The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on carbon emission targets (evenly divided between 80 per cent by 2050 and 60 per cent), the state of the economy in face of the global slowdown (worst believed to be over), whether Australian companies “should accept the laws and justice systems of those countries even if they are very different from our own” (yes), the government’s handling of the Stern Hu issue (somewhat favourable), whether the Prime Minister’s experience with China will help govenrment in dealing with the issue (no), and the ban on climbing Uluru (opposed). Elsewhere:
• Put a mark around Friday in your diaries as the day the Australian Electoral Commission is due to publish proposed boundaries for the federal redistribution in Queensland, which is gaining a thirtieth seat.
• Dennis Jensen, the Liberal member for Tangney, has been defeated in the local preselection vote by Glenn Piggott, from a field that also included Alcoa government relations manager Libby Lyons. The West Australian reports that Piggott won on the first round with the support of 20 branch delegates against 10 for Jensen and eight for “spoiler candidate” Libby Lyons (who unlike Piggott lives not locally but in the western suburbs, having earlier tried her hand at the state preselection for Nedlands). There is still the possibility that the result will be overturned by the party’s State Council on Saturday, as it was before the 2007 election when Jensen was initially defeated by Matt Brown. However, The West Australian report baldly states that Jensen “appears certain to lose his seat”. The only facts that gan be gleaned about Piggott from this remove is that he is a 52-year-old finance manager with Toyota.
• Another weekend preselection challenge proved to be a non-event when AMWU official and Geelong councillor Andy Richards withdrew from his tilt against Maria Vamvakinou in the safe Labor Melbourne seat of Calwell. Richards has attracted his fair share of critics: AMWU colleague Ian Jones launched a colourful spray quoted at length in The Australian, describing him as “dead wood” and “unsuitable for public office”, while federal MP Darren Cheeseman (whose electorate of Corangamite partly coincides with his council turf) made no effort to spare Richards’ feelings in a letter to Calwell preselectors. Beyond that, one can surmise that Richards’ withdrawal was influenced by peace deals between rival sub-factions of the Right, one of which was threatening to back Richards in defiance of a “stability pact” protecting the candidates of Left powerbroker Senator Kim Carr, among them Vamvakinou. Andrew Landeryou at vexNews reported last week that two state preselection challenges had been shelved under similar circumstances: Darebin councillor Tim Laurence dropped his bid to topple incumbent Steve Herbert in Eltham, and Fiona Richardson was spared a seemingly derisory challenge in Northcote from Kathleen Matthews-Ward, a Moreland councillor reportedly associated with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.
• Andrew Landeryou also reports that the state Liberal member for Sandringham, Murray Thompson, faces a preselection challenge from Margaret Fitzherbert. They are respectively said to be associated with the Peter Costello and Ted Baillieu factions.
• The Maribyrnong Leader reports youth worker Les Twentyman, who contested last year’s contentious Kororoit by-election, denies reports he will run against Labor member Marsha Thomson in Footscray, but says he will “look at” the possibility of running in an unspecified electorate if his health improves (he is “still recovering from surgery complications which threatened his life”).
• In case you missed it, George Megalogenis of The Australian provided the authoritative word last week on what an increased Labor majority at the next election might look like. Money quote:
Of the top 50 seats for tradesmen, 23 are marginal: 14 Liberal and nine Labor. A number of blue-collar Liberal seats proved hard to shift at the 2007 election, including Bowman and Herbert in Queensland, McEwen and La Trobe in Victoria and Macarthur and Paterson in NSW. All but Paterson had been solid Labor seats in the 1980s, swung to the Coalition in the 1990s because of the fallout from the last recession, and remained rusted on to the Howard government throughout the nation’s longest boom.
• I’ve added a thorough update to my ongoing post on Tasmania’s Pembroke upper house by-election.
• Another entry to the to-do list: a South Australian government proposal to reform the upper house through an end to staggered eight-year terms and a populist cut in numbers to below the point of effectiveness. This could be put to the voters at a referendum coinciding with the state election next March. However, legislation initiating the referendum will first have to pass the upper house itself.
