Essential Research: 56-44

Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.

• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.

• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.

• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,752 thoughts on “Essential Research: 56-44”

Comments Page 3 of 36
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  1. He’s already spent $600,000 on the court case in the past few years. Not to mention he has a life which he spends money in. He’s not made of money.

    Now if it was Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull in exactly the same situation the rigteous Greens would be jumping up and down and would be asking the same questions as we are here.

    Go find some facts rather than baseless assertions.

    I think that should also apply to the Greens.

  2. Frank
    I don’t know where you get your logic from but it is exceedingly poor.

    I’ll summarise your argument:

    “I made up some stuff but it’s not wrong because of something that is not related in anyway to what we are talking about”

    You are simply making stuff up. You are making stuff up in an attempt to make Bob Brown look bad. That is smearing.
    You are irrelevant to the discussion

  4. Frank

    “Now if it was Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull in exactly the same situation the rigteous Greens would be jumping up and down and would be asking the same questions as we are here.”

    Making up more stuff! When you’re shown to be wrong you just make up more stuff and pretend that is true instead.

    I was right, you are a Labor Party Spambot that just spews out made up stuff in an attempt to smear Bob Brown

  6. He’s already spent $600,000 on the court case in the past few years. Not to mention he has a life which he spends money in. He’s not made of money.

    IF he takes this HUGE amount of money from DS and these faceless OTHERS (who may or may not be chinese) he is effectively bought and paid for. As the “learned” members of the msm bleated last week – “apperance is everything” in polictics.

    And what other money or other consideration has BB accepted that he may wish to now tell people about…where there is samoke there is firree..

    mmmmm…velly serious stuff 🙂

  9. Have we not learnt that responding to the likes of Frank is pointless?

    Prediction – Frank will accuse me of stifling debate.

  10. Making up more stuff! When you’re shown to be wrong you just make up more stuff and pretend that is true instead.

    I was right, you are a Labor Party Spambot that just spews out made up stuff in an attempt to smear Bob Brown

    Geez, I thought you had a sembl,ence of intgelligence- I was making a HYPOTHETICAL Statement.

    Oh so I’m a spambot who smears your precious Bob Brown – – cannot engage in rational argument, so you resort to a personal attack against ANYBODY who dares applies the same standards of Bob Brown as he does against Labor & Liberal Politicians who may be in a similar situation to himself.

  13. oh anf BTW not a sausage tonight on the abc about this ??

    Why not ? Why don’t all the usual rules apply to BB ??

  14. Have we not learnt that responding to the likes of Frank is pointless?

    Prediction – Frank will accuse me of stifling debate.

    I don’t need to, yourself and Astroblume are doing it all on your own.

  15. Does anyone else use their Parliamentary standing as a pulpit to beg for money to settle personal debts?

    GG, you’re being very silly and petty. It’s not a personal debt, it’s legal costs arising from a case he brought in what he saw as the public interest, to save the spotted nematode or whatever it was. He’s spent a lot of his own money, and now he’s threatened with bankruptcy and expulsion from parliament. He’s not asking for money to put in his own pocket. I think he’s entitled to ask for help and I intend making a donation, despite my well-known non-support for the Greens.

  16. From the 12th edition ofThe Australia Institute’s e-bulletin Between the Lines, 9/7/2009

    MUTUAL OBLIGATION BY ANY OTHER NAME

    A few weeks ago, Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a ‘Compact with Young Australians’ on behalf of the Council of Australian Governments. Under the terms of the Compact, COAG will guarantee an education or training place for all people who are under 25 and find themselves out of work. On the other side of the bargain, if young people refuse to participate in training (regardless of whether it is appropriate for them), they will lose welfare benefits.

    Calling this initiative a ‘compact’ is highly misleading. The Macquarie Dictionary defines a compact as ‘an agreement between parties; a covenant; a contr act’. Yet COAG, or rather the Rudd Government with the acquiescence of the states, made this decision on its own without consulting any young people. It is an announcement, not an agreement.

    Putting aside the spin, of more concern is how closely this initiative resembles the Howard Government’s policy of ‘mutual obligation’, known colloquially as ‘work for the dole’. The government is understandably worried about social security expenditure as unemployment rises and wants to contain the national welfare bill. But mutual obligation wasn’t only about money; it was also designed to send a message to the electorate.

