The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:
• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.
• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.
• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.
• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.
• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.
• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.
• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.
Frank i think this is a set up by BB.
Look at the facts.
He’s known for a year he owes $200,000…hasnt told anyone he owes the money and waits till the last hour to tell everyone he’ll go bankrupt and lose his seat if he cant come up with the dosh.
Me thinks BB may have not wanted to pay this money and now people are generously offering dosh to BB for nothing…
BB got himself into this mess and he should get himself out IMHO.
The Greens just had their first taste of real politics and they don’t like it.
Now who was it that mentioned blowtorches and bellies? 🙂
1395
Make Fielding responsible for the debt and get him out through donations.
(just kidding)
Seems the Labor and Liberal diehards are suddenly very bitter that someone has come to the rescue of Bob Brown. What a shame for them!
bob1234 that’s because he’s being rescued from his own stupidity!
[Seems the Labor and Liberal diehards are suddenly very bitter that someone has come to the rescue of Bob Brown. What a shame for them!]
Yet if these same benefactors came to the aid of a Liberal or Labor Poltician these oh so morally pure Greens would be crying foul.
You cannot have it both ways.
[bob1234 that’s because he’s being rescued from his own stupidity!]
Dick Smith doesn’t see it that way.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/09/2593414.htm
[Dick Smith doesn’t see it that way.]
Dick Smith is such a media whore he would give financial support to Osama Bin Laden if it got his big mug on TV.
[Yet if these same benefactors came to the aid of a Liberal or Labor Poltician these oh so morally pure Greens would be crying foul.
You cannot have it both ways.]
Depends on the circumstances. If a Labor Senator had a court bill under the same circumstances, and had someone bail them out, i’d be happy. If a coalition Senator, i’d be unhappy. But that’s my own bias. That’s totally different from the legal side of it. I mightnt like a coalition Senator being helped but if its above board its above board. Pure and simple as that.
But I assume you’ll quote me, take my words out of context and call me a hypocrite?
Remember, what I personally like, and what’s legally and morally right, are two different things.
[Dick Smith is such a media whore he would give financial support to Osama Bin Laden if it got his big mug on TV.]
Was I right or was I right? Dick Smith is Frank’s new enemy 😀
[The Greens just had their first taste of real politics and they don’t like it.
Now who was it that mentioned blowtorches and bellies? 🙂 ]
I know – but can you imagine their indignation if it was a Labor Poltician having his court costs paid for by the Union Movement – especially if it was the CFMEU and it involved a coal mine which the Greens wanted to close down ?
[Was I right or was I right? Dick Smith is Frank’s new enemy :D]
I’ve always flound Dick Smith to be a pompus windbag – especially on his Buy Australia crusade – oh and he was a supporter of Pauline Hanson at one stage if I am not mistaken 🙂
I think Frank keeps forgetting i’m a Labor supporter at heart who votes Green/viable socially progressive third party of the time, to keep Labor on its toes and remind them they cant go too far to the right at the expense of the left.
[I know – but can you imagine their indignation if it was a Labor Poltician having his court costs paid for by the Union Movement – especially if it was the CFMEU and it involved a coal mine which the Greens wanted to close down ?]
I wouldn’t care to be honest.
[I know – but can you imagine their indignation if it was a Labor Poltician having his court costs paid for by the Union Movement – especially if it was the CFMEU and it involved a coal mine which the Greens wanted to close down ?]
I could not care less although probably in these circumstances the Union would have taken the action themselves as they have standing to take action in their own name.
A prediction – No Federal Green will mention donations for the next decade. “Swift Parrot-Gate” will be resurrected whenever they make a minute squeak about someone getting a few bucks.
The irony is just so sweet. 😉
I propose a motion to move past this ridiculous and immature waste of time by simply ignoring pointless posts, particularly Frank’s.
[A prediction – No Federal Green will mention donations for the next decade. “Swift Parrot-Gate” will be resurrected whenever they make a minute squeak about someone getting a few bucks.
The irony is just so sweet. 😉 ]
I know – it’s called people living in Glass Houses 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auxhTFf24BQ
There is nothing bannable about the union with coal miners in it paying for a pro-coal mining case. Labor is over controlled by the leadership of the unions. There are too many people, with looking for a career in the Labor party as a reason for their union career, in leadership of the unions. The individual members of the Labor party should have 100% of the votes for the leadership of the Labor Party. A bill should be passed to mandate individual member control of all political parties (probably next time the Labor party does not have a majority in the HoR).
[I propose a motion to move past this ridiculous and immature waste of time by simply ignoring pointless posts, particularly Frank’s.]
So much for their so called democracy the Greens espouse 🙂
And Frank ignores the lot. Classic.
[I propose a motion to move past this ridiculous and immature waste of time by simply ignoring pointless posts, particularly Frank’s.]
I move to omit the words ” Frank’s” and insert “particularly anyone who tries to stifle debate or anyone who cannot be bothered to argue”.
[And Frank ignores the lot. Classic.]