[through an end to staggered eight-year terms and a populist cut in numbers to below the point of effectiveness.]
What is the point of effectiveness?
Diogenes,
[Is it harder than driving a bus?]
See my last comment on the previous thread. It’s not only harder but than are better at it than bus drivers going by this.
[SYDNEY’S buses have been involved in 2073 crashes in 18 months and more than half have been the fault of State Transit Authority drivers.
Figures given exclusively to The Daily Telegraph revealed an alarming rate of almost four crashes a day from January 2008 until now.
With only 1900 buses in the STA fleet, bus drivers have been blamed for hitting 1107 vehicles.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/busted-for-bad-driving/story-e6freuzi-1225752088321
than; “they”!
Looks like the Stern Hu crud from the Rabble was a load of tosh. 😉
scorpio
Fair enough.
In memory of Claus Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg and all those who gave their lives trying to kill Hitler in the July 20 bomb plot, 65 years ago today. “Und ihr habt doch gesiegt.”
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=155424
Pity they completely ballsed it up Psephos.
Yes, but it didn’t really matter. They knew it would fail – they did it to redeem the honour of Germany and the German army, and in that, to some extent, they succeeded.
Yes… but they should have taken over the telecommunications
William, please, Les Twentyman is not a qualified social worker. He is a youth worker and I am not aware of any qualification Mr. Twentyman has achieved.
Finally someone else brings up the possibility of Rann`s “reform” being blocked in that which he seeks to “reform”.
Hmm, got sniped by the new thread.
Heysen at 945 (in the last one):
[ *WA: LIB/NAT minority gov with upper house majority.
Predictions for the situation after one election:
*WA: LIB gov (will they continue the coalition with the NAT’s if they have a majority by themselves?). BOP: Continued Gerymander in the upper house. ]
There’s only ever been one very narrow (29 seats out of 57) Liberal majority in WA history, after the 1996 election (Richard Court’s second term) – they formed a coalition govt as usual. Of course, that was when the lower house was malapportioned, so the Nationals got more seats. Nowadays there’s more metro seats available to the ALP or Libs, so there’s a better chance of the Liberals getting a majority. It could change the way both parties deal with each other.
An interesting thought… if the Liberals win 27-29 seats in 2013, they’d have the option of negotiating with Constable, Woollard and Carles, and ignoring the Nats. (I’m assuming Bowler won’t be member for Kalgoorlie by then, one way or another.) The way this govt has an obsession with cutting costs everywhere (except Laura Norder, who are getting new dogs and helicopters), I can see them cutting the Nats adrift if they start playing hardball with ‘Royalties For Regions’ again. If the Nats know what’s good for them they’ll try to win seats like Pilbara and North West off Labor up north, seeing as they’ve reached their ceiling in the wheatbelt. (They’re not getting Roe back while Graham Jacobs is there, but they may someday.)
Also, Alfred Cove will be interesting… it’ll remain marginal as long as Janet Woollard is the member, but if she retires, that’s 25% of the vote going missing from conservative types who won’t vote for just any Liberal. (Same goes for 2017 if she gets beaten in 2013.) After Woollard, I can see that being a Lib/Grn marginal, and the only realistic chance the Greens have of taking a seat off the Libs. Then again, the Greens may or may not want to play the green tory card (think Liberals For Forests). Whatever happens, it’ll remain interesting to watch for a while.
That’s all ancient history. What matters now is the example of their sacrifice.
The main faults with that plan was that von Stauffenburg was that he did not put the second block of explosives in the briefcase (which would have killed Hittler) and that the troop mobilisation stage was not started sooner.
Funny about that… I went up with the Small Person tonight to get a Blu-Ray and I considered Valkyrie which we (grownups) had seen and I thought it might be OK for the Small Person. I didn’t hire it, not realising that today is der tag plus 65 years. Must hire it tomorrow, when it may still be July 20 in Germany!
