYWHERE at the last state election, especially in Queensland. There’s no evidence that it was anything particularly to do with the demographics of the Sunshine Coast, they simply reflected the change in the national mood.

  42. OK, Oz, let’s hear you say a good word for your leader, Big Chief Turning Bull. None of the other Libs here can bring themselves to do so. Glen is positively contemptuous of him.

  43. [(and Keating’s Labor government used the corporations powers of the Constitution to enact enterprise bargaining laws in 1993).]
    Did he? I thought he used the arbitration and conciliation power in order to create Enterprise Bargaining Agreements.

    Howard’s great I.R. innovation was using the corporations power to say that the federal government could make I.R. laws that are applicable to any corporation. The Howard appointee Ian Calinan was the only justice that dissented from that view.

  45. [they’ll probably allow all the Federal Tories a conscience vote on the issue]

    Does that mean Minchin and Ruddock don’t get a vote? 😉

    vera

    I actually want it passed, sad and sorry as it is.

  46. The demographics are certainly changing in both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts -the Census data shows that in spades – although with parts of the Gold Coast there’s this big additional lump of over 50’s that won’t wash out of the area for 20 years.

    QLD is also the hardest place to pull demographic trends out in terms of vote change because of two weird events here. Firstly, One Nation in 1998 made everything go haywire because of the farce that was One Nation HTV cars. Secondly, Latham in 2004 was pretty much despised by Qlders.

    If you look at the 1996, 2001 and 2007 results you see a a pretty clear, linear movement to the ALP in the two Coasts by pretty much the same amount – but it could also be explained as simple longevity taking it’s toll on the Howard government. I personally reckon it’s about 3 part demographics to 1 part longevity in those areas, but only time will tell. If there’s a further swing to Labor at the coming election in those areas, the argument for demographics driving vote change will be a lot stronger than the “one of many possible explanations” that it is now.

  47. David

    The average swing to Labor at the last Federal election was 5.44% TPP. Fairfax and Fisher were among the largest swings.

    I made an error at the last Qld state election. Expecting state results to approximate federal results. Dumb of me. 🙂

  48. Not surprising that Minchin was setting barbs in the ‘bull on Q&A the other night. He and his leader are such different characters. Turnbull the florid bludgeon swinger and Minchin the shadowy stiletto…

  49. Adam that’s because he’s a loser and Liberals wants strong leaders who look like winning…Turnbull meants neither of these categories…

  50. [OK, Oz, let’s hear you say a good word for your leader, Big Chief Turning Bull. None of the other Libs here can bring themselves to do so. Glen is positively contemptuous of him.]

    I’ve never voted Liberal in my life…

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