    As Ms Gillard explained, ‘[W

    e are going to say to those young people very clearly and with some force … that if they’re not in work, they must be in training’. The ‘compact’ is nothing more than a tightening of the rules for receiving welfare, dressed up as a helping hand for vulnerable young people. It also exploits public prejudice about do -nothing dole bludgers, who must be forced to comply with someone else’s standards of behaviour.

    As the economy slows, new entrants into the labour market in general, and young people in particular, will be the first to suffer. Increased investment in education and training is a step in the right direction but recycling the rhetoric of the Howard years to demonise the young is a big step backwards.]

    Youth Compact Announcement:http://www.deewr.gov.au/Ministers/Gillard/Media/Releases/Pages/Article_090430_154925.aspx

  17. oh anf BTW not a sausage tonight on the abc about this ??

    Why not ? Why don’t all the usual rules apply to BB ??

    If it was Kevin Rudd, the story would be lead item on “their ABC”

  19. bob1234,

    sorry, mate 🙂 … have been in and out this afternoon and not read every post as much as I would like to …

  20. 118.

    And Frank, you’re not being very helpful to the Labor cause. Give the Green-baiting a rest, comrade.

    Phesphos,

    I will not sit and let these so called posters attack me and the ALP. If t’s good for the goose, it’s good for the gander I say.

  21. If it was Kevin Rudd, the story would be lead item on “their ABC”

    Frank, IF it was rudd it would be the end of civilisation as we know it. The world would have stopped spinning by now.

  24. psephos,

    It’s a personal debt incurred in his political activities otherwise it would not be him that the plaintiff is chasing for the money.

    Dress it up, excuse it or talk to it, it is a personal debt.

    What you do with your money is no business of mine. My charity is restricted to worthy causes.

  25. Why not ? Why don’t all the usual rules apply to BB ??

    Because accusations have been made against Rudd giving the car company financial benefit for the free car. No accusions have been made against Brown for giving Dick Smith anything. And let’s not forget the Greens aren’t in government so makes it pretty hard for them anyway.

    And Frank, you’re not being very helpful to the Labor cause. Give the Green-baiting a rest, comrade.

    Owned.

  26. Now this is a guillotine

    The $8,000 rebate is being scrapped in favour of a market-driven system of solar credits and the switch-over was expected to be at the end of the month.

    But this morning, the Government announced it would not accept any more applications after close of business today.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/09/2593248.htm

    My sister works for a solar panel company. She said they sent off 27kg worth of applications today. (she said it was easier to weigh them than count them!)

    So why have they done it?

    Here’s some figures:

    When announced in November 2007, the Solar Homes and Communities Plan was allocated $150 million to provide up to $8,000 for up to 3,000 homes each year over five years.

    The Solar Homes and Communities has gone far beyond this, resulting in:

    32,000 solar systems installed as at 5 June, a number which is increasing each week
    A further 63,000 installations still to be completed

    Talk about blowing out the budget!
    http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/renewable/pv/index.html

  27. And Frank, you’re not being very helpful to the Labor cause. Give the Green-baiting a rest, comrade.

    Owned.

    How can ity be Owned, as I am my own person who doesn’t have to follow the advice of a fellow ALP Person – it seemsPhesphos is a lone voice amongst the bulk of ALP people posting.

  28. How can ity be Owned, as I am my own person who doesn’t have to follow the advice of a fellow ALP Person – it seemsPhesphos is a lone voice amongst the bulk of ALP people posting.

    He used to be a Labor staffer and knows more about Labor than any other poster. He’s been a lot higher than any other poster has ever been.

    Unless I am mistaken…?

  29. psephos, – It’s a personal debt incurred in his political activities

    i did advise Herr Doktor to stick to history

  30. 109, I’ve learned.

    118, I’ve tried that tack several weeks ago. Got the same reply. Now I take the “do not read” approach. Works wonders 😀

  31. I think it’s way past time that you characters desist with your baiting and trolling on this site.

    It may seem funny to you but you are hijacking what is generally a site that reasonably intelligent posters outline their opinions and try to inform other posters and people who enjoy reading informative, analytic commentary.

    What I have been suffering through over the past few days is bordering on the insufferable and is nothing more than a betrayal of the opportunity given to people by William to express an opinion in an intelligent and civilised manner.

    Can we have a bit of decorum here please and leave the personal snipes and trolling for an anticipated response to keep the whole sordid nonsense going on indefinitely to sites such as Bolters and Pied. Please!!!