It seems the actual assassination part of the plot didn’t work because instead of two they were only able to (or had time to) smuggle one Plastique brick into the bunker. Maddening!
With all the secret weapons they Germans were designing and building (one of which eventually led to men landing on the moon) it seems they couldn’t get a decent timer fuse together and had to use captured British SOE devices which were highly dependent upon ambient temperature for the exact duration of the delay and were flaky in any case, at the best of times. The one in the plane didn’t work because it was put into the cargo hold which was too cold and hence delayed the explosion until Hitler had landed at the other end of his journey. The one at the Wolf’s Lair was too quick. It was all a cock-up, but a fascinating cock-up.
Valkyrie is an excellent movie despite (or perhaps – and I say this in amazement because I’m no Tom Cruise fan – because of) Tom Cruise. The firing squad scenes were filmed in the actual courtyard where they originally happened. Spooky.
One is led to think that perhaps Hitler’s Germany was a tragedy that was intended to be played out to the bitter end, with no shortcuts.
Did anyone notice that a widely reported critic of St Kev’s wonderful broadbeany thingo. Who appeared before the Senate Committee today. Runs a business providing “last mile solutions” for the inter-tubes?
I wonder why he would think fibre to the premises was a dud idea?
Yes, Tom, I am very familiar with every minute of that day’s events. I am making a wider political point. We don’t commemorate Anzac Day by arguing about whether they landed on the right beach or not.
I was also pleasantly surprised by the movie. The details were very authentic, the tension was effective even though the ending was known in advance, and TC was better than I expected.
[There’s only ever been one very narrow (29 seats out of 57) Liberal majority in WA history, after the 1996 election (Richard Court’s second term) – they formed a coalition govt as usual. Of course, that was when the lower house was malapportioned, so the Nationals got more seats. Nowadays there’s more metro seats available to the ALP or Libs, so there’s a better chance of the Liberals getting a majority. It could change the way both parties deal with each other.]
Oh and Swan Hills may return to the ALP if this article is any indication.
[It was the promise that changed governments. But it is now set to be broken.
The removal of a controversial restriction in the Swan Valley suburb of Ellenbrook is no closer to happening, despite political pressure and expressions of confidence by Government MPs.
Established in 2002, as part of the development of the suburb’s main shopping centre, named “The Shops”, the restrictive covenant bans about 60 types of retail premises from opening up in Ellenbrook.
It has been enforced by The Shops’ owner, the Insurance Commission of Western Australia. While parts of the covenant expire in the next few years, it will remain in some form until 2018.
Owners of commercial properties in Ellenbrook have been fighting to get rid of the covenant for some years, and about a year ago enlisted the help of City of Swan councillor Frank Alban.
Mr Alban won Liberal preselection for the state seat of Swan Hills, and narrowly won the seat in an upset result on the back of a massive swing in Ellenbrook, as residents angry with having to travel to Morley or Midland to buy basic items expressed their annoyance at the ballot box.
While most media attention on the area has focused on the promise by both sides of politics to build a railway line to the suburb, both Mr Alban and Labor acknowledge the victory was because the Liberals promised to overturn the covenant.
Had Labor retained the seat, it would have held power. In desperation, with polling showing it that it was losing its grip on Swan Hills, it asked ICWA if there was any way the covenant could be removed, and was told there was not. ]
It should be noted that while the Abrbor Rd Booth was Labor’s best, the Libs won the Salvation Army Booth quite convincingly.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-foundation-promise-in-tatters-20090717-do0b.html?page=-1
Diogenes, my brother is a train driver, used to be in Queensland, now here in Victoria working for private company driving freight between Vic., N.S.W. and port and distribution centres. Has required learning new locomotives and how they work, signalling system, rail yards and how to organise them for next day disposition across the 2 states work requirements. He can be called in with an hour’s notice and does a number of interstate trips every roster. He’s not doing too badly with shift allowances and so on, but we pay our consultant psychiatrist at least a third as much again as he gets for 3 sessions, base pay.
