An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan‘s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
“I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.”
If Turnbull had a record of sticking to something for the long haul, he might reinvent himself as Bruce, Menzies and Howard did; but he hasn’t.
From a wealthy background, Bruce, who served in WW I, was 46 when he lost the PMship; Bob Menzies, whose family had produced several Victorian MHRs (including his father) and an MP, and was 47 when he lost the PMship. His roles during WW II (well canvassed in a recent ABC film) and his respect for Curtin (who consulted him) undoubtedly prepared him to form and lead the Liberal Party. Turnbull will be 55 in October. Wealthy, pugnacious, achieving too much success and fame too fast, he has, so far, lacked the steadying influences of Bruce’s war service and Menzies’ was roles. His performance throughout Utegate, inc shirtfronting Charlton at the Ball and over-riding party-room qualms, is all too typical.
Australians have a much discussed reputation for dismissing governments rather than electing Oppositions. Assuming the ALP holds government for at least three terms (Fraser served 3; since 1932, only Whitlam’s government served less – 2 terms), Turnbull, even if he does manage to reinvent himself, will be c63 before he gets a real chance – and then only if the government is badly on the nose.
Of the government’s cabinet and ministry, only Swan (no PMerial ambitions) seemed vulnerable, yet his only slip was one 2min phonecall. Grech’s role in targeting him – especially by sending the faxes to his home, then leaking their existence – will effectively shield & steady him. After all, Grech’s sting was just that; a sting that went wrong, a very unfair “go” of the sort Aussies hate! The rising ALP stars (Gillard, Combet, Shorten, Roxon etc) have reputations for brilliance, level-headed tenacity, thoroughness – and winning – so are unlikely to make the sort of mistakes that cost government.
The last two governments have lasted 13 years (H-K) and almost 12 (JH) In 12 years time, a whole new generation will be waiting in the wings. If Malcolm runs true to form, he won’t contest the next election, tho he might already have resigned his seat before it.
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40%,
Hickey on 20%,
And Dutton and Turnbull haven’t even got any votes. “Could” indicate that away from the metropolitan electorates that Turnbull doesn’t rate and probably never has rated with voters from both major parties. IMO.
For the national figures, Costello rating at 43% and Turnbull at a wopping 24%. This poll is probably, for the first time, fairly indicative of the public opinion. IMO
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Excellent satirical piece by Ad Astra here. Covers everything, very funny.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2009/06/29/Done28099t-blame-me.aspx
In this morning’s ‘Tiser, A Downer has written his weekly column, headlined “WIll the real PM please stand up”. In this column he write
Anyone who cares to read the conclusions of the commissioner can do so. There’s a whole sectioncalled “The knowledge of the Commonwealth”.
Page after detailed pagerepudiated every claim of lying Mr Rudd had levelled against the then prime minister, ministrs (including me) and the officers of the Department of Foreign Affairs.
Yet Mr Rudd had for months accused us of lying to Parliament perjuring ourselves before a royal commission and “not reading cables” (something I did assiduously as every officer in the department knew).
After the royal commission report was tabled in the Parliament, I assumed Mr Rudd would admit he had been wrong – or resign- for making totally false yet very serious allegations against ministers…..”
I can’t find any internet link to this article – does any PB have one?
It’s interesting to juxtaposition these reactions with Possum’s latest article in Crikey.
Downer wants to revist AWB …ha, what a dope. $300m bribes to a murderous dictator and he wants to remind people how incompetent he and the Howard govt were and how dirty they all seemed?
Go for it Dolly, let us bring it all back and, maybe another Royal Commission where PS don’t have to be worried about what they say.
BH, have actually atm tipped my blokes to come through … not quite sure why, but I’m going on my gut instincts as I got 8 last week so am flying atm ….. the 16 in my HS tipping comp, I was the only one getting 8 last week, heaps of 6’s, one 5 and 3 1’s. The 1’s must have been Libs 😀
Tony Abbott putting on a brave face;
“When you’ve had a tough week you get bad polls. Labor threw everything bar the kitchen sink at us last week, but Malcolm Turnbull has not flinched and the party has not flinched.”
I’m sure he’d rather have been dining on crushed glass with a sprig of razor blade than having to say this.
