Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).

UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.

Two news nuggets to go:

• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.

Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,436 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  1. [After all, the tele printed the email after Rudd’s office had denied its existence, and without referring to the denial]

    I would’ve printed it along with the denial. After all the PM’s office has mislead the press in the past.

    [Which people and what were they expecting ltep?]

    I’ve seen references here to 58/42 and 62/38 but I’m not going to trawl through the posts to find out who it was who claimed such things.

  2. [Oh I’d definitely agree with that. The Australian really is a joke, possibly second only to The West Australian as most blatantly partisan paper in the country.]

    Actually to be fair, The West under it’s new editor isn’t as partisan as it was under Armstrong and it has given the Barnett Govt some grief.

  3. If Newspoll returns to 55-45 on Tuesday it will be reported as “Ute-Gate scars Turnbull” even though the poll is just saying the same thing it has for the past two years.

  4. Good to hear Frank. All anyone can ask of a paper is fair and balanced reporting. Bias either way is wrong IMHO.

  5. [4:20pm, Poss said: “I’m wondering what you people are smoking in here today?”]

    Top marks to Poss.

    Vera, With respect…I don’t see this comment

    [KEVIN Rudd has sought to put the OzCar affair behind him]

    as quite the same as suggesting “rudd (is) running away from utegate”

  6. I note that Wikipedia changed the name of their article from “Utegate” to “OzCar Affair”, on the grounds that the latter now had greater currency.

  7. [KEVIN Rudd has sought to put the OzCar affair behind him

    as quite the same as suggesting “rudd (is) running away from utegate”]

    My reading on that is that Rudd is controlling the agenda – he knows that when the AFP report is made public, Turnbull will be in all kinds of crap. So he shows that whilst Turnbull is busy lying, he’s busy governing.

    Good move.

  10. Steve K I get your point but
    [KEVIN Rudd has sought to put the OzCar affair behind him]
    IMO suggests he doesn’t want to know about, ie affair a negative for him?

  11. Psephos
    Posted Friday, June 26, 2009 at 2:31 pm
    Japan’s population in 100 years will be about half what it is now. The country will be inhabited mainly by pensioners and robots. The super powers of the coming century will be the US, China and India. Second order powers will be the EU, Brazil, Korea, Indonesia, maybe Russia if they can sort their government out, maybe Japan.

    Only one country has work out how to expand it’s economic borders without war, and that is the EU, within the the next 100 years Russia will probable be part of that economic block. The US will be nothing because they still believes in blood and guts, and has destroyed itself economically going down that path.

    The EU is already the largest economic block. Need to move on Psephos, the ways of the last 300 years are over.

  12. I see it differently Vera. Kerr could be suggesting that Rudd has said “Look, you guys (in the media) can argue it out amongst yourselves, I’ve got a country to run.”

  16. Morgan Poll:

    Rudd Government support drops as “Ute-gate” emerges as issue
    ALP (55%, down 2%) ahead of L-NP (45%, up 2%)

    In late June 2009 ALP primary support fell 2.5% to 46% and L-NP support rose 3% to 41% the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend of June 20/21 shows. However, if a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would retain Government.

    On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 55% (down 2%), while support for the L-NP is 45% (up 2%).

    Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8.5% (up 1.5%), support for Family First 1% (down 1.5%) and Independents/Others 3.5% (down 0.5%).

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Last weekend’s Morgan Poll (June 20/21, 2009), taken after Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull called for the resignation of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan over the “Ute-gate” affair shows a tightening in support between the two major parties — although the Rudd Government still holds an election winning lead on a two-party preferred basis (55% cf. 45%).

    “The initial focus of this affair was Malcolm Turnbull’s attack on the Government’s credibility — asking Rudd and Swan to resign for apparently misleading Parliament — subsequent revelations have brought that line of attack into question.

    “The next Morgan Poll, now being conducted, will give a clear indication of how the events surrounding “Ute-gate” have affected the standings of the Federal Government and Opposition.”

  17. [The US will be nothing because they still believes in blood and guts, and has destroyed itself economically going down that path.]

    The US is the only country with the ability to project it’s military power wherever it feels like it. It does it to protect its economic interests.

    Any country that does not like it will get a carrier battle group cruising by. I don’t like it but its a fact of life.

    The US will be a, if not the, superpower for the foreseeable future.

  20. [The US will be nothing because they still believes in blood and guts, and has destroyed itself economically going down that path.]
    This makes no sense. The U.S. economy is the same size as the other four economies in the top five put together.

  21. [I’m hearing some gossip (and it is unconfirmed scuttlebutt at this stage) that is going around in media circles that MT was set up by some of his own colleagues in the Liberal Party.]
    If this is the case, I think Tony Abbott was involved.

  22. The EU suffers from having an overly eurosceptic voting population and national governments. This might change slightly if the EU Citizens resident in EU member states had voting rights in more places.

    Europe has rejected and foot-dragged on many European unity initiatives. The European Defence Community and the European Political Community being examples. If they had got up in the early to mid-fifties when they were proposed then Europe would be more united and powerful today.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Defence_Community

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Political_Community

  24. [Europe has rejected and foot-dragged on many European unity initiatives.]
    The E.U. itself is a European unity initiative. Along with NATO, it was put together to stop European countries going to war against each other, which had been a constant event in the first half of the 20th century.