If you despise the ALP so much, do us all a favour and join your beloved Greens – we won’t miss you – honest 🙂
[Labor is over controlled by the leadership of the unions.]
That’s why they were booing Gillard at the ACTU Congress no doubt.
The use of the word gate, as a suffix, to denote a scandal should be banned. Nixon was evil and responsible for many things.
[ Labor is over controlled by the leadership of the unions.
That’s why they were booing Gillard at the ACTU Congress no doubt.]
It’s funny how the Greens believe their own mythology that they don’t realise that there CAN be dissent in the ALP.
[If you despise the ALP so much]
Clear baiting based on my previous post. Ignores the lot.
[Clear baiting based on my previous post. Ignores the lot.]
I’m stating a fact 🙂 But it seems you cannot accept a valid criticism from a fellow ALP Member.
To repeat:
I think Frank keeps forgetting i’m a Labor supporter at heart who votes Green/viable socially progressive third party of the time, to keep Labor on its toes and remind them they cant go too far to the right at the expense of the left.
[I think Frank keeps forgetting i’m a Labor supporter at heart who votes Green/viable socially progressive third party of the time, to keep Labor on its toes and remind them they cant go too far to the right at the expense of the left.]
AKA a Turncoat who isn’t welcome by people who are ALP Supporters through Thick & THin – it’s called Party Loyalty – it’s like being part pregnant – you either are, or you’re not.
[That’s why they were booing Gillard at the ACTU Congress no doubt.]
Adam,
Have you heard anything about Sharon Burrow taking over Bob Debus’s seat at the next election?
EVERYBODY LOVES BOB!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25611269-29277,00.html
1424
That was not the part of the leadership I was talking about. It was people lower down than the high leadership who control half the votes at the ALP conventions and thus the leadership and thus preselections. The delegates to party conferences should be elected by the members on a one vote one value PR basis.
Oops
I forgot to thank William for providing this facility, and also all those posters who were into discussing very interesting things in a less nasty manner.
Psephos
Pls see mine @ 1834 – thank you for you posts, generally been excellently erudite and stimulating.
[AKA a Turncoat who isn’t welcome by people who are ALP Supporters through Thick & THin – it’s called Party Loyalty – it’s like being part pregnant – you either are, or you’re not.]
No, that’s called stupidity.
I’d argue the party was a Turncoat to why the party started – to oppose the conservatives. Now they’re just conservative lite.
And it’s also called intolerance.
And you don’t speak on behalf of the millions of Labor supporters either.
1433
Pre selections within the Labor party are generally controlled by the local vote.
For example, in the lead up to the last election, only two seats (that I can recall) went to the State delegate elected committee for arbitration.
Usually, the local vote is the decider. It is only when it is too close to call, or a candidate is being deliberately obnoxious, that it goes to the committee.
They’re basically just used as a tie breaker.
And leadership is controlled by the parliamentary party, which is the case (I believe) in all parties.
Boerwar: 1834?
Boerwar
I run a discussion site for an entirely different topic. But the most boring, ho hum thing is people who make a big deal about taking their bat and ball and going home.
If you do not like it here goodbye. If you want to linger and gain sympathy for your view stay.
[I’d argue the party was a Turncoat to why the party started – to oppose the conservatives. Now they’re just conservative lite.]
No, it’s called Political Reality – if we proposed Radical Legislation or policies we would be deemed Unelectable – remember it is the Kath & Kims who decide elections, nolt political idealogues.
There are a lot of posters carrying on like complete tossers over the last couple of days. They should grow up and either stay away from the site or get back to basics.
Possum has been busy
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
Frank , so you hate the greens, can’t you give it a rest.
Luke: No. I’m not aware she has any connection with that area. If Debus is going to retire Labor will need a strong local candidate.
The ALP was actually founded in support of three principles: White Australia, compulsory arbitration and high tariffs. I’m not sure we’d win many votes on that platform today.
[Frank , so you hate the greens, can’t you give it a rest.]
It goes both ways – I will not sit idly by at let these so called bastions of political purity attack the ALP without complaint and exposing their complete and utter hypocricy in Bob Brown befgging for donations to save his political skin when he attacks Rudd for accepting a duly declared Ute.
[No, it’s called Political Reality – if we proposed Radical Legislation or policies we would be deemed Unelectable – remember it is the Kath & Kims who decide elections, nolt political idealogues.]
Usually Labor are voted out due to an ill economy. Dunstan, Whitlam, they weren’t voted out for their social policies (Dunstan wasn’t voted out at all). I don’t ever recall a Labor government being voted out for being too socially “radical”.
But you believe what you want.
whoops 1384
[attacks Rudd for accepting a duly declared Ute.]
Which Green attacked Rudd for accepting a Ute? Or are you spinning tales again?
One of the reasons I was asking about the tax implications of these personal donations to Bob Brown is whether they are actually taxable. If so, then Brown would need to raise probably $400k plus in order to clear the debt and pay his tax liability (assuming he’s on the top margimnal rate).
Does anyone know how these donations will be handled taxwise?