So where’s Glen and GP? Missing in action?
Let’s all rub it in to Glen, that at the height of Utegate, he said Rudd’s Preferred PM would drop 20 percentage points. But instead, Turnbull’s dissatisfaction has gone up 20 points. Karma 😀
Julian @ 200, reason Malcolm didn’t flinch is because no one is standing behind him to push him off the edge of the plank – YET 😀
bob1234, mate, glen and gp are off to the doc getting their ulcers attended to 😉
It is dawning, on the minds of Libs in marginal electorates, that Malcolm can only lead them to a train wreck election defeat.
They are looking for a leader who can deliver the “least bad” election result.
People Skills is busy on the phone I hear. 😉
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25707194-29277,00.html
GG [An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html%5D
Thanks GG, that is absolutely CLASSIC! Especially love the interjecting poodle and the Hockey heavyweight rottweiler!
GG 193 KTHX for the link. Best laugh around here since SBC on Rove (which was the best since Albo’s Mark Latham effort on QT). Uz gud kat!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
HAH, everyone knows Abbott hates the fact he’s been demoted. What utter comedy gold.
scorpio @ 195
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40% …
I filled in the poll, which didn’t have a “none of the above”, so I figured Cossie was the most mischievous choice! My electorate has very few Oz buyers (or on-line readers) and it likes only Cossie and Sloppy Joe.
Abbott’s 9-1 for Lib leader at the next federal election at Sportingbet, in from 34-1 on 1 April 2008 when I placed $20 on him; and 11-1 at Centrebet, in from 26-1 on Feb 11 2009 when I placed $60 on him (he wasn’t even listed in the field back in Feb, the bet was placed on “any other candidate”).
The real trumpet blowing will begin soon enough (that’s if Abbott gets the job and holds it until the next poll, niether of which are certain).
C’mon Monk Man, you know I need my bathroom renovated!
Excluding some of Malcolm Turnbull’s less attractive qualities, his terminal arrogance, his bullying, his condescension which tells us how lucky Oz is to have a man like him. His ability to concoct a story and to repeat it word-for-word to his hapless audience, his total self-belief that he was pre-ordained by God for any job he takes on. His ability to lie. Once, he was being interviewed by the ABC re a comment made by the then leader of the Libs. Someone handed him the wrong story and he was telling everyone belabouring the rightness of the story. Suddenly he was handed the real story. He did not miss a beat. He switched to the opposite tack without missing a breath.
However, what is it which distinguishes Malcolm Turnbull from other Liberal leaders? Take away his character traits and he becomes just another mirror image of all the other Liberal leaders.
The Libs are dying on their feet. Cut from the same cloth the Peter Costellos, Alexander Downers, John Howards, Malcolm Turnbulls of the Liberal Party assure the voters ‘more of the same’. They have become irrelevant. Just like the Liberal Party of Victoria. How could anyone vote for a faction riven party led by the amiable but not too bright Ted Baillieu?
It might be fair to suggest the conservative parties are lost in a time warp and the public doesn’t seem to too fussed about finding them.
I’ve whacked Essential Report up:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/essential-report-ozcar-fallout-edition/
It’s up for Labor as well.
Maybe a solution for the Liberals would be to split into two? One small l liberal party that would be attractive to many Labor voters, and one Conservative party that would be supported by rusted on Liberals.
No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
Downer, Costello, Howard and Turnbull cut from the same cloth? Do you have even the faintest knowledge of their family backgrounds? You really should inform yourself before saying such silly things.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…
Particularly its acronym. Back to the future!
The Liberal Democrats and the Conservative party of Australia.
At least the Rabble had one week where leadership speculation was off the agenda. 🙂
174
So he enjoys giving his permission to various projects like the pulp mill, uranium mines, and the various nutty water schemes of the Victorian state government and having too publicly disagree with most of his progressive views then?
Tomtfab
Any Environment Minister has to make decisions based on the law. If he fails to do this his decision will be appealed to the Courts.
AG wrote:
The wool perhaps came from different sheep. The cloth came from the same tedious, yarn-spinning factory.
The Libs routinely ooze “We’re the best. We’re the natural rulers. Everybody knows it. Why don’t the public just admit it?” and so on etc.