  25. 3320

    The US is so big as an economy partly because it has such a large population (over 300 million) and the other nations of the first world have smaller populations (Japan 120, Germany 80, UK, France and Italy 60 (all millions)). The US has had economic success in the past but has economic problems at the moment and is loosing ground.

  26. ShowsOn,

    It would certainly be a major blow for the Liberals if true.

    a) Turnbull shown as reckless and impulsive (for not checking the authenticity)

    b) A deeply, possibly fatally divided party

    c) Turnbull’s position almost untenable, on account of his impulsiveness and the “no confidence” of his erstwhile colleagues

    d) Persons unknown, possibly Liberals, to possibly face charges for the email

    Pheeeeeew.

  27. [The US is so big as an economy partly because it has such a large population (over 300 million)]
    For economies over $1 trillion, based on GDP per capita (the size of the economy in purchasing power parity GDP, divided by the population) the United States is by far the biggest economy.

    The U.S. GDP per capita is around $40,000, compared to Japan, Australia, Canada around $35,000.

    The U.S. economy is #1 even after this massive financial meltdown, anyone who thinks otherwise is just arguing against facts.

  29. 3324

    I said many European unity initiatives not all of them. The EDC and EPC I mention in that post would have meant a much more united Europe which may have expanded more quickly (for example the coup in France may have been averted in 58 and thus de Gaulle not been in power to block the entry of the UK which caused several nations to withdraw membership applications).

  30. [If this is the case, I think Tony Abbott was involved.]

    There is an uncanny similarity between what “senior liberal sources” have said and Tony Abbott’s reported words. 😉

  32. 3328

    Ah yes. Seems so long ago I remember reading live the comment about the sky sound quality and then these two posts back to back:

    [# Glen Posted Friday, June 19, 2009 at 7:33 pm

    Can they get the AFP in to search for the emails???
    The emails sound like the Nixon tapes…

    # 1968 Generic Person
    Posted Friday, June 19, 2009 at 7:33 pm
    Terrible broadcast quality from Sky!!]

    And then the government’s response was heard by all.

    A week truely is a LONG LONG time in politics.

    Oh, and Glen. The email turned out to be nothing like the Nixon Tapes. It was more like a suicide note from MT. 🙂

  33. [I still want to know how the utegate term stuck- it’s not finns fault is it?? Ironically, its actually insulting that was a ‘gate’ but the fake email certainly got it to that status!!]
    I think we should call it fakegate, because it is about a fake email, and it’s not a real gate. ‘-gate’ should be reserved for scandals that bring down governments. Like the equally over-used ‘killing fields’ it devalues the currency of the original when used trivially.
    [If this is the case, I think Tony Abbott was involved.]
    If that is the case, he obviously thinks he’s going to get away with it, because he is looking rather confident lately. My money would be on someone looking more worried.

  36. 3334

    No one sensible is saying that the US is a second power now but they are saying that it is on its way down.

  37. This makes no sense. The U.S. economy is the same size as the other four economies in the top five put together.

    Yep and that have burnt a lot of gold in the last 10 years, they survive because they where the reserve currency, this is also coming to an end.

    The USA was the biggest economic block, it is no more.

  39. [I’m hearing some gossip (and it is unconfirmed scuttlebutt at this stage) that is going around in media circles that MT was set up by some of his own colleagues in the Liberal Party.]

    Now that would be the biggest cherry on top of the biggest cake ever.

    My fear has been that it would come out that the ALP had tried to trap MT – which would not be a good look at all. I wouldn’t care if Rudd or Swan had nothing to do with it, it would be just stupid, stupid, stupid.

  40. [Talk about unfair, Microsoft have a 50% off promotion for Windows 7 pre-orders, but it doesn’t include Australia:]

    ShowsOn, you computer nerd! Back to Whirlpool with you!!! 🙂

  41. Well certainly Abbott would gain from finishing off Turnbull since Costello decided to go, he would almost be the last man standing.

    But I am thinking Turnbull is the man Labor would love to keep in the role now.

  42. [ute stuff proves how rabid the murdoch media]

    I recall the unbridled joy at the GG (as it was then) over Burke-gate. They thought they had ruined Rudd by really sinking the Burke boot in. But nobody noticed, they were like men in dark suits who had wet themselves.

  43. ruawake
    Posted Friday, June 26, 2009 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    The US is the only country with the ability to project it’s military power wherever it feels like it. It does it to protect its economic interests.

    Any country that does not like it will get a carrier battle group cruising by. I don’t like it but its a fact of life.

    The US will be a, if not the, superpower for the foreseeable future.

    The last 10 years has really worked out well hasn’t it? It’s cost them a lot and they have stuff all to show for it. A military machine is only worth something if it brings you a net economic gain. The British empire ended when the cost exceeded the benefit. We have just seen a USA war where the cost exceeded the benefit by a long way.

  47. From Courtney Gibson at the ABC:

    [courtney_gibsonPls ReTweet this: 90mins MichaelJackson Rage from 12.25am 2nite, WILL include b&w Jackson5 + GTK material + full-length Bad & Thriller clips]

  48. [I think to consider the current economic leader as a second power is to ignore reality.]
    The E.U. is a collection of countries. The U.S. is ONE country which itself comprises just under 25% of the world’s wealth.

  49. Some jokes that got texted to me:

    They have a real problem at the LA hospital where MJ was pronounced dead. They don’t know what to do with the body because the plastic recycling bin isn’t put out for colllection until Tuesday!

    He specified in his will that he wants to be melted down and turned into a PlayStation so that kids can play with him for a change!

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