  32. He used to be a Labor staffer and knows more about Labor than any other poster. He’s been a lot higher than any other poster has ever been.

    But that is beside the point, he is stating a contrary point to the other ALP peop[le who post here and proves that we in the ALP can and do tolerate a wide range of views, but generally we are in broad agreement.

    Stop muddying the Waters.

  34. There’s only one here that makes things go too far. Frank. The rest of the Labor posters, and the Green posters, do not go too far. Frank does.

  35. Could you inform me what those allegations are please bob? All I remember is innuendo.

    Which is pretty much what the accusations against Bob Brown are. We see anti-Green Laborites slamming Bob Brown for accepting a donation, with no accusations by journalists or politicians of improper acts. We have seen accusations by politicians of improper acts when it comes to Rudd/Ozcar. I’m not saying they’re justified, but what I am saying, is how can one slam Bob Brown but not Kevin Rudd?

  36. Because accusations have been made against Rudd giving the car company financial benefit for the free car.

    More accurately he was questioned. He rebutted such question without qualification and rudd was in no position to give the car company financial benefit. You may recall any benefit is decided independently and in any case is in the form of car industry finance, not to car dealers. Got that ?

    No accusions have been made against Brown for giving Dick Smith anything.

    Questions are being quite righly asked and need to be answered. What has he got to hide ?

  37. There’s only one here that makes things go too far. Frank. The rest of the Labor posters, and the Green posters, do not go too far. Frank does.

    Ahh, don’t like the argument, so you go on the personal attack.

    How typical and hypocritcal of you – why don’t you lay the SAME accusation against Greensborough Growler, Ruawake, Vera, Zoomster and Gary Bruce who have made exactly the same comments as I have.

    And before you accuse me of “T*olling” Look in the mirror yourself.

  38. Which is pretty much what the accusations against Bob Brown are. We see anti-Green Laborites slamming Bob Brown for accepting a donation, with no accusations by journalists or politicians of improper acts. We have seen accusations by politicians of improper acts when it comes to Rudd/Ozcar. I’m not saying they’re justified, but what I am saying, is how can one slam Bob Brown but not Kevin Rudd?

    Kevin Rudd expressed some support for Dr Brown today didn’t he?

  39. So why have they done it?

    Well they released those figures and used that as justification for ending the rebate on June 30.

    I don’t get why they moved it forward from June 30 to today with less than a days notice.

  41. He used to be a Labor staffer and knows more about Labor than any other poster. He’s been a lot higher than any other poster has ever been.

    Finns

    Herr Doktor is now
    Comrade Cosmonaut

  42. Questions are being quite righly asked and need to be answered. What has he got to hide ?

    Dave,

    St Bob is untouchable and Pure – to do so would be subject to you being referred to as a Labor Spambot and Smearer.

  43. How typical and hypocritcal of you – why don’t you lay the SAME accusation against Greensborough Growler, Ruawake, Vera, Zoomster and Gary Bruce who have made exactly the same comments as I have.

    Because you go way too far, unlike the others you mention.

  45. dave and PAAPTSEF – my point is this.

    People like Frank have criticised Bob Brown for taking the donation and have called it improper and needs investigation. Did they say the same when they heard Rudd accepted his donation?

    No.

    Two standards here.

  46. He’s been a lot higher than any other poster has ever been

    Herr Doktor is now Comrade Cosmonaut

    Gus, i see what you mean.

    jump, how high, comrade.

    😎

  47. Oz

    You should learn to read polly speak, the words were the solar rebate would be in place until “before the 30th June”. 🙁

  48. bob1234,

    Get a grip mate. You have almost single handledly hijacked this blog for your own selfish pleasure in baiting anjd abusing other posters.

    I’m out of here. I can’s stand to read such abject nonsense.

  49. Did everyone see Newt Gringrich’s piece of brilliance? I caught it from Paul Krugman’s blog….

    “I think this is one of the most critical moments in American history,” Gingrich said. “We are living in a period where we are surrounded by paganism.”

    Wow. And I keep getting distracted by worldwide recession!

  50. Pots & Kettles.

    Frank Frank Frank.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/05/morgan-58-42-3/all-comments/#comment-285563
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/05/morgan-58-42-3/all-comments/#comment-285559
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/05/morgan-58-42-3/all-comments/#comment-284525
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/25/essential-research-59-41-3/all-comments/#comment-278616

    What more proof do you need that you’re the problem?

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