Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).

UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.

Two news nuggets to go:

• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.

Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,436 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  1. ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, June 26, 2009 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    I think to consider the current economic leader as a second power is to ignore reality.

    The E.U. is a collection of countries. The U.S. is ONE country which itself comprises just under 25% of the world’s wealth.

    Both are federations, different rules, economic power is the thing that matters, always has been, military power only matters if it helps the former. Both are economic blocks, both will compete for economic advantage, at the moment the USA’s military power is not helping them win the economic game, there influence is shrinking as a result.

  2. For those who want my Gravitar, you can right click on it and save it locally and use it at your leisure – I can’t remember where I originally got it from.

  3. 3352

    So no point in asking where to get the corresponding “OTHER LIARS” under the ALP logo, then.

  4. the final say on MJ

    [The coroner doesn’t know whether to blame the cause of death on the Sunshine. Moonlight. Good times, or the Boogie.]

  5. The Wind That Shakes The Barley MJ might have been an odd person but he’s not even in the ground and people like you are making jokes…not cool IMHO….

  6. Fredin 3351

    In 1909, the world’s greatest powers were Great Britain and Germany. The USA probably ranked with Russia in terms of forward estimates, especially in terms of carbon fuels and manufacturing capacity; both ahead of the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy.

    In 1806, the world’s greatest power was Napoleon’s France, although Britain’s burgeoning Industrial Revolution, and colonial empire after 1763 made it well nigh unbeatable on forward estimates – within a decade (1815) France was beaten into submission by UK, Prussia & other German states, and Russia.

    In 1706, Louis XIV’s France was master; England was between Jacobites v Parliament + civil wars, Russia was a weird mysterious state East of everywhere “civilised” and no one had heard of Brandenburg-Prussia

    In 1606, despite what Elizabeth’s Seadogs did to the Armada, Spain was top dog.

    Notice anything?

  7. Psephos @ 3285

    I usually agree with your sanguine comments but I can’t with comment that “if newspapers influenced politics Rudd would never have PM in the first place”.

    In my opinion Rudd despite the newspapers, shock jocks, etc. and had he been given the same cosy treatment that was given to the liberals he would have been given a much larger margin. The senate results may have been slightly different also.

  8. [Both are economic blocks, both will compete for economic advantage, at the moment the USA’s military power is not helping them win the economic game, there influence is shrinking as a result.]
    I think you’ve got things backwards. Countries don’t engage in war to protect their economic interests, wars are expensive and result in a lot of people dying which reduces living standards.

    Military strength is determined by economic strength, not the other way around.

  9. Glen

    I agree. It’s like the Bushfires and climate change. There’s no need to bag people at a bad time. Lots of people loved MJ. I never liked his music much but if one of my heroes died I’d be pretty disappointed by jokes at this stage.

  10. Glen, this is about respecting the dead, yes?

    Well, what respect does some androgynous freak with an unhealthy obsession with children deserve when, were he someone of lesser financial means, would have spent the final years of his life rotting behind bars?

    I just do not understand why those that were dross in life become saints in death. It’s all very very warped.

  11. Poss, I suppose 750,000,000 album sales were luck. I must admit the eddie van halen guitar on “beat it” is about the only stuff I like in MJ’s music.

    He was a sad person – but on the day of his death his achievements should be acknowledged.

  12. [He was a sad person – but on the day of his death his achievements should be acknowledged.]

    A play on some of his most famous lyrics is acknowledgement

  13. Album sales have little to do with talent these days.

    I know some of you want to do the sack cloth and ashes stuff and that’s fine.
    If you don’t want to do the joke thing, great, good for you.
    But you don’t have the right to tell others they can’t.

  14. ru

    I think Poss’ point was that the 750,000,000 albums shouldn’t have anything to do with it. The guy should probably have been in jail.

    Let them take a passing shot …

  15. I’m not fussed about talent, album sales or any of that. I’m saying that plenty of people aer upset by his death and they don’t need to be kicked while they are down.

    That’s just common decency.

  16. What I want to know is why do people who have never bought his songs, now buy them?

    His aldums now account for 6 of the Top 10 selling albums on the US itunes store. Why? Surely if you’ve already got his CD you don’t need to buy them again, and if you don’t have them, you’ve obviously decided in the past you didn’t need them. Why buy them now? It’s not like there’s a litmited number of them avaliable.