A mate of mine, paediatrician, earns more than I do, full time, doing 2 days work a week on a casual basis.
Re, Ruawake @ 16:
[Today a Senate committee has heard from two experts who say many householders do not want such speeds and are unlikely to be prepared to pay for them.
Communications expert Dr Rowan Gilmore has told the committee it is a risky investment to try to deliver such speeds to houses.
“The demand for 100-megabit services to most homes is not necessary and would be throttled down in most instances anyway,” he said.
“Certainly there would be business and premises that would benefit from 100-megabits per second connectivity.
“Without having seen market data, my experience would indicate that that is not necessary in the great bulk of circumstances.”]
Gee Willickers! Talk about tunnel vision! His argument is that because in his opinion high-speed broadband “is not necessary in the great bulk of circumstances” for today’s internet user, that seemingly for all time it is not necessary. Whatever happened to “If you build it they will come”?
Cross this guy off your Techo Guru list. If he had his way we’d still be riding horses to work and using gas lamps for street lighting.
Frank at 19: The Ellenbrook line would be an issue too. If the Liberals show their usual enthusiasm for building train lines and can the thing, and folk up there remember it in a few years time, that’s Morley and Swan Hills the Libs can kiss goodbye. (Morley as it’s very marginal, got the D’Orazio effect last time, and I’m guessing contains Ballajura / Noranda which would have stations on that line.)
What’s the member for West Swan doing with herself? (As that’s the other seat in the region.) She was one of Carpenter’s dream team, but I’ve heard not a peep from her lately. Google News is clueless.
Rua – I watched the broadbeany thingo on Apac from 3pm til close. One young bloke, said he was an equity financial adviser, said he wouldn’t recommend it to his clients.
2 Lib Senators continually pushed him to say it would be too expensive for most households and was unnecessary because not too many people wanted fast internet. Didn’t think investors would be interested. He seemed like a Lib mouthpiece.
Deutsche (?) Bank was more non-committal about cost. Didn’t think it would be too expensive for households in comparison with cost now.
Line Lib Senators are taking is that it is completely unnecessary and won’t happen –
they think Telstra will retain all its clients and rightly so. Yakkety, yak, yak, yak. What else would you expect from them. (Mary Jo Fisher (!) and Sandy whatsisname)
And there I was screaming at the TV that I darn well wanted it faster than the ridiculous setup here.
209 in 90 overs, easy. Just a half one dayer really.
go clarkey, go.
If they try to get the runs they will get out. They should play dead for the draw. That would be achievement enough.
scorpio @ 1045
Yes. It used to take years and a number of exams to qualify as a train driver and even then you started at a low grade and were restricted to shunting etc for a good while before you graduated up to passenger or goods trains.
So the anti-union, anti-working class’s being able to earn salaries that you think ought to be confined to those with para/professional training …
has, now you’ve lost the “Train drivers get more than doctors in public hospital” argument, had a Red herring fallacy dragged in as you switched to heart-strings Waaa, waaa, It’s not fair to those noble people who heal/ nurse the sick that some train drivers are so well paid emotional appeal stuff, and we’re into just about the gamut of emotional fallacies:
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/emotiona.html
Now you’re into “status of jobs” and “ethics of renumeration” arguments; originally appearing in Plato’s Republic gathering millennia (& libraries) of arguments for & against … I wonder how long before you get to the “Gold, Silver, Bronze” and slavery arguments.
Google has such looong lists of leads to these I won’t even have to dig out the books & stats!
[Frank at 19: The Ellenbrook line would be an issue too. If the Liberals show their usual enthusiasm for building train lines and can the thing, and folk up there remember it in a few years time, that’s Morley and Swan Hills the Libs can kiss goodbye. (Morley as it’s very marginal, got the D’Orazio effect last time, and I’m guessing contains Ballajura / Noranda which would have stations on that line.)
What’s the member for West Swan doing with herself? (As that’s the other seat in the region.) She was one of Carpenter’s dream team, but I’ve heard not a peep from her lately. Google News is clueless.]