Once when Hawke said “Labor are the natural government of Australia” it caused a furore. No-one from his side in Federal politics has said it publicly since or even hinted at it. The Liberals are constantly on about it. They need to get over it or else they’ll be in opposition for years to come.
… and sauce bottles. I wonder when that’ll come up next?
Amazing how the commentators are mostly saying, “This is a Rudd we never knew.” They don’t get it at all. He won’t fit in their box.
Some recommendation! Two interesting points here, though.
Why would the electorate be impressed by this. “driven by his beliefs, not opinion polls.” His “beliefs” have been soundly rejected by the public through having their say in opinion polls. They also have rejected the Coalition as a whole going by the polls.
How “authentic” is a Leader (with a philosophical vein) who is driving his “beliefs” which are being soundly rejected by the electorate as reflected in the opinion polls. Multitudes of them!
How “authentic” is a Leader who uses forged documents (“not” authentic for those who are intellectually challenged) to try and bring down the country’s Prime Minister, Treasurer and hence the Government.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
What is Malcolm’s “philosophical vein” – I deserve to be PM?
“Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been criticised by West Australian Labor for pulling out of the party’s State Conference in Perth.
Mr Rudd was to be the keynote speaker at this weekend’s conference but cancelled earlier this week, citing a clash in schedules” ABC online
I guess making a total dick of yourself on Rove is more important when you’re a show pony?
JoelB1 – just think how much money Kev saved us by not flying to WA.
225 – Good one Joel. Enjoy opposition for a long time friend.
Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.
I see you avatar is a billy goat. It was the billy goats gruff who were locked in battle with a troll. Maybe you should change your avatar to a troll.
Over the last 25 years, Labor has been the natural party of state government. Over that time, Labor has been in Power:
W.A. 16 years
S.A 15 years
Vic 18 years
N.S.W. 17.5
Tas 14 years
QLD 18 years.
Plus the first ever Labor government in N.T. starting in 2001, and just over half of the years of ACT self government have been Labor controlled.
Yes, especially if it is the W.A. Labor party.
Oops my apologies, that should be “a no-show pony”
LOL now that’s funny!!!
Abbott whinging to all and sundry that his man had the kitchen sink thrown at him needs to be reminded of one thing – Turnbull started it. The school bully has met his match (and then some). HTFU Turnbull or leave the playground.
Musrum @ 214 wrote:
“No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…”
Like The Democratic Labor Party?
It does. These days, it’s called the religious right wing of the NSW Liberal party, and equivalents federally and in other states/territories. And it’s been very effective at keeping out of office the party it claims as its own.
How about “The Genuinely “l”iberal Liberal Party? You know, the party of Casey and Hasluck, Holt and Gorton, Fraser (probably even peacock).
Hilarious Joel B1.
@228 Steve K
“Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.”
Ohhhh, I’m crying now, boo hoo…
You’re not a Rudd staffer/twitterer are you?
You know, the ones who gushed about Rudd on Rove, “I’ve got lot more respect
”
Or was this you “Sauce bottle joke – awesome! ‘Not often enough”?
That’s class!
Joel B1 you’re not Christopher Pyne are you?
You know, the one who gushed about Turnbull …
B1
While there are probably grounds to deny viewers of Rove the ability to cast a vote, they do vote.
They will now mostly vote for St Kev – that is why he appeared on the show.
@236 entre…
I know you’re a genuine Labor supporter because you “misdirect” every minor criticism of Rudd back to “but you’re one too!”
PS anyone brave enough to talk about Gillard? Esp. now she’s out of the country? I know I feel safer.
Which is a better move than appearing in front of the Party Faithfull at a State Conference.
Which is why Rudd successfully targetted the youth vote by appearing on Rove and FM Radio. The Libs still believe it is 1955 Australia and react accordingly 🙂
@237 ruawake,
but not if they live in WA and used to vote Labor.
JoelB1 – my teenage grandkids thought it was great and they will be first time voters in 2010.
Both happy with what they saw and heard. Lucky Kev – another conquest.
@239, FC,
I thought Howard pioneered FM radio? He’s often criticised for it.
Actually since elected PM, Rudd has been to WA more times than Turnbull has had successful hits at the Government 🙂