  17. [The guy should probably have been in jail.]

    All I know is that the guy has never been found guilty of anything. Many of his accusers have been. 😛

  18. Someone on Jack the Insider’s blog had heard that C Pyne will not contest the next election. Has any PB been able to verify this rumor?
    Would this signal he’s moving to state politics?

  19. If it was a suburban pedophile who had died in a ramshackle house the neighbours would be dancing in the streets and the media would be there painting a picture of great celebrations.

    Celebrities are treated with such hypocrisy.

  20. [you’ve obviously decided in the past you didn’t need them. Why buy them now?]
    People having babies, babies growing up?

  21. Or, as the fake Godwin Grech just said on twitter:

    [Reports of Michael Jackson having a heart attack are incorrect, he has been found in the children’s ward, having a stroke!]

    Honestly – the guy was vile creep. Since Godwin has already been mentioned, we might as well break Godwin’s law – do we eulogise Hitler as an environmentalist, artist and poet now he’s dead?

    Course not.

  22. [Someone on Jack the Insider’s blog had heard that C Pyne will not contest the next election]

    Go Mia!!

    I think that is all to do with the rumour he is going to be drafted in to take over the SA Libs leadership.

  23. [Would this signal he’s moving to state politics?]
    Might be a smart move. Premier of SA looks allot more achievable than anything federal ATM.

  24. kleewyk

    That one’s been going around for ages. I haven’t heard anything to confirm it and I’ve heard a few Libs say it’s not true.


    It’s the Madness of Crowds phenomenon.

  25. Aristotle, for the Warthog courage story, many thanks. It sort of compliments the Bernard Keane 4.00am courage story, very nicely.

  26. [Someone on Jack the Insider’s blog had heard that C Pyne will not contest the next election. Has any PB been able to verify this rumor?]

    It true this is very sad news indeed. I will missed that high pitched squeak from the dispatch box “Mister Speak…on the matter of relevance…” plus running a tab on how often he will get turfed out in a sitting week.

  27. Rua – selling albums and being a shit of a person has never been particularly incompatible. Or is the truth of a person now singularly related to their turnover?

    Nothing wrong with acknowledging his achievements, but his flaws arent something to be nonchalantly pushed aside.

  28. How bad was Pyne’s decision to be absent for a week and let Abbott show everyone how it should be done?

    Do you think anyone on the Libs front bench this week was thinking:
    “Geez, if only we had Christopher here to help us out of this jam”.?

  29. Possum

    I’m all for honesty about celebrities after they’re dead but it can wait a few days until his funeral is over.

  30. “If Turnbull was down would you still kick him!?!”

    Yes, but not to the extent that he’s so black and blue that they replace him as leader of the opposition rabble. I kinda hope he leads the Libs to the next election, but then loses his seat. That would be just so sweet!

    I know that Howard was only the second sitting PM to lose his seat. anyone know how many serving opposition leaders have lost their seats at an election??

  31. [Honestly – the guy was vile creep.]

    Who has never had any charge against him substantiated in a court of law, while his accusers have been charged with fraud. 🙁

    Sorry I am one of those guys who believes in court rulings – even if I do not agree with the verdict.

  32. It’s an interesting thing that Poss points to, you know, and quite true. Both myself and any number of my therapist buddies treat people who are very successful publicly in any number of fields, but deeply flawed humans. The ones who are likely to be truly troublesome, in terms of their capacity to harm others with no compunction, are a real worry.

  33. I bet this is one that Rudd has up his sleeve to use against Turnbull. Could be many restless nights over the next couple months or so. Courtesy of a post on JTI.

    [I suppose that all will be revealed over time but I imagine the AFP may be interested to find out if there was a premature release of the Bank Guarantee which could have enabled some of our more well heeled representatives to shift their stash from investments to banks. ]

  34. ruawake

    [Sorry I am one of those guys who believes in court rulings – even if I do not agree with the verdict.]

    So do I but I was prepared to make an exception in the OJ case.

  35. Well, the MJ stuff has been all over the ABC today, including dominating the TV News tonight. Deeply shallow.

  36. Yes, when you’re a multimillionaire, and your particular kink is small boys from broken homes, you can usually buy off the family with a million bucks or so. Your average paedophile doesn’t have this advantage. (Is Dolly Dunn still in jail, by the way?)

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