With my assistance (in providing Liberal Electoral Material which I hoarded) she is on the front foot with both the Rail Line and the Convenant.
The Rail Line would’ve gone up Lord St from a Spur near Success Hill Station.
They should have got Neil Brown in. He could have told them how he refused extra bandwidth to Telecom in 1982, because “these mobile phone thingies will never catch on.” That’s dynamic Liberal thinking for you.
William, not happy, Les Twentyman is NOT, NOT, NOT a qualified social worker. PLEASE NOTE.
My point exactly:
[THE Chaser team says a stunt in which Julian Morrow scaled the walls of a Canberra church attended by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was carried out in a “responsible” way.
Criticism of the program has surfaced over the stunt which took place just before Mr Rudd was expected to comment on Australian casualties in the Jakarta bombings.
The stunt coincided with a draft management plan which calls for a ban on people climbing Uluru, which is sacred to local Aboriginal people.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-chaser-church-stunt-was-responsible-says-julian-morrow/story-e6freuy9-1225752293768
If Rudd wants to pontificate that climbing the sacred (to indigenous people) Uluru is fine by him, then he should keep his trap shut on the tastefulness or otherwise of The Chaser Boys’ climbing his pet prop church.
I can’t see any difference in substance between the two points of view at all.
Let’s see if St. Kevin falls for the trap.
(See? I’m not entirely rusted on).
[Gee Willickers! Talk about tunnel vision! His argument is that because in his opinion high-speed broadband “is not necessary in the great bulk of circumstances” for today’s internet user, that seemingly for all time it is not necessary. Whatever happened to “If you build it they will come”?]
BB – that is what they all sounded like. The experts that is – apparently they think that the bulk of us are not good enough to have faster speeds. Obviously we poor little vegemites can’t cope with reading all that material at speed. And that is exactly what one of the Senators (I think Minchin) said.
The Dept. blokes were much better. Hurry up Tassie and make sure it’s a big success.
[If they try to get the runs they will get out. They should play dead for the draw. That would be achievement enough.]
If they play for a dead draw they will get out because it would allow England to set completely attacking fields. If England starts setting fields primarily to save runs, that makes it harder for England to take wickets.
My spouse – the original Luddite, teh-internet-is-a-wank-what-a-waste-of-time person – was the one in our household who demanded we get broadband.
Still can’t work out how to turn on the mobile phone, but.
The point being: just because someone NOW thinks that the internet is fast enough for their needs and/or isn’t necessary, doesn’t mean that they’ll think that way in a few years’ time.
Frank… just reading a bit more about that stuff. I was aware there’s not much going on in Ellenbrook (not even a pub), but when you get people saying stuff like this, it just gets silly.
[ In a letter obtained by WAtoday.com.au, the competition watchdog said it did not believe the covenant was uncompetitive, saying Ellenbrook residents could drive the 20km to Morley or Midland to shop at businesses that were not allowed to set up near their homes. ]
Whaat? Sweet jesus, and they called Carpenter arrogant.
Zoomster – my OH was same as your little Luddite – now it’s a case of ‘why doesn’t this darn thing download photos, etc. faster – can’t we do something’.
And he won’t mind paying a bit extra for it either. It was nauseating listening to the holier than thou’s on that Committee saying we didn’t really need it.
A submission as to why the broadband network can’t follow water infrastructure included this gem from the Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA).
[In addition, the accuracy of the information regarding the location of some underground infrastructure (particularly some of the older infrastructure) may be problematic.]
https://senate.aph.gov.au/submissions/comittees/viewdocument.aspx?id=19c1cdd9-223f-442a-a8a1-a6c081e6886a
Has anyone been following the Theophanous case?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25809746-29277,00.html
Even if he is found not guilty, it seems that it will end his political career anyway.
Psephos @ 6 posted
.
Indeed. But I’ve always been much more impressed by the earlier White Rose (Weiß Rose)protesters
The White Rose group, especially Hans and Sophie Scholl, inspired many of the 1950s-70s university protesters, on both sides of the Iron Curtain & other countries where freedom were suppressed, and anti-war movements – and still do.
International university communities still commemorate White Rose Day (22 February). I still wear a white flower on 22/2 to remember all that is good, decent and courageous in youth, and the independent, critical spirit all educational institutions, their teachers and students should aspire to inspire.
Es lebe die Freiheit!
No joy from the Australasian Railway Association in being able to use their infrastructure either. Their message is send money not more infrastructure.
[Railways use communications as an essential part of providing safe and efficient rail
services, both passenger and freight, across the Australian rail network.
To ensure public safety, railways rely on radio communications. Therefore,
railway communications systems must not be compromised.
The rail industry is concerned about the consequences legislation in terms of safety,
cost and impact on railways operations.
The Telecommunications Legislation must not compromise rail safety or
introduce additional costs.
Railways must be allowed to recoup any costs on a full cost commercial recovery
basis.
The rail industry has not been consulted on the Bill. Therefore, neither government
nor the rail industry has information about the consequences.
Further consultation with the rail industry must occur prior to the legislation
being passed to ensure public safety is not degraded and to protect against
unacceptable costs.]
https://senate.aph.gov.au/submissions/comittees/viewdocument.aspx?id=0f4f4431-aa66-4419-869e-c58c5b0a51b8
OzPol
The White Rose group is one of my personal favourites in history, along with the anti-Mafia judges Falcone (my gravatar) and Borsellino.
Have you seen the movie, “Sophie Scholl”? There’s also a book just out “Sophie Scholl: The Woman Who Defied Hitler”.
My favourite album “In the Aeroplane over the Sea” by Neutral Milk Hotel has a song about the White Rose group call Amsterdam, 1945;
[And here’s where your mother sleeps
And here is the room where your brothers were born
Indentions in the sheets
Where their bodies once moved but don’t move anymore
And it’s so sad to see the world agree
That they’d rather see their faces fill with flies
All when I’d want to keep white roses in their eyes ]
I’m not sure why we should be *more* impressed by the White Rose group than by the 20 July plotters. Both took courageous stands which they knew would probably cost them their lives. Although what the White Rose students did took great courage, it was entirely symbolic, and not intrinsically difficult. The July 20 people were trying something more ambitious: to assassinate a head of state and seize power from a ruthless regime. It may be argued that their motives were less “pure”, since many of them only turned against Hitler when the war turned against Germany. But then it’s easy for students to be “pure of motive” since they are so far from the centre of power.
In the end, they lost their lives doing the right thing for the right reasons. As did the Ruddster’s favourite Dietrich Bornhoffer, who had a book released about him last month by Sabine Dramm, “Dietrich Bonhoeffer and the Resistance”.
Perhaps the PB History Department should send Rudd a copy.
[and TC was better than I expected.]
That wouldn’t be hard surely!
[It may be argued that their motives were less “pure”, since many of them only turned against Hitler when the war turned against Germany. ]
It is a big argument.
Good heavens! Blowers has discovered that Heathrow is a busy airport!
I think the last TC movie I saw was Risky Business. He was quite fetching in that.
The Army were the prime reason for Hitler staying in power though Adam…
Had they revolted against the Nazis early on after Hindenburg’s death, Hitler would have been finished…but they threw in their lot with the Nazis providing the SA would be crushed…they sold out Germany in the 1930s…it was the least they could do on July 20 1944…
[He was quite fetching in that.]
There are some phrases that should never be used in conjunction with Tom Cruise…
Yes, Glen, that’s true. To be fair, though, they got very little help from outside. Halder was prepared to stage a coup in 1938 if Hitler had gone to war over Czechoslovakia, but was thwarted by Chamberlain’s sellout at Munich. Once Halder was gone the plans for a coup had to be a conspiracy rather than a move by the army as a whole.
*turns off cricket*
The cricket is almost as much fun as Liberals